This document is a report from yStats.com that provides forecasts for China's B2C e-commerce sales from 2017 to 2021. It obtains forecasts from various sources and includes them in tables and charts along with information about methodology and definitions. The key findings are that China is projected to become the world's largest e-commerce market, surpassing 1 trillion euros in sales within the next few years. Growth rates are expected to decline slightly each year but remain in the double digits. Rising mobile commerce and expansion to rural areas are cited as major drivers of continued strong growth in China's B2C e-commerce sector.
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1. CHINA B2C E-COMMERCE SALES FORECASTS: 2017 TO 2021
PUBLICATION DATE: NOVEMBER 2017
PAGE 2 GENERAL INFORMATION I PAGE 3 KEY FINDINGS I PAGE 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS I PAGE 5 REPORT-SPECIFIC SAMPLE CHARTS
I PAGE 6 METHODOLOGY I PAGE 7 RELATED REPORTS I PAGE 8 CLIENTS I PAGE 9-10 FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
PAGE 11 ORDER FORM I PAGE 12 TERMS AND CONDITIONS
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China B2C E-Commerce Sales Forecasts 2017 to 2021
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QUESTIONS
ANSWERED
IN THIS REPORT
How large is China’s online retail market predicted to be by 2021?
What growth rates are expected for retail E-Commerce sales in China through 2021?
What are the main E-Commerce growth drivers in China?
How high China’s share of global online sales in 2016 and what is the forecast for 2021?
Which percentage of retail E-Commerce sales in China stems from mobile in 2017?
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RESEARCH
Our reports are exclusively based on secondary market research. Our researchers derive
information and data from a variety of reliable published sources and compile the data into
understandable and easy-to-use formats.
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CHINA B2C E-COMMERCE SALES FORECASTS: 2017 TO 2021
3. CHINA’S ONLINE RETAIL MARKET TO REACH OVER 1 TRILLION EUROS
China is the world’s largest B2C E-Commerce market, accounting for a double-digit
share of global online sales. More than half a billion people shop online in China, with the E-
Commerce share of total retail sales reaching twice as high as the global average. Within the
next few years, China is expected to set a new record by generating E-Commerce sales of
over 1 trillion Euros, including B2C and C2C online retail. Five out of six original sources
cited in the yStats.com publication concur with this prediction, although disagree on the
specific year when this milestone will be reached. Another common projection is the decline
of year-on-year growth rates over the forecast period compared to the previous years due
to increased maturity of the market, although the compound annual growth rate in the
period from 2016 to 2021 is still projected to remain in the double-digits.
Among the key drivers of the online retail sales growth in China is the rise of mobile
shopping as the main mode of E-Commerce. In the first half of 2017, M-Commerce
accounted for more than three-quarters of online retail sales in China, according to several
market estimates cited in the yStats.com report. The convenience of mobile shopping is
expected to further spur the overall E-Commerce growth over the forecast period. Another
major growth driver is the proliferation of online shopping in smaller cities and rural areas.
Between 2015 and 2016, E-Commerce sales in rural China more than doubled, but still
accounted for less than one-fifth of the nationwide online retail sales. Considering the
significant proportion of China’s population living in rural areas, higher Internet and online
shopper penetration rates combined with the expansion of delivery coverage of the major
market players is projected to contribute to the E-Commerce boom.
