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Welcome PPP Models to Build Airport Infrastructure Matching the Demand in Central Europe 8 th  CEI Summit Economic Forum
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1
Central Europe is in terms of traffic volume one of the smallest world’s markets but with strong growth potential ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Airport Information 2004 Key Points 1 Passenger Traffic by Regions 2004 Cargo Traffic by Regions 2004
The CEI countries have been witnessing growing passenger and cargo volumes until 2003….. Source: IATA, Lufthansa Consulting 1 Passenger Volumes  CEI countries  (Number of Pax) Cargo Volumes  CEI countries  (tonnes)
… but, without Italy and Austria, CE countries showed only growths in passenger traffic but none in air cargo Source: IATA, Lufthansa Consulting 1 Passenger Volumes  CEI countries  (Number of Pax) Cargo Volumes  CEI countries  (tonnes)
But for the next years GDP and passenger forecasts are above world average underpinning development potentials GDP Development 2005-2005 CEI countries vs World Average Passenger Forecast 2005-2008 CEI countries vs. World Average Source: IATA, Global Insight, Lufthansa Consulting 1
Increasing importance for aviation as main transport mode in international traffic flows   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: ACI, Albatross, Lufthansa Consulting; Sample of 49 Central European Countries Passenger Traffic at Central European Airports 2004 Key Points 1 => high growth potential Country Passengers  tsd % 80.345 Total 8.1% 153 Moldova 5.3% 191 Belarus 5.1% 208 Slovakia 7.6% 308 Bosnia/ 6.0% 403 Macedonia 6.7% 459 Albania 5.4% 797 Slovenia 6.1% 1.348 Croatia 5.9% 1.463 Bulgaria 6.1% 1.663 Ukraine 7.7% 1.776 Yugoslavia 5.7% 2.030 Romania 5.8% 4.523 Hungary 7.5% 4.828 Poland 7.1% 6.039 Czech Rep. 4.0% 13.917 Austria 4.2% 40.239 Italy
There is a great potential for air cargo development ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: ACI, Albatross, Lufthansa Consulting; Sample of 49 Central European Countries Air Cargo Traffic at Central Europen Airports 2004 Key Points 1 Country Cargo % Total 10,6% 772 Bosnia/Herz. 5,0% 957 Macedonia 3,0% 1.824 Slovenia 4,5% 2.973 Croatia 5,3% 3.063 Bulgaria 4,2% 3.225 Ukraine 1,6% 4.214 Romania 16,5% 7.290 Serbia / Mont 7,5% 11.120 Poland 6,9% 15.427 Czech Rep. -0,7% 19.895 Hungary 5,2% 63.893 Austria 6,2% 247.099 Italy 381.750
Capital expenditures in Central Europe airports increased in the last 5 years Major Airport Developments in Central Europe (> 500 mill. USD) 1 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: ACI Airport Economics Survey 2004 Airport Capital Expenditure by Region (in mill. USD)
Barriers have to be removed to continue with infrastructure improvements allowing for sustained expansion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Example Bulgaria ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Example Hungary Source: local and international press 1
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],2
Some privatisation trends...  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],2
Airport Privatisation activity is increasing after a period of standstill Examples
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3
What is a public-private-partnership (PPP)?  ,[object Object],[object Object],3
Understanding the motivation of the public and private sector as well as the lenders‘ one is key for any PPP 3 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Public Sector ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Lenders ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Private Sector
Private Sector participation trend in airport infrastructure: Which model option meets the interest of all parties? Roles Option 1 Option 2  Option 3 Ownership Investment Management/ Operation Policy Options/ Roles Option 1 Option 2  Option 3 Ownership Investment Management/ Operation PPP Options ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3 State Private Sector Private Sector Private Sector Private Sector Private Sector ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],LDO = Lease-Develop-Operate BTO = Build-Transfer-Operate BOT = Build - Operate - Transfer BOOT = Build - Own - Operate - Transfer BOT = Build - Operate - Transfer BOOT = Build - Own - Operate - Transfer State State Private Sector
Successful PPPs are based on attractive assets, clearly defined concessions, and a sound business plan  2 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Airport ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Concession ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Business Plan
The regulatory environment and the qualifications of the project partners are prerequisites for goal achievement 2 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Regulatory Environment ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Project Parties
Certain risk factors in the Central European airport market need to be addressed and managed  RISK! 3 Airport industry risk  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1 Macro-economic risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],2 Political risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3 Project risk ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],4
The project’s funding life cycle is driven by the partners’ objectives, by the nature of the business and by associated risks 3 Traffic growth Airport concept Air transport market potential analysis Institutional Investors Public Market Securitization Banks / Loans Financial Institutions ABLs Customers Trade Lease Mezzanine Finance Government Suppliers Strategic Partners Early Stage Equity Funds Mezzanine Finance Private Funds  Angels Micro-financing Sources of Financing Maturity Full Operations Revenue Growth Capital Sourcing for Expansion Expansion Free Cash-Flow generation Positive Income (fuel growth) Growth Revenue Generation Start-up Validation of Concept Market Confirmation Seed Start-up Capital (for Feasibility Studies, Market Testing, business formation) Investment Phases  Facility and process improvement Exploitation of market potential New route development Start of operation Company formation (SPV) Airport development concept/masterplan Operations concept Route development and airport marketing concept Airport Company Activity (Conces-sionaire) GROWTH PHASE START- UP PHASE PROFIT LOSS
