AVOIDING THE " TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS" IN SA FISHING INDUSTRY - A SIMPLIFIED VIEW AND POTENTIAL SOLUTION EMBA 15 SUB GROUP PRESENTATION AND DISCUSSION DOCUMENT

GROUP 3: EMBA 15.2
Prepared by:
MANDISA MASICHILA-
SEKGALAKANE
AMANDA BRINKMANN
BUSINESS ACUMEN
5 JULY 2013
THE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS
defined as:
INDIVIDUALS NEGLECTING THE WELL-BEING OF
SOCIETY, IN PURSUIT OF PERSONAL GAIN
EXAMPLES: OVER-FISHING AND WILDLIFE POACHING
HARDIN, G. 1968
SOURCE; DEPARTMENT OF AGRICUTURE, FORESTROY AND FISHERIES [ DAFF] Amanda Brinkmann Indigo Consulting

THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS ON THE
SA FISHING INDUSTRY
THE COMBINATION OF:
• LACK OF STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP
• NON-IMPLEMENTATION OF WWF ECOSYSTEMS APPROACH FOR FISHERIES [EAF]
• NO RESEARCH TO PLAN AND MANAGE THE FISHING ECOSYSTEM
• LEADS TO COLLAPSING FISH STOCKS
• WHICH WILL BECOME THE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS
• WITH LARGE NEGATIVE SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE SA ECONOMY
EMPLOYMENT & JOB CREATION
FOOD SECURITY
BUT INDUSTRY ON BRINK OF COLLAPSE

HOW DO WE AVOID THE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS FROM BECOMING
A REALITY WITHIN THE SA FISHING INDUSTRY?
THIS APPROACH TO RESOURCE MANAGEMENT IS CHARACTERISED BY:
• UNDERSTANDING THE WHOLE ECOSYSTEM IMPACTS WITHIN MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS
• SOCIETAL WELL-BEING OF DEPENDENT FISHING COMMUNITIES ARE INCLUDED WITHIN
MANAGEMENT ADVICE AND PRACTICE
• THE LONG-TERM ECONOMIC WELL-BEING OF THE FISHING INDUSTRY IS THE
COMMUNAL OUTCOME
• TRANSPARENT AND PARTICIPATORY MANAGEMENT STRUCTURES
• REDUCES OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
• SUFFICIENT SKILLS, CAPACITY, EQUIPMENT & FUNDING
• ROBUST SCIENTIFIC DATA COLLECTION
POINTING THE NEED FOR A PHASE 1 REDESIGN OF THE
SA FISHING INDUSTRY USING THE VIABLE SYSTEMS MODEL
Amanda Brinkmann Indigo Consulting

EMPIRCAL & ACADEMIC RESEARCH
EXTENSIVE LITERATURE REVIEWS
PRESENTATIONS BY SPECIALISTS
USING YOUTUBE AND OTHER TECHNOLOGIES
GLOBAL BEST PRACTICE CASE STUDIES
FACTUAL PROPOSITIONS, DISTILLED TO CORE VARIABLESSCENARIO PLANNING & TESTING
PEER REVIEWSS, SURVEYS, FACE TO FACE I
INTERVIEWS & TELEPHONIC/SKYPE WORK SESSIONS
DESK RESEARCH, ID & CAUSAL MECHANISMS
VSD, VSM, ACTIVITY THEORY, ET AL

COLLAPSED FISHING
STOCKSMALNUTRITION, FOOD
INSECURITY &
POVERTY
SOCIETAL, SOCIAL,
INDUSTRY DECAY
AND COLLAPSE
TRAGEDY OF THE
COMMONS
FRAGMENTED
FISHING INDUSTRY
SEEKING
INDIVIDUAL BENEFIT
& ROI
LACK OF OR WEAK
LEADERSHIP &
UNSKILLED
INSTITUTIONAL
CAPACITY
NO OR INFREQUENT
RESEARCH DATA
IRRESPONSIBLE
EXPANSION &
MANAGEMENT OF
AQUACULTURE
CURRENT REALITY = CURRENT FUTURE: SCENARIO 1 TESTING
2 OUT
7 IN
3 OUT
4 IN
6 OUT
1 IN
8 OUT
0 IN4 OUT
4 IN
2 OUT
6 IN
1 OUT
6 IN
1 OUT
6 IN
OUTCOME
DRIVER
DRIVER
OUTCOME
OUTCOME
WWF ECOSYSTEMS
APPROACH FOR
FISHERIES [EAF]
NOT
IMPLEMENTED
7 OUT
2 IN
DRIVER
OUTCOME
THE ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS INDICATES
THAT THE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS
COULD BE PREVENTED BY:
• IMPLEMENTING THE WWF ECOSYSTEMS
APPROACH FOR FISHERIES [ EAF]
• STRONG INDUSTRY LEADERSHIP
• SKILLED INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY
• ROBUST, TIMELY, USEFUL DATA
• RESPONSIBLE, COLLABORATIVE RESOURCE
MANAGEMENT
• DIVERSIFICATION OF THE FISHING
INDUSTRY
REJECTED THE NULL HYPOTHESIS

GLOBAL PESTEL ENVIRONMENT
1 A
SADC FISHING
PARTNERS
1E
COMMERCIAL
LIVE CAPTURE
1 D
AQUACULTURE
1C
RECREATIONAL
FISHING
1B SMALL-
SCALE FISHERIES
1 E 5,4,3,2
RECURSION
1 D 5,4,3,2
RECURSION
1 C 5,4,3,2
RECURSION
1 B 5,4,3,2
RECURSION
1 A 5,4,3,2
RECURSION
2
2
2
2
2
S2
SUSTAINABIL
ITY CO-ORD
TASK TEAM –
COLLECTIVE
S3 CROSS-DISCIPLINARY, INTER-
SECTORAL, INTER-GOVERNMENTAL
PUBLIC PRIVATE SPECIALIST
CONTROL SYSTEM
S5 MINISTERIAL TASK TEAM: INTER-DEPT,
PUBLIC/PRIVATE, CIVIL SOCIETY GENERALIST
SPECIALIST STRATEGY, POLICY, TRANSPARENT,
COLLABORABITVE, SUSTAINABILITY FOCUSED
S4 WWF/INDUSTRY/GOV ECOSYSTEMS APPROACH FOR
FISHERIES MANAGEMENT TEAM
INFO GATHERING, MONITORING, STRATEGY ADJUSTMENT
, SUSTAINABILITY MILESTONES REPORTING
S3
AUDIT
ALGEDONIC
ALERTS ATTENUATED
FUTURE
LOCAL ENVIRONMENT
ECOSYTTEMS APPROACH
FOR FISHERIES STRATEGY
EMBEDDED &
LOCAL ENVIRONMENTS
EMBEDDED &
LOCAL ENVIRONMENTS
EMBEDDED &
LOCAL ENVIRONMENTS
EMBEDDED &
LOCAL ENVIRONMENTS
EMBEDDED &
LOCAL ENVIROBNMENTS

• THE PRINCIPLES CONTAINED WITHIN THIS MODEL HAVE APPLICATION NOT ONLY IN OTHER NATURAL
RESOURCE INTENSIVE SECTORS
• WE STRONGLY ADVOCATE FOR THE USE OF THE PRINCIPLES AND PHILOSOPHY WITHIN ALL
BUSINESSES AND ORGANISATIONS
COMMON GOOD PRINCIPLES
WHOLE-OF-SOCIETY WORKING TOWARDS COMMON GOOD
POLICY, SYSTEMS, SOCIAL SYSTEMS, INSTITUTIONS & ENVIRONMENTS ARE BENEFICIAL
TO ALL – NOW AND FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS
JUSTICE & FAIRNESS
IMPLIES EQUAL BENEFITS AND BURDENS TO ALL =
SUSTAINABLE RESOURCE ENSURES FAIR DISTRIBUTION FOR CURRENT & FUTURE GENERATIONS
EQUAL AND ECONOMICALLY VIABLE ACCESS TO ALL STAKEHOLDERS

AS THE EVIDENCE PRESENTED DEMONSTRATES,
THE FUTURE OF THE SA FISHING INDUSTRY REQUIRES A PARADIGM SHIFT
TOWARDS
SUSTAINABLE, COLLABORATIVE, & TRANSPARENT MANAGEMENT PRACTICES
WE THEREFORE RECOMMEND THE IMPLEMENTATION OF AN
-ECOSYSTEMS APPROACH TO FISHERIES –
USING VSD & VSM AS FOUNDATIONAL, EMERGENT MODELLING
AND A SYNTHESIS OF
SO LONG…..AND THANKS FOR THE FISH
ACTIVITY THEORY
SCENARIO PLANNING
ACTIVITY SYSTEMS
INSITUTIONAL ANALYSIS & DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK
BUSINESS MODELLING CANVASS
LAWS OF CYBERNETICS
LAW OF REQUISITE VARIETY

REFERENCES: FISHING & VSM
Basurto, X. 2005. How Locally Designed Access and Use Controls Can Prevent the Tragedy of the Commons in a Mexican Small-Scale
Fishing Community. Society & Natural Resource. Vol 18. Pp. 643-659. Taylor & Francis Inc. DOI: : 10.1080/08941920590959631
Blaine, S. 5 March 2013. SA lacks analysis of its fishing markets. Business Day BDLive. www.bdlive.co.za
Business Day Editorial. 22 March 2013. Fishing on the brink of disaster. BDLive. www.bdlive.co.za
Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. 2012. Status of the South African Marine Fishery Resources. www.nda.agric.za
Hardin, G. 1968. The Tragedy of the Commons. Science, New Series. Vol. 162, No. 3859. Pp.1243 – 1248.
American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Harris, J.M; Codur, A. Nov 2008. Economics of Fisheries. Global Development and Environment Institute. www.eoearth.org
Manuel, T. 19 March 2013. Tie to make the high seas our business – for our future. Business Day BDLive. www.bdlive.co.za
Martin, G. 30 April 2013. Nautic Africa supporting DAFF patrol and research vessels. www.defenceweb.co.za
Ostrom, E. 1999. Coping with the Tragedies of the Commons. Centre of the Study of Institutions, Population and Environmental Change.
Indiana University. Bloomington. U.S.A. Annual Reviews.
Vecchiatto, P. 21 Mary 2013. Minister insists there is no crisis in fishing industry. Business Day BDLive. www.bdlive.co.za

CAUSAL MECHANISM: CURRENT REALITY: NULL HYPOTHESIS
APPENDIX A

SUSTAINABLE
FISHING STOCKS
SUFFIENCT MARINE
RESOURCES TO FEED
AND NOURISH ALL
STAKEHOLDERS
SUSTAINABLE
LIVELIHOODS &
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
REBUILDING OF
LONG-TERM
SUSTAINABLE
FISHING INDUSTRY
STRONG LEADERSHIP
& COHESIVE,
COLLABORATIVE
FISHING INDUSTRY
COLLABORATIVE,
HIGHLY SKILLED
INSTITUTIONAL
CAPACITY
ROBUST, CREDIBLE,
TIMELY RESEARCH
DATA
SUSTAINABLE &
RESPONSIBLE
AQUACULTURE
IDEAL REALITY = IDEAL FUTURE: LONG-TERM SUSTAINABLE FISHING INDUSTRY
5 OUT
2 IN
3 OUT
4 IN
6 OUT
1 IN
6 OUT
2 IN7 OUT
0 IN
4 OUT
3 IN
1 OUT
7 IN
2 OUT
6 IN
DRIVER
DRIVER
DRIVER
DRIVER
OUTCOME
OUTCOME
SA FISHING INDUSTRY: ANALYSIS, DIAGNOSIS,
SYNTHESIS & SYSTEMS REDESIGN TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT:
• VIABLE SYSTEMS DIAGNOSTICS
• VIABLE SYSTEMS MODEL
• INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS & DEVELOPMENT
FRAMEWORK [ AID]
• ACTIVITY SYSTEMS AND ACTIVITY THEORY
• BUSINESS MODELLING CANVASS
• LEAN & A3 PROCESS MAPPING
• CAUSAL LOOP MODELLING
• SCENARIO PLANNING
• WWF ECOSYSTEMS APPROACH FOR
FISHERIES [EAF]
• LAWS OF CYBERNETICS
• LAW OF REQUISITE VARIETY
WHAT WE NEED TO DESIGN USING THE VIABLE SYSTEMS MODEL
ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS: NOT REJECTED APPENDIX B

