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Oh Boy! 
These A/B tests appear to 
be bullshit!
@OptimiseOrDie 
• UX, Analytics, Testing and Innovation 
• Started doing testing & CRO 2004 
• Split tested over 40M visitors in 19 languages 
• 60+ mistakes with AB testing 
• I’ve made every one of them 
• Like riding a bike… 
• Get in touch for workshops, skill transfer, CRO 
methodology design, training and programme 
mentoring…
@OptimiseOrDie 
Hands on!
AB Test Hype Cycle 
Zen Plumbing 
@OptimiseOrDie 
Timeline 
Tested stupid ideas, lots 
Most AB or MVT tests are bullshit 
Discovered AB testing 
Triage, Triangulation, 
Prioritisation, Maths
@OptimiseOrDie
@OptimiseOrDie
Oppan Gangnam Style! 
@OptimiseOrDie
#1 : You’re doing it in the wrong place 
@OptimiseOrDie
#1 : You’re doing it in the wrong place 
There 
are 
4 
areas 
a 
CRO 
expert 
always 
looks 
at: 
1. Inbound 
a+ri.on 
(medium, 
source, 
landing 
page, 
keyword, 
intent 
and 
many 
more…) 
2. Key 
conversion 
points 
(product, 
basket, 
registraBon) 
3. Processes, 
lifecycles 
and 
steps 
(forms, 
logins, 
registraBon, 
checkout, 
onboarding, 
emails, 
push) 
4. Layers 
of 
engagement 
(search, 
category, 
product, 
add) 
5. Use 
visitor 
flow 
reports 
for 
aIriBon 
– 
very 
useful. 
6. For 
key 
conversion 
points, 
look 
at 
loss 
rates 
& 
interacBons 
7. Processes 
and 
steps 
– 
look 
at 
funnels 
or 
make 
your 
own 
8. Layers 
and 
engagement 
– 
make 
a 
ring 
model 
@OptimiseOrDie
Examples 
– 
Concept 
Bounce 
Engage 
Outcome 
@OptimiseOrDie
Examples 
– 
16-­‐25Railcard.co.uk 
Bounce 
Login to 
Account 
Content 
Engage 
Start 
Application 
Type and 
Details 
Eligibility 
Photo 
Complete 
@OptimiseOrDie
Examples 
– 
Guide 
Dogs 
Bounce 
Content 
Engage 
Donation 
Pathway 
Donation 
Page 
Starts 
process 
Funnel 
steps 
Complete 
@OptimiseOrDie
Within 
a 
layer 
Page 
1 
Page 
2 
Page 
3 
Page 
4 
Page 
5 
Exit 
Deeper 
Layer 
Email 
Contact 
Like 
Wishlist 
Micro 
Conversions 
@OptimiseOrDie
#1 : Make a Money Model 
• Get 
to 
know 
the 
flow 
and 
loss 
(leaks) 
inbound, 
inside 
and 
through 
key 
processes 
or 
conversion 
points. 
• Once 
you 
know 
the 
key 
steps 
you’re 
losing 
people 
at 
and 
how 
much 
traffic 
you 
have 
– 
make 
a 
money 
model. 
• 20,000 
see 
the 
basket 
page 
– 
what’s 
the 
basket 
page 
to 
checkout 
page 
raBo? 
• EsBmate 
how 
much 
you 
think 
you 
can 
shi 
the 
key 
metric 
(e.g. 
basket 
adds, 
basket 
-­‐> 
checkout) 
• What 
downstream 
revenue 
or 
profit 
would 
that 
generate? 
• Sort 
by 
the 
money 
column 
• CongratulaBons 
– 
you’ve 
now 
built 
the 
worlds 
first 
IT 
plan 
for 
growth 
with 
a 
return 
on 
investment 
esBmate 
aIached! 
• I’ll 
talk 
more 
about 
prioriBsing 
later 
– 
but 
a 
good 
real 
world 
analogy 
for 
you 
to 
use: 
@OptimiseOrDie
Think like a 
store owner! 