Agenda ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],4
The capital’s new airport project presents elements of three separate transactions 4 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Project Commercialization and sale of land of the existing airport in the central city  (350 ha)
The air transport market has distinct features ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Lufthansa Consulting Passenger Traffic 2003 - 2027 Key Points Air Cargo Traffic 2003 - 2027 4 Optimistic Conservative
The development of airport capacity to meet future demand requires investments of approx. 200 – 250 mill. Euros ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],4 2006 2010 Phase 2 Expansion 2015 Operation Development of existing airport/ Access to the new airport Land Commercialisation Phase 1 Construction
A Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) as operating company of the airport is composed of a combination of private investors  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],4 Potential Split of Shares in the SPV
Government participation in the transaction is indispensable Revenues from the low passenger (2004: 240.000) and cargo volumes (2004: 4.800 t) do not justify the investment and do not present an attractive investment opportunity. Revenues at the airport TTL investment is unlikely to be sourced from the local and regional investment community alone; alternative ways of financing need to be found. Magnitude of the investment Government Participation in the privatization ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],4
The privatisation strategy is based on a number of financial criteria for the SPV as the operating concessionaire 4 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
To enhance the feasibility of the project to investors, all revenue sources will have to be transferred to SPV  4 SPV Pax and A/C Handling Services Landside Service Concessions ... Airside Service Concessions Cargo Handling Concessions ... Concession Revenue Concession Revenue
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],4
For further contact: Dr. Raphael von Heereman Executive Director  Lufthansa Consulting GmbH Von-Gablenz-Str. 2 – 6 50679 Cologne Germany Tel.: +49 (0)221 88 99 6 - 56 Fax: +49 (0)221 88 99 6 - 60 e-mail: Raphael.Hereman@lhconsulting.com www.lhconsulting.com
Thank you for your attention

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PPP Airport Infrastructure Central Europe

  • 1. Welcome PPP Models to Build Airport Infrastructure Matching the Demand in Central Europe 8 th CEI Summit Economic Forum
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  • 5. The CEI countries have been witnessing growing passenger and cargo volumes until 2003….. Source: IATA, Lufthansa Consulting 1 Passenger Volumes CEI countries (Number of Pax) Cargo Volumes CEI countries (tonnes)
  • 6. … but, without Italy and Austria, CE countries showed only growths in passenger traffic but none in air cargo Source: IATA, Lufthansa Consulting 1 Passenger Volumes CEI countries (Number of Pax) Cargo Volumes CEI countries (tonnes)
  • 7. But for the next years GDP and passenger forecasts are above world average underpinning development potentials GDP Development 2005-2005 CEI countries vs World Average Passenger Forecast 2005-2008 CEI countries vs. World Average Source: IATA, Global Insight, Lufthansa Consulting 1
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  • 14. Airport Privatisation activity is increasing after a period of standstill Examples
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  • 22. The project’s funding life cycle is driven by the partners’ objectives, by the nature of the business and by associated risks 3 Traffic growth Airport concept Air transport market potential analysis Institutional Investors Public Market Securitization Banks / Loans Financial Institutions ABLs Customers Trade Lease Mezzanine Finance Government Suppliers Strategic Partners Early Stage Equity Funds Mezzanine Finance Private Funds Angels Micro-financing Sources of Financing Maturity Full Operations Revenue Growth Capital Sourcing for Expansion Expansion Free Cash-Flow generation Positive Income (fuel growth) Growth Revenue Generation Start-up Validation of Concept Market Confirmation Seed Start-up Capital (for Feasibility Studies, Market Testing, business formation) Investment Phases Facility and process improvement Exploitation of market potential New route development Start of operation Company formation (SPV) Airport development concept/masterplan Operations concept Route development and airport marketing concept Airport Company Activity (Conces-sionaire) GROWTH PHASE START- UP PHASE PROFIT LOSS
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  • 30. To enhance the feasibility of the project to investors, all revenue sources will have to be transferred to SPV 4 SPV Pax and A/C Handling Services Landside Service Concessions ... Airside Service Concessions Cargo Handling Concessions ... Concession Revenue Concession Revenue
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  • 32. For further contact: Dr. Raphael von Heereman Executive Director Lufthansa Consulting GmbH Von-Gablenz-Str. 2 – 6 50679 Cologne Germany Tel.: +49 (0)221 88 99 6 - 56 Fax: +49 (0)221 88 99 6 - 60 e-mail: Raphael.Hereman@lhconsulting.com www.lhconsulting.com
  • 33. Thank you for your attention