EMBA15.2: MODULE 2: BUSINESS ACUMEN GROUP ASSIGNMENT
SYSTAL- Rethinking the SA Fishing Industry With The View Of Improving Its Viability
EXECUTIVE MBA15.2
Prepared by: Mandisa Mashicila-Sekgalakane MSHMAN001
Amanda Brinkmann BRNAMA005
For and on behalf of Group 3 15 July 2013
STUDENT NAMES: STUDENT NO:
Bhadrashil Modi MDXBHA001
Willie Theron THRWIL004
Annie Cohen CHNANN002
Thierry Delvigne-Jean DLVTHIL001
Amanda Brinkmann BRNAMA005
Evan Smith SMTEVA002
Mandisa Mashicila-Sekgalakane MSHMAN001
LECTURER: Tom Ryan
WORD COUNT SCQUARE WITHIN RUVE: 927 WORDS

2
EXECUTIVE MBA
Module 2 Course Code: GSB4222F
Group Position Paper Title : SYSTAL- Rethinking the SA Fishing Industry With The View
Of Improving Its Viability
Group Number: GROUP 3 MODULE 2
Student Names: Amanda Brinkmann BRNAMA005
Mandisa Masichila-Sekgalakane MSHMAN001
For and on behalf of Group 3: Members:
Bhadrashil Modi MDXBHA001
Willie Theron THRWIL004
Annie Cohen CHNANN002
Thierry Delvigne-Jean DLVTHIL001
Evan Smith SMTEVA002
Date: 15 July 2013
Lecturer: Tom Ryan
Word Count: ~ Words
Relevance: Comments
0 - 2
Demonstrates little or no insight into the problem
situation. The concern is vague and it is not clear
why it is a problem and needs attention. Little or no
sense of the relevance of the problem
3-5 6-7 8
Demonstrates good insight into the problem
situation. Clearly states the concern and why it is a
problem and needs attention. Clearly and
compellingly demonstrates the significance and
relevance of the problem
Utility: Comments
0 - 2
The proposed answer is vague and it is not clear
how it answers the question posed and plausibly
deals with the concern
3-5 6-7 8
The proposed answer is clearly stated. Clearly
shows how the proposed action answers the
question posed and plausibly deals with the
concern
Validity: Comment
0-2
The chains of reasoning leading to conclusions and
proposed answers are vague and their underlying
logic is not clear – the data is suspect and there is
little evidence of the rigorous use of dependable
analytic and synthetic methods
3-5 6-7 8
Documents clear and logical chains of reasoning
in getting to conclusions and proposed action -
based on credible data, the rigorous use of
dependable analytic and synthetic methods
Ethics: Comment
0-2
Little or no credible consideration of the ethical
implications of the proposed action
3-5 6-7 8
Makes a well reasoned judgment of the ethical
implications of the proposed action base on a
clear ethical framework and empirical data
Communication: Comment
0-2
Poorly organised; does not meet project and
format requirements. Too many serious spelling and
grammatical mistakes
3-5 6-7 8
Well organised; fully meets project and format
requirements. No serious spelling and grammatical
mistakes
Appendix A: Crafting the paper (20%)
0-7
Incomplete; insufficient appropriate detail
8-12 13-17 18-20
Complete with appropriate rich detail
Appendix B: Doing the work (40%)
0-14
Incomplete; insufficient appropriate detail
15-25 26-35 36-40
Complete with appropriate rich detail
Final mark =
REPORT TITLE: SYSTAL- Rethinking the SA Fishing Industry With The View Of Improving Its Viability

3

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ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: PURPOSE STATEMENT
The purpose of this research report is to rethink the South African [SA] Fishing Industry with the view to
improving its viability. The key words that we have focused upon are: “rethink” and
“improvement of its viability.”
THE SITUATION: SA FISHING INDUSTRY
 The SA Fishing Industry is a significant contributor to job creation, government revenue and income
generation.
 Seafood is a vital source of protein and food security to a great many fishing communities as well as
the population as a whole.
 Mismanagement of our marine resources over decades has brought the resource to the brink of
collapse, which raises the spectre of dire potential socio-economic and societal impacts on SA as a
whole.
 The industry is fragmented, there is little or no strategic, political leadership and this status quo, if
maintained, is increasing the probability that we are steering our way towards “The Tragedy of the
Commons” – which implies the complete depletion of a natural resource, because of lack of
collaborative, sustainable and holistic management and resource allocation.
THE CONCERN
THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF THE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS ON THE SA FISHING INDUSTRY
The relevance of our concern within the situation, is that with continued lack of leadership, a fragmented
fishing industry, no research or patrol vessels being active and the unabated extraction of this already
threatened, depleted and over-exploited resource, fishing stocks will collapse, leading to “The Tragedy of
the Commons”, which will in turn have dire social, societal and economic impacts on South Africa as a
whole.
THE QUESTION
HOW DO WE AVOID THE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS FROM BECOMING A REALITY WITHIN THE SA FISHING
INDUSTRY?
THE ANSWER: STARTING THE PROCESS OF FRAMING AN ANSWER OR LONG-TERM SOLUTION
BY MOVING TO AN ECOSYSTEMS APPROACH FOR FISHERIES [EAF] MANAGEMENT which includes use of
the VSM AND OTHER METHODOLOGIES, TOOLS AND METHODS TO REDESIGN THE SA FISHING INDUSTRY
FROM A STRUCTURAL, SYSTEMS & ORGANISATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
This approach is evidence-based, considers the ecosystems and its future sustainability in totality and takes
the needs of all stakeholders into consideration. The Viable Systems Model [VSM] is a practical tool to both
diagnose and redesign the SA Fishing Industry, as it allows for emergence, adaptation and is by nature,
structured so as to deal with complex, unitary systems, where stakeholders have a vested interest in
communal, mutually beneficial outcomes and objectives. [Flood, R.L. July 1991.]
RATIONALE AND DATA CREDIBILITY
To ensure the credibility and veracity of our conclusions and recommendations, we followed the following,
rigorous, non-linear processes:
EMPIRICAL AND ACADEMIC RESEARCH→EXTENSIVE LITERATURE REVIEWS→EXTRACTS FROM PRESENTATIONS BY
INDUSTRY SPECIALISTS→ADDITIONAL DESK RESEARCH→INTERROGATION OF GLOBAL CASE STUDIES,
METHODOLOGIES, BEST PRACTICE→STUDYING, UNDERSTANDING AND USE OF THE VSM AND OTHER RELEVANT

5
THEOREMS, METHODOLOGIES, TOOLS→EXTRACTED FACT-BASED PROPOSITIONS→CATEGORISED AND
LABELLED→SATURATED CATEGORIES→EXTRACTED TWO SETS OF EMPIRICAL VARIABLES→RAN TWO SCENARIOS
USING ID’S AND CAUSAL MECHANISMS→TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE PRINCIPLES AND OUTCOMES OF THE
FISHBANKS GAME→
→To test for the validity and credibility of our situation, concern, question, answer as well as for the ethical
implications of what we are proposing. We concluded that the application of our answer is transferable not
only to other natural resource intensive industries, but that it could be employed within businesses and
organisations in any industry or sector.
ETHICAL IMPLICATIONS
The solution or answer that we propose is aimed at securing the long-term sustainability, economic and
social well-being as well as ecosystems health of the SA Fishing Industry and its stakeholders. We tested our
conclusions and recommendations against the principle of ethical decision-making, but emphasised the
following areas of ethics:
 Our approach finds resonance with the “Common Good” principle, in that it implies that all policy,
systems, social systems and society as a whole work towards a common good – which ensures that
the benefits accrue to all – now and for future generations.
 The “Justice and Fairness” principle, which implies that equal benefits and burdens accrue to all
stakeholders holds true. A Sustainable resource will ensure the fair distribution for current and future
generations in an equal, environmentally sensitive and economically viable manner.
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
An Ecosystems Approach to Fisheries Management will ensure that we avert “The Tragedy of the Commons”
and can be embedded within the organisational systems of the SA Fishing Industry, by using the Viable
Systems Model to redesign and adapt this emergent, future-focused solution.

6
CONTENTS PAGE PAGE NUMBERS
Abstract 4
SCQARE REPORT WITHIN THE RUVE
1. Introduction 9
2. Relevance 9
2.1 Creating the Context 9
2.2 The Situation 9
2.3 Conclusion 10
2.4 The Tragedy of the Commons 10
2.5 The Concern 10
2.6 The Argument for Relevance 10
2.7 Conclusion 11
3. Utility 11
3.1 The Question 11
3.2 The Answer 11
3.3 The Argument for Utility 12
4. Rationale and Data Credibility 12
4.1 Methodological Approach 12
4.2 The Argument for Validity 13
5. Ethics 13
5.1 Ethical Implications 13
5.2 The Argument for Ethics 13
6. Conclusions and Recommendations 14
7. References 15
TABLE OF FIGURES:
Fig 1: State of Global Fishing Stocks
Fig 2: Tragedy of the Commons
Fig 3: Scenario 2: CLD: Current Reality
Fig 4: Scenario 1: CLD: Ideal Reality towards a sustainable SA Fishing Industry
Fig 5: Process Flow/Methodological Approach
Fig 6: Tracking Tool for EAF Implementation – Argument for Ethics
APPENDIX A: CRAFTING THE PAPER 17
A 1 Establishing Relevance 17
A 1.1 the Situation 17
A 1.2 Introduction: Purpose Statement 17
A 1.3 The Situation: SA Fishing Industry 17
A 1.3.1 Relevance of the Concern within the Situation 21
A 2 Establishing Utility – The C<>Q<>A Link 21
A 2.1 The Question 21
A 2.2 Process to Substantiate the Concern, Framing the Answer and Validating 22
the Question
A 2.2.1 The Answer; The Framing Process 22
A 2.3 Establishing Utility 25
A 3 Establishing Validity and Credibility 26
A 3.1 Rationale and Data Credibility 26
A 3.2 Argument for Validity 26
A 3.3 Transferability 29
A 4 Ethical Implications & the Argument for Ethics 29

