Diese Präsentation wurde erfolgreich gemeldet.
Wir verwenden Ihre LinkedIn Profilangaben und Informationen zu Ihren Aktivitäten, um Anzeigen zu personalisieren und Ihnen relevantere Inhalte anzuzeigen. Sie können Ihre Anzeigeneinstellungen jederzeit ändern.

Sarwant Singh on Electric Vehicles: Market Opportunities and New Business Models for Industry Stakeholders

6.647 Aufrufe

Veröffentlicht am

The electric vehicle market is changing the landscape of transportation, energy and other related industries. What does this mean for your business and where are the opportunities?

Part of the MaRS Market Insight Series - moderated by MaRS cleantech advisor Jon Dogterom

More, including session video: http://www.marsdd.com/events/details.html?uuid=df2648aa-c50c-4c4b-9a61-66101151c9bd

Veröffentlicht in: Automobil
  • Sharpen your mind with brain pill. learn more info.. ♣♣♣ https://tinyurl.com/brainpill101
    Sind Sie sicher, dass Sie …  Ja  Nein
    Ihre Nachricht erscheint hier

Sarwant Singh on Electric Vehicles: Market Opportunities and New Business Models for Industry Stakeholders

  1. 1. Electric Vehicles: Market Opportunities and New Business Models for Industry Stakeholders Presentation to 20th Sept 2010
  2. 2. Agenda 360 Degree Vision of the Global Electric New Personal Mobility Business Models Electric Vehicles Market Overview, Technology Vehicle Industry Roadmap and Infrastructure Trends Global EV Market Size and Forecasts – PVs, LCVs and 2 Wheelers Business Model Analysis of Key Industry Stakeholders Opportunities in Electric Vehicles Market, Q&A 2
  3. 3. Three Main Trends in Urbanization Will Impact Mobility Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors MEGACITY MEGA REGIONS MEGA CORRIDORS City With A Minimum Megacities combining Transport corridors Population Of 10 with suburbs to form connecting two or more Million mega regions. major cities or mega (Population over 15 regions EXAMPLE: Greater Million) London EXAMPLE: Hong Kong- EXAMPLE: “Jo- Shenzhen-Guangzhou in Toria” (Johanessburg/ China (Population 120 Pretoria and Gautang Million) region) Source: Frost & Sullivan 3
  4. 4. By 2020, We Will See Development of Mega City Corridors and Networked, Integrated and Branded Cities 1950s Urbanisation 2020s : Branded Cities Ring Road Motorway, Living Areas growing outside the ring road as seen in London Creation of the historic centre and districts 2000s Suburb-anisation Source: Frost & Sullivan Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road •! Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost-sensitive activities: city centres becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and 2015s Network City living areas for “double income, no kids” households. •! cars needed to go to the working areas/malls outside first and second belt. •! Industry offices moved out to the first belt area as also medium income families while manufacturing facilities and low-medium income families relocated in the second and third belt areas with logistics centres created on 2nd belt periphery. •! ‘Green wave’ families living outside cities in outer suburban area. Hypermarkets and malls mostly created inside the third belt low cost area (large scales deliveries). Third suburban area and cities along the highways •! cars needed to go from outer suburban areas to join the inter-modal public created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl transport and working areas in third and second belt. M5A9-18 4
  5. 5. New Mobility Business Model - Carsharing: Over 4.5 mn members expected in US and Canada by 2016 453,700 10,194 12.2% 19.6% 2009 87.8% 80.4% 2016 Potential More than $ 3.3 billion in revenues More than 4.4 million members More than 72,000 vehicles in carsharing 5
  6. 6. Case Study: Mu by Peugeot – Integrated Mobility On-demand Solutions Under One Roof Market for Carsharing: Mu by Peugeot – Overview and Business Model (Europe), 2009 Working Concept Generate income Travel from the stock of Driving vehicles sitting at Services Behaviour dealerships and Rewards Create an account to use Pay subscription charges this scheme to get charging units by Weekend Peugeot Earn mobility (reward) Hire services or products Services points that can be used for Personal based on balance in Transport select services charging units Solutions Decrease spending Vehicle by using the same Brest Accessories infrastructure and Current Points of Sale Rennes staff Brest: 2 Nantes Paris Service Hiring Nantes: 7 Lyon Units Units Rennes: 4 !! Partnering with travel agencies, !! Micro-mobility solutions such Lyon: 4 driving schools amongst others. as bicycles and scooters. Paris: 5 !! Booking services on train, !! Rental cars and vans. airplane travel and hotels. !! Vehicle accessories such as !! Discounts, prizes and member roof-boxes, cycle racks and Expected to be expanded in key EU advantages. child seats. cities in 2010-2011 Source: Frost & Sullivan 6
