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Complementarity of value chain analysis,
consumption patterns and nutrition in the
design of sustainable, effective and
efficient food-system-based interventions
Dr Paula Dominguez-Salas
RVC-LCIRAH / ILRI
Source:	
  ING	
  
Pablo Alarcón
Barbara Häsler
Jonathan Rushton
Eric Fèvre
Delia Grace
Elaine Ferguson
Laura Cornelsen
James Akoko
Patrick Muinde
Maurice Karani
Paula Dominguez-Salas
Douglas Angogo
Judith Mwangangi
Gideon Mwangi
Emma Osoro
+ Urban Zoo team…
Key micronutrients supplied by animal-
source foods (ASFs)
Nutrient	
  	
   ASF	
  source	
   Consequences	
  of	
  deficits	
   Comments	
  
Vitamin	
  A	
   Dairy,	
  liver,	
  eggs	
   Growth	
  faltering,	
  impaired	
  
development,	
  blindness,	
  impaired	
  
immune	
  system,	
  increased	
  
mortality.	
  
Preformed	
  vitamin	
  A	
  (reBnol	
  and	
  reBnol	
  esters)	
  -­‐	
  almost	
  
exclusive	
  of	
  ASFs.	
  Plants	
  contain	
  pro-­‐vitamin	
  A	
  
carotenoids,	
  less	
  bioavailable.	
  
Iron	
   Meat,	
  fish	
  (Heme	
  iron-­‐15-­‐35%	
  
absorpBon)	
  
Dairy,	
  eggs	
  (Non-­‐heme	
  iron	
  
-­‐2-­‐20%	
  absorpBon)	
  
Anaemia;	
  Impaired	
  growth,	
  immune	
  
funcBon,	
  cogniBve	
  development	
  and	
  
school	
  performance	
  in	
  children;	
  
lowered	
  work	
  capacity	
  and	
  maternal	
  
mortality	
  in	
  adults.	
  
AbsorpBon	
  of	
  non-­‐heme	
  iron	
  is	
  inhibited	
  by	
  phyBc	
  acid	
  
and	
  fiber	
  of	
  cereal	
  diets.	
  	
  
Heme-­‐iron	
  promotes	
  absorpBon	
  of	
  non-­‐heme	
  iron	
  (meat	
  
addiBon	
  to	
  a	
  legume/cereal	
  diet	
  can	
  double	
  the	
  iron	
  
absorbed,	
  contribuBng	
  to	
  anaemia	
  prevenBon).	
  
Calcium	
   Dairy	
  is	
  the	
  major	
  source	
  
Fish	
  (with	
  bones)	
  
NutriBonal	
  rickets.	
  	
   AbsorpBon	
  of	
  calcium	
  is	
  inhibited	
  by	
  oxalates,	
  phytates	
  
and	
  fiber	
  of	
  cereal	
  diets.	
  	
  
The	
  high	
  calcium	
  (and	
  casein)	
  content	
  in	
  milk	
  inhibits	
  
absorpBon	
  non-­‐heme	
  iron.	
  
Vitamin	
  B2	
   Dairy,	
  meat	
  and	
  organs,	
  eggs,	
  fish	
   Stunted	
  growth,	
  skin	
  lesions,	
  corneal	
  
vascularisaBon,	
  cheilosis,	
  angular	
  
stomaBBs,	
  glossiBs,	
  photophobia,	
  
anemia,	
  neuropathy.	
  	
  
Vitamins	
  A	
  and	
  B2	
  are	
  both	
  needed	
  for	
  iron	
  mobilizaBon	
  
and	
  hemoglobin	
  synthesis;	
  thus	
  supplementaBon	
  with	
  iron	
  
alone	
  can	
  be	
  unsuccessful	
  to	
  treat	
  anemia	
  if	
  these	
  other	
  
nutrients	
  are	
  deficient	
  (22).	
  
Zinc	
   Meat	
  and	
  organs,	
  fish.	
  
Eggs,	
  dairy	
  to	
  a	
  lesser	
  extent	
  
Pregnancy	
  complicaBons,	
  low	
  birth	
  
weight,	
  impaired	
  immune	
  funcBon,	
  
mortality,	
  growth	
  faltering.	
  	
  
ASFs	
  have	
  higher	
  bioavailability	
  than	
  plant	
  sources.	
  	
