Blockchain has the potential to replace trust-based alternatives like intermediaries by establishing trust faster and more securely through cryptography. It can enable cheaper and more agile systems for many use cases. However, blockchain faces challenges related to scalability, privacy, storage constraints, and sustainability of consensus methods. Other risks include the immutability of transactions, lack of regulatory oversight, and unintended side effects beyond computer science. The feasibility of different use cases also varies depending on how well they address these challenges.

1. Future of Blockchain
Global Technology Outlook
Srinath Perera, Ph.D.
VP Research WSO2, Apache Member,
srinath@wso2.com | @srinath_perera

2. Analysis Based on ETAC
This is an analysis of blockchain, based on the Emerging Technology Analysis (ETAC) framework

3. Impact?
● Replace current alternatives to trust that are time-consuming,
expensive, and weaker (e.g. intermediaries and government
inspections.)
● It is faster, often establishing trust within a second
● It is much more secure, guarded by cryptography algorithms
and census data
● The resulting system is cheaper and more agile

4. Blockchain has many Use Cases

5. Pros and Cons

6. Challenges
● Limited scalability and latency
○ about 8 minutes and about 2 to 3 transactions per second.
○ Most use cases are not feasible under these limits.
○ Private blockchain have faster algorithms although they provide lesser guarantees.
● Limited privacy
○ Blockchain only provides pseudo anonymizations.
○ However, by analyzing the transaction graph and other related information, it is often possible to link
users to transactions.
○ Once one transaction is linked to a user, all his transactions become known.
● Storage constraints
○ each node must store the full history of the blockchain. This forestalls lightweight nodes, such as IoT
devices
○ As time passes, the history becomes larger aggravating the problem.
● Unsustainable consensus
○ The current consensus method is cumbersome and consumes a significant amount of energy.
○ Bitcoin uses more energy than Australia.

7. Risks
• Irrevocability
– Appeal is not possible
– Some use cases, this can be handled with undo transaction, but some others (e.g. land registry) mistake
is not reversible without the current owner complying
• Regulator Absence
– A regulator plays a key role in some use cases
– Although not popular, regulators play a crucial role in many systems (e.g. avoid fraud and pyramid
schemes
– With Blockchain-based systems it is impossible or expensive to fill the missing regulator’s role
• Misunderstood Side Effects
– Impact beyond CS
• Unclear Regulatory Responses
– Potential future regulations and laws governing blockchains and their use

8. Feasibility of Use Case Categories

9. Read the Paper
A detailed analysis is in our recently published paper, “A use case centric survey of Blockchain:
status quo and future directions”.

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11. THANK YOU
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