  7. 7. EV Market Breakdown By Region - CEVs to Account for 70% Share In Europe; NA to Witness More PHEVs/eREVs with a 20% Share EV Breakdown By Region – Sales Estimates (World), 2015 1.3 Million 1% 3% 1% 2% 2% 20% 1% 20% Unit Shipments 19% 10% 8% 14% 7,260 66% 15% 8% 23% 70% 2% 54% 3% 63% 2% 18% 10% 6% 66% 25% 68% 2009 2015 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009 Source: Frost & Sullivan M5B6-18 7
  8. 8. Over 47 OEMs are Expected to Compete in the Global EV Market With Over 75 models by 2015 Battery Recycling and Second Life Market: EV Sales Breakdown by Vehicle Segments (APAC, Western Europe and North America), 2015 Market Size in Major Regions 1.16 Mn (APAC, Western Europe and North America) Total Number of EV OEMS 47 Total Number of EV Models ~79 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan (93%) (7%) TRADITIONAL OEMS – (Sales Unit) NON – TRADITIONAL – (Sales Unit) 5,000 6,858 230,701 17,380 115,121 20,875 iMEV BMW Mini Nissan Leaf GM Volt Toyota IQ THINK City ZENN Pininfarina Blue Heuiiez WILL 688,255 75,810 Subaru - R1e/G4e VW UP Volvo C30 Tata Indica Smart ZAP BYD F6DM CODA OPTIMAL ENERGY Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009 Source: Frost & Sullivan CEV eREV PHEV NEV/QC HPEV Unclassified M5B6-18 8
  9. 9. Chinese OEMs to launch 35 EV Models in Next 3 to 5 Years Electric Vehicle Market: Actual and Expected Electric Vehicle Models (China), 2009-2015 2009 2010 2011 2012 A00 13 Beni EV QQ3 EV M1 EV i-car M1e Yueyue EV 320EV F0 EV Mpe A00 EV Oula EK-1 EK-2 Chana Chery Chery Dongfeng FAW JAC Lifan BYD FAW SAIC Great Wall Geely Geely A0 2 Yuexiang EV Zhonghua EV Chana Brilliance A 7 F3DM 620EV Haima EV Zhixiang plug-in 550 plug-in Saibao EV Heyue plug-in BYD Lifan FAW Chana SAIC Hafei JAC B 2 F6DM BE 701 BYD BAW MPV 3 E6 premacy EV Shuaike EV BYD FAW Dongfeng SUV 5 Odin EV Ruiqi EV 2008 EV Midi EV Tiggo EV Dongfeng Dongfeng Zhongtai BAW Chery 1 10 9 12 Sum Source : Frost & Sullivan 9
  10. 10. Electric 2 Wheelers – eBicycle, eScooter and eMotor Bike Market Worth Over 25M Units Worldwide •! Over 20 million electric 2 wheelers sold globally in 2008 •! Modest growth expected globally with 22 million sales forecast by 2010 Regenerative braking Motor driven by torque functionality in high end sensor on pedal models Vectrix Electric Scooter Sanyo Enacle XM 3000 Electric Moped Hub motor driven purely by throttle Lead Acid / NiMH Battery •! Regenerative Braking* •! 60 Volt lead acid battery •! 125 Volt NiMH battery •! Range – 35 km / 50 km* •! Charging time – 7 hours •! Charging time – 2 hours •! Max speed – 70 kph •! Acceleration (0 – 80 kph) – 6.8s •! Range – 80 km •! Max speed – 100 kph •! Range – 110 km @ 40 kph 10
  11. 11. Electric Vehicle Industry EcoSystem Provides Opportunity to Enter New Fields Utilities Integrators OEMs (e.g. Better Place) Charging System/Battery Station Government Manufacturers Manufacturers 11
  12. 12. Example of Products/Services Portfolio That Can be Offered by an Integrator in the E-Mobility Market Telematics & Charging Batteries E-Mobility Vehicles Electricity other value added Stations Services services •! Manufacturing & •! Battery Leasing •! Energy •! Subscription •! Data Aggregator Sales Model Subscription based Energy ( working with other Packages service Scheme partners) •! Installation & •! Refurbishing Maintenance •! Extended E- •! Battery mobility solution Possible Revenue •! Recycling •! Load Management management •! Charge Payment e.g. vehicle sharing services Program / Subscription based •! Battery 2nd life Streams services •! investment in •! Advanced booking •! Offering After- renewable energy of charging stations •! Battery Sales services – •! Revenues from such as wind farms Swapping and gain carbon value added services credits •! V2V and V2G •! Extend to other •! Market green Communication E-mobility solutions such as •! Premium revenues •! Premium revenues solutions Solar panels to E- via Peak Power Vs via Renewable Mobility client base Off Peak Charging •! Added value Energy Vs Non Renewable Energy service (POIs, •! Premium revenues Diagnostics, etc) •! Premium revenues •! Battery via Renewable Integration •! Recycling and via Peak Power Vs Energy Vs Non Refurbishing Off Peak Charging Renewable Energy •! Level 1 Vs Level 2 Vs Level 3 Charging Source: Frost & Sullivan 12