7
A 5 Overall Conclusions and Recommendations 29
TABLE OF FIGURES: APPENDIX A
Fig 1: Status of Global Fishing Stocks: The level of resource depletion
Fig 2: Status of Commercial Line Fishing in SA
Fig 3: Status of Marine Resources in SA
Fig 4: Economic View: Common Heritage Resources
Fig 5: The Tragedy of the Commons: Description
Fig 6: Situation SA Fishing Industry: In a Nutshell
Fig 7: The Immediate Concern
Fig 8: Establishing Relevance: Placing the Concern within the Context of the Situation
Fig 9: The Question
Fig 10: Outcome: Scenario 2: Business as Usual
Fig 11: Scenario 1: ID: Ideal Reality
Fig 12: Scenario 1: CLD: Ideal Reality
Fig 13: Scenario 2: ID: Current Reality: Business-as-Usual
Fig 14: Scenario 2: CLD: Current Reality: Business-as-Usual
Fig 15: Scenario 2 Outcomes
Fig 16: Graphic Representation of Methodology for Validity & Data Credibility
Fig 17: Scenario 1: CLD Confirming the SCQARE within the RUVE
Fig 18: Redesign of SA Fishing Industry using VSD within VSM
Fig 19; Transferability of the Solution
Fig 20: Considering Ethics: Common Good as well as Justice and Fairness
Fig 21: Conclusions & Recommendations: EAF Using VSM, VSD as Foundational Models
APPENDIX B: DOING THE WORK
B 1 Researching and Testing for the SCQARE: Rethinking the SA Fishing Industry with a 31
view to Improving its Viability
B 1.1 Contextual Introduction 31
B 2 Project Purpose Statement 31
B 2.1 Overview of Tragedy of the Commons 31
B 2.2 The Viable Systems Model in Context 32
B 2.3 Broad and Defined Project Purpose Statements 33
B 3 Process Flow 34
B 3.1 Establishing the Situation within the Context of Relevance 34
B 3.2 The Situation 34
B 3.2.1 Substantiating our Analysis and Statement of the Situation: A summary of Data & Facts 35
B 3.3 Establishing the Concern within the Situation 44
B 3.3.1 Scenario Planning/Testing 45
B 3.3.2 The Concern 48
B 3.3.3 Relevance of the Concern within the Situation 48
B 3.3.4 Establishing Utility: The C<>Q<>A Link 48
B 3.3.4.1 The Question 48
B 3.3.4.2 The Answer: The Framing Process 49
B 3.3.4.3 Phase 0 Re-Design of SA Fishing Industry using VSM
B 3.3.4.3.1 The Viable Systems Model: Validity as Core Methodology for Re-design of SA Fishing 51
Industry
B 3.3.4.3.2 Revisiting the Viable Systems Model 51
B 3.3.4.3.3 Phase 0 Re-design of the SA Fishing Industry using the VSD and VSM 59
B 3.3.4.3.4 The Argument for Utility – the C<>Q<>A Link 65
B 3.4 The Argument for Validity and Credibility 65
B 3.5 Ethics 68
B 3.5.1 Ethical Implications 68
B 3.5.2 The Argument for Ethics 68
B 3.6 Conclusions and Recommendations 68
B 3.7 Reference 69

8
TABLE OF FIGURES: APPENDIX B
Fig 1: Tragedy of the Commons
Fig 2: Status of Global Fishing Stock in 2008
Fig 3: Process Flow: Methodological Approach
Fig 4: MSC Certified Mark
Fig 5: Tracking Tool: EAF Implementation
Fig 6: Global Facts: Fishing Extraction and Consumption: State of Resource
Fig 7: State of Global Fishing Stocks 2008: Level of Depletion
Fig 8: Recreational Fishing: Economic Benefits and Environmental Impacts
Fig 9: State of Commercial Line Fish in SA: State of Over-exploitation and Collapse
Fig 10: Status of SA Marine Resource
Fig 11: Good Practice: Marine Protected Areas
Fig 12: SA Seafood Contribution to Export Revenue
Fig 13: SASSI: Eco-labelling
Fig 14: Three Pillars of Food Security
Fig 15: SA Fisheries Management; Mission Statement
Fig 16: Contribution of SA Fishing to Revenue & Job Creation
Fig 17: Direct Employment within SA Commercial Fishing Industry
Fig 18: Table of Concepts & Variables for Scenario Testing
Fig 19: Scenario 1: ID: Ideal Reality
Fig 20: Scenario 1: CLD: Ideal Reality
Fig 21: Scenario 2: ID: Current Reality
Fig 22: Scenario 2: CLD: Current Reality
Fig 23: Scenario: How to avoid the Tragedy of the Commons: Argument for Utility
Fig 24: Tracking Tool for EAF Implementation
Fig 25: Tools, Theorems, Methodologies: Re-design of SA Fishing Industry
Fig 26: Three Cybernetic Laws: Management Implications
Fig 27: Law of Requisite Variety
Fig 28: The Viable System: Basic Design
Fig 29: VSM Indices of Performance
Fig 30: Phase 0 Re-design of SA Fishing Industry: Embedding EAF into the System Structure
Fig 31: Methodology to Assure Data Credibility and Validity
Fig 32: Concept Map: Process Flow of Methodological Rigour: Establishing Validity
Fig 33: Considering Ethics: Common Good, Justice & Fairness
APPENDIX C: PROPOSITION LOG 71
APPENDIX D: CATEGORISATION, LABELLING, SATURATION: PROPOSITIONS 86

9
The purpose of this report is to find ways to improve the viability of the SA Fishing Industry. We studied the
industry, the VSM and other methodologies to reach our conclusions and recommendations.
This section of the report provides a snapshot of the current SITUATION within the SA Fishing Industry, in
context of the global situation.
From a report titled, “Fisheries: Facts and Trends: South Africa” , we
extracted the summary below:
generation.
 Seafood is a vital source of protein and food security to many fishing communities as well as to the
general population.
 Mismanagement of marine resources over decades has brought it to the brink of collapse. The SA
fishing stocks track with the statistics contained in Figure 1, above.
 The industry is fragmented, there is no strategic leadership and this situation, if maintained, is
increasing the probability that we are moving towards “The Tragedy of the Commons” – the
complete depletion of our fish stocks.
 This would have dire socio-economic consequences to fishing communities and the SA economy as
a whole.

10
This situation raises a serious concern, which we will deal with next.
“An economic problem where individuals try to reap the greatest benefit from a given resource. Demand
overwhelms supply.
All indications within our research point towards the collapse of the SA Fishing Industry, based on the current
unknown state of our marine resources, no current research and patrol vessels at sea and data that indicate
the depletion and over-exploitation of more than 50% of our resources.
The SITUATION:
 A lack of leadership
 No clear policies to manage and sustain the SA Fishing Industry
 No research data to manage the SA marine ecosystem sustainably; the state of biomass of
fishing stocks is unknown
 We therefore cannot accurately allocate fishing rights/quotas and could already be in a state
of total depletion of important marine resources
 No patrol vessels at sea to regulate, monitor and protect the SA marine resources – creating
conditions for exploitation and poaching
 Marine resources which are mostly depleted, over-fished, over-exploited or on the verge of
collapse
 Exacerbated by the non-implementation of the Ecosystems Approach to Fisheries [ EAF]

11
 Could lead to total collapse of SA Fishing Stocks
 Which will become The Tragedy of the Commons – the point of no return for our marine
resources
 Creating large, negative, socio-economic impacts and devastating impacts on the SA
Economy as a whole
The CONCERN is centrally situated as an outcome of the SITUATION and made relevant, due to the
dire consequences of inaction.
We need to urgently question how we deal with this concern and find sustainable answers and
solutions so as to avert a national socio-economic crisis.
HOW DO WE AVOID THE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS FROM BECOMING A REALITY WITHIN THE SA FISHING
INDUSTRY?
The CLD below demonstrates the dire outcomes if we do not find an answer to our question.
The CLD and ID for Scenario 1: Ideal Reality: A Sustainable SA Fishing Industry led us to include the additional
variable, the EAF into Scenario 2. The first part of our answer is therefore:
MOVING TO AN ECOSYSTEMS APPROACH FOR FISHERIES [EAF] MANAGEMENT
LACK
OF/WEAK/ABSENT
LEADERSHIP
NOT
ADOPTING THE
WWF ECOSYSTEMS APPROACH
FOR FISHERIES
and therefore
NO OR INFREQUENT DATA ARE
COLLECTED AND ANALYSED
CREATING THE
CONDITIONS FOR
IRRESPONSIBLE EXPANSION &
MANAGEMENT OF AQUACULTURE
FRAGMENTED FISHING INDUSTRY
SEEKING HIGHEST INDIVIDUAL ROI
which leads to
ENVIRONMENTAL, MARINE
ECOSYSTEMS DEGRADATION
which in turn
leads to
creating the
PERFECT STORM
COLLAPSING/COLLAPSED
FISHING STOCKS
which ultimately
leads to
THE TRAGEDY OF THE
COMMONS
as a consequence
of which
THE FISHING INDUSTRY
COLLAPSES
contributing
significantly to
thereby
leading to the
COLLAPSE OF A VITAL
SOURCE OF PROTEIN &
FOOD SECURITY
INCREASED POVERTY
THROUGH UNEMPLOYMENT
INCREASE IN LOCAL
MALNUTRITION
which all adds
up to
SOCIO-ECONOMIC HARDSHIPS
FOR FISHING COMMUNITIES AND
SA AS A WHOLE
which manifests
as further
SOCIAL & SOCIETAL DECAY
& INEQUALITY
AT A HUGE
COST TO
ECONOMIC
GROWTH &
DEVELOPMENT
SA AS A WHOLE
INTER-RELATED
COMMUNITY
ECOSYSTEMS
HOMEOSTASIS AND
HUMAN
ESCHATOLOGY
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
- -
-
-
-
-
-
- -
-
-
-
- R

12
The CLD above demonstrates the benefits of the EAF. It is evidence-based, prioritises the ecosystem, its
sustainability and takes the needs of all stakeholders into consideration.
The Viable Systems Model [VSM] is a practical tool to both diagnose and redesign the SA Fishing Industry, as
it allows for emergence, adaptation and is by nature, structured so as to deal with complex, unitary systems,
where stakeholders have a vested interest in communal, mutually beneficial outcomes and objectives.
BY MOVING TO AN ECOSYSTEMS APPROACH FOR FISHERIES [EAF] MANAGEMENT which includes use of
the VSM AND OTHER METHODOLOGIES, TOOLS AND METHODS TO REDESIGN THE SA FISHING INDUSTRY
FROM A STRUCTURAL, SYSTEMS & ORGANISATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
rigorous, non-linear processes as demonstrated within Figure 5 below:
STRONG LEADERSHIP & COHESIVE,
COLLABORATIVE FISHING
INDUSTRY
ROBUST, CREDIBLE, TIMELY
RESEARCH DATA
COLLABORATIVE, HIGHLY
SKILLED INSTITUTIONAL
CAPACITY
SUSTAINABLE
FISHING STOCKS
REBUILDING OF LONG-TERM
SUSTAINABLE FISHING
INDUSTRTY
SUSTAINABLE &
RESPONSIBLE
AQUACULTURE
SUFFICIENT MARINE RESOURCES
TO FEED & NOURISH ALL
STAKEHOLDERS
SUSTAINABLE
LIVELIHOODS &
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ensure the
availability of
which, when
coupled with
assures and
contributes to
via
which in combination
create the conditions
for
with the ultimate
outcome of
which provides the
incentives for the
continued
leading to
long-term
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
R
R
R

13
We feel satisfied that our report as well as the demonstration of the processes employed to ensure validity
and credibility, which are contained within our Appendices, satisfy all criterion in respect of validity. We also
concluded that the application of our answer is transferable not only to other natural resource intensive
industries, but that it could be employed within businesses and organisations in any industry or sector.
The answer that we propose is aimed at securing the long-term sustainability, economic and social well-
being as well as ecosystems health of the SA Fishing Industry and all its stakeholders. We tested our
conclusions and recommendations against the principles of ethical decision-making. Figure 6 makes the
case for the under-lying ethical implications of our answer.

14
An Ecosystems Approach to Fisheries Management will ensure that we avert “The Tragedy of the Commons”
and can be embedded within the organisational systems of the SA Fishing Industry, by using the Viable
Systems Model to redesign and adapt this emergent, future-focused solution.

