Scenario analysis for understanding the future of dietary seafood intake: integration of ecological and nutritional modelling approaches
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Global Workshop on Nutrition-sensitive Fish Agri-food Systems 5th - 8th December 2017, Siem Reap, Cambodia
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Scenario analysis for understanding the future of dietary seafood intake: integration of ecological and nutritional modelling approaches
- 1. Scenario analysis for understanding the future of dietary seafood intake: integration of ecological and nutritional modelling approaches Jessica A. Gephart PostdoctoralFellow, The National Socio-EnvironmentalSynthesis Center Christopher D. Golden Research Scientist, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health Bapu Vaitla Postdoctoralfellow, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health Global Workshop on Nutrition-sensitiveFish Agri-food Systems, Siem Reap,Cambodia December8, 2017
- 2. The THETIS project • Ecosystem transformation economic effects on producers and consumers human nutrition and health • Motivation: declining fish catch • Producing national and global models to evaluate scenarios of large scale pressures on fish for nutrition • Goal to provide evidence and prompt discussion around scenarios for policymaking and advocacy • Collaboration of universities, NGOs, and policymakers
- 3. <50% -51 – -30% -31 – 10% -10 – 6% -5 - -1% 0 – 4% 5 – 19% 20 – 49% 50 – 100% >100% Cheung et al. (2014) Climate change and fisheries Change in maximum catch potential 2041–2060 relative to 1981 – 2000
- 4. Fish declines and nutrition dependence Golden et al. (2016), Nature
- 5. 1. Useful for dealing with uncertainty 2. Presents range of possible futures 3. Prompts dialogue about desirable futures 4. Useful for charting courses Why study scenarios?
- 7. Percent change relative to 1981 – 2000 Catch-climate change projection (Cheung et al., 2014)
- 8. Percent change relative to 1981 – 2000 Catch-climate change projection Country economic models Partial equilibrium model based on AsiaFish model Global economic model Trade and diet substitution scenarios (Cheung et al., 2014)
- 9. Percent change relative to 1981 – 2000 Catch-climate change projection Country economic models Partial equilibrium model based on AsiaFish model Global economic model Nutrition impacts GENuS Database: See Smith et al. (2016) PlosOne(Cheung et al., 2014) Trade and diet substitution scenarios
- 12. 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 Projectedcatch,bytaxon,artisanal sector,RCP8.5 Others Hilsa shad Silver pomfret Fourfinger threadfin Bombay duck Indo-Pacific king mackerel Indian mackerel Acetes shrimps Thryssas Threadfins Drums, croakers Sea catfishes, coblers Projected artisanal catch by taxon
- 13. -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 BH3 BH4 BH5 BH6 BH7 BH8 BH9 BH10 BH11 BH12 BH13 BH14 BH15 BH16 BH17 BH18 ANNUAL CHANGE (%) IN TOTAL FISH CONSUMPTION Urban Rural Changes in urban & rural consumption Scenario combinations of: • Climate scenario • Aquaculture growth rate • Economic growth rate • Inland capture trend • Aquaculture demand
- 14. Rural iron-deficient population Urban iron-deficient population Changes in nutrition
- 15. Rural zinc-deficient population Urban zinc-deficient population Changes in nutrition
- 16. Percent change relative to 1981 – 2000 Catch-climate change projection Country economic models Partial equilibrium model based on AsiaFish model Global economic model Nutrition impacts GENuS Database: See Smith et al. (2016) PlosOne(Cheung et al., 2014) Trade and diet substitution scenarios
- 17. Global scenarios National catch decline Global distribution Tradeopenness Nutritional Need-based GDP Protectionism Countries meet own needs and remaining seafood distributed through trade based on need Countries meet own needs and remaining seafood distributed through trade based on GDP Free All seafood is distributed through trade based on need All seafood is distributed through trade based on GDP Trade • How much is replaced? • Composition of substitutes (including farmed fish)Substitution in diets
- 18. Global scenarios National catch decline Global distribution Tradeopenness Nutritional Need-based GDP Protectionism Countries meet own needs and remaining seafood distributed through trade based on need Countries meet own needs and remaining seafood distributed through trade based on GDP Free All seafood is distributed through trade based on need All seafood is distributed through trade based on GDP Trade • How much is replaced? • Composition of substitutes (including farmed fish)Substitution in diets Nutrition outcomes
- 19. Interactive Management Tool Tool built by Andrea Julca, UMD
- 20. Interactive Management Tool Tool built by Andrea Julca, UMD
- 21. Summary Scenario analysis: 1. Useful for dealing with uncertainty 2. Presents range of possible futures 3. Prompts dialogue about desirable futures 4. Useful for charting courses