13. Page 13 of 25
.'td> </td><td align="right" width=" 12">
<table width="212" border="" cellspacing="O" cellpadding="0">
<tr valign="rniddle"> f'sz=I"< rf"aa
<td><font face="Arial, Helvet ca, sans-seri'sz=""'ahrf"aa
cript:;" onClick="wifldow.opef~l(etaf_art -cle.jsp?CID=105l-030403E&SECTION=Enviro
-Sci' ,'emailarticle', 'scrollbars=yes,wi ith=280,height=400');"><img src="images/
article~menubar-email.gif" width="12" height="110"1 border="0"I></a>
<a style="color:#OOOOQO;texl -decoration:none;" href="javascriptu;"
onClick="window.openfl(etaf~article.jsp? ,ID=1051-030403E&SBCTION=Enviro-Scil, em
ailarticle,' ,Iscrollbars=yes,width=280,h ight=400');";>E-Mail</a></font></td>
<td><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"1> <a href="1java
script:doBookmarkO"><img src=" images/a-ticlejnenubar-bookmark.gif" width="15"
height="10" border="0"'></a>
<a style="color:#000000;tex --decoration:none;"I href="javascript:doB
ookmark()">Bookmark</a></font></td>
<td><font face="Arial, Helvet~ca, sans-serif" size="l">•a href="javas
cript:;" onClick="wirndow.open( 'printer.jsp?CID=1051-030403E' , printfriendly' ,s
400
crollbars=yes,width=555,height= 'h;"> img src="jmages/article-menubar-print.g
if" width="ll1" height="10"1 border="0"></a>
<a style="color:*OOOOOQ;tex -decoration:lnone;"I href="javascript:;"
onClick="window.open( 'printer.jsp?CTD=l 51-030403E' ,)printfriendly', 'scrollbars
4
=yes,width'=555,height= 00');">Print</a></font></td>
<td><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l"1><a href="javas
cript:doSaveAsfl"><irng src="images/arti le-.menubar-save.gif" width="10" height=
"110"1 border="0"I></a>
<a style="color:#000000;text-decoration:hone;"I href="javascript:doS
aveAs 9 ">Save</a></font></td>
</table>
</table>
<table width=216 border=0 cellspacing0 :cellpadding0O align=right><
tr><td><img src=' images/20030304-climfate-large.jpg' :Width=2l2 height=151 border
=2></td></tr><tr><td><table border=0 cEllspacing=0 dellpadding=O align=right><t
r><td width=l0 bgcolor='*336699'></td><td bgcolor='4003366'><font face='Arial,
Helvetica, sans-serif' size=1 color=' # FFFFF'>TCS</font></td></tr></table></td>
<Itr></table>
<font face="Arial, Helveti a, sans-serif" size="2">
The Bush administration has proposed a common-sense review of th
e nation's climate research, one that could lead to~a course correction for dir
ecting an area of scientific inquiry t at has benefited from an infusion of ove
r $20 billion in funding in the last t n years. Considerable progress has alrea
dy been made toward understanding the complex system of climate change, but mor
e remains to be done to eliminate critical gaps in our knowledge.
<br>
<br>The
administration issued a draft outline analyzing and proposing changes to the C
limate Change Science Program and welc med all stakeholders - from scientists t
o the public - to discuss the future o- climate research. The process is intend
ed to determine what areas of climate -esearch are in need of greater funding a
n'd support.
<br>
<br>The National Research Council orga ized a panel to review
the draft. The panel was critical of t e draft, but rather than clarify the exi
sting state of climate science and res arch, the panel's members muddied the wa
ters.
file:/ID:SEARCHJ7J9_3 CEQ01 1jf.adjeeCO3sceq~txt 8/14/2003
14. Page 14 of 25
<br>
<br><b>On the One Hand, on the Other</b~
<br>
<br>On the one hand,
the panel members claimed that a human-made component of global warming has bee
in firmly established by the scientific community, thus obviating the administra
tion's call for research to reduce unce tainties over anthropogenic warming and
bolstering claims that a significant r duction in greenhouse gas emissions is
necessary. But they also said, paradoxi ally, that significantly <I>more</I> re
search funding would be necessary to re uce the scientific uncertainties relate
d to human-made global warming.
<br>
<br>One of the panelists criticized the ad
ministration's research priorities, tel-ing the <I> New York Times</I> that res
earch "that would have been cutting edg~ in 1980 is listed as a priority for th
e future."
<br>
<br>Despite this panelist's assertion, :here are longstanding
improvements needed in basic climate sc ence. For instance, a deteriorating and
insufficient network for ascertaining surface temperature measurements must be
strengthened; and understanding of the basic physics of convection that govern
s the transfer of large amounts of enery must be improved. Even after two deca
des of research in these areas, they re amn at the leading edge of problems to
be solved to reduce uncertainty in fore asts of the human-made climate impact.