  
Protein	
  increases	
  zinc	
  absorpBon,	
  calcium	
  and	
  phytates	
  
and	
  fiber	
  may	
  inhibit.	
  
V i t a m i n	
  
B12	
  
	
  	
  
All	
  ASFs	
  -­‐only	
  in	
  ASF	
  with	
  the	
  
excepBon	
  of	
  some	
  algae	
  
MegaloblasBc	
  anemia,	
  
demyelinaBng	
  disorder	
  of	
  the	
  
central	
  nervous	
  system.	
  
B12	
  is	
  bound	
  to	
  ASF	
  proteins	
  and	
  is	
  released	
  for	
  absorpBon	
  
in	
  the	
  stomach	
  with	
  the	
  intervenBon	
  of	
  gastric	
  acid,	
  which	
  
producBon	
  may	
  be	
  impaired	
  in	
  elderly,	
  leading	
  to	
  B12	
  
deficiency.	
  
Modified	
  from:	
  Randolph	
  2007	
  
Objectives
Hypothesis: There is an association between consumers’ access to and use
of different food sources, in particular livestock value chains, and their
nutritional status
	
  
Methods: Household survey
205	
  low-­‐income	
  
households	
  
(53 % monthly income
<5000 KES)	
  
	
  
HOUSEHOLD	
  SURVEY	
  
	
  
•  Socioeconomic	
  characterisBcs	
  and	
  gender	
  aspects	
  
•  Maternal	
  and	
  child	
  nutriBon:	
  
•  Anthropometry	
  
•  24-­‐h	
  recall	
  
•  Care	
  pracBces	
  
	
  
•  ConsumpBon	
  pa]erns	
  of	
  ASF	
  
•  ASFs	
  consumpBon	
  (what,	
  when,	
  why,	
  who)	
  
•  Expenditure	
  in	
  ASFs	
  
•  Supply	
  of	
  ASFs	
  (from	
  where	
  and	
  why)	
  
Livestock	
  value	
  
chain	
  analysis	
  
LIVESTOCK	
  VALUE	
  CHAIN	
  ANALYSIS	
  
	
  
•  Mapping	
  	
  
•  Profiles;	
  movements;	
  Bme	
  stability	
  
•  Governance	
  	
  
•  rules	
  and	
  legislaBon;	
  power	
  groups;	
  incenBves	
  and	
  
sancBons,	
  consumers’	
  needs	
  
	
  
•  Upgrading	
  
•  access	
  to	
  service;	
  experBse	
  or	
  technology;	
  
markeBng;	
  policy;	
  infrastructures;	
  barriers	
  to	
  entry	
  
•  Food	
  safety	
  risks	
  
•  DistribuBon	
  of	
  benefits	
  
•  distribuBon	
  of	
  benefits;	
  gender	
  equality;	
  losses	
  
•  Supply	
  of	
  ASFs	
  (where	
  and	
  why)	
  
Results
Malnutrition in Nairobi slumsChildren1-3years
Anaemia (gr/dL) % CI
Anaemia (<11) 74.1 68.1-80.2
Normal 25.9 19.8-31.9
Stunting (Z-
scores) %
Severe (<-3) 14.2 9.3-19.0
Moderate (<-2, >-3) 27.3 21.2-33.5
Normal (>-2) 58.5 51.7-65.3
Wasting (Z-
scores) %
Severe (<-3) 1.0 0.0-2.3
Moderate (<-2, >-3) 3.4 0.9-5.9
Normal (>-2, <+2) 90.7 86.7-94.7
Overweight (>+2) 4.9 1.9-7.9
Nonpregnantwomenofreproductiveage
Anaemia (gr/dL) % CI
Anaemia (<12) 25.9 19.9-31.9
Normal 74.1 68.1-80.2
BMI (kg/m2) % CI
Severe (<16) 1.0 0.0-2.3
Moderate (16 -16.9) 1.0 0.0-2.3
Mild (17-18.4) 6.3 3.0-9.7
Normal (18.5-25) 62.9 56.3-69.6
Overweight
(25.1-30) 18.5 13.2-23.9
Obese (>30) 10.2 6.1-14.4
Mean CI
MDDSW 4.0 3.9-4.3
Target	
  populaQon	
  