  13. 13. Utilities Business Model – Revenue Generating Opportunities Are Mainly Outside Selling Energy Source Of Revenue Generation Calculated over 5 years (based on certain assumptions) 1. Revenues from Selling Electricity !300Mn - !400Mn 2. Revenues from selling Charging Stations !500Mn - !700Mn 3. Revenues from Installation & Maintenance of Charging Stations !300Mn - !500Mn 4. Revenues from Other Sources (Solar panels and other retailing, Advertising, Load Balancing, Garage Referrals, Data Downloads etc) ! 450Mn - ! 650Mn TOTAL: !1.5 bn - !2 bn Capital Investment Includes: (1st yr) !New Energy Capacity Command and control centre !48Mn - !50Mn !Network Recurring Cost !Charging Station Purchase Cost Fixed & Operating Cost !Installation and Maintenance cost !640Mn - !650Mn !Logistics, Admin, Selling, general , rental, Marketing and Labour Cost 13
  14. 14. Automotive Apps: From Car Sharing to Diagnostics to EV’s, Apps for Cars are becoming a Value Added Development News – Remote Integrated 3D Car Sharing Online radio Vehicle Horn/ Telematics – Navigation Vehicle EV Billing news, RSS Light Flash – eCall/bCall/ with Video Access feeds reader Security App, Tolling Support Multimodal Social Diagnostics – Transport – Remote Car Interior Pre- Real time Networking – TPMS, apps for real Starter/ Condition Traffic e.g. Twitter, service/oil time bus/ Security App Information Facebook, notifications, transit Vehicle Car/Van IP TV – live tv Access – Real Time Charging Pooling – car using Dynamic POI converting Video Traffic Station and van internet, Finder phone in to Feeds Locator pooling apps, eg. .SPB TV, smart key Car Sharing – Internet State of Choosing, Emergency Radio Vehicle Charge Turn by Turn Reservation Assistance – e.g. Pandora, Locator Monitoring Navigation and locating App RadioTime App cars, Vehicle Access/ Electric Mobility Entertainment Telematics Navigation Security Vehicles 14
  15. 15. On Board Computers for Electric Vehicles – Developments like Nissan Leaf IT System, Better Place Autos Highlight the Importance V2G and V2I Communication Better Place AutoOS This backend server also interfaces with utilities to manage grid impact and This brain is the also informs the user onboard computing about the best time for platform recharge example An integrated IT support system The electric car has constantly an intelligent brain collects data This brain is wirelessly connected to an IT Server from various electric car users example Intuitive and sophisticated software scan various vehicle parameters and ensure optimum vehicle performance A back-end service center provides information to users and also analyzes Nissan Leaf IT System driving patterns among others 15
  16. 16. Short List of New and Evolving Technologies (in-side Vehicle) Power Interiors & Power Train Systems Chassis Acoustics Others Engine P-Electronics Steering Cockpit E-Systems Electric Motors – Stepped DC/DC, Battery SOC, PMM/ Induction/ DC/AC Active Front Temperature eHVAC Systems SR/ In-wheel, Converters, Steering Indicator (Electric Hub Motors Inverters Compressors) Charging Steer By Wire Systems E-Engine Advanced BMS Indicator- Electric Water Locators Pump 16-32-bit Braking Motor Vehicle Range Extender Gearbox "-controllers, Speed, Distance IGBTs, MOSFETs Calculator Module Integrated HBS+EVP transmission Integrated with differential Charging unit/ equipment NVH Battery Modules Brake by Wire/ In-wheel motors EMB Harness High Frequency Telematics w/o transmission Isolators Others 12V/ 300-440V LED Lighting Sound Batteries Generators Electric Axle and Lithium Ion + E-AWD Cooling systems CAN/TT-CAN/ Lead Acid for SLI Flex Ray (Optional) Legend: Electric Corner Module Emerging (new) Evolving Technologies Technologies 16
  17. 17. Examples of Electrical Products Worth Considering MSD Plug Assembly MSD Base Assembly Travel Cord Set (CCID) Bulk head Battery Disconnect Units Charge Station Receptacle Other Products POWER CHARGING SYSTEMS POWER DISTRIBUTION ELECTRONICS • Wall-Mount Cord Set • Manual Disconnect • H.V. Battery • On-Board Chargers • Connection Systems Specialist Plug and Inlets Monitoring System • Off-Board Chargers • Battery Disconnect unit • Traction Inverter` Source: Pictures Lear 17
  18. 18. Contacts Sarwant Singh Practice Director Automotive & Transportation P : +44 207 915 7843 Email : sarwant.singh@frost.com M35F-18 18