If you can’t refurbish 
the entire store, 
which floors or 
departments will you 
invest in optimising? 
Wherever there is: 
• Footfall 
• Low return 
• Opportunity 
@OptimiseOrDie
#2 : Your hypothesis is crap! 
Insight 
-­‐ 
Inputs 
#FAIL 
CompeBtor 
copying 
Dice 
rolling 
Guessing 
Panic 
CompeBtor 
change 
An 
arBcle 
the 
CEO 
read 
Ego 
Opinion 
Cherished 
noBons 
MarkeBng 
whims 
Cosmic 
rays 
Not 
‘on 
brand’ 
enough 
IT 
inflexibility 
Internal 
company 
needs 
Some 
dumbass 
consultant 
Shiny 
feature 
Knee 
jerk 
blindness 
reactons 
@OptimiseOrDie
#2 : These are the inputs you need… 
Insight 
-­‐ 
Inputs 
Insight 
Eye 
tracking 
SegmentaBon 
Surveys 
Sales 
and 
Call 
Centre 
Customer 
contact 
Social 
analyBcs 
Session 
Replay 
Usability 
tesBng 
Forms 
analyBcs 
Search 
analyBcs 
Voice 
of 
Customer 
Market 
research 
A/B 
and 
MVT 
tesBng 
Big 
& 
unstructured 
data 
Web 
analyBcs 
CompeBtor 
Customer 
evals 
services 
@OptimiseOrDie
Insight 
-­‐ 
Inputs 
@OptimiseOrDie 
#2 : Brainstorming the test 
• Check your inputs 
• Assemble the widest possible team 
• Share your data and research 
• Design Emotive Writing guidelines
Insight 
-­‐ 
Inputs 
@OptimiseOrDie 
#2 : Emotive Writing - example 
Customers do not know what to do and need support and advice 
• Emphasize the fact that you understand that their situation is stressful 
• Emphasize your expertise and leadership in vehicle glazing and will help them get the best 
solution for their situation 
• Explain what they will need to do online and during the call-back so that they know what the 
next steps will be 
• Explain that they will be able ask any other questions they might have during the call-back 
Customers do not feel confident in assessing the damage 
• Emphasize the fact that you will help them assess the damage correctly online 
Customers need to understand the benefits of booking online 
• Emphasize that the online booking system is quick, easy and provides all the information 
they need in regards with their appointment and general cost information 
Customers mistrust insurers and find dealing with their insurance situation very frustrating 
• Where possible communicate the fact that the job is most likely to be free for insured 
customers, or good value for money for cash customers 
• Show that you understand the hassle of dealing with insurance companies – emphasise that 
you will help with their insurance paperwork for them, freeing them of this burden 
Some customers cannot be bothered to take action to fix their car glass 
• Emphasize the consequences of not doing anything, 
e.g. ‘It’s going to cost you more if the chip develops into a crack’
#2 Insight 
: THE DARK -­‐ 
Inputs 
SIDE 
“Keep your family safe and get back on the 
road fast with Autoglass.” 
@OptimiseOrDie
#2 Insight 
: NOW YOU -­‐ 
Inputs 
CAN BEGIN 
• You should have inputs, research, data, guidelines 
• Sit down with the team and prompt with 12 questions: 
– Who is this page (or process) for? 
– What problem does this solve for the user? 
– How do we know they need it? 
– What is the primary action we want people to take? 
– What might prompt the user to take this action? 
– How will we know if this is doing what we want it to do? 
– How do people get to this page? 
– How long are people here on this page? 
– What can we remove from this page? 
– How can we test this solution with people? 
– How are we solving the users needs in different and better ways than 
@OptimiseOrDie 
other places on our site? 
– If this is a homepage, ask these too (bit.ly/1fX2RAa)
Insight 
-­‐ 
Inputs 
@OptimiseOrDie 
#2 : PROMPT YOURSELF 
• Check your UX or Copywriting 
guidelines. 
• Use Get Mental Notes 
• What levers can we apply now? 
