An overview of horizon scanning for change management that reviews the results of previous scanning projects and presents some innovative software platforms to support futures and foresight research.

1. Wendy
Schultz
Infinite
Futures
PACITA
2015
Berlin
Germany
27
February
2015
SCANNING
to
MANAGE
DISRUPTION
and
CONTROVERSY

2. xkcd

3. BEWARE OF STRAIGHT LINES

4. Gartner
Hype
Cycle
4

5. 5

6. 6

7. CHANGE EVOLVES IN OVERLAPPING WAVES & TURBULENCE
THREE
HORIZONS
FRAMEWORK
MANAGER
VISIONARY
ENTREPRENEUR
Eg,
MUSIC,
MOVIES,
CDs,
DVDs
Eg.,
MUSIC,
MOVIES
–
transformaConal
disruptor
-­‐
iTunes
Eg,
MUSIC,
MOVIES
–
paradigm
buster
-­‐
Napster

8. Life
Cycle
of
Change
Schultz,
adapted
from
Molitor
Development
of
an
issue
Time
3rd
horizon
scienVsts;
arVsts;
radicals;
mysVcs
specialists’
journals
and
websites
laypersons’
magazines;
websites;
documentaries
newspapers;
news
magazines;
broadcast
media
insVtuVons
and
government
local;
few
cases;
emerging
issues
global;
mulVple
dispersed
cases;
trends
and
drivers
system
limits;
problems
develop;
unintended
impacts
8
Life
Cycle
of
Change

9. Foresight
quesVon
and
context
Profession,
field, market
Organisation
Problem /
question
Politics
Demo-
graphics
Economy
Environ-
ment
Science
Art, play
Technology
Lifestyles
9

10. C
H
A
N
G
E
trends,
drivers,
emerging
issues
+
-­‐
x
%
extrapolate,
assess
impacts
scenario
1
scenario
2
scenario
3
scenario
4
scenario
n
STRATEGIES
VISION
-­‐
goals,
values
-­‐
build on positives,
counter negatives
Scanning
is
the
essenCal
feedstock
for
all
subsequent
foresight
acCviCes

11. Horizon
Scanning:
Origins
• Environmental
(horizon)
scanning:
– Developed
by
Francis
Aguilar,
Harvard
Business
School,
in
Scanning
the
Business
Environment
(New
York:
MacMillan,
1967).
– Widely
accepted
by
business
(Jain
1984);
linked
to
compeVVve
intelligence.
• Issues
management:
– Fusion
of
PR
and
FS
-­‐-­‐
links
to
public
policy;
– Analysis
of
near-­‐term
issues
and
plans
to
address
them.
• Emerging
issues
analysis:
– S-­‐curve
“life-­‐cycle
of
change”
(Molitor
1977)
– Leading
ideas,
events,
authoriVes/advocates,
literature,
organisaVons,
poliVcal
jurisdicVons
(bellwether);
and
economic
acVvity
of
society
(shiks
in
producVon
mode).

12. Basic
foresight
/
scanning
terms
• Scan
source
• Scan
hit
/
datum
• Confirming
hit
/
datum
• Emerging
issue
• Trend
• Megatrend
• Driver
• Wild
cards
(black
swans)
• Scenarios
• Visions

13. Theories
of
Change
• What
do
you
think
is
the
primary
cause
of
change?
• Classic
theories
of
social
change,
eg:
• God
• ‘Great
Man’
• Environment:
challenge/response
(Toynbee)
• Cycles
(Ibn
Khaldun,
Sarkar,
Sorokin)
• Dynamic
tension
in
the
economy
(Hegel/Marx
–
thesis/anVthesis/synthesis)
• Stages
of
growth
(Rostow)
• Your
implicit
understanding
of
change
biases
your
scanning:
it
condiVons
what
you
look
for
most
13

14. 4
Modes
of
Scanning
(Choo)
• “Touring”:
undirected
viewing
-­‐
minimal
targepng,
many
sources;
sensing
early
signals.
• “Tracking”:
condiVoned
viewing
-­‐
minor
targepng,
few
sources;
sensemaking
to
establish
emergence.
• “SaVsficing”:
informal
search
-­‐
moderate
targepng,
few
sources;
learning
about
an
issue.
• “Retrieving”:
formal
search
-­‐
high
targepng,
many
sources;
deep
dives
and
in-­‐depth
issue
research.
Chun Wei Choo, ASIS Bulletin

