First held at the Respawn Game Developer Conference in Cologne in 2013

1. Where do we go from here?
Outlook on the (potential) Future
of the German Games Industry
Ralf C. Adam
Virgin Lands GmbH

2. Introduction

3. • Ralf C. Adam
• Managing Director - Virgin Lands 3D Graphics & Animation
• >29 years old
• One admiable wife, two cute daughters, one crazy dog
• >20 years in the Games Industry
• Contributed to >60 games
• Tutor at Games Academy in Berlin & Frankfurt
• Hobbys: Movies, Games, Gadgets, Soccer, Karaoke
About myself

5. Now, what‘s the Status Quo?
German studio and publisher
landscape in 2013

6. • One big traditional publisher
• Handful of mid-sized publishers
• Two AAA studios
• Approx. less than ten big(ger) independent
game developers
• Handful of big browser games studios (going mobile)
• Handful of big(ger) mobile studios
• Growing number of >10 people indie developers
German Companies in 2013

7. So where do we go from here?
Ten predictions (that will most likely
prove to be total nonsense ;-))

8. The rise of theThe rise of theThe rise of theThe rise of the
Browser GamesBrowser GamesBrowser GamesBrowser Games
Genre has comeGenre has comeGenre has comeGenre has come
to an endto an endto an endto an end
The Hall of
Prophecy
Prophecy #1

9. • Not “Browser Games” as a a platform, but…
• Asynchronous Gameplay
• Multiple logins every day for a couple of minutes
• Slow game progress
• Hardcore community
• Browser as a platform to access games will
continue to exist but with other type of games
Definition of „Browser Games Genre“

10. A brief history of the Browser Games Genre
GalaxyWars
2001
OGame
2002
Imperion
2012
Die Stämme
2003
Travian
2004
Ikariam
2008
Forge of Empires
2012
MonstersGame
2005
BiteFight
2006
Gladiatus
2007
Shakes&Fidget
2010

11. Recently shut down Browser Games

12. • The genre is saturated
• The genre has “cloned” itself to death
• The players of this genre have moved to mobile
• The “WoW syndrome”: you play a MMO
you like for years and don’t wanna switch
• User acquisition has become ridiculously
expensive
• You can’t grow your market nor audience
through cross-selling (ask Zynga)
All things must come to an end…

13. There won't be aThere won't be aThere won't be aThere won't be a
new big "new big "new big "new big "WoWWoWWoWWoW""""
any time soonany time soonany time soonany time soon
The Hall of
Prophecy
Prophecy #2

14. • Dev is too expensive – even for the biggest publisher
• Who is willing to finance another potential +$200 Mio
grave at the moment? EA? Ubisoft? Take 2?
• Which of the ones right now in dev really has the
potential to steal the crown?
• Similarity to the Browser Games Genre: no innovation,
only clones
• Why switch to another game after 9 years WoW?
• More likely: “smaller” MMO’s for niches
Wait a sec – no more MMO‘s?

15. Publishers willPublishers willPublishers willPublishers will
continue tocontinue tocontinue tocontinue to
vanish and losevanish and losevanish and losevanish and lose
their meaningtheir meaningtheir meaningtheir meaning
The Hall of
Prophecy
Prophecy #3

16. “We recognised that we are stan-
ding on a burning platform. It's an
oil rig in the middle of the sea,
and it's exploding. You can stay or
you can hold our noses and jump. At least
that way, you have a shot.”
Peter Moore, COO - EA

17. • Well known problem in Germany for many years
• There’s never been a big publisher for more than
a decade here
• Different to France (Ubi, Infogrames) or UK
• Only one big left right now: Koch/Deepsilver
• But even the big ones are struggling these days
• Reasons: Digital Distribution, Steam, Mobile, F2P,
Browser Games, Big Budget failures…
Where have all my publishers gone?

18. There will be lessThere will be lessThere will be lessThere will be less
big budget AAAbig budget AAAbig budget AAAbig budget AAA
blockbuster titlesblockbuster titlesblockbuster titlesblockbuster titles
in the futurein the futurein the futurein the future
Prophecy #4
The Hall of
Prophecy

19. • Fewer and fewer big publishers (not only in Germany)
• The remaining ones are highly risk-averse
• One $200 Mio failure can mean the end
• Each publisher finances less AAA devs
• And if they do: sequel + internal team
• As an independent AAA dev studio: where do you go?
• Overall: Similar situation as in the movie industry
• But will we see Mid-Budget games return?
Less publishers, less risk = less titles

20. “There’s eventually going to be an
implosion, or a big meltdown…
where three or four or maybe even
a half-dozen mega-budget movies
are going to go crashing into the ground, and
that’s going to change the paradigm.”
Steven Spielberg

21. The marketThe marketThe marketThe market
will get even morewill get even morewill get even morewill get even more
fracturedfracturedfracturedfractured over theover theover theover the
next yearsnext yearsnext yearsnext years
The Hall of
Prophecy
Prophecy #5