CHINA B2C E-COMMERCE SALES FORECASTS: 2017 TO 2021
3
4. MANAGEMENT SUMMARY
MARKET OVERVIEW AND INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
B2C E-Commerce Market Overview, November 2017
China’s Share of Global E-Commerce Sales, by Two Comparative Estimates, 2016 & 2021f
China’s B2C E-Commerce Sales, in USD billion, B2C E-Commerce Share of Total Retail Sales, in %, and CAGR, in %,
Compared to Global Regions and Worldwide, 2011, 2016 & 2021f
Number of Online Shoppers, in millions, and Penetration, in % of Internet Users, 2012 - 2016 & H1 2017
Product Categories Purchased Online, via Mobile Apps and in Physical Stores, in % of Consumers, 2016
Breakdown of Payment Methods Used in E-Commerce, in % of Online Shoppers, 2016
M-Commerce Sales, in CNY trillion and in % of Total Retail E-Commerce Sales, by Two Comparative Estimates, Q1
2016 - Q2 2017
Top 5 Market Players by Share of B2C E-Commerce GMV, in %, H1 2017
OVERVIEW OF SALES AND SHARES FORECASTS
Retail E-Commerce Sales (incl. B2C and C2C), in USD billion, and CAGR, in %, by Four Comparative Estimates, 2016 –
2021f
Retail E-Commerce Sales (incl. B2C and C2C), in CNY billion, and CAGR, in %, by Four Comparative Estimates, 2014 –
2019f
E-Commerce Share of Total Retail Sales, in %, by Six Comparative Estimates, 2014 - 2021f
Breakdown of Retail E-Commerce Sales by B2C and C2C, in %, 2012 – 2019f
SALES FORECASTS
Retail E-Commerce Sales (incl. B2C and C2C), in USD billion, and Year-on-Year Change, in %, 2016 – 2021f
B2C E-Commerce Sales, in USD billion, 2016 & 2021f, and CAGR, in %, 2016 - 2021f
Retail E-Commerce Sales (incl. B2C and C2C), in USD billion, 2016 & 2021f, and CAGR, in %, 2016 – 2021f
Retail E-Commerce Sales (incl. B2C and C2C), in USD billion, 2016 & 2020f, and CAGR, in %, 2016 – 2020f
Retail E-Commerce Sales (incl. B2C and C2C), in CNY trillion, and Year-on-Year Change, in %, 2014 – 2019f
B2C E-Commerce Sales, in CNY trillion, and Year-on-Year Change, in %, 2014 – 2019f
Retail E-Commerce Sales (incl. B2C and C2C), in CNY billion, and Year-on-Year Change, in %, 2014 – 2019f
Retail E-Commerce Sales (incl. B2C and C2C), in CNY trillion, and Year-on-Year Change, in %, 2014 – 2017f
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CHINA B2C E-COMMERCE SALES FORECASTS: 2017 TO 2021
TABLE OF CONTENTS
4
1
3
4
6. GENERAL METHODOLOGY OF OUR MARKET REPORTS
Secondary Market Research
The reports are compiled based on secondary market research.
Secondary research is information gathered from previously published
sources. Our reports are solely based on information and data acquired
from national and international statistical offices, industry and trade
associations, business reports, business and company databases,
journals, company registries, news portals and many other reliable
sources. By using various sources we ensure maximum objectivity for all
obtained data. As a result, companies gain a precise and unbiased
impression of the market situation.
Cross referencing of data is conducted in order to ensure
validity and reliability.
The source of information and its release date are provided on
every chart. It is possible that the information contained in one chart is
derived from several sources. If this is the case, all sources are mentioned
on the chart.
The reports include mainly data from the last 12 months prior
to the date of report publication. Exact publication dates are mentioned in
every chart.
Definitions
The reports take into account a broad definition of B2C E-
Commerce, which might include mobile commerce. As definitions may
vary among sources, exact definition used by the source (if available) is
included at the bottom of the chart.
Chart Types
Our reports include text charts, pie charts, bar charts, rankings,
line graphs and tables. Every chart contains an Action Title, which
summarizes the main idea/finding of the chart and a Subtitle, which
provides necessary information about the country, the topic, units or
measures of currency, and the applicable time period(s) to which the data
refers. With respect to rankings, it is possible that the summation of all
categories amounts to more than 100%. In this case, multiple answers were
possible, which is noted at the bottom of the chart.
Report Structure
Reports are comprised of the following elements, in the following
order: Cover page, preface, legal notice, methodology, definitions, table of
contents, management summary (summarizing main information
contained in each section of report) and report content (divided into
sections and chapters). When available, we also include forecasts in our
report content. These forecasts are not our own; they are published by
reliable sources. Within Global and Regional reports, we include all major
developed and emerging markets, ranked in order of importance by using
evaluative criteria such as sales figures.
Notes and Currency Values
If available, additional information about the data collection, for
example the time of survey and number of people surveyed, is provided in
the form of a note. In some cases, the note (also) contains additional
information needed to fully understand the contents of the respective data.