15
REFERENCES: GROUP 3 FISHING INDUSTRY VSM PROJECT
Bailey, M; Gakushilshimura; Paisley, R; Sumaila, U, R. 2012. Marine Policy. Elsevier Ltd.
Basurto, X. 2005. How Locally Designed Access and Use Controls Can Prevent the Tragedy of the Commons
in a Mexican Small-Scale Fishing Community. Society & Natural Resource. Vol 18. Pp. 643-659. Taylor &
Francis Inc. DOI: : 10.1080/08941920590959631
Beer, S. 1972. Brain of the Firm. The Penguin Press. London.
Blaine, S. 5 March 2013. SA lacks analysis of its fishing markets. Business Day BDLive. www.bdlive.co.za
Business Day Editorial. 22 March 2013. Fishing on the brink of disaster. BDLive. www.bdlive.co.za
Clemson, B. 2013 – EMBA 15. Three Key Cybernetic Laws.
Crawford, S; Ostrom, E.1995. A Grammar of Institutions. American Political Science Review 89(3)(Sept.):582-
600.
Denyer, D; Tranfield, D; Van Aken, J.E. 2008. Developing Design Propositions through Research Synthesis.
Organisation Studies Vol. 29: 393
Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. 2012. Status of the South African Marine Fishery Resources.
www.nda.agric.za
Engestrom, Y. 2009. From Learning Environments and Implementation to Activity Systems and Expansive
Learning. An International Journal of Human Activity Theory. No.2. Pp. 17-33. The Centre of Human Activity
Theory. Kansai University.
Espejo, R. 2003. The Viable System Model: A Briefing about Organisational Structure. Syncho Limited. www.
syncho.com
Espejo, R; Reyes, A. 2011. On Managing Complexity: Variety Engineering: Chapter 4; Organisational
Systems. Springer-Verlag. Berlin, Heidelberg.
Flood, R.L. July 1991. Creative Problem Solving: Total Systems Intervention. Chapter 5: Viable Systems
Diagnosis. John Wiley & Sons.
Hardin, G. 1968. The Tragedy of the Commons. Science, New Series. Vol. 162, No. 3859. Pp.1243 – 1248.
American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Harris, J.M; Codur, A. Nov 2008. Economics of Fisheries. Global Development and Environment Institute.
www.eoearth.org
Helmy, H. November 1990. Decision Rule Theory and its use in the Analysis of the Organisation’s
Performance. Baligh Organisation Science, Vol.1, No. 4. www.enotes.com
Herbert, S. 1957. A Behavioural Model of Rational Choice; Extracted from Models of Man, Social and
Rational: Mathematical Essays on Rational Human Behaviour in Social Setting. New York. Wiley & Sons.
Hurwicz, L. 1994. Economic Design, Adjustment Processes, Mechanisms, and Institutions.‖ Economic Design
1(1):1-14.
Investopedia US. 2013. Definitions: The Tragedy of the Commons. A Division of ValueClick, Inc.
www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tragedy-of-the-commons.asp

16
Korten, D.C. 1980. Community Organization and Rural Development: A Learning Process Approach.‖ Public
Administration Review (Sept./Oct.): 480-511.
Manuel, T. 19 March 2013. Tie to make the high seas our business – for our future. Business Day BDLive.
www.bdlive.co.za
Martin, G. 30 April 2013. Nautic Africa supporting DAFF patrol and research vessels. www.defenceweb.co.za
Ostrom, E. 1999. Coping with the Tragedies of the Commons. Centre of the Study of Institutions, Population
and Environmental Change. Indiana University. Bloomington. U.S.A. Annual Reviews.
Ostrom, E; Gardner, R; Walker, J. 1994. Rules, Games and Common-Pool Resources. Ann Arbor. MI University.
University of Michigan Press.
Pauly, D; Alder, J; Bennett, E; Christensen, V; Tyedmers, P; Watson, R. 21 November 2003. The Future of
Fisheries. Science Vol 302. www.sciencemag.org
Polski, M.M; Ostrom,E. 1999. An Institutional Framework for Policy Analysis and Design. Department of Political
Science. Indiana University. USA.
Sauer, W.H.H; Hecht, T; Britz, P.J; Mather, D. 2003. An Economic and Sectoral Study of the South African
Fishing Industry. Economic and regulatory principles, survey results, transformation and socio-economic
impact Report. Volume 1. Prepared for Marine and Coastal Management by Rhodes University.
www.envirofisharica.co.za
Scholtes, P.R. 1998. The Leader’s Handbook. United States of America. The McGraw-Hill Companies.
Trochim, W,M,K. 2006. Deduction & Induction. Web Center for Social Research Methods. Research Methods
Knowledge Base. www.socialresearchmethods.net
Van Aken, J. E. 2005. Improving the Relevance of Management Research by Developing Tested and
Grounded Technological Rules. Eindhoven Centre for Innovation Studies. Eindhoven University of
Technology.
Vecchiatto, P. 21 May 2013. Minister insists there is no crisis in fishing industry. Business Day BDLive.
www.bdlive.co.za
Velasquez, M; Andre, C; Shanks, T; Meyer, M.J. Ethical Decision Making: Introduction to Ethics. www.scu.edu
World Wildlife Organisation. November 2011. Fisheries: Facts and Trends: South Africa. Sponsored and
published by Pick ‘n Pay.

17
APPENDIX A: CRAFTING THE PAPER
A 1 ESTABLISHING RELEVANCE
A 1.1 THE SITUATION
A 1.1.1 INTRODUCTION: PURPOSE STATEMENT
The defined purpose of this research report is to rethink the South African [SA] Fishing Industry with the view to
improving its viability. The key words that we have focused upon are: “rethink” and
“improvement of its viability.” The purview of this research paper does not allow for, nor require, finding of
the panacea in respect of proposing an ultimate solution, but it does provide the scope to do the following:
 Gain a working understanding of the SA Fishing Industry and the current reality that it is faced with.
 To situate the state of the SA Fishing in context of the global fishing industry, so as to gain perspective
and draw from best practice, as well as compare and contrast the SA situation with the general
global trends within the industry.
 To grasp the concept of “ The Tragedy of the Commons” which is related and has potential impact
on all finite, natural resources; and to consider the impact it could have on the SA Fishing Industry
and the SA economy as a whole.
 To understand the theory and practice of the Viable Systems Model [VSM] [Flood, R.L. July 1991.] as
both a Diagnostic and Organisational/Systems Design tool.
 To make connections with complementary and related theorems, methodologies and tools to aid in
the diagnostic and solutions or answer ideation process.
 To arrive at the Situation, Concern, Question, Answer, Rationale and Ethics [SCQUARE] in regards to
the SA Fishing Industry and to apply the VSM, in its most basic form, together with other tools, to
provide a snapshot of what the SA Fishing Industry could look like if it departed from its Current Reality
or “Business as Usual” approach and moved to a more Ideal Reality, so as to create a more Ideal,
sustainable future for generations to come.
A 1.1.2 THE SITUATION: SA FISHING INDUSTRY
From its in-depth report titled, “Fisheries: Facts and Trends: South Africa”, the World Wildlife Organisation
[World Wildlife Organisation. November 2011.], we extract the following snapshots to paint a picture of the
precarious situation that the SA Fishing Industry finds itself in:
generation.
 Seafood is a vital source of protein and food security to a great many fishing communities as well as
the population as a whole.
 Mismanagement of our marine resources over decades has brought the resource to the brink of
collapse, which raises the spectre of dire potential socio-economic and societal impacts on SA as a
whole.
 The industry is fragmented, there is little or no strategic, political leadership and this status quo, if
maintained, is increasing the probability that we are steering our way towards “The Tragedy of the
Commons” – which implies the complete depletion of a natural resource, because of lack of
collaborative, sustainable and holistic management and resource allocation.
The various graphics in the form of numbered figures, as well as the detailed workings within Appendices B, C
and D, provide a detailed and empirical foundation that describes the situation that the SA Fishing Industry
finds itself in at present. We have summarized the state of industry as succinctly, yet powerfully, as possible.

18
Figure 1: Status of Global Fishing Stocks: The level of resource depletion
Figure 2: Status of Commercial Line Fish in South Africa Amanda Brinkmann Indigo Consulting

19
Figure 3: Status of Marine Resources in South Africa
Figure 4: Economic View: Common Heritage Resources: Lakes & Oceans treated as Free Resources

20
Figure 5: The Tragedy of the Commons: Description [Hardin, G. 1968]
Figure 6: Situation: SA Fishing Industry: In a Nutshell
1.2 THE CONCERN
From the extensive data that were interrogated and the scenarios that we ran, all indications are that we
are being steered towards the complete depletion of our marine resources and the collapse of the industry.
Our concern is therefore expressed as:
The relevance of our concern within the situation, is that with continued lack of leadership, a fragmented
fishing industry, no research or patrol vessels being active and the unabated extraction of this already
threatened, depleted and over-exploited resource, fishing stocks will collapse, leading to “The Tragedy of
the Commons”, which will in turn have dire social, societal and economic impacts on South Africa as a
whole.
Figure 7: The Immediate Concern: Potential Impact of the Tragedy of the Commons on the SA Fishing Industry
The Scenarios that we ran, using Inter-relationship Digraphs as well as Causal Loop Diagramme Mechanisms,
served as further validation of our concern within the situation. All indications within our research,
methodological rigour, diagnosis, analysis and synthesis pointed towards the very real possibility and probability
of the Tragedy of the Commons being a threat to the SA Fishing Industry – if not already a done deal for
certain marine resources, given the dearth of credible and current scientific research data.

21
A 1.3 ESTABLISHING RELEVANCE: SITUATING THE CONCERN WITHIN THE SITUATION
A 1.3.1 RELEVANCE OF THE CONCERN WITHIN THE SITUATION
The SITUATION is characterised by:
 A lack of leadership at strategic as well as institutional level as a whole
 No clear or stable policies to manage and sustain the SA Fishing Industry
 No research data available to plan and manage the SA marine ecosystem sustainably; which
further implies that the state of biomass of fishing stocks is unknown
 This in turn means that we cannot accurately allocate fishing rights and quotas and could
already be in a state of total depletion of important marine resources
 No patrol vessels at sea to regulate, monitor and protect the SA marine resources – which
creates the conditions for exploitation of all marine resources as well as poaching
collapse
 Could lead to the total collapse of SA Fishing Stocks
resources
 Creating large, negative, socio-economic impacts, by the collapse of the SA Fishing Industry
and therefore, devastating impacts on the SA Economy as a whole
dire consequences of inaction or continuing on the current path as is prevalent within the current
SITUATION. Relevance is further clearly states within the outcomes of the two [2] scenarios which we
ran.
Figure 8: Establishing Relevance; Placing the Concern within the context of the Situation
A 2 ESTABLISHING UTILITY – THE C<>Q<>A LINK
A 2.1 THE QUESTION
Based on our findings and research, the logical question to ask, would be;
HOW DO WE AVOID THE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS FROM BECOMING A REALITY WITHIN THE SA
FISHING INDUSTRY?
Given the state of the SA Fishing industry, its already depleted and over-exploited stock, the lack of
research data for planning and resource management, our question is particularly useful, in that it
seeks to explore how we avoid the collapse of a vital natural resource and all of the concomitant
consequences.

22
Figure 9: The Question: How do we Avoid the Tragedy of the Commons from Becoming a Reality within the
SA Fishing Industry/
A 2.2 PROCESS TO SUBSTANTIATE CONCERN, START FRAMING THE ANSWER AND VALIDATE THE QUESTION
A 2.2.1 THE ANSWER: THE FRAMING PROCESS
In starting the process of framing our answer, we felt that the EAF offers the most practical and cogent
long-term, sustainable solution to the viability of the SA Fishing Industry.
Figure 10: Outcome: Scenario 2; Business as Usual: Leading to the Framing of our Answer
Our answer, or at least part of it, specifically the move to the Ecosystems Approach to Fisheries [ EAF] was
rationalised and brought forth by the entire methodological process employed, but more specifically, by the
two scenarios that we ran, using two sets of variables to create two ID’s and two Causal Loop Diagramme
Mechanisms.