Results
Assessment of consumer patterns,
preferences and demand factors
0%	
  
20%	
  
40%	
  
60%	
  
80%	
  
100%	
  
taste	
  
nutriBon	
  
price	
  
tradiBon	
  
access	
  risk	
  dis	
  
hygiene	
  
product	
  pres	
  
don't	
  know	
  	
  
Sheep	
  /goat	
  fresh	
  milk	
  
eat	
  (n=3)	
   not	
  eat	
  (n=186)	
  
0%	
  
20%	
  
40%	
  
60%	
  
80%	
  
100%	
  
taste	
  
nutriBon	
  
price	
  
tradiBon	
  
access	
  risk	
  dis	
  
hygiene	
  
product	
  
pres	
  
don't	
  
know	
  	
  
Black	
  pudding	
  
eat	
  (n=53)	
   not	
  eat	
  (n=144)	
  
0%	
  
20%	
  
40%	
  
60%	
  
80%	
  
100%	
  
taste	
  
nutriBon	
  
price	
  
tradiBon	
  
access	
  risk	
  dis	
  
hygiene	
  
prod	
  pres	
  
don't	
  know	
  
Beef	
  meat	
  	
  
eat	
  (n=163)	
   not	
  eat	
  (n=37)	
  
ASF own- and cross-price elasticities
ASF	
  own-­‐/	
  
cross-­‐	
  price	
  
elasQciQes	
  
Beef	
  meat Offal Processed	
  
meat
Fresh	
  
milk
Fermented	
  
milk
Eggs Fish Other	
  
meat
Broiler	
  
chicken
Beef	
  meat
-­‐0.95** -­‐0.38** 0.22 -­‐0.19* 0.18 -­‐0.15 -­‐0.30** 0.27 -­‐0.01
Offal
-­‐0.56** -­‐1.62** 0.09 0.07 0.43 0.52** -­‐0.03 0.17 -­‐0.24
Processed	
  meat
0.5 0.16 -­‐1.34* 0.06 0.01 0.93** -­‐0.09 0.82* -­‐0.24
Fresh	
  milk
0.009 0.11* -­‐0.003 -­‐1.08** 0.15 0.03 0.1** -­‐0.09 0.15*
Fermented	
  milk
0.47 0.65 0.03 0.85** -­‐2.4** -­‐0.19 0.09 0.44 -­‐0.06
Eggs
-­‐0.26 0.76** 0.88** -­‐0.04 -­‐0.25 0.22 -­‐0.14 0.82* 0.20
Fish
-­‐0.20* 0.03 -­‐0.04 0.38** 0.03 -­‐0.02 -­‐1.09** -­‐0.44** 0.21
Other	
  meat
0.29 0.14 0.41* -­‐0.19 0.21 0.44* -­‐0.49* -­‐0.81* 0.22
Broiler	
  chicken
-0.05 -0.19 -0.15 0.07 -0.06 -0.14 0.16 0.19 -­‐1.90**
Expenditure	
  
elasQciQes
1.35** 1.38** 0.81** 0.82** 0.28 1.17** 0.52** 0.98** 1.47**
HHs	
  allocated	
  on	
  average	
  42%	
  of	
  their	
  food	
  expenditure	
  to	
  ASFs,	
  of	
  which	
  52%	
  were	
  allocated	
  
to	
  dairy	
  products	
  and	
  13%	
  to	
  beef.	
  
*significant	
  at	
  least	
  p<0.1;	
  **p<0.05	
  
Results
Nutrient	
  %	
  covered	
  
by	
  the	
  
recommendaQons
Vit	
  C B1 B2 B3 B6 Fol B12 Vit	
  A Ca Fe Zn
Cost/day	
  
[KES]
N
Best	
  possible	
  
individual	
  diet
273.4 166.8 238.5 145.5 192 220.7 869.9 847.7 100 81 427.6 229.2 11
No	
  recommendaQons 9 69.3 79.3 54 62.1 33 336.1 30.2 12 21.7 150.6 80.1 3
1.	
  7p/wk	
  Fruit 99.6 70.7 81.9 57 79.8 41.4 336.1 46 14.2 21.7 150.6 87.1 5
2.	
  Rec	
  1	
  +	
  28p/wk	
  
Vegetables
186.2 81.9 91.9 64.4 98.8 50 336.1 130.9 18.9 24.3 154.2 91.9 7
3.	
  Rec	
  1	
  +2	
  +	
  7	
  p/wk	
  
