The document discusses how information and communication technologies (ICTs) can accelerate China's economic growth while controlling carbon emissions. ICTs can contribute in four main ways: 1) increasing the value added of the ICT sector to 7.2% of GDP by 2020, 2) driving 1.6 RMB of GDP for every 1 RMB of ICT investment, 3) reducing the ICT sector's carbon footprint 64% from 190Mt CO2 in 2007 to 415Mt by 2020, and 4) enabling emission reductions of 1.4-1.7Gt CO2 by 2020 through applications like smart grids, buildings, motors and logistics. However, obstacles include a lack of awareness, capabilities, capital costs and

1. ICT and Low Carbon Growth
in China
3 December 2010
Dr Simon Zadek Dr Simon Zadek
December 2010 Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net 2010 12

2. The low carbon growth challenge
• Can ICTs
accelerate
Economic Growth • Sustaining economic growth
green
• What role transformation?
for ICTs ?
•
Carbon Emissions • Controlling carbon emissions
氧 碳
•
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net

3. Interconnected challenges and opportuni;es
Direct Indirect
ICT sector ICT enabled
Economic value added value added compe;;veness
Energy use and carbon ICT sector ICT enabled emission
emissions carbon footprint reduc;ons
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net

4. ICT sector value added ICT enabled compe;;veness
ICT sector carbon footprint ICT enabled emission reduc;ons
ICT 碳
ICT 氧 碳减
Chinese ICT Sector Value Added (100M RMB)
XX % of GDP
7.2
60,000 59,537
4.2
ICT sector to 4.0
account for 7.2% of 3.9
10,000
GDP by 2020 3.6
3.2
2.6
5,000 2.3
2.2
0
200 200 200 200 200 200 200 2008 … 2020
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 (E) (E)
4
Note: 2020 figure estimated based on current % of ICT value added/GDP in US
Source: NBS & MIIT from CCID Consulting, Jan 2009
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net 4

5. ICT sector value added ICT enabled compeNNveness
ICT
ICT
ICT sector carbon footprint ICT enabled emission reduc;ons
ICT 碳
ICT 氧 碳减
RMB of GDP per RMB of ICT investment in OECD countries
ICT GDP
Each RMB of
increase in ICT asset
base creates around
RMB1.6 of GDP per
year
Source: OECD Productivity Database, September 2005,
www.oecd.org/statistics/productivity; World Bank Databank; team analysis
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net

6. ICT sector value added ICT enabled compeNNveness
ICT
ICT
ICT sector carbon footprint ICT enabled emission reduc;ons
ICT 碳
ICT 氧 碳减
China’s global Networked Readiness rank, max = 1; min = 133
Environment Readiness Usage
China ranks lower
globally in terms of
enabling
environment for ICT
Total Market Poli;cal& Infra Ind‐ Business Gov‐ Ind‐ Business Gov‐
regulatory Ividual
ernment Ividual
Ernment
Source: Global Information Technology Report, 2009-2010, 2010 World Economic Forum; team analysis
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net 6

7. ICT sector value added ICT enabled compe;;veness
ICT
ICT
ICT sector carbon footprint ICT enabled emission reduc;ons
ICT 氧 碳减
ICT value chain footprint
ICT 碳
China’s ICT footprint
growing from Raw materials Manufacturing Use Disposal/recycling
190MtCO2 in 2007
to 415Mt by 2020
• 2007 ICT footprint in China of 190 Mt CO2e in 2007 (2.4 % of China total).
• By 2020 footprint projected to reach 415 Mt (3 – 3.3% of China total)
•
•
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net 7

8. ICT sector value added ICT enabled compe;;veness
ICT
ICT
ICT sector carbon footprint ICT enabled emission reduc;ons
ICT 氧 碳减
Overall China emissions intensity China ICT sector emissions intensity
PotenNal tCO2e/RMBm GDP tCO2e/RMBm value add
reducNon in ICT
carbon intensity
of 64% from '$#!!! '$#!!!
2007 to 2020 '"#!!! '"#!!!
'!#!!! 40‐45% '!#!!!
&#!!! &#!!!
%#!!! %#!!! ‐64%
$#!!! $#!!!
"#!!! "#!!!
! !
2005 2020 2007 2020
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net 8

9. ICT sector value added ICT enabled compe;;veness
ICT
ICT
ICT sector carbon footprint ICT enabled emission reducNons
ICT 碳
Emissions intensity target
减
ICT contribution
ICT 减
ICT enables emission China emissions intensity, tCO2e/RMBm GDP
reducNons of 1.4 – 1.7Gt 氧 碳 ,吨 氧 碳 /GDP
CO2 by 2020, or 13‐18% of
intensity reducNon target
‐40‐45%
13‐18%
2005 2020
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net

10. ICT sector value added ICT enabled compe;;veness
ICT
ICT
ICT sector carbon footprint ICT enabled emission reducNons
ICT 碳
ICT 氧 碳减
Emission reductions from ICT enablement in China in 2020, MtCO2e
2020 ICT 减 , 吨 氧 碳
Main ICT Smart Grids 481
potenNal in grids,
buildings, motors Smart Buildings
*
and logisNcs
Smart Motors *
Smart Logis;cs *
Dematerializa;on *
Total 1,536
1,382 1,689
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net

11. ICT sector value added ICT enabled compe;;veness
ICT
ICT
ICT sector carbon footprint ICT enabled emission reducNons
ICT 碳
ICT 氧 碳减
Comparison of breakdown of ICT enablement potenNal across regions
Smart motors have
a relaNvely higher
Demate‐
potenNal in China rializa;on 11% 7% 9% 8%
100%
than average and Smart 19%
15%
motors
30%
the US Smart 23%
36%
logis;cs 18%
Smart 29%
21% 25% 25%
buildings
Smart 14%
grids
China World US Germany
Source: Smart 2020; Smart2020-US; Smart2020 – Germany; team analysis
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net

12. Summary in numbers
Each RMB of ICT
ICT sector ICT enabled
investment drives
7.2% of GDP by 2020 value added compe;;veness
RMB1.6 of GDP per
year
190Mt CO2 in 2007,
falling 64% in 13‐18% of 2020
ICT sector ICT enabled emission
intensity by 2020 emissions intensity
carbon footprint reduc;ons
target
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net

13. ICT impacts green transforma;on in four ways
New knowledge ICT sector ICT enabled
driven industry Accelerate
value added compe;;veness
growth
Greening ICT Green the
sector ICT sector ICT enabled emission economy
carbon footprint reduc;ons
ICT
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net

14. What are the obstacles?
• InformaNon and awareness about the •
poten;al for cost and energy savings.
• Capability to implement and integrate •
ICT enabled solu;ons.
• Capital cost of investments in ICT.
•
• Return on investment in ICT.
•
• Business models for new technologies.
• CoordinaNon of systemic •
transforma;ons of infrastructure. •
How can policy help to overcome these obstacles?
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net

15. Businesses Policies and partnerships
Cities and regions
National government
Green procurement.
CreaNng protocols for measuring the
emission savings from ICTs
IntegraNng ICT into overall strategy for
industrial energy efficiency.
IntegraNng demand management soluNons
into the smart grid.
ConNnue to develop a stronger ICT
infrastructure.
How best to develop a policy roadmap?
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net

16. Thank-you!
3 December 2010
Dr Simon Zadek Dr Simon Zadek
simon@zadek.net simon@zadek.net
Dr Simon Zadek www.zadek.net