23
Figure 11: Scenario 1: Inter-relationship Digraph: Ideal Reality: Long-term Sustainable Fishing Industry
Figure 12: Scenario 1: CLD: Ideal Reality: Long-term Sustainable Fishing Industry
INDUSTRY
RESEARCH DATA
CAPACITY
SUSTAINABLE
FISHING STOCKS
SUSTAINABLE FISHING
INDUSTRTY
SUSTAINABLE &
RESPONSIBLE
AQUACULTURE
STAKEHOLDERS
SUSTAINABLE
LIVELIHOODS &
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ensure the
availability of
which, when
coupled with
assures and
contributes to
via
for
with the ultimate
outcome of
which provides the
incentives for the
continued
leading to
long-term
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
R
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R

24
Figure 13: Scenario 2 ID: Current Reality, Business-as-Usual Scenario
Figure 14: Scenario 2: CLD: Current Reality, Business-as-Usual outcomes
LACK
OF/WEAK/ABSENT
LEADERSHIP
NOT
ADOPTING THE
WWF ECOSYSTEMS APPROACH
FOR FISHERIES
and therefore
CREATING THE
CONDITIONS FOR
which leads to
which in turn
leads to
creating the
PERFECT STORM
FISHING STOCKS
which ultimately
leads to
THE TRAGEDY OF THE
COMMONS
as a consequence
of which
COLLAPSES
contributing
significantly to
thereby
leading to the
COLLAPSE OF A VITAL
SOURCE OF PROTEIN &
FOOD SECURITY
INCREASED POVERTY
INCREASE IN LOCAL
MALNUTRITION
which all adds
up to
SOCIO-ECONOMIC HARDSHIPS
FOR FISHING COMMUNITIES AND
SA AS A WHOLE
which manifests
as further
& INEQUALITY
AT A HUGE
COST TO
ECONOMIC
GROWTH &
DEVELOPMENT
SA AS A WHOLE
INTER-RELATED
COMMUNITY
ECOSYSTEMS
HOMEOSTASIS AND
HUMAN
ESCHATOLOGY
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
- -
-
-
-
-
-
- -
-
-
-
- R

25
Figure 15: Scenario 2 outcomes: Pointing to the requirements to be contained within the Answer
Leading to FRAMING THE ANSWER
THIS APPROACH TO RESOURCE MANAGEMENT IS CHARACTERISED BY:
• UNDERSTANDING THE WHOLE ECOSYSTEM IMPACTS WITHIN MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS
• SOCIETAL WELL-BEING OF DEPENDENT FISHING COMMUNITIES ARE INCLUDED WITHIN
MANAGEMENT ADVICE AND PRACTICE
• THE LONG-TERM ECONOMIC WELL-BEING OF THE FISHING INDUSTRY IS THE COMMUNAL OUTCOME
• TRANSPARENT AND PARTICIPATORY MANAGEMENT STRUCTURES
• REDUCES OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
• SUFFICIENT SKILLS, CAPACITY, EQUIPMENT & FUNDING
• ROBUST SCIENTIFIC DATA COLLECTION
POINTING THE NEED FOR A PHASE 1 REDESIGN OF THE
SA FISHING INDUSTRY USING THE VIABLE SYSTEMS MODEL
A 2.3 ESTABLISHING UTILITY
This empirically proven, best practice model [The EAF] takes a holistic approach, which includes
consideration of whole ecosystems impacts, the well-being of fishing communities as well as the long-
term socio-economic well-being of the Fishing Industry as its ultimate outcome. With the World Wildlife
Fund [WWF] and the United Nations as its progenitors and the WWF as the specialist implementation
partners globally, the EAF Management System carries gravitas and inherent credibility from successes
that have already been achieved in a variety of other fishing territories.
An Ecosystems Approach to Fisheries [EAF] is being adopted globally. This approach considers all marine
organisms and the processes that inter-connect them. It recognises that alterations in any processes are
difficult to recognise and even more difficult to restore, once disrupted.
Having studied a large range of theorems, methodologies, frameworks and tools, it was found that the
Viable Systems Model [Flood, R.L. July 1991.], with specific reference to the Viable Systems Diagnostics tools
that are built into this model, are most appropriate as a point of departure. The VSM and VSD aided with the
confirmation of the diagnosis of the current system and structure and with a Phase 0 re-design of the SA
Fishing Industry. In addition to the VSM, a range of other tools, methods and methodologies would be
employed as part of the emergent process of adapting, improving, checking, adjusting, measuring,
communicating, co-ordinating and rebuilding the SA Fishing Industry.
At the heart of this emergent process, that is inherent in using the Viable Systems Model to re-design the
structure of the SA Fishing Industry, would be the use of the Deming Wheel or

26
Plan→Do→Study/Check→Act[ion] [ PDCA][ Scholtes, P.R. 1998.] to constantly improve upon the structural
design and functional systems and their interactions. The control [System 2] and co-ordination systems
[ System 3] [Beer, S. 1972.]will be specific areas of emphasis, so as to ensure that communication of any
variances are dealt with as swiftly as possible and the system as a whole adjusted and adapted to deal with
complexity, variety and variances.
The more comprehensive first framing of the ANSWER is therefore expanded as: BY MOVING TO AN
ECOSYSTEMS APPROACH FOR FISHERIES [EAF] MANAGEMENT which includes use of the VSM AND OTHER
METHODOLOGIES, TOOLS AND METHODS TO REDESIGN THE SA FISHING INDUSTRY FROM A STRUCTURAL,
SYSTEMS & ORGANISATIONAL PERSPECTIVE
A 3 ESTABLISHING VALIDITY AND CREDIBILITY
A 3.1 RATIONALE AND DATA CREDIBILITY
rigorous, non-linear processes:
EMPIRICAL AND ACADEMIC RESEARCH→EXTENSIVE LITERATURE REVIEWS→EXTRACTS FROM PRESENTATIONS BY
INDUSTRY SPECIALISTS→ADDITIONAL DESK RESEARCH→INTERROGATION OF GLOBAL CASE STUDIES,
METHODOLOGIES, BEST PRACTICE→STUDYING, UNDERSTANDING AND USE OF THE VSM AND OTHER RELEVANT
THEOREMS, METHODOLOGIES, TOOLS→EXTRACTED FACT-BASED PROPOSITIONS→CATEGORISED AND
LABELLED→SATURATED CATEGORIES→EXTRACTED TWO SETS OF EMPIRICAL VARIABLES→RAN TWO SCENARIOS
USING ID’S AND CAUSAL MECHANISMS→TOOK INTO ACCOUNT THE PRINCIPLES AND OUTCOMES OF THE
FISHBANKS GAME→
→To test for the validity and credibility of our situation, concern, question, answer as well as for the ethical
implications of what we are proposing.
A.3.2 ARGUMENT FOR VALIDITY
We feel satisfied that our report as well as the demonstration of the processes employed to ensure validity
and credibility, which are contained within our Appendices B, C and D, satisfy all criterion in respect of
validity. We also concluded that the application of our answer is transferable not only to other natural
resource intensive industries, but that it could be employed within businesses and organisations in any
industry or sector.

27
Figure 16: Graphic Representation of Methodology for Validity and Data Credibility
Figure 17: Scenario 1: CLD: Confirming the SCQARE within the RUVE
INDUSTRY
RESEARCH DATA
CAPACITY
SUSTAINABLE
FISHING STOCKS
SUSTAINABLE FISHING
INDUSTRTY
SUSTAINABLE &
RESPONSIBLE
AQUACULTURE
STAKEHOLDERS
SUSTAINABLE
LIVELIHOODS &
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ensure the
availability of
which, when
coupled with
assures and
contributes to
via
for
with the ultimate
outcome of
which provides the
incentives for the
continued
leading to
long-term
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
R
R
R

28
Figure 18: Redesign of the SA Fishing Industry using VSD within the VSM
We include the redesign of the SA Fishing Industry, using the VSD within the VSM within this section, as we
firstly, within our Appendix B workings, investigated and substantiated the use of the VSD and VSM as
appropriate tools for complex unitary systems. These systems are subject to constant environmental
changes, yet are by nature able to be unified towards achieving mutually beneficial goals and objectives.
The methodology therefor works perfectly for the fishing industry, which has the characteristics as described
above.
Within Appendix B, we demonstrate our understanding of the VSM as well as the practical applications of
the tool, so as to arrive at a new design for the SA Fishing Industry. Within our very basic, Phase 0 re-design,
we use the Institutional and Development Framework [AID] to aid in our diagnosis and to guide our design.
The scope of this paper does not allow for a detailed diagnosis and resultant diagnostic report, nor for a
comprehensive narrative regarding how each of the systems should ideally be structured, using the array of
methodologies, tools, methods and frameworks at our disposal. We did however, within Appendix B,
provide a snapshot of our diagnosis, as well as a summary of the key areas that we believe would have to
be dealt with, addressed, monitored and measured, so as to evolve the VSM structure of the SA Fishing
Industry over time, so as to reach the end goal – which is a long-term, sustainable marine resource and a
thriving fishing industry and economy.

29
A 3.3 TRANSFERABILITY
Given the nature inherent in our solution – focusing upon long-term sustainability, involving all stakeholders,
collaborating in the interest of the greater good and being adaptable, emergent and evolving by nature,
transferability to other natural resource management systems seems natural. We do however believe that
this model of long-term sustainability has application across sectors, industries, businesses and organisations.
In fact, it is particularly relevant in the era where we have reached the Limits to traditional growth and where
total organisational wellness will lie at the heart of its future existence.
Figure 19: Transferability of the Solution
A 4 ETHICAL IMPLICATIONS AND THE ARGUMENT FOR ETHICS
The solution or answer that we propose is aimed at securing the long-term sustainability, economic and
social well-being as well as ecosystems health of the SA Fishing Industry and all of the stakeholders affected
by its well-being and/or who may have an impact on its long-term well-being. We therefore tested our
conclusions and recommendations against all of the principle of ethical decision-making, but emphasised
the following areas of ethics:
Figure 20: Considering Ethics: Common Good as well as Justice & Fairness
A 5 OVERALL CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
An Ecosystems Approach to Fisheries Management will ensure that we avert “The Tragedy of the
Commons” and can be embedded within the organisational systems of the SA Fishing Industry, by using
the Viable Systems Model to redesign and adapt this emergent, future-focused solution.

30
Figure 21: Conclusions and Recommendations: EAF using VSD and VSM as foundational models

31
Appendix B: DOING THE WORK
B.1 RESEARCHING AND TESTING FOR THE SITUATION, CONCERN, QUESTION, ANSWER, RATIONALE AND
ETHICS: RETHINKING THE SA FISHING INDUSTRY WITH THE VIEW OF IMPROVING ITS VIABILITY
B.1.1 CONTEXTUAL INTRODUCTION
The nature of the assignment requires that we have to firstly understand the situation in as much detail
as possible, before we are able to formulate our concern and from there, the question and answer
that would flow from the concern. Given the dynamic complexity of the SA Fishing Industry, it is
patently clear that there are a range of concern variables that could be dealt with. We felt strongly
that we needed to find a concern variable that carried gravitas and that had the potential, if dealt
with in a holistic manner, to positively impact the future sustainability and viability of the industry in a
meaningful manner.
Our approach has therefore been to research and test for these core issues, so as to ensure that
relevance, utility and validity are assured, before we are able to delve deeper into the concern,
question and answer variables.
B.2 PROJECT PURPOSE STATEMENT
B.2.1 OVERVIEW OF THE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS
The South African Fishing Industry forms part of the Regional [Southern Africa] as well as Global Fishing
Industries; all of whom are reliant on a resource which could deplete completely, if not managed in a
collaborative and sustainable manner. It is fair to state that any natural resource is finite by nature and
as such, susceptible to what is known as “The Tragedy of the Commons.” [Hardin, G. 1968.]
The Tragedy of the Commons is defined as:
Figure 1: Tragedy of the Commons [ Source: World Wildlife Organisation. November 2011. Fisheries: Facts
and Trends: South Africa. Sponsored and published by Pick ‘n Pay.]
Investopedia [Investopedia US. 2013.] offers the following two adjuvant definitions;
Definition of 'Tragedy of the Commons'
“An economic problem in which every individual tries to reap the greatest benefit from a given resource. As
the demand for the resource overwhelms the supply, every individual who consumes an additional unit
directly harms others who can no longer enjoy the benefits. Generally, the resource of interest is easily
available to all individuals.”