Pulses
193.9 114.5 94.8 64.4 109.5 130.5 336.1 130.9 24.8 30 163.5 91.9 8
4.	
  Rec	
  1	
  +	
  2+	
  3	
  +	
  28	
  p/
wk	
  Dairy
198.4 116 144.4 64.4 109.7 132.3 379.9 177.5 81.6 30 176.1 125.4 9
5.	
  Rec	
  1	
  +	
  2+	
  3	
  +	
  4+	
  21	
  
p/wk	
  ASF
198.4 116 148.7 70.8 114.4 132.3 404.5 177.9 81.8 34.1 186.6 141.6 10
6.	
  Rec	
  1	
  +	
  2+	
  3	
  +	
  4+	
  21	
  
p/wk	
  ASF	
  (7	
  egg-­‐	
  4	
  red	
  
meat-­‐	
  4	
  poultry-­‐	
  3	
  
sausage)
198.4 126.8 172.3 89.8 140.7 146.4 1273.6 227.2 83.6 46.6 300 172.9 10
Population-based dietary recommendations
for women based on ASFs
-  Optifood modelling predicts which food-based recommendations can ensure dietary
adequacy for most nutrients (>65% or 70% RNI=adequate)
-  Times/week vs portion size considerations
-  The cost relative to incomes to improve dietary adequacy is high
Specific objectives
Dairy
ConsumpQon	
  	
  
	
  
98.5%	
  of	
  HHs	
  
5.5	
  Bmes/week/HH	
  
Nutri&on:	
  68%	
  
Taste:	
  65%	
  
Why	
  NOT	
  
	
  
Access:	
  73%	
  
Price:	
  40%	
  
Why	
  YES	
  
	
   ElasQcity	
  
	
  
-­‐1.08	
  own-­‐price	
  
Value	
  chain	
  issues	
  
	
  •  Key	
  retailers:	
  
•  Milk	
  bars	
  (raw,	
  informal	
  traders),	
  
•  Kiosks	
  (mainly	
  processed,	
  large	
  
companies),	
  
•  Slum	
  producers	
  (raw).	
  
•  In	
  some	
  slums,	
  factories	
  sell	
  milk	
  about	
  
to	
  expire	
  at	
  a	
  cheaper	
  price.	
  
•  	
  Mainly	
  women-­‐dominated	
  chain.	
  	
  
•  Processed	
  milk	
  is	
  controlled	
  by	
  few	
  large	
  
companies.	
  	
  
•  Important	
  wastage	
  in	
  large	
  companies	
  
•  Informal	
  sector:	
  Food	
  safety	
  risks	
  due	
  to	
  
adulteraBon,	
  lack	
  of	
  cold	
  chain,	
  inadequate	
  
transport,	
  poor	
  hygiene,	
  anBmicrobial	
  use,	
  
lack	
  of	
  licensing,	
  regulaBon	
  and	
  training.	
  
DEMAND	
  
SUPPLY	
  
Results
Steps forward
•  Finalise LVC-nutrition analysis
•  Scale up our primary data collection
•  Use the experience from this pilot to draft guide on
methodology to detect inefficiencies & design studies
•  Develop further gender issues, food choice, confounders
for malnutrition, matching of retailers, etc.
•  Stablish the best indicators to inform the design of
sustainable interventions to test in the field
•  Potential of value chain analysis across animal and
non-animal value chains
LVC: good potential for safe & sustainable nutrient supply in slums
(↓ price, ↑ distribution, ↑ safety, product development, etc.).
Key messages	
  
The cost to improve dietary adequacy is likely to
exceed average household food expenditure	
  
ASFs contribute substantially
to dietary adequacy	
  
Double burden
of malnutrition is
highly prevalent
in the Nairobi
slums	
  
Taste & nutrition
also influence
food choice ->
nutrition
education?	
  
Consumer
choice largely
driven by price
& accessibility	
  
For certain MN (e.g.iron) additional
strategies might be required	
  
DEMAND/SUPPLY	
  for	
  each	
  ASF	
  
THANK YOU!!
Funding:	
  A4NH,	
  ILRI,	
  LCIRAH,	
  Urban	
  Zoonoses	
  	
  
Field	
  support:	
  APHRC,	
  	
  MoH,	
  HKI	
  	
  
Photobooks:	
  KEMRI/Micronutrient	
  IniBaBve	
  
CSpro	
  and	
  ODK	
  databases:	
  ILRI	
  

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Complementarity of value chain analysis, consumption patterns and nutrition in the design of sustainable, effective and efficient food-system-based interventions

