Geoffrey West's Predictive Science of Cities Speech, given at the International Economic Development Council's Leadership meeting in San Antonio, Texas.

1. IS A QUANTITATIVE,
PREDICTIVE, SCIENCE OF
CITIES CONCEIVEABLE? WHAT
CAN WE LEARN FROM PHYSICS
& BIOLOGY?
GEOFFREY WEST
SANTA FE INSTITUTE
SAID BUSINESS SCHOOL, OXFORD UNIVERSITY

2. WE LIVE IN AN EXPONENTIALLY
EXPANDING SOCIO-ECONOMIC
(URBANISED) UNIVERSE!!
1800 < 4% OF THE US POPULATION WAS URBAN
2011 > 80%
2006 > 50% WORLD’S POPULATION URBANISED
2050 > 75%
EVERY WEEK FROM NOW TILL 2050
OVER ONE MILLION PEOPLE ARE BEING
ADDED TO OUR CITIES

8. SOCIO-ECONOMIC
ENTROPY!!

13. NEED A SCIENCE OF CITIES
“GRAND UNIFIED THEORY OF
SUSTAINABILITY”
ARE THERE UNIVERSAL, QUANTIFIABLE
PRINCIPLES?
COMPLEMENT TO TRADITIONAL (QUALITATIVE)
THEORIES AND MODELS

14. ARE CITIES AND COMPANIES JUST
VERY LARGE ORGANISMS
SATISFYING THE LAWS OF BIOLOGY?
WHY DO ALL COMPANIES DIE
WHEREAS ALMOST ALL CITIES
SURVIVE?

15. • METABOLISM
• GROWTH
• AGING/DEATH
• EVOLUTION
• SLEEP/REPAIR
• DISEASE/CANCER

16. THE SEARCH FOR UNDERLYING LAWS
AND PRINCIPLES LEADING TO A
QUANTITATIVE PREDICTIVE
(COARSE-GRAINED) CONCEPTUAL
FRAMEWORK
[ENERGY & RESOURCES (METABOLISM)
vs. INFORMATION (GENOMICS)]

21. INTERSPECIFIC SIZE DISTRIBUTION
All species in a Malaysian Rainforest
3
1947
2.5
N =
log number of trunks
62 D-
1981
2.07
2 N = 55
D-1.95
1.5
1
0.5
1.5
0.5
2.5
1
2
3
log trunk diameter (cm)

23. SCALABILITY
RESILIENCE

24. Mammals vary in size by
8 orders of magnitude
Shrew Elephant
2g 2,000,000g
Blue Whale
200,000,000g

26. 300
240
Weight (g)
180
120
60
0
0 60 120 180 240 300 360
Age (day)

29. SLOPE = ¾ < 1 SUB-LINEAR

30. EXTRAORDINARY SYSTEMATIC
ECONOMY OF SCALE (THE BIGGER
YOU ARE, THE LESS NEEDED PER
“CAPITA”)
SIMILAR SCALING HOLDS TRUE
FOR ALL PHYSIOLOGICAL
PROCESSES AND LIFE HISTORY
EVENTS OVER THE ENTIRE
SPECTRUM OF LIFE

31. Metabolic rate sets the pace of life
small animals live fast and die young
heart rate scales as
-1/4 power of body mass

32. NETWORKS!!!

34. Relation between number and
size of branches within a tree

38. INCOMING METABOLISED ENERGY

MAINTENANCE
(of existing cells)
+
GROWTH
(of new cells)

43. BIOLOGY (LIFE)
a) DOMINATED BY NON-LINEAR (UNIVERSAL) 1/4 -
POWER SCALING
b) EXTRAORDINARY ECONOMIES OF SCALE (THE
BIGGER YOU ARE, THE LESS YOU NEED PER
“CAPITA”)
c) PACE OF LIFE SYSTEMATICALLY SLOWS WITH
INCREASING SIZE;
d) GROWTH IS SIGMOIDAL REACHING A STABLE
SIZE AT MATURITY
e) NETWORKS

44. ARE CITIES (AND COMPANIES)
SCALED VERSIONS OF EACH
OTHER?
DO THEY MANIFEST
“UNIVERSALITY”?

47. Kuhnert, Helbing & West, Physica A363, 96-103 (2003)

48. Example of scaling relationships
a) Total WAGES per MSA in 2004 for the
USA vs. metropolitan population.
b) SUPERCREATIVE employment per
MSA in 2003, for the USA vs. metropolitan
population.
SUPER-LINEAR
SCALING

49. Innovation measured by Patents

50. TOTAL CRIME (JAPAN)
Slope = 1.21 [1.08, 1.35]

52. UNIVERSALITY

53. THE GOOD, THE BAD & THE UGLY
DOUBLING THE SIZE OF A CITY
SYSTEMATICALLY INCREASES
INCOME, WEALTH, NUMBER OF
PATENTS, NUMBER OF
COLLEGES, NUMBER OF CREATIVE
PEOPLE, NUMBER OF POLICE, CRIME
RATE, NUMBER OF AIDS & FLU
CASES, AMOUNT OF WASTE,………..
ALL BY APPROXIMATELY 15%
REGARDLESS OF CITY

54. NETWORK DYNAMICS DETERMINES
THE PACE OF LIFE
IF THE SLOPE IS < 1 PACE OF LIFE SLOWS DOWN
IF THE SLOPE IS > 1 PACE OF LIFE SPEEDS UP