32
Investopedia explains 'Tragedy of The Commons'
“The tragedy of the Commons occurs when individuals neglect the well-being of society (or the group) in the
pursuit of personal gain. For example, if neighboring farmers increase the number of their own sheep living
on a common block of land, eventually the land will become depleted and not be able to support the
sheep, which is detrimental to all.”
As we will demonstrate within this Appendix as well as within our core thesis, the data are clear in that
the SA Fishing Industry is standing on the precipice of collapse. The current status quo is the result of a
large variety of internal as well as external factors and variables interacting with one another over a
prolonged period of time; all of whom have conspired to create the situation that we are faced with
currently.
We expound on the current Situation in greater detail within the body of this document. However, to
demonstrate the relevance of expounding on The Tragedy of the Commons, Figure 2 below paints a
disconcerting picture of the status of global fish stocks. At the time of releasing these statistics, 53% of
the global marine resources were described as being fully fished, 3% completely depleted and 28%
over-fished. Given the fragmented nature of the local as well as global fishing industries, the lack of
co-ordination, communication and resource management, we fear that this situation may have
become far worse in the ensuing five[5] years. These statistics speak to an industry teetering on the
brink of collapse and therefore, susceptible to The Tragedy of the Commons.
Figure 2: Status of Global Fishing Stocks in 2008; [World Wildlife Organisation. November 2011. Fisheries:
Facts and Trends: South Africa. Sponsored and published by Pick ‘n Pay.]
B.2.2 THE VIABLE SYSTEMS MODEL IN CONTEXT
A Viable systems is by inference one that is able to function autonomously and which is organized so
that it is able to deal with dynamic complexity in order to survive. [. Beer, S. 1972.] Adaptability and
emergence are two core features of viable systems.
As the environment changes, so the system must be designed so as to adapt to the internal and external
dynamics that affect it. The Viable Systems Model [VSM] [Beer, S. 1972.] is based upon an abstracted
cybernetic description that is applicable to any viable system; implicit within this system is the fact that
regulation theory underpins the design of the system. As we hope to demonstrate within our first attempt at

33
redesigning the SA Fishing Industry, using the VSM, we have placed emphasis upon the regulation theory of
cybernetics, as well as other tools and methodologies to ensure that the control, co-ordination and strategic
systems are equipped so as to ensure the high-functioning of System One [1], which is where the actual work
is done with in the VSM. In Systems Theory, this system one would be akin to the GEMBA – defined as GEM –
specific work – BA – the place – or the core system that produces the customer’s value and work. [Scholtes,
P.R. 1998.]
Using Viable Systems Diagnosis [Flood, R.L. July 1991], which provides the foundation for creative
problem solving and total systems intervention, our aim was to arrive at a broad systems diagnosis and
to re-design the existing SA Fishing Industry, using the Viable Systems Model. We remain fully alive to
the fact that such a diagnosis and Phase 0 re-design are the mere beginnings of an on-going, organic
and emergent process. The Deming Wheel or PDCA [ Plan→Do→Check→Action]process [Scholtes,
P.R. 1998.] should be one of the methodologies or tools used to ensure the constant cycle of planning,
doing, checking and action so as to adapt, improve, adjust and shape the SA Fishing Industry into a high-
functioning, sustainable and independently functioning, self-organising system.
The Viable Systems Model [VSM] [Espejo, R. 2003.] is a foundational instrument via which we are able to
observe collective behaviours from a systemic or holistic perspective. It is a useful tool to gain a
comprehension of why a system, business, organisation or institution is as it is at a given moment in time.
Most importantly, it provides the methodologies and theory of practice to enable systems interventions so
that it works optimally and in the interest of all stakeholders or role players.
It is however one tool in a much larger toolbox of theorems, methodologies, processes and frameworks –
and would be used in combination with a range of methodologies, such as: inter-relationship diagraphs
[ID’s], Causal Loop Diagramme [ CLD] mechanisms, Activity Systems & Activity Theory[Engestrom, Y. 2009.],
The Law of Requisite Variety[Espejo, R; Reyes, A. 2011.], Scenario planning, The Laws of
Cybernetics[Clemson, B. 2013 – EMBA 15.], Institutional and Analysis Framework [AID][ Polski, M.M; Ostrom,E.
1999.] as well as the Context, Mechanism, Outcome [ CMO] model and its companion model, the
CIMO[Denyer, D; Tranfield, D; Van Aken, J.E. 2008.], which includes the Intervention that is proposed so as to
change the behaviour of the concern variable and bring it back into the envelope of acceptance.
Bounded Rationality [Herbert, S. 1957.], Decision Rule Theory [Helmy, H. November 1990.], Technological
Rules [Van Aken, J. E. 2005.] as well as Design Propositions are taken into account during this process of
redesign.
The successful re-design and the implementation of a new functional structure, may take years of learning,
development, adaptation, updating, expansion, analysis and synthesis – so as to finally arrive at a fully
functioning system.
Given the value of the fishing industry, in respect of its contribution to export revenue, job creation, food
security as well as socio-economic impacts, there can be no doubt that urgent interventions are required in
the now, so as to secure the long-term sustainability of this resource. Our responsibility is not confined to the
present, but has specific bearing on the ability of future generations to continue benefiting from the rich
bounty of the oceans.
B.2.3 BROAD & DEFINED PROJECT PURPOSE STATEMENTS
 TO GAIN A WORKING UNDERSTANDING OF THE SA FISHING INDUSTRY – CURRENT SITUATION
 TO GAIN AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE THEORY AND PRACTICE OF THE VIABLE SYSTEMS MODEL AS
A DIAGNOSTIC AS WELL AS SYSTEMS DESIGN TOOL
 TO MAKE THE CONNECTIONS WITH COMPLEMENTARY AND RELATED THEOREMS,
METHODOLOGIES AND TOOLS TO AID IN THE DIAGNOSTIC & SOLUTIONS/ANSWER IDEATION
PROCESS
 TO ARRIVE AT THE SITUATION, CONCERN, QUESTION, ANSWER, RATIONALE AND ETHICS IN
REGARDS TO THE SA FISHING INDUSTRY AND TO APPLY THE VSM IN ITS BASIC FORMAT TO PROVIDE
A PHASE 0 RE-DESIGN
ENCAPSULATED AS: DEFINED PROJECT PURPOSE STATEMENT:
RETHINKING THE SA FISHING INDUSTRY WITH THE VIEW OF IMPROVING ITS VIABILITY

34
B.3 PROCESS FLOW
Figure 3: PROCESS FLOW/METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH: TO ARRIVE AT SITUATION, CONCERN,
QUESTION, ANSWER, RATIONALE & ETHICS [SCQARE]: WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF THE RELEVANCE, UTILITY,
VALIDITY AND ETHICS [RUVE] FRAMEWORK
Before we were able to embark upon the construction of our core thesis within the Relevance, Utility,
Validity and Ethics [RUVE] framework, we had to first establish as well as validate the constituent parts
of the SCQARE within the context of the RUVE. The following non-linear, non-concurrent processes
were employed:
B.3.1 ESTABLISHING THE SITUATION WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF RELEVANCE
 The collecting of our propositions required the study of: * various research reports *peer-
reviewed articles and research papers *extracts from presentations made by Fishing Industry
Specialists * additional desk research to source news reports, press statements and additional
research data related to Global Resource Management Best practice models. This provided a
sound foundation to sufficiently understand the fishing industry as a whole [systemic view] and
the SA Fishing Industry in context of the global marine ecosystem as a whole.
 It furthermore ensured that the current SITUATION that the SA Fishing Industry finds itself in, which
we describe within our report, is factually based and based upon sound, deductive as well as
inductive [“bottom-up” logic] reasoning. In other words, we constructed and evaluated our
general propositions which were drawn from specific, empirical sources, by using ‘bottom up”
logic, also known as induction. We naturally did the opposite, which involved using some of the
more general propositions, to derive more specific propositions, via a process of deduction.
[Trochim, W.M.K. 2006.]
 As such, the propositions used are empirical and factually based, in contrast to subjective,
opinion-based propositions.

35
 Given the factual basis of the propositions [Appendix C], we are comfortable that they are
able to accurately describe and validate the SITUATION that the SA Fishing Industry finds itself in.
 These propositions were thereafter categorised and labelled [Appendix D]; within the limited
scope and timeframe of this assignment, the categories were saturated so as to be able to
extract the core variables that are responsible, via their inter-play with one another, for the
sustainability [or not] of the SA Fishing Industry.
 In terms of the elements contained within our Broad Project Purpose Statement, the process as
described above, allowed us to achieve the objective: TO GAIN A WORKING UNDERSTANDING
OF THE SA FISHING INDUSTRY – CURRENT SITUATION.
B.3.2. THE SITUATION
Based on the methodological approach described above, we populated a comprehensive fact-
based Proposition Log [See Appendix C: Proposition Log] as well as Categorising, labelling and
saturating the categories [See Appendix D: Categorisation, labelling and category saturation:
Propositions] to arrive at a succinct summation and conclusion about the current state of the SA
Fishing Industry; we describe the SITUATION as follows:
“The SA Fishing Industry is a vital component of the SA economy as a whole, provides substantial
employment and job creation opportunities, contributes to the country’s export revenues as well as
local economy and provides food security and subsistence to a great many coastal fishing
communities.
Due to decades of resource mismanagement, a dearth of strategic leadership, a general lack of
credible research data, no patrol vessels in operation and the inability to unite the industry around the
collaborative, sustainable management of our marine resources, the SA Fishing industry stands on the
precipice of collapse.
This is particularly true of its in-shore fishing resources, which are by nature more accessible to
subsistence fishers, small-scale fisheries as well as recreational fishing. The off-shore marine resources
are in a slightly better position due to an attempt by the large commercial fishing companies to co-
manage the resource. As the data will show, urgent interventions are required to prevent the
complete collapse of the marine resource, which would in turn lead to the Tragedy of the Commons –
the point of no return and complete collapse of both the resource and therefore the fishing industry.
This would have dire socio-economic consequences for the country as a whole.”
B 3.2.1 SUBSTANTIATING OUR ANALYSIS AND STATEMENT OF THE SITUATION: A SUMMARY OF DATA AND
FACTS
Our description of the SITUATION is based upon the analysis and synthesis of the information contained
within Appendices C and D and is further validated within the body of this section.
In the Business Day article, “Minister insists there is no crisis in fishing industry”, [Vecchiatto, P. 21 May
2013.] the author provides the following information:
 Forestry and Fisheries Minister, Tina Joemat-Pettersson and fishing industry CEO’s have insisted there is
no crisis in the sector.
 Almost no fishery protection patrols have been performed over the past year [+].
 There has been a disruption of the economically important fishing surveys. [ Required and used to
calculate fishing density, so as to inform the allocation of fishing rights and quotas and to ensure the
sustainable regeneration of fishing stocks so as to keep the industry viable]
 There is confusion around the issuing of fishing quotas. [ A great many long-term quotas/rights are
expiring at the end of 2013 and into 2014; without credible research data and the required
institutional skills and capacity, it is doubtful whether new long-term rights will be issued by the due
deadline – further placing economic pressure on the fishing industry and creating further insecurity as
well as the impetus for over-fishing and maximal extraction of the resource]
 The Minister of the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry [ DAFF] took office in 2009 and
met with the fishing industry for the first time in 2013 – four [ 4] years after taking office. At this