  • 1. Complementarity of value chain analysis, consumption patterns and nutrition in the design of sustainable, effective and efficient food-system-based interventions Dr Paula Dominguez-Salas RVC-LCIRAH / ILRI Source:  ING  
  • 2. Pablo Alarcón Barbara Häsler Jonathan Rushton Eric Fèvre Delia Grace Elaine Ferguson Laura Cornelsen James Akoko Patrick Muinde Maurice Karani Paula Dominguez-Salas Douglas Angogo Judith Mwangangi Gideon Mwangi Emma Osoro + Urban Zoo team…
  • 3. Key micronutrients supplied by animal- source foods (ASFs) Nutrient     ASF  source   Consequences  of  deficits   Comments   Vitamin  A   Dairy,  liver,  eggs   Growth  faltering,  impaired   development,  blindness,  impaired   immune  system,  increased   mortality.   Preformed  vitamin  A  (reBnol  and  reBnol  esters)  -­‐  almost   exclusive  of  ASFs.  Plants  contain  pro-­‐vitamin  A   carotenoids,  less  bioavailable.   Iron   Meat,  fish  (Heme  iron-­‐15-­‐35%   absorpBon)   Dairy,  eggs  (Non-­‐heme  iron   -­‐2-­‐20%  absorpBon)   Anaemia;  Impaired  growth,  immune   funcBon,  cogniBve  development  and   school  performance  in  children;   lowered  work  capacity  and  maternal   mortality  in  adults.   AbsorpBon  of  non-­‐heme  iron  is  inhibited  by  phyBc  acid   and  fiber  of  cereal  diets.     Heme-­‐iron  promotes  absorpBon  of  non-­‐heme  iron  (meat   addiBon  to  a  legume/cereal  diet  can  double  the  iron   absorbed,  contribuBng  to  anaemia  prevenBon).   Calcium   Dairy  is  the  major  source   Fish  (with  bones)   NutriBonal  rickets.     AbsorpBon  of  calcium  is  inhibited  by  oxalates,  phytates   and  fiber  of  cereal  diets.     The  high  calcium  (and  casein)  content  in  milk  inhibits   absorpBon  non-­‐heme  iron.   Vitamin  B2   Dairy,  meat  and  organs,  eggs,  fish   Stunted  growth,  skin  lesions,  corneal   vascularisaBon,  cheilosis,  angular   stomaBBs,  glossiBs,  photophobia,   anemia,  neuropathy.     Vitamins  A  and  B2  are  both  needed  for  iron  mobilizaBon   and  hemoglobin  synthesis;  thus  supplementaBon  with  iron   alone  can  be  unsuccessful  to  treat  anemia  if  these  other   nutrients  are  deficient  (22).   Zinc   Meat  and  organs,  fish.   Eggs,  dairy  to  a  lesser  extent   Pregnancy  complicaBons,  low  birth   weight,  impaired  immune  funcBon,   mortality,  growth  faltering.     ASFs  have  higher  bioavailability  than  plant  sources.     Protein  increases  zinc  absorpBon,  calcium  and  phytates   and  fiber  may  inhibit.   V i t a m i n   B12       All  ASFs  -­‐only  in  ASF  with  the   excepBon  of  some  algae   MegaloblasBc  anemia,   demyelinaBng  disorder  of  the   central  nervous  system.   B12  is  bound  to  ASF  proteins  and  is  released  for  absorpBon   in  the  stomach  with  the  intervenBon  of  gastric  acid,  which   producBon  may  be  impaired  in  elderly,  leading  to  B12   deficiency.   Modified  from:  Randolph  2007  
  • 4. Objectives Hypothesis: There is an association between consumers’ access to and use of different food sources, in particular livestock value chains, and their nutritional status  