55. Pace of biological life vs.
Pace of social life
Heart Rate vs. Walking Speed vs.
Body Size

57. I. FINANCIAL MARKETS,
ECONOMIES,
GLOBAL WARMING,
ENVIRONMENT,
URBANISATION,
HEALTH,
CRIME,
POLLUTION,……….
ARE NOT INDEPENDENT
THEY ARE ALL HIGHLY COUPLED, INTER-
RELATED COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS

58. UNIVERSALITY OF SOCIAL
NETWORKS (CLUSTERING
HIERARCHIES)

59. II. ACCELERATION OF THREATS TO
SUSTAINABILITY HAS ORIGIN IN SUPER -
EXPONENTIAL URBANISATION

60. III. NEED A NEW PARADIGM, A NEW
INTEGRATED CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK:
SYSTEMIC, HOLISTIC, QUANTITATIVE,
PREDICTIVE

61. CITIES AND URBAN LIFE
a) SUPER-LINEAR DOMINATED BY INNOVATION &
WEALTH CREATION
THE BIGGER YOU ARE, THE MORE YOU GET PER
CAPITA OF EVERYTHING FROM INCOME AND
INNOVATION TO CRIME, POLLUTION AND
DISEASE - ALL TO THE SAME DEGREE (~15%
FOR EVERY DOUBLING OF SIZE)
b) SYSTEMATIC INCREASE OF PACE OF LIFE
c) UNBOUNDED GROWTH vs COLLAPSE

62. Growth Equation

63. N(t)
N(0)
t
b<1 (SUB-LINEAR) BOUNDED GROWTH

64. b >1 (SUPER-LINEAR)
SUPER-EXPONENTIAL
UNBOUNDED GROWTH COLLAPSE

65. UNBOUNDED GROWTH
N(t) REQUIRES ACCELERATING CYCLES
OF INNOVATION TO AVOID COLLAPSE
N(t)
N3(0) .
N2(0) .
N(t)
N1(0) .
N(t)
N(0)
t t
tc

66. UNBOUNDED GROWTH LEADING TO
“FINITE-TIME SINGULARITY” & COLLAPSE
UNLESS INNOVATIONS (SYSTEMATICALLY)
OCCCUR FASTER AND FASTER
CONTINUOUS TENSION BETWEEN:
INNOVATION & WEALTH CREATION vs
ECONOMIES OF SCALE

67. Population growth for New York City
1790 - 2003

68. Successive cycles of superlinear innovation reset the singularity and postpone
instability and subsequent collapse. The relative population growth rate of New
York City over time reveals periods of accelerated (super-exponential) growth.
Successive shorter periods of super exponential growth appear, separated by
brief periods of deceleration. (Inset) tc for each of these periods vs. population
at the onset of the cycle. Observations are well fit with β = 1.09 (green line).

69. Average “idealised, universal”
characteristics of cities of a given size
(constrained by underlying principles and
dynamics of network structures -
manifested in scaling laws)
vs.
Characteristics of specific cities as
measured by deviations from scaling
laws representing their individuality and
local environment and conditions

70. 2003 Patenting Rankings
5
Cornwallis, OR (1)
4
SanJose (4)
3
Bosto (107)
n
2
Pho i x (155)
en
1
0
-1 Den (206)
ver
-2 NewY o (272)
rk
-3
-4 Abilen (359)
e
-5
1
14
27
40
53
66
79
92
10 5
11 8
13 1
14 4
15 7
17 0
18 3
19 6
20 9
22 2
23 5
24 8
26 1
27 4
28 7
30 0
31 3
32 6
33 9
35 2

74. Public sculptures cast in
metal are being substituted
with cheap plastic replicas to
prevent them being stolen by
thieves feeding the
voracious appetite for
commodities in China and
India.
1 September 2011
The Historic Houses
Association said this
weekend that many stately
home owners were putting
antique garden statues into
storage and displaying
plastic copies instead.

75. OUR “NATURAL” METABOLIC RATE ~ 90 watts
OUR SOCIAL METABOLIC RATE ~ 11,000 watts !!!
WE ARE EQUIVALENT TO A 30,000 Kg GORILLA !!!
REPRODUCTION RATE OF ~ ONE OFFSPRING PER
15 years

76. JAMES BROWN (UNM/SFI)
BRIAN ENQUIST (U. ARIZONA)
WOODY WOODRUFF (LANL)
VAN SAVAGE (HARVARD)
JAMIE GILOOLLY (U. FLORIDA)
DREW ALLEN (UCSB)
MICHELLE GIRVAN (U. MARYLAND)
ALEX HERMAN (UCSF)
CHRIS KEMPES (MIT)

77. LUIS BETTENCOURT (LOS ALAMOS/SFI - PHYSICS)
JOSE LOBO (CORNELL/ASU - URBAN ECONOMICS)
DEBORAH STRUMSKY (HARVARD/UNC - ECONOMICS)
HYEJIN YOUN (SFI)
MARCUS HAMILTON (SFI/UNM)
NATHANIEL RODRIGUEZ (SFI)
DIRK HELBING (ETH ZURICH - TRANSPORT/PHYSICS)
ERICH RAUCH (PHYSICS/BIOLOGY - MIT/PRINCETON)
DAVID LANE (U. REGGIO - STATISTICS/ECONOMICS)
SANDER van der LEEUW (PARIS/ASU - ANTHROPOLOGY)
DENISE PUMAIN (PARIS - URBAN GEOGRAPHY)
SPYROS SKOURAS (ECONOMICS - U. ATHENS)

78. PATRONS:
NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION
GENE & CLARE THAW CHARITABLE TRUST
BRYAN & JUNE ZWAN FOUNDATION
ROCKEFELLER FOUNDATION
McDONNELL FOUNDATION