15. ValidaVng
Scan
Data
• Problem:
useful
scan
hits
-­‐-­‐
close
enough
to
the
point
of
origin
to
allow
policy
leverage
-­‐-­‐
are
“weak
signals”;
oken
only
one
case.
• Valida,on:
– Confirma<on:
accrue
mulVple
citaVons;
– Convergence:
monitor
emerging
scienVfic
consensus;
and
– Parallax:
acquire
view
from
mulVple
perspecVves;
A
par,cipatory
team
approach
assists
valida,on.

16. Forecast:
fringe
thinking
ahead?
Empirical/
Evidence-­‐based
Research
Futures
Research,
especially
scanning
Credible;
Documented;
AuthoritaVve;
StaVsVcally
significant;
Coherent:
the
data
agree;
Consensus-­‐based:
the
experts
agree;
TheoreVcally
grounded;
Mono-­‐disciplinary.
Emerging
issues
oken
lack
apparent
credibility;
Difficult
to
document,
as
only
one
or
two
cases
may
yet
exist;
Emerging
from
marginalized
fringe;
By
definiVon
only
one
or
two
cases
exist
=
insignificant;
At
emergence,
the
data
will
vary
widely;
No
consensus
–
rejecVon
due
to
paradigm
challenges;
Emerging
changes
oken
challenge
previous
theoreVcal
structures
and
necessitate
the
construcVon
of
new
theories;
Most
interesVng
new
change
emerges
where
disciplines
converge
and
clash:
a
post-­‐disciplinary
perspecVve.

17. SIMPLE:
relaVonship
between
cause
and
effect
obvious.
Solve
by
applying
rules.
GRAD
STUDENT
COMPLICATED:
relaVonship
between
cause
and
effect
needs
analysis
/
invesVgaVon.
Solve
by
applying
expert
knowledge
in
field.
PROFESSOR
CHAOTIC:
NO
relaVonship
between
cause
and
effect.
WILD
CARDS.
DIVERGENT
THINKERS
COMPLEX:
relaVonship
between
cause
and
effect
can
only
be
seen
in
retrospect.
Solve
by
interdisciplinary
invesVgaVon,
deep
quesVoning.
EXPERT
TEAMS
Simple,
Complicated,
Complex
and
ChaoCc
Systems
The
Cynefin
Framework,
David
Snowden,
Cogni<ve
Edge

18. Quality
Criteria
/
Design
Criteria
• Quality:
What
makes
excellence
generally?
– ‘Gold
standard’
suggested
by
Bishop
+
Gyford:
a
scan
‘hit’
idenVfies
an
emerging
change
that
is
objecVvely
new
even
to
experts,
that
confirms
or
is
confirmed
by
addiVonal
scan
data,
and
that
has
been
idenVfied
in
Vme
for
social
dialogue,
impact
assessment,
and
policy
formaVon.
– Scanning
should
produce
results
that
challenge
‘business
as
usual’
assumpVons
and
paradigms;
a
scan
‘hit’
will
problemaVse
the
present.
• Design:
What’s
the
aim
for
this
specifically?
– Security
/
risk
preparaVon
+
response?
– Policy
/
programme
/
service
/
product
formulaVon?
• What
are
the
trade-­‐offs
between
quality
and
design?
– Academic
rigor
in
terms
of
foresight
may
produce
complex,
provocaVve
output
difficult
to
communicate
and
use
effecVvely.
– Too
great
a
focus
on
user
comfort,
culture,
and
expectaVons
may
undermine
the
core
purpose
of
scanning
and
thus
its
effecVveness.