  • 5. Methods: Household survey 205  low-­‐income   households   (53 % monthly income <5000 KES)     HOUSEHOLD  SURVEY     •  Socioeconomic  characterisBcs  and  gender  aspects   •  Maternal  and  child  nutriBon:   •  Anthropometry   •  24-­‐h  recall   •  Care  pracBces     •  ConsumpBon  pa]erns  of  ASF   •  ASFs  consumpBon  (what,  when,  why,  who)   •  Expenditure  in  ASFs   •  Supply  of  ASFs  (from  where  and  why)  
  • 6. Livestock  value   chain  analysis   LIVESTOCK  VALUE  CHAIN  ANALYSIS     •  Mapping     •  Profiles;  movements;  Bme  stability   •  Governance     •  rules  and  legislaBon;  power  groups;  incenBves  and   sancBons,  consumers’  needs     •  Upgrading   •  access  to  service;  experBse  or  technology;   markeBng;  policy;  infrastructures;  barriers  to  entry   •  Food  safety  risks   •  DistribuBon  of  benefits   •  distribuBon  of  benefits;  gender  equality;  losses   •  Supply  of  ASFs  (where  and  why)  
  • 8. Malnutrition in Nairobi slumsChildren1-3years Anaemia (gr/dL) % CI Anaemia (<11) 74.1 68.1-80.2 Normal 25.9 19.8-31.9 Stunting (Z- scores) % Severe (<-3) 14.2 9.3-19.0 Moderate (<-2, >-3) 27.3 21.2-33.5 Normal (>-2) 58.5 51.7-65.3 Wasting (Z- scores) % Severe (<-3) 1.0 0.0-2.3 Moderate (<-2, >-3) 3.4 0.9-5.9 Normal (>-2, <+2) 90.7 86.7-94.7 Overweight (>+2) 4.9 1.9-7.9 Nonpregnantwomenofreproductiveage Anaemia (gr/dL) % CI Anaemia (<12) 25.9 19.9-31.9 Normal 74.1 68.1-80.2 BMI (kg/m2) % CI Severe (<16) 1.0 0.0-2.3 Moderate (16 -16.9) 1.0 0.0-2.3 Mild (17-18.4) 6.3 3.0-9.7 Normal (18.5-25) 62.9 56.3-69.6 Overweight (25.1-30) 18.5 13.2-23.9 Obese (>30) 10.2 6.1-14.4 Mean CI MDDSW 4.0 3.9-4.3 Target  populaQon  
  • 10. Assessment of consumer patterns, preferences and demand factors 0%   20%   40%   60%   80%   100%   taste   nutriBon   price   tradiBon   access  risk  dis   hygiene   product  pres   don't  know     Sheep  /goat  fresh  milk   eat  (n=3)   not  eat  (n=186)   0%   20%   40%   60%   80%   100%   taste   nutriBon   price   tradiBon   access  risk  dis   hygiene   product   pres   don't   know     Black  pudding   eat  (n=53)   not  eat  (n=144)   0%   20%   40%   60%   80%   100%   taste   nutriBon   price   tradiBon   access  risk  dis   hygiene   prod  pres   don't  know   Beef  meat     eat  (n=163)   not  eat  (n=37)  
  • 11. ASF own- and cross-price elasticities ASF  own-­‐/   cross-­‐  price   elasQciQes   Beef  meat Offal Processed   meat Fresh   milk Fermented   milk Eggs Fish Other   meat Broiler   chicken Beef  meat -­‐0.95** -­‐0.38** 0.22 -­‐0.19* 0.18 -­‐0.15 -­‐0.30** 0.27 -­‐0.01 Offal -­‐0.56** -­‐1.62** 0.09 0.07 0.43 0.52** -­‐0.03 0.17 -­‐0.24 Processed  meat 0.5 0.16 -­‐1.34* 0.06 0.01 0.93** -­‐0.09 0.82* -­‐0.24 Fresh  milk 0.009 0.11* -­‐0.003 -­‐1.08** 0.15 0.03 0.1** -­‐0.09 0.15* Fermented  milk 0.47 0.65 0.03 0.85** -­‐2.4** -­‐0.19 0.09 0.44 -­‐0.06 Eggs -­‐0.26 0.76** 0.88** -­‐0.04 -­‐0.25 0.22 -­‐0.14 0.82* 0.20 Fish -­‐0.20* 0.03 -­‐0.04 0.38** 0.03 -­‐0.02 -­‐1.09** -­‐0.44** 0.21 Other  meat 0.29 0.14 0.41* -­‐0.19 0.21 0.44* -­‐0.49* -­‐0.81* 0.22 Broiler  chicken -0.05 -0.19 -0.15 0.07 -0.06 -0.14 0.16 0.19 -­‐1.90** Expenditure   elasQciQes 1.35** 1.38** 0.81** 0.82** 0.28 1.17** 0.52** 0.98** 1.47** HHs  allocated  on  average  42%  of  their  food  expenditure  to  ASFs,  of  which  52%  were  allocated   to  dairy  products  and  13%  to  beef.   *significant  at  least  p<0.1;  **p<0.05  