When providing information about amounts of money, local
currencies are most often used. When referencing currency values in the
Action Title, the EUR values are also provided in brackets. The conversions
are always made using the average currency exchange rate for the
respective time period. Should the currency figure be in the future, the
average exchange rate of the past 12 months is used.
METHODOLOGY OF OUR CHINA B2C E-COMMERCE SALES FORECASTS 2017 TO 2021
Report Coverage
This report covers the forecasts for retail E-Commerce sales in
China. The report is based purely on secondary market research and does
not contain any sales forecasts produced by the report publisher.
The forecasts cited in this report were produced by various
reputable sources and differ in definition, methodology and the time
period referenced. The sources may refer to B2C E-Commerce sales as
online retail sales, Internet retailing sales, E-Commerce sales or online
shopping/online retail GMV. Most of the sources include both B2C and
C2C sales in their sales definitions, as is also stated on the respective
subtitles. To distinguish the share of B2C E-Commerce, a chart was
included showing an estimate for B2C E-Commerce’s share of total retail
E-Commerce sales in China. Furthermore, two of the sources published
forecasts for pure B2C E-Commerce sales, which are also included in this
report. The majority of original sources excluded travel and/or other
services from their definition and included M-Commerce sales.
Most of the forecasts were published within the previous 12
months.
Report Structure
The report starts with an Overview and International
Comparisons chapter. It opens with a qualitative overview of the B2C E-
Commerce market in China (a text chart). The country’s share of global E-
Commerce sales in 2016 and 2021 is revealed, and the country’s E-
Commerce CAGR and online share of retail sales forecasts are compared
to other regions worldwide. Next, some key market characteristics,
including online shopper penetration, top product categories purchased
online, leading payment methods, top B2C E-Commerce market players
and M-Commerce sales forecasts are provided.
The next chapter contains an overview of all sales forecasts
included for this country summarized in one table, with a year span 2014
through 2021. Not all the years were covered by each of the sources. Within
this section, the forecasts that contain the years 2016 and 2021 are
presented first and ranked by CAGR in 2016 through 2021. All other
forecasts are ranked so that the most far reaching forecasts in terms of
years covered are presented first. If forecasts from several sources end
with the same year, they are ranked by sales volume predicted for this year.
Besides the sales volumes, the table also includes the names of the
respective sources, definitions where available and CAGR if available for the
years 2016 through 2021.
A summary of forecasts regarding the E-Commerce share of
retail sales is presented next, with a year span 2014 to 2021. Not all the
years were covered by each of the sources.
The last chapter contains charts with individual sales forecasts
from the summary table. The sales values shown on the chart are in the
currency as used by the source. The conversion rates used in the action
titles refer to the average rate for 12 months to the 1st
of October, 2017. If
the source reported year-on-year growth rates or CAGR, these numbers
were included as in the source; where no growth numbers were available in
the source, they were calculated from the provided sales values.
CHINA B2C E-COMMERCE SALES FORECASTS: 2017 TO 2021
6
7. China B2C E-Commerce Market 2017
BRIC B2C E-Commerce Markets 2017
Asia-Pacific Online Payment Methods: First Half 2017
Asia-Pacific M-Commerce 2017
Asia-Pacific Cross-Border E-Commerce 2017
India B2C E-Commerce Market 2017
South Korea B2C E-Commerce Market 2017
Southeast Asia B2C E-Commerce Market 2017
Vietnam B2C E-Commerce Market 2017
Indonesia B2C E-Commerce Market 2017
Thailand B2C E-Commerce Market 2017
Singapore B2C E-Commerce Market 2017
Malaysia B2C E-Commerce Market 2017
Innovation Trends in Global Retail and Payments 2017
Global M-Commerce 2017
Global Digital Gaming Market 2017
Global Online Payment Methods: First Half 2017
Global Mobile Payment Methods: First Half 2017
Global Cross-Border B2C E-Commerce 2017
May 2017
September 2017
August 2017
June 2017
February 2017
May 2017
June 2017
May 2017
May 2017
April 2017
April 2017
April 2017
April 2017
October 2017
June 2017
August 2017
August 2017
August 2017
February 2017
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