19. Design
tensions
radar
diagram

20. Design
tensions:
meta-­‐themes

21. Design
tensions:
implicit
trade-­‐offs

22. • Purpose
– SCmulus:
Singapore’s
Ministry
of
Trade
and
Industry’s
Imagining
the
New
Normal
(INN)
best
demonstrates
scan
content
and
packaging
designed
to
sVmulate
new
thinking
and
create
quesVons
about
‘business
as
usual’;
the
Springwise
Idea
Database
(SWID)
is
meant
to
sVmulate
new
business
ideas
and
entrepreneurial
acVon
and
their
sister
site,
Trendwatching,
focusses
on
value
and
paradigm
shiks.
– Robustness
of
evidence:
the
current
Sigma
Scan
(SS),
combining
the
original
Delta
and
Sigma
scans,
consistently
describes
itself
as
based
on
authoritaVve
scienVfic
evidence
and
insight,
and
references
avest
to
that
design
goal.
• Audience:
– Broad
audience/mulCple
funcCons:
Singapore’s
Risk
Assessment
and
Horizon
Scanning
sokware
(RAHS)
has
been
used
by
mulVple
agencies
and
academic
research
projects;
but
Shaping
Tomorrow
(ST)
most
completely
exemplifies
a
scan
designed
for
many
users
and
uses.
– Policy-­‐makers
and
analysts:
the
OECD
Horizon
Scan
for
Denmark
(Denmark)
offers
specific
suggesVons
for
Danish
policy-­‐makers
for
each
scan
hit
included.
• Funding:
– Partner-­‐based/subscripCon:
two
good
government
examples
–
the
Australasian
Joint
Agencies
Scanning
Network
(AJASN),
which
pays
a
subscripVon
fee
to
a
private
consultancy,
Delaney
Foresight;
and
the
Environmental
Risks:
Horizon
Scanning
and
Futures
(ERHSF)
centre
at
Cranfield
University,
which
provides
scanning
and
foresight
services
to
various
UK
government
agencies.
– Mutually-­‐based
producCon:
the
UN
University’s
Millennium
Project
(MP)
is
a
long-­‐standing
global
network
of
foresight
research
‘nodes’
who
contribute
annually
to
the
creaVon
of
the
State
of
the
Future
report.
Design
tensions:
project
exemplars

23. Imagining
the
New
Normal,
Singapore’s
MTI
–
idea
sVmulus
hvp://www.scribd.com/doc/65384905/Imagining-­‐the-­‐New-­‐Normal

24. Trendwatching
Brief
sVmulaVng
presentaVon
hvp://www.trendwatching.com/briefing/

25. Sigma
Scan
source
density
hvp://www.sigmascan.org/Live/Issue/ViewIssue/100/1/mathemaVcal-­‐world-­‐living-­‐
inside-­‐a-­‐world-­‐of-­‐conVnuous-­‐compuVng/

26. • Scanning
model:
– Social
Media:
The
iKnow
Wild
Card
and
Weak
Signals
(iKnow)
database
started
with
a
call
to
the
internaVonal
community
of
futures
researchers
to
engage
and
add
wildcards
and
weak
signals
–
and
thus
is
perhaps
less
crowdsourced
than
‘peer-­‐sourced’;
the
Springwise
Idea
Database
(SWID)
most
completely
exemplifies
a
crowd-­‐sourced
approach
–
it
is
almost
gamelike
in
providing
rewards
of
‘cool
giks’
for
accepted
contribuVons.
– Expert:
The
Environmental
Research
Funders’
Forum
(ERFF)
Horizon
Scanning
Study
produced
its
overview
of
11
priority
uncertainVes
(not
actually
a
trend/weak
signal
report)
enVrely
from
expert
consultaVons.
• CrediCng:
– Anonymous
contribuCons:
almost
none
–
even
‘crowd-­‐sourced’
models
track
contributors,
although
names
may
not
be
publicly
displayed
(eg,
Springwise
lets
contributors
choose
to
be
anonymous
or
avributed).
– Credited
contribuCons:
prac<cally
all
–
the
original
Delta
Scan
(Delta)
used
specifically
credited
scienVfic
experts
in
a
wiki;
the
Springwise
Idea
Database
(SWID)
credits
tangibly,
offering
money/rewards
to
a
global
team
of
crowd-­‐source
contributors.
• ProducCon
of
content:
– Rolling
update:
Both
the
Australia
and
New
Zealand
Horizon
Scanning
Network
(ANZHSN)
and
DSTL
Horizone
(DSTL)
regularly
output
updated
scan
reports:
ANZHSN
annually,
and
DSTL
bi-­‐
monthly.
– DefiniCve
review:
The
UK
HSC’S
Technology
and
InnovaVon
Futures
(TIF)
report
illustrates
a
comprehensive,
one-­‐Vme
review
of
emerging
changes
perVnent
to
a
specific
topic
or
sector.
Design
tensions:
project
exemplars