22. Where do you want to go today?

23. • Cross-Platform is overrated
• It wasn‘t born by Game Design but by Publisher needs
• We will see different types of games on different platforms
• Do I really want to play „Angry Birds“ on my XBox,
PC or Oculus Rift?
• Is „Call of Duty“ really the right match for my iPhone?
• Do I really want to play just one game and access it
with all my different devices all time time?
• Isn‘t that mono-directional way of thinking kind of
„Old School“?
Different platforms = different types of Games

24. The time ofThe time ofThe time ofThe time of
the clone warsthe clone warsthe clone warsthe clone wars
will be overwill be overwill be overwill be over
soonsoonsoonsoon
The Hall of
Prophecy
Prophecy #6

25. How many farms can you build?

26. • Like stated before: the BG genre has already cloned
itself to death
• As long as new MMO’s try to copy WoW they will
continue to fail
• (Revenue) Metrics driven (Game) Design is broken
• Minecraft and the “Indie revolution” were just
the beginning
• We will see a new Golden Age of Game Design
A new dawn of innovative game ideas

27. We will seeWe will seeWe will seeWe will see
new stars risenew stars risenew stars risenew stars rise
(and maybe fall)(and maybe fall)(and maybe fall)(and maybe fall)
in a year timein a year timein a year timein a year time
cyclecyclecyclecycle
The Hall of
Prophecy
Prophecy #7

28. Need proof?

29. Gemany‘s next Idol?

30. “Even as a developer, you invent
something great – Call of Duty – you
want to make Call of Duty five, six,
and seven, you don't want to have to
put lightning in a bottle twice, three times.”
Ed Fries

31. The next bigThe next bigThe next bigThe next big
bang will be bornbang will be bornbang will be bornbang will be born
in a nichein a nichein a nichein a niche
(again…)(again…)(again…)(again…)
The Hall of
Prophecy
Prophecy #8

32. Never listen to the „Experts“…
“The RPG genre is dead”
Publisher Wisdom 1998

33. Never listen to the „Experts“…

34. Never listen to the „Experts“…
“Shooters don’t work on console!”
Publisher Wisdom 2002

35. Never listen to the „Experts“…

36. Never listen to the „Experts“…
“MMO is a small niche market!”
Publisher Wisdom 2004

37. Never listen to the „Experts“…

38. Never listen to the „Experts“…
“The PC genre is dead!”
Publisher Wisdom 2006

39. Never listen to the „Experts“…

40. Never listen to the „Experts“…
“You can’t make money with F2P!”
Publisher Wisdom 2008

41. Never listen to the „Experts“…

42. Never listen to the „Experts“…
“Mobile is a niche – Facebook is the future!”
Publisher Wisdom 2009

43. Never listen to the „Experts“…

44. Never listen to the „Experts“…
“Sandbox games don’t do well!”
Publisher Wisdom 2011

45. Never listen to the „Experts“…

46. Never listen to the „Experts“…
“There’s no market for episodic games!”
Publisher Wisdom 2012

47. Never listen to the „Experts“…

48. F2P is neitherF2P is neitherF2P is neitherF2P is neither
dead, nor will itdead, nor will itdead, nor will itdead, nor will it
become the onlybecome the onlybecome the onlybecome the only
business modelbusiness modelbusiness modelbusiness model
The Hall of
Prophecy
Prophecy #9

49. How critics see F2P

50. Plants vs. Zombies 2 = F2P

51. • Not all Genres do well with F2P
• Acceptance problems
• Hard for parents to control
• People are still willing to pay >$20 (see Kickstarter)
• F2P/Freemium/Microtransaction Models are
one part of the future…
• …but so are all other models
• Maybe we will even see new models such as
Game Channels with monthly subscription fees
Diversity or uniformity?

52. “But we know that also the free-
to-play mechanics have a certain
interruptive quality which can
spoil the play a little bit. So there
are things on the ends of the spectrum
where it's very obvious. Skyrim should not be
free-to-play. We get that. It would really ruin
it if we don't get that.”
Jesse Schell

53. The hour ofThe hour ofThe hour ofThe hour of
episodic gamingepisodic gamingepisodic gamingepisodic gaming
may have finallymay have finallymay have finallymay have finally
comecomecomecome
The Hall of
Prophecy
Prophecy #10

54. That was just the beginning

55. “Cable television is much more
adventurous than film nowadays.
I think eventually the Lincolns will
go away and they are going to be
on television”
George Lucas

56. TV Shows

57. Learning from TV – seriously?
• Less risky
• High quality
• Better re-use of assets
• Can be developed further and faster with feedback
from the audience/the customer
• Perfect for storytelling
• Perfect for casual 10 – 15 minutes a day
• Maybe even game channels one day?

58. So what the heck should I do?

59. Be different!
• Have a clear strategy
• Focus: You can do anything – but you can‘t do everything
• Not the time to found a AAA studio in Germany right now
(unless you have infinte amount of money)
• Not the time to found a publisher either
• Find your niche
• Find your business model
• Find your distribution channel
• Be innovative
• And may the force be with you – always!

60. RALF C. ADAM
Managing Director
Virgin Lands GmbH
adam@virgin-lands.com