This document discusses issues related to procuring counter-terrorism measures during times of economic uncertainty. It notes that counter-terrorism expenditures have steadily increased but questions remain about determining sufficient defensive levels, especially for commercial developers facing budget constraints. It warns against assuming threats have diminished just because deployments in Afghanistan are scaling back. The document also cautions that security is often seen as a "grudge purchase" and there may be a "race to the bottom" in quality of measures adopted during a recession. It provides recommendations for buyers to consider qualified design consultants, approaches aligned with security standards, and lifecycle costs when procuring counter-terrorism services and solutions.

1. Buyer Beware!
The Pitfalls of Procuring Counter
Terrorism in Times of Uncertainty
Chris Tomlinson – Arup Resilience, Security and Risk

2. 2
My Agenda
• Why worry about what the „buck‟ buys in terms of
preventing the „bang‟
• CONTEST‟s success
• The enduring adversaries
• Securing commercial developments in a recession
• Buyer‟s guide and what bad may look like
• Self-help sources
• Final thoughts on value and quality.

3. 3
So Why Worry?
• There has been a steady year-on-year increase in
expenditures on counter terrorism during this century –
the evidence is everywhere
• Surely we will be less of a target, as we scale back
deployments to Afghanistan over next few years?
• Most accept the „user pays‟ principle, but how much is
enough and what is defensive sufficiency?
• Raising questions about what is a fair level of
expenditure for commercial developers?

4. 4
Especially if CONTEST is working - isn‟t it?
• PREVENT must have reached its target audiences,
changed mindsets and we are withdrawing from
Afghanistan
• PURSUE the most newsworthy of the activities appears
to have caused plenty of adversary disruption
• PROTECT may have also played a part – e.g. the 2012
Olympics‟ security overlay
• PREPARE has probably evolved as well, but it is the
least interesting of the CONTEST strands.

5. 5
Lest We Forget – International Inspired Groups
• 11 UK nationals had planned to set off up to eight
rucksack bombs and possibly other devices in crowded
places
• Yes some have proved a bit incompetent, but we should
never bank on stupidity – these were dangerous
conspirators!

6. 6
Lest We Forget – Dissident Irish Republicans
• We are seeing a steady drive by Dissidents to resurrect
capabilities – UVBTs, mortars and RPGs

7. 7
Securing Commercial Spaces in a Recession
• “Can you tell me what we need to get our design past
the planning committee and can you explain that risk
appetite thing again?”
• Those that fund, design, develop, manage and occupy
are a diverse stakeholder community
• Those gifted with powers to reject poor security design
are not that empowered or inclined
• Security is always a grudge purchase and wiser heads
than I say that attitude is set to prevail
• A race to bottom in terms of the quality – perhaps!

8. 8
All this when:
• Building footprints are getting more „stacked and
packed‟ – economics of city space usage
• Public private property demises are harder to define –
territoriality is challenged
• The public is apt to forget that threats continue and
may evolve
• Policing is under pressure in terms of providing the
Thin Blue Line and design specialists
• The CT designer and system supplier/installer are
finding things tough commercially.

9. 9
Key Deductions for Buyers – the Stuck Record
• Get a threat and resilience assessment done early –
ensure the DBTs are understood and agreed
• Do match the HVM to the DBTs
• Stand-off is the most acceptable of CT measures, but a
luxury in a crowded central business district
• Look for design that facilitates detection and reaction
• Think back-of-house as well as front-of-house
• Work with the police design advisor - they can help
measure local borough „pushback‟ against CT design.

10. 10
Buyers of CT services need to look for:
• Qualified and experienced design consultants - RSES
• Approaches guided by CPNI, NACTSO and blessed by
local police specialists
• Mitigation measures that match the space usage,
threats, aesthetics and importantly risk appetite
• Mitigation measures that come with acceptable life-
span costs
• Threat response scalability
• Think about adjacent spaces and matching sufficiency.

11. 11
Self-help Sources

12. 12
“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get”
Warren Buffett

13. Any Questions?
chris.tomlinson@arup.com