27. Springwise
Idea
Database
crowd-­‐sourcing
hvp://www.springspovers.com/springspovers/

28. Australia
New
Zealand
Horizon
Scanning
Network
annual
bulleVn
hvp://www.horizonscanning.gov.au/internet/horizon/publishing.nsf/Content/anzhs-­‐
newslever-­‐1

29. • Use
of
content
(note:
difficult
to
esCmate
user
recidivism):
– ConCnuous:
The
Environment
Agency
(EA)
designed
its
database
and
newslever
for
conVnuous
checking
of
how
changes
were
emerging,
in
order
to
assess
unfolding
environmental
impacts;
in
the
private
sector,
Shaping
Tomorrow
(ST)
is
designed
specifically
for
conVnuous
check-­‐in
and
downloading
of
refreshed
trend
and
weak
signal
data.
– One-­‐off:
Both
the
Foresight
Process
–
New
Future
Fields
(FP)
report
and
the
NIC’s
Global
Trends
2025
(GT2025)
exemplify
detailed,
in-­‐
depth
reports
designed
to
be
read
and
referenced
for
specific
purposes,
but
not
for
conVnued
re-­‐use;
as
they
are
not
updated,
the
specific
scan
data
would
become
stale.
• Reasons
for
lack
of
use:
– Policy-­‐makers
not
futures-­‐aware:
pracVcally
all
– Scan
not
user-­‐friendly:
pracVcally
all
–
but
RAHS
(Gov)
illustrates
a
less
than
friendly
user
interface
on
complex
sokware;
ST
(Priv)
has
a
clean
design
and
offers
addiVonal
informaVon
on
every
tool
–
but
it
has
a
LOT
of
tools:
like
a
Swiss
Army
knife,
you
are
ready
for
anything,
but
there’s
always
one
tool
you
can’t
quite
idenVfy
immediately.
Design
tensions:
project
exemplars

30. Singapore’s
RAHS
sokware
plaxorm
(
hvp://app.rahs.gov.sg/public/www/content.aspx?sid=2955
)

31. Shaping
Tomorrow’s
Scanning
/
Foresight
Plaxorm
(
hvp://www.shapingtomorrow.com/
)

32. Shaping
Tomorrow’s
Scanning
/
Foresight
Plaxorm
(
hvp://www.shapingtomorrow.com/
)

33. Basics
• Sell-­‐by
date:
robust
evidence
loses
freshness
fast
–
rolling
updates
are
criVcal:
scanning
must
be
an
on-­‐going
process.
• Ubiquity
and
diversity:
change
erupts
everywhere,
and
most
surprisingly
from
the
fringes
–
so
including
the
outliers,
marginalised
voices,
and
tail
ends
of
the
bell
curves
is
a
must,
even
when
if
embarrassing.
Learn
to
manage
the
risk
of
the
ridiculous,
because
you
need
the
ridiculous.
• Downside
of
density:
constantly
refreshed
scan
data
from
broadly
diverse
perspecVves,
coupled
with
conceptually
robust
analyVc
tools,
is
an
ideal
–
but
too
much
data
is
indigesVble
without
analyVc
tools
which
oken
render
the
scan
usable
only
to
experts.
• CuraVon
is
criVcal:
people
create
sense,
and
triage
and
sense-­‐making,
performed
conVnuously,
can
help
manage
data
density
via
triage
and
pavern
formaVon
–
provided
the
theoreVcal
and
conceptual
tools
are
explicitly
designed
into
the
scanning
and
futures
process.

34. Basics,
conVnued
• Training,
training,
training:
this
is
the
only
path
to
consistent,
high-­‐quality
scan
input
–
and
output.
Aker
all,
what
does
the
‘expert’
in
‘expert
model’
mean
–
topic
expert,
or
futures
expert?
The
greater
the
topical
experVse,
the
less
likely
that
someone
is
a
useful
futures
thinker
–
disciplinary
blinkers
get
in
the
way.
Scanning
requires
mixed
discipline
team
coordinated
and
trained
by
a
futures
researcher.
• Where’s
it
going?
Scanning
only
makes
sense
in
the
context
of
an
integrated
futures
process
–
scan
data
exist
to
generate
impact
cascades,
cross-­‐impact
matrices,
transformaVons
to
systems
maps,
scenarios,
visions,
strategies,
and
innovaVons.
If
the
scanning
system
doesn’t
have
throughput
to
all
of
these
tools
built
in,
it
will
not
succeed.