<br>
<br>Moreover, the panel asserted that m re is known about a human-made war
ming trend than the Bush administration will admit. For example, one panel memb
er, Michael Prather, announced that aboit half of observed warming trend of the
last few decades is anthropogenic while the remainder is natural.
<br>
<br>Th
is assertion leaves the impression that a human-caus 'd global warming effect is
understood thoroughly enough to differentiate the human warming trend from nat
ural causes, and that research on the mtter could be concluded and funding red
uced.
<br>
<br>Scientific claims about anthropogenic warming can be traced to
the conclusions listed in the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Impacts
of Climate Variability and Change and the United Nations' Intergovernmental Pa
nel on Climate Change 2001's Third Assessment Report. But these conclusions are
uncertain because the main tools on w ich they are 'based are computer simulati
ons that have not reliably reproduced either past or current attributes of the
climate system. However, that is not surprising, since the natural influences
of climate are still difficult to model. Reducing uncertainty about natural var
iability remains a critical concern in distinguishing human and natural warming
trends.
<br>
<br>The panel's claims are thus confusing: While claiming we know
enough to act on global warming by recucing greenhouse gas emissions, the pane
1 also criticized the lack of a commit ent to substantial new funding for impro
ving climate research.
<br>
<br><b>We Know What We Don't Know </b>
<br>
<br>Th
e panel's complaints try to have thing! both ways: Either the science is comple
te (or complete enough) to move ahead with substantial cuts in carbon dioxide e
missions, or the climate forecasts are uncertain and require substantial advanc
es in order to give reliable forecasts one or two centuries into the future. In
the first case, the committee is calling for reductions in fundamental researc
file:/D:SEARCH 7U9WO3CEQ011_fLadjee0 3_ceq.txt 8/14/2003
15. Page 15 of 25
h in climate change, and a restructuring of energy policy in the U.S., with cos
ts that will be difficult to bear in th~ next decade. In the second case, the a
rgument for much more funding undercuts the previous assertion that the science
is settled.
<br>
<br>Tmplementing large and immediate cu s in greenhouse gas e
missions will be costly to human health welfare and the environment. Waiting f
or two or three decades while the techn logy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
improves and becomes more affordable d es not, according to computer simulatio
ns shown in the UN assessment, add sign ficant warming at the end of 100 years.
it would make greenhouse gas cuts easi r and more affordable. most important,
prioritized research in that interval may allow scientific progress in understa
nding climate physics and defining the Rxtent of human-made climate change - wh
ich was the original point of the draft document.
</f ont>
<br>
<cbr>
<a href="javascript:history.back();" oniMouse~ver="window.status=Back
return true" onMouseout="1window.stat s=' '; return true"><img src=" images/bac
k2 .gif" border=0></a>
<br>
<br>
<cener> <table width="1212" border="10" cellspaciig="0" cellpadding="0"1>
<tr valign="middle">
<td><cfont face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1"><ca href="javas
cript:; " onClick="window.open( 'etaf-article.jsp?CID' 1051-030403E&SECTION~Enviro
4
-Sci', 'emailarticle,',Iscr'ollbars=yes,width=280,height= 00');"><img src="images/
articlemjenubar~email.gJif" width="12" beight="10" bdrder-"O"></a>
<a style="color:*000000;text-decoration:none;"I href="1jaVascript:;`1
onClick="window.open( 'etaf_article.jspCID=105l-030403B&SECTION=Enviro-Sci'. 'em
2
ailarticle' ,'scrollbars~yes,width= 80, eight=400'); >E-Mail<c/a></font></td>
<td><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="l1"> <a href="java
script:doBookmark() "><img src="images/article menubdr-bookmfark.gif" width="15",
height="lO" border=z"0"></a>
<a style="color:*OOQOOO;te t-decoration:'none;"I href="javascript:doB
ookmarkoC I>Bookmark</a></font></td>
<td><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serbit" size="1">'ca href="1javas
cript:;" onClick="window.opel( 'printer jsp?CID=105l-030403E',,'printfriendly' , '
400
crollbars=yes,width=555,height= '); "<img src="images/article menubar~print.g
if" width="ll1" height="110"1 border="0"> /a>I
<a stYle="color:#000000;te t-decoration~none;" href="1javascript:;
onClick="window.open( 'printer.jsp?CID= 051-030403E' 'printfriendly', 'scrollbars
400
=yes,width=555,height= ¼;">Print<Ia </font></td>,
<td><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="1l"><a href="1javas
cript:doSaveAsO() ><img src="1images/art cle menubarsave.gif" width=,l0", height=
"10" border="0O"></a>
<a style="color:#OOOOOO;te t-decoration:none;" href="javascript:doS
aveAs ()">Save<c/a></font></td>
</table></center>
<br><br>
<table width="l100%"1 border='0" cellspa ing="0"1 cellpadding"'0"'>
<tr>
<td><img src="images/feedbackjfeedback.gif" width='89" height="1l3"></td>
file://D:SEARCHJU&OX03CEQO1 1Lf..adjee(03_ceq.txt 8/14/2003