  • 13. Nutrient  %  covered   by  the   recommendaQons Vit  C B1 B2 B3 B6 Fol B12 Vit  A Ca Fe Zn Cost/day   [KES] N Best  possible   individual  diet 273.4 166.8 238.5 145.5 192 220.7 869.9 847.7 100 81 427.6 229.2 11 No  recommendaQons 9 69.3 79.3 54 62.1 33 336.1 30.2 12 21.7 150.6 80.1 3 1.  7p/wk  Fruit 99.6 70.7 81.9 57 79.8 41.4 336.1 46 14.2 21.7 150.6 87.1 5 2.  Rec  1  +  28p/wk   Vegetables 186.2 81.9 91.9 64.4 98.8 50 336.1 130.9 18.9 24.3 154.2 91.9 7 3.  Rec  1  +2  +  7  p/wk   Pulses 193.9 114.5 94.8 64.4 109.5 130.5 336.1 130.9 24.8 30 163.5 91.9 8 4.  Rec  1  +  2+  3  +  28  p/ wk  Dairy 198.4 116 144.4 64.4 109.7 132.3 379.9 177.5 81.6 30 176.1 125.4 9 5.  Rec  1  +  2+  3  +  4+  21   p/wk  ASF 198.4 116 148.7 70.8 114.4 132.3 404.5 177.9 81.8 34.1 186.6 141.6 10 6.  Rec  1  +  2+  3  +  4+  21   p/wk  ASF  (7  egg-­‐  4  red   meat-­‐  4  poultry-­‐  3   sausage) 198.4 126.8 172.3 89.8 140.7 146.4 1273.6 227.2 83.6 46.6 300 172.9 10 Population-based dietary recommendations for women based on ASFs -  Optifood modelling predicts which food-based recommendations can ensure dietary adequacy for most nutrients (>65% or 70% RNI=adequate) -  Times/week vs portion size considerations -  The cost relative to incomes to improve dietary adequacy is high
  • 15. Dairy ConsumpQon       98.5%  of  HHs   5.5  Bmes/week/HH   Nutri&on:  68%   Taste:  65%   Why  NOT     Access:  73%   Price:  40%   Why  YES     ElasQcity     -­‐1.08  own-­‐price   Value  chain  issues    •  Key  retailers:   •  Milk  bars  (raw,  informal  traders),   •  Kiosks  (mainly  processed,  large   companies),   •  Slum  producers  (raw).   •  In  some  slums,  factories  sell  milk  about   to  expire  at  a  cheaper  price.   •   Mainly  women-­‐dominated  chain.     •  Processed  milk  is  controlled  by  few  large   companies.     •  Important  wastage  in  large  companies   •  Informal  sector:  Food  safety  risks  due  to   adulteraBon,  lack  of  cold  chain,  inadequate   transport,  poor  hygiene,  anBmicrobial  use,   lack  of  licensing,  regulaBon  and  training.   DEMAND   SUPPLY  
  • 17. Steps forward •  Finalise LVC-nutrition analysis •  Scale up our primary data collection •  Use the experience from this pilot to draft guide on methodology to detect inefficiencies & design studies •  Develop further gender issues, food choice, confounders for malnutrition, matching of retailers, etc. •  Stablish the best indicators to inform the design of sustainable interventions to test in the field •  Potential of value chain analysis across animal and non-animal value chains
  • 18. LVC: good potential for safe & sustainable nutrient supply in slums (↓ price, ↑ distribution, ↑ safety, product development, etc.). Key messages   The cost to improve dietary adequacy is likely to exceed average household food expenditure   ASFs contribute substantially to dietary adequacy   Double burden of malnutrition is highly prevalent in the Nairobi slums   Taste & nutrition also influence food choice -> nutrition education?   Consumer choice largely driven by price & accessibility   For certain MN (e.g.iron) additional strategies might be required   DEMAND/SUPPLY  for  each  ASF  
  • 19. THANK YOU!! Funding:  A4NH,  ILRI,  LCIRAH,  Urban  Zoonoses     Field  support:  APHRC,    MoH,  HKI     Photobooks:  KEMRI/Micronutrient  IniBaBve   CSpro  and  ODK  databases:  ILRI