35. FORESIGHT
PLATFORMS
• BIG
and
BIG
MONEY:
Morphological
Analysis
–
scanning,
systems
analysis,
scenarios,
strategy
– PARMENIDES
EIDOS
(
hvps://www.parmenides-­‐foundaVon.org/applicaVon/parmenides-­‐
eidos/
)
– SINGAPORE
RAHS
–
Risk
Assessment
and
Horizon
Scanning
System
(hvp://www.rahs.gov.sg/public/www/home.aspx
)
• BIG
and
MODERATE
COST:
Complicated
– SHAPING
TOMORROW:
Swiss
Army
knife
–
great
array
of
tools
including
‘auto-­‐scanning’
(
www.shapingtomorrow.com
)
– SHARPCLOUD:
visual
foresight
decks
(hvp://www.sharpcloud.com/
)
• QUICK
START:
Crowdsourcing
– Factr
(hvp://www.factr.com/
)
share
datafeeds;
co-­‐create
insight
– Co-­‐tunity
(hvp://www.cotunity.com/
)
asynchronous
brainstorming
– Futurescaper
(hvp://www.futurescaper.com/
)
co-­‐create
scenarios

36. hvps://www.parmenides-­‐foundaVon.org/applicaVon/parmenides-­‐eidos/
PARMENIDES
EIDOS

37. hvp://www.sharpcloud.com/
SHARPCLOUD

38. www.factr.com
FACTR

39. www.cotunity.com
CO-­‐TUNITY

40. hvp://www.futurescaper.com/
FUTURESCAPER

41. SOCIAL
MEDIA
PLATFORMS
• Easy
capture
via
browser
buvon
widgets
• Collect,
compare,
and
converse
with
your
community
– Pinterest
(
www.pinterest.com
)
– Pearltrees
(www.pearltrees.com
)
• Get
some
random
into
your
life
– StumbleUpon
(
www.stumbleupon.com
)

42. www.pinterest.com
PINTEREST

43. www.pearltrees.com
PEARLTREES

44. www.stumbleupon.com
STUMBLEUPON

45. GAMES
parVcipatory
assumpVon
re-­‐arrangement
• Card
Decks
– mVIP
(hvp://www.mobilityvip.com/deck/index.html)
– The
Thing
from
the
Future
(
hvp://situaVonlab.org/projects/the-­‐thing-­‐from-­‐the-­‐future/)
– Postcards:
visual
brainstorming
(hvp://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/18-­‐3/E02.pdf
)
– Future
eXplorer
(hvps://www.Vmescape.io/water-­‐for-­‐life)
• Online
MM
– SuperStruct
(hvp://archive.superstructgame.net/)
– Urgent
Evoke
(hvp://www.urgentevoke.com/)
– MMOWGLI
Blackswan
(
hvps://portal.mmowgli.nps.edu/blackswan-­‐blog)
• Role
playing
– ByoLogyc
(
hvps://www.singularityweblog.com/april-­‐fools-­‐the-­‐truth-­‐about-­‐
byologyc%E2%80%8F/
and
hvp://www.themission.biz/
)

46. hvp://www.mobilityvip.com/deck/index.html
mVIP:
Mobility
Vision
IntegraVon
Project

47. hvp://situaVonlab.org/projects/the-­‐thing-­‐from-­‐the-­‐future/
and
hvp://situaVonlab.org/
The
THING
FROM
THE
FUTURE

48. hvps://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2014/04/17/postcards-­‐as-­‐a-­‐workshop-­‐tool/
and
hvp://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/18-­‐3/E02.pdf
POSTCARDS

49. hvps://www.singularityweblog.com/april-­‐fools-­‐the-­‐truth-­‐about-­‐byologyc%E2%80%8F/
BYOLOGYC

50. “The
world
as
we
have
created
it
is
a
process
of
our
thinking.
It
cannot
be
changed
without
changing
our
thinking.”
Albert
Einstein
“Nothing
is
so
painful
to
the
human
mind
as
great
and
sudden
change.”
Mary
Shelley
Thank
you.
Wendy
Schultz
@wendyinfutures