36
meeting, the Minister, under pressure of national government, expressed the need for the industry to
advise her, to have their valued voice hear and to look at how opportunities for both commercial
and small-scale fishers can be expanded. She furthermore spoke to a ‘game change’ within the
industry. She also made a commitment that the fishing patrol and research vessels, currently in the
custody of the SA Navy, would be made operational as soon as possible. [ As at July 2013, these
vessels have not left the harbour in Simon’s Town, Cape Town – and given their state of disrepair, it is
estimated that it will take another year before they are ready and seaworthy]
In an article titled, “Nautic Africa supporting DAFF patrol and research vessels”, [Martin, G. 30 April 2013] the
author confirms that Nautic Africa has signed an agreement with DAFF to support its four fisheries protection
and two fisheries research vessels, as part of the attempt of DAFF to get the fleet to full operational status
again.
Before Nautic Africa can however assist in vessel operations, which will include bunkering, crewing and other
logistics to ensure that the vessels are put to see as quickly and efficiently as possible, DAFF has contracted
with a service provider to repair the fleet for sea[use].
According to Shaheen Moola, during his presentation titled, “Managing Commercial Fisheries in SA”, Nautic
Africa has no experience in patrolling and managing marine resources. He furthermore contends that the
company that DAFF has contracted with to repair the existing fleet, built the original ships, but is not
schooled in the repair of vessels. Their primary focus is manufacturing of new boats, not the repair of
unseaworthy vessels. He expressed his concern about their ability to fulfill the task, including the fact that this
will more than likely delay the readiness of the vessels further.
According to Shaheen Moola, MD of Feike Natural Resource Management Advisors, [Martin, G. 30 April
2013.] industry CEO’s have no choice but to co-operative with the Minister of DAFF, as she had threatened to
withdraw their fishing rights. He furthermore indicated that DAFF still had to allocate 1000 fishing-right quotas,
but had not yet appointed a service provider. It is therefore unlikely that this process will be completed by
year-end [2013].
It goes without saying that regular surveys of South Africa’s fishing resources are important for the country to
prove that it has sustainable fishing stocks in order to keep export markets. [Martin, G. 30 April 2013.] These
surveys have not happened for at least two [2] or more years, placing our marine resources under extreme
threat.
According to Shaheen Moola, from Feike, extracted from his presentation to the EMBA 15.2 class during
Module 2, the SA Fishing Industry faces a large range of challenges:
 With the rise of populist, political rhetoric, there has been the accompanying emergency of failed
fishing policy. Cadre deployment has paralysed DAFF and a failed Minister, who is, in Moola’s
opinion completely lacking in understanding of the fishing industry. There has been rampant
corruption under her watch; there is a need for strong political leadership to nurse the fishing industry
back to optimal health. There is a general lack of political leadership, policy and vision for the SA
fishing industry.
 With the collapse of in-shore fisheries, this has led to greater unemployment, poverty and social
instability. Fishing co-operatives create further and deeper poverty as well as resource degradation;
this is due to the ownership of the resource being unclear; it is spread thinly between too many
stakeholders and their portion of the resource cannot sustain them. This leads to over-fishing,
poaching and further exploitation of the resource just to survive.
 There is no fisheries patrol and research capacity and the potential loss of the Marine Stewardship
Council [MSC] sustainable fishing certification for hake trawl Fisheries.

37
Figure 4: MSC Certified Sustainable Seafood Mark; Eco-label
Loss of this certification would have negative impact on these fisheries having access to export markets,
where consumers are the drivers of ecosystems approaches to fisheries and want confirmation that they are
consuming seafood that has been sustainably managed and caught.
 There is a high cost attached to extracting and processing seafood; the biggest investment is in the
technology to find the fish in the first place. The large commercial fishing companies trade together
in respect of the market. They co-operate so as to be able to collaboratively meet market demands
and have access and marketing capabilities.
 3000 artisanal fisheries quotas where allocated – out of these quotas, 250 of the quota holders
earned nothing more than R 350; these quotas are in essence paper quotas and are generally ‘
hawked’ to the larger fishing companies.
 The 8-15 year quotas are distributed between 3222 quota holders and on an ad hoc, random basis
by the Minister. There are currently no specialists within DAFF, with the 11th Deputy Director-General
being in the acting position in the past 4 years.
 Undue political pressure is exactly what is not required in fisheries management. Government
intervention has in fact contributed to the collapsed state of fishing stocks. Because of the ad hoc,
populist nature of the allocation of rights, key sustainable management methodologies have been
abandoned.
 DAFF presented to the National Parliament and admitted that they have no idea as to state of the
SA marine resources and admitted that the impact of not having functioning patrol and research
vessels means that no-one is certain about where we stand as an industry.
Trevor Manuel, in his role as a Commissioner on the Global Ocean Commission, [Manuel, T. 19 March 2013.]
made the following statements:
The task that the Global Ocean Commission has set itself is to demonstrate how the ocean can be
sustainably and equitably managed. All evidence will be assessed, from sectors of society, including
science, economics, business and law. This will be distilled into a to-do list for global leaders – a list of
practical and efficient measures that via their implementation will reverse the degradation of marine
resources in the high seas and restore them to full health and productivity. He reiterates that the large
rewards lie in the high seas and that this where the largest challenges are.
He goes on to confirm that 80 million tonnes of food is extracted from the world’s oceans annually. The
United Nations [UN] Food and Agriculture Organisation calculates that half of the world’s fisheries are
providing as much as they sustainably can, whilst one-third are being exploited beyond that limit, leading to
diminishing returns.
In its publication, ‘Fisheries: Facts and Trends: South Africa”, the World Wildlife Organisation [WWO] [World
Wildlife Organisation. November 2011.], the following facts emerge:
Morne Du Plessis, CEO of the World Wildlife Fund [WWF] states that this report provides a clear picture of the
precarious state of the SA Fishing Industry after decades of mismanagement of our marine systems. For him,
this report and its findings, underscores the drive to promote an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries [EAF]. This
approach recognises the pivotal role that marine ecosystems play in maintaining resilient, socio-cultural
systems in the face of growing threats of climate change and food security.
SA has a coastline stretching 3000 km; our oceans support both commercial and artisanal fisheries. In order
to ensure the social and economic well-being of South Africa’s coastal people, collaborative and
responsible management is required to create a long-term, sustainable marine resource. The historical

38
practice of single species management has failed. Holistic environmental management strategies and
sustainable fishing practices, taking the whole ecosystem into consideration, are now imperative.
difficult to recognise and even more difficult to restore, once disrupted. An EAF aims to: “balance
diverse societal objectives, by taking into account the knowledge and uncertainties about biotic, abiotic
and human components of ecosystems and their interactions and applying an integrated approach to
fisheries within ecologically meaningful boundaries” (FAO 2003).[ World Wildlife Organisation. November
2011.]
Figure 5: Tracking Tool: EAF implementation in SA Fishing Industry

39
Figure 6: Global Facts: Fishing extraction and consumption; state of the resource [World Wildlife
Organisation. November 2011.]
Figure 7: Status of Global Fish Stocks in 2008: Level of Resource Depletion [World Wildlife Organisation.
November 2011.]

40
Figure 8: Recreational Fishing in SA; Economic benefits and environmental impacts [World Wildlife
Organisation. November 2011.]
Figure 9: Status of Commercial Line fish in South Africa: State of over-exploitation and collapse [World
Wildlife Organisation. November 2011.]

41
Figure 10: Status of SA Marine Resource [World Wildlife Organisation. November 2011.]
Figure 11: Good Practice: Marine Protected Areas in South Africa[World Wildlife Organisation. November
2011.]
From the data provided and the propositions log, it is clear that this good practice is absent within the SA
Fishing Industry.

42
Figure 12: SA Seafood; Contribution to Export Revenue [World Wildlife Organisation. November 2011.]
Figure 13: SASSI – Fish markets in SA; Eco-labelling and awareness [World Wildlife Organisation. November
2011.]
Consumer awareness programmes are starting to pay off in terms of providing the incentives for the SA
Fishing Industry to commit to sustainable fishing practices. Consumers are demanding eco-products and
want to be assured that they are not contributing towards the denigration of the ecosystem.
Figure 14: Three [3] pillars of Food Security: A Complex system [World Wildlife Organisation. November 2011.]

43
Figure 15: SA Fisheries Management Mission Statement [World Wildlife Organisation. November 2011.]
This is a near perfect example of a vision and mission statement that has been devised at the highest level,
which has good intentions, but that is far removed from the realities on the ground and falls far short of being
implemented or implementable, given the current situation of the SA Fishing Industry.
Figure 16: Contribution of the SA Fishing Industry to Revenue and job creation [World Wildlife Organisation.
November 2011.]
Figure 17: Direct employment within SA Commercial Fishing Industry [World Wildlife Organisation. November
2011.]

44
It is estimated that in addition to these formal and direct jobs, the commercial fishing industry creates an
additional 100 000 jobs within ancillary sectors.
All of these factual propositions, with additional propositions extracted from an array of additional resources
are contained within our Proposition log [Appendix C] as well as our Categorisation, labelling and saturation
log [Appendix D]. All of these facts were analysed and synthesised so as to establish and confirm the current
SITUATION within the SA Fishing Industry.
B.3.3 ESTABLISHING THE CONCERN WITHIN THE SITUATION
After analyzing, synthesising, categorising, labelling and saturation of the propositions, two sets of
variables were created, so as to test two [2] scenarios, which served as the basis to establish and
validate our: Concern, Question, Answer or C<>Q<>A statements as well as their linkages. These
variables were drawn from Appendix D: Categorisation, labelling and category saturation:
Propositions.
LABEL CONCEPT VARIABLES SCENARIO 1 VARIABLES SCENARIO 2
STATE OF FISHING
STOCKS
UNCERTAIN/ UNDER
THREAT
SUSTAINABLE FISHING
STOCKS
COLLAPSED/COLLAPSING
FISHING STOCKS
AQUACULTURE GROWTH INDUSTRY SUSTAINABLE &
RESPONSIBLE
AQUACULTURE
IRRESPONSIBLE
AQUACULTURE
RESEARCH IMPERATIVE TO REBUILD &
MANAGE MARINE
RESOURCES
ROBUST, TIMELY,
CREDIBLE RESEARCH
DATA
NO OR INFREQUENT
RESEARCH DATA
INSTITUTIONAL
CAPACITY
REQUIRED TO REBUILD
RESOURCE & PREVENT
TRAGEDY OF THE
COMMONS
COLLABORATIVE,
HIGHLY-SKILLED
CAPACITY
FRAGMENTED, UNSKILLED
CAPACITY
INDUSTRY
COHESION/COLL
ABORATION
INTEREST OF LONG-TERM
SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS
COHESIVE INDUSTRY –
STRONG LEADERSHIP
FRAGMENTED INDUSTRY –
SEEKING INDIVIDUAL
BENEFIT
RESOURCE
MANAGEMENT
SUSTAINABLE,
RESPONSIBLE,
COLLABORATIVE GLOBAL
MANAGEMENT
REBUILDING OF LONG-
TERM SUSTAINABILITY OF
FISHING INDUSTRY
TRAGEDY OF THE
COMMONS
SOCIO-
ECONOMIC
SITUATION &
IMPACTS
HEALTH & WELL-BEING OF
COMMUNITIES, INDUSTRY
AND ECONOMY
SUSTAINABLE
LIVELIHOODS &
ECONOMIC GROWTH
SOCIETAL & INDUSTRY
COLLAPSE & DECAY
FOOD
SOURCE/SECURITY
SOURCE OF NUTRITION
AND INCOME
SUFFICIENT MARINE
RESOURCES FOR HEALTH
AND WELLNESS
MALNUTRITION &
POVERTY
Figure 18: Table of Concepts and Variables for Scenario testing/planning
The set of variables was used to create two [2] Inter-Relationship Digraphs [ID] – these were in turn used
to test the Scenarios within Causal Loops Diagramme [CLD] Mechanisms.

45
B.3.3.1 SCENARIO PLANNING/TESTING
Using the Scenario one [1] variables contained within Figure 18: Table of Concepts and Variables for
Scenario testing/planning, an ID was constructed to interrogate and understand the drivers of the
long-term sustainability and viability of the SA Fishing Industry.
Figure 19: Scenario 1: IDEAL REALITY LEADING TO IDEAL FUTURE: SUSTAINABLE SA FISHING INDUSTRY
The following was deduced from the analysis of Figure 19: Scenario 1: IDEAL REALITY LEADING TO
IDEAL FUTURE: SUSTAINABLE SA FISHING INDUSTRY:
 The three [3] primary drivers of the future sustainability and viability of the SA Fishing Industry, in
descending order, are: * Strong leadership & Cohesive, Collaborative Fishing Industry * Robust,
Credible, Timely Research Data * Collaborative, Highly Skilled, Institutional Capacity.
 These drivers in turn lead to three [3] primary outcomes, in ascending order: * Sustainable
Fishing Stocks, leading to * Sufficient Marine Resources to feed and nourish all stakeholders,
which in turn assures * Sustainable Livelihoods and Economic Growth.
Using the same variables from Scenario one [1], a Causal Mechanism was constructed to verify the
veracity of the deductions made from the ID. Figure 20: Scenario 1: CAUSAL MECHANISM: TESTING
THE ID AND FEASIBILITY OF THE SCENARIO below confirms that Scenario one [1] creates the foundation
for the design, adaptation and implementation of a Viable SA Fishing Industry, by taking a
Collaborative, Integrated, Sustainable and Holistic Approach to Resource Management. Such a
system is described by the World Wildlife Organisation’s Ecosystems Approach to Fisheries [EAF], to
which South Africa is a signatory, but with limited implementation having taken place to date. [ World
Wildlife Organisation. November 2011.]

46
Figure 20: Scenario 1: CAUSAL MECHANISM: TESTING THE ID AND FEASIBILITY OF THE SCENARIO
Based on the reinforcing loops contained within the Causal Mechanism above, it points towards the
benefits of the Implementation of the Ecosystems Approach to Fisheries to ensure the long-term
sustainability and viability of the SA Fishing Industry. This in turn led to the inclusion of the Non-
implementation of the EAF as an additional variable within our “Business as Usual” Scenario 2 testing
below.
Figure 21: Scenario 2: CURRENT REALITY “BUSINESS AS USUAL” SCENARIO
INDUSTRY
RESEARCH DATA
CAPACITY
SUSTAINABLE
FISHING STOCKS
SUSTAINABLE FISHING
INDUSTRTY
SUSTAINABLE &
RESPONSIBLE
AQUACULTURE
STAKEHOLDERS
SUSTAINABLE
LIVELIHOODS &
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ensure the
availability of
which, when
coupled with
assures and
contributes to
via
for
with the ultimate
outcome of
which provides the
incentives for the
continued
leading to
long-term
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
++
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
R
R
R

47
Using the Scenario two [2] variables contained within Figure 18: Concepts and Variables: Scenario
testing/planning, an ID was constructed to interrogate and understand what the probable outcomes
of a Current Reality, “Business as Usual” scenario would be.
The following was deduced from the analysis of Figure 21: Scenario 2: CURRENT REALITY “BUSINESS AS
USUAL” SCENARIO:
 In descending order, the drivers of the collapse of the SA Fishing Industry are: * Lack of or weak
leadership & unskilled institutional capacity leading to the * WWF Ecosystems Approach to
Fisheries [ EAF] NOT being implemented, allied to which * No or infrequent research data being
available with an Adjuvant Driver * Fragmented Fishing Industry seeking Individual Benefit & ROI
 Leading to the following disturbing and disconcerting outcomes: * Collapsed Fishing Stocks *
The Tragedy of the Commons * Societal, Social, Industry Collapse & Decay, culminating in *
Malnutrition, Food Insecurity & Poverty
From the scenario above, it seems patently clear that if the SA Fishing Industry continues on its current
trajectory, it is doomed to complete failure and collapse. Such a situation would have dire socio-
economic impacts on the 147 fishing communities along our 3000 km coastline as well as to the
economy as a whole.
Using the same variables as per the ID above, a Causal Mechanism was constructed to verify the
conclusions drawn from the ID above.
Figure 22: Scenario 2: CAUSAL MECHANISM: TESTING THE ID AND “BUSINESS AS USUAL” SCENARIO
LACK
OF/WEAK/ABSENT
LEADERSHIP
NOT
ADOPTING THE
WWF ECOSYSTEMSAPPROACH
FORFISHERIES
and therefore
CREATING THE
CONDITIONS FOR
which leads to
which in turn
leads to
creating the
PERFECT STORM
FISHING STOCKS
which ultimately
leads to
THETRAGEDY OF THE
COMMONS
as a consequence
of which
COLLAPSES
contributing
significantly to
thereby
leading to the
COLLAPSE OF A VITAL
SOURCE OF PROTEIN &
FOOD SECURITY
INCREASED POVERTY
INCREASE IN LOCAL
MALNUTRITION
which all adds
up to
SOCIO-ECONOMICHARDSHIPS
FORFISHINGCOMMUNITIESAND
SA ASA WHOLE
which manifests
as further
& INEQUALITY
AT A HUGE
COST TO
ECONOMIC
GROWTH &
DEVELOPMENT
SA AS A WHOLE
INTER-RELATED
COMMUNITY
ECOSYSTEMS
HOMEOSTASISAND
HUMAN
ESCHATOLOGY
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
- -
-
-
-
-
-
- -
-
-
-
- R

48
As is clearly evidenced from Figure 22 above, the consequences of continuing on the current path
within the SA Fishing Industry has the potential to lead to an array of dire consequences. These
include: * The Tragedy of the Commons which means that * The Fishing Industry collapses or has
collapsed, leading to * Collapse of a vital source of protein and food security; Increased poverty
through unemployment; increase in local malnutrition with all add up to * Socio-Economic Hardships
for Fishing Communities and SA as a whole.
The knock-on effect of the situation as described above, further leads to social and societal decay
and inequality, at a huge cost to Economic Growth and Development, SA as an inter-related system
and community and lastly, poses a real threat to ecosystems homeostasis and human eschatology. In
fact, it would be safe to say that the latter two issues would be in a state of crisis.
B.3.3.2 THE CONCERN
All of the work done, the analysis of the data as well as the collaborative management of the marine
resource within the Fishbanks Game and the positive outcomes thereof, point towards the possibility or
probability of The Tragedy of the Commons being a real threat to the continued viability of the SA
Fishing Industry. Our CONCERN is therefore expressed as:
B3.3.3 RELEVANCE OF THE CONCERN WITHIN THE SITUATION
The SITUATION is characterised by:
 A lack of strategic leadership at strategic as well as institutional level
 No clear or stable policies to manage and sustain the SA Fishing Industry
 No research data available to plan and manage the SA marine ecosystem sustainably; which
further implies that the state of biomass of fishing stocks is unknown
 This in turn means that we cannot accurately allocate fishing rights and quotas and could
already be in a state of total depletion of important marine resources
 No patrol vessels at sea to regulate, monitor and protect the SA marine resources – which
creates the conditions for exploitation of all marine resources as well as poaching
collapse
 Could lead to the total collapse of SA Fishing Stocks
resources
 Creating large, negative, socio-economic impacts, by the collapse of the SA Fishing Industry
and therefore, devastating impacts on the SA Economy as a whole
dire consequences of inaction or continuing on the current path as is prevalent within the current
SITUATION. Relevance is further clearly states within the outcomes of the two [2] scenarios which we
ran.
B.3.3.4 ESTABLISHING UTILITY: THE C<>Q<>A LINK
B.3.3.4.1 THE QUESTION
Based on our findings and research, the logical question to ask, would be;
HOW DO WE AVOID THE TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS FROM BECOMING A REALITY WITHIN THE SA
FISHING INDUSTRY?
Given the state of the SA Fishing industry, its already depleted and over-exploited stock, the lack of
research data for planning and resource management, our question is particularly useful, in that it

49
seeks to explore how we avoid the collapse of a vital natural resource and all of the concomitant
consequences.
B.3.3.4.2 THE ANSWER: THE FRAMING PROCESS
In starting the process of framing our answer, we felt that the EAF offers the most practical and cogent
long-term, sustainable solution to the viability of the SA Fishing Industry.
Figure 23 : Scenario: How to avoid The Tragedy of the Commons: The argument for Utility
ANSWER in PART: BY MOVING TO AN ECOSYSTEMS APPROACH FOR FISHERIES [EAF] MANAGEMENT
This empirically proven, best practice model takes a holistic approach, which includes consideration of
whole ecosystems impacts, the well-being of fishing communities as well as the long-term socio-
economic well-being of the Fishing Industry as its ultimate outcome. With the World Wildlife Fund
[WWF] and the United Nations as its progenitors and the WWF as the specialist implementation partners
globally, the EAF Management System carries gravitas and inherent credibility from successes that
have already been achieved in a variety of other fishing territories.
difficult to recognise and even more difficult to restore, once disrupted.
An EAF aims to:
“balance diverse societal objectives, by taking into account the knowledge and uncertainties about biotic,
abiotic and human components of ecosystems and their interactions and applying an integrated approach
to fisheries within ecologically meaningful boundaries” (FAO 2003).[ World Wildlife Organisation. November
2011.]

50
Figure 24: Tracking Tool: EAF implementation in SA Fishing Industry
Implementation of the EAF will however require that it is embedded within the very organisational
structure of the SA Fishing Industry, which implies the redesign of the current organisational structure
and system, so as to allow for change management and improvements, with the ultimate outcome of
a long-term, sustainable resource and industry.
Having studied a large range of theorems, methodologies, frameworks and tools, it was found that the
Viable Systems Model [Flood, R.L. July 1991.], with specific reference to the Viable Systems Diagnostics tools
that are built into this model, are most appropriate as a point of departure. The VSM and VSD aided with the
confirmation of the diagnosis of the current system and structure and with a Phase 0 re-design of the SA
Fishing Industry. In addition to the VSM, a range of other tools, methods and methodologies would be
employed as part of the emergent process of adapting, improving, checking, adjusting, measuring,
communicating, co-ordinating and rebuilding the SA Fishing Industry.
At the heart of this emergent process, that is inherent in using the Viable Systems Model to re-design the
structure of the SA Fishing Industry, would be the use of the Deming Wheel or
Plan→Do→Study/Check→Act[ion] [ PDCA][ Scholtes, P.R. 1998.] to constantly improve upon the structural
design and functional systems and their interactions. The control [System 2] and co-ordination systems
[ System 3] [Beer, S. 1972.]will be specific areas of emphasis, so as to ensure that communication of any
variances are dealt with as swiftly as possible and the system as a whole adjusted and adapted to deal with
complexity, variety and variances.
The more comprehensive first framing of the ANSWER is therefore expanded as: BY MOVING TO AN
ECOSYSTEMS APPROACH FOR FISHERIES [EAF] MANAGEMENT which includes use of the VSM AND OTHER
METHODOLOGIES, TOOLS AND METHODS TO REDESIGN THE SA FISHING INDUSTRY FROM A STRUCTURAL,
SYSTEMS & ORGANISATIONAL PERSPECTIVE

AVOIDING THE " TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS" IN SA FISHING INDUSTRY - A SIMPLIFIED VIEW AND POTENTIAL SOLUTION EMBA 15 SUB GROUP PRESENTATION AND DISCUSSION DOCUMENT

AVOIDING THE " TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS" IN SA FISHING INDUSTRY - A SIMPLIFIED VIEW AND POTENTIAL SOLUTION EMBA 15 SUB GROUP PRESENTATION AND DISCUSSION DOCUMENT

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AVOIDING THE " TRAGEDY OF THE COMMONS" IN SA FISHING INDUSTRY - A SIMPLIFIED VIEW AND POTENTIAL SOLUTION EMBA 15 SUB GROUP PRESENTATION AND DISCUSSION DOCUMENT