• Create a hypothesis: 
“WE 
BELIEVE 
THAT 
DOING 
[A] 
FOR 
PEOPLE 
[B] 
WILL 
MAKE 
OUTCOME 
[C] 
HAPPEN. 
WE'LL 
KNOW 
THIS 
WHEN 
WE 
SEE 
DATA 
[D] 
AND 
FEEDBACK 
[E]” 
www.GetMentalNotes.com
Insight 
-­‐ 
Inputs 
@OptimiseOrDie 
#2 : THE FUN BIT! 
• Collaborative Sketching 
• Brainwriting 
• Refine and Test!
We 
believe 
that 
doing 
[A] 
for 
People 
[B] 
will 
make 
outcome 
[C] 
happen. 
We’ll 
know 
this 
when 
we 
observe 
data 
[D] 
and 
obtain 
feedback 
[E]. 
(reverse) 
@OptimiseOrDie
#2 : Solutions 
• You need multiple tool inputs 
– Tool decks are here : www.slideshare.net/sullivac 
• Collaborative, Customer connected team 
– If you’re not doing this, you’re hosed 
• Session replay tools provide vital input 
– Get vital additional customer evidence 
• Simple page Analytics don’t cut it 
– Invest in your analytics, especially event tracking 
• Ego, Opinion, Cherished notions – fill gaps 
– Fill these vacuums with insights and data 
• Champion the user 
– Give them a chair at every meeting 
@OptimiseOrDie
#2 Insight 
: HYPOTHESIS -­‐ 
Inputs 
DESIGN SUMMARY 
• Inputs – get the right stuff 
• Research, Guidelines, Data 
• Framing the problem(s) 
• Questions to get you going 
• Use card prompts for Psychology 
• Create a hypothesis 
• Collaborative Sketching 
• Brainwriting 
• Refine and Check Hypothesis 
• Instrument and Test 
@OptimiseOrDie
#3 : No analytics integration 
• Investigating problems with tests 
• Segmentation of results 
• Tests that fail, flip or move around 
• Tests that don’t make sense 
• Broken test setups 
• What drives the averages you see? 
@OptimiseOrDie
29 
A B B A
These 
We’re still 
waiting for our 
AB tests to 
Danish porn 
sites are so 
hardcore! 
finish! 
#4 : The test will finish after you die 
• Use a test length calculator like this one: 
• visualwebsiteoptimizer.com/ab-split-test-duration/
@OptimiseOrDie 
#5 : You get false results
The 95% Stopping Problem 
• Many people use 95, 99% ‘confidence’ to stop 
• This value is unreliable 
• Read this Nature article : bit.ly/1dwk0if 
• You can hit 95% early in a test 
• If you stop, it could be a false positive 
• Tools need to be smarter about inference 
• This 95% thingy – it’s last on your list for reasons 
to stop testing 
• Let me explain 
@OptimiseOrDie
#5 : When 
to 
stop 
• Self 
stopping 
is 
a 
huge 
problem: 
– “I 
stopped 
the 
test 
when 
it 
looked 
good” 
– “It 
hit 
20% 
on 
Thursday, 
so 
I 
figured 
– 
Bme 
to 
cut 
and 
run” 
– “We 
need 
test 
Bme 
for 
something 
else. 
Looks 
good 
to 
us” 
– “We’ve 
got 
a 
big 
sample 
now 
so 
why 
not 
finish 
it 
today?” 
• False 
Posi.ves 
and 
Nega.ves 
– If 
you 
cut 
part 
of 
a 
business 
cycle, 
you 
bias 
the 
segments 
you 
have 
in 
the 
test. 
– So 
if 
you 
ignore 
weekend 
shoppers 
by 
stopping 
your 
test 
on 
Friday, 
that 
will 
affect 
results 
– The 
other 
problems 
is 
FALSE 
POSITIVES 
and 
FALSE 
NEGATIVES 
@OptimiseOrDie
#5 : When 
to 
stop 
Scenario 
1 
Scenario 
2 
Scenario 
3 
Scenario 
4 
@OptimiseOrDie 
A"er 
200 
observa-ons 
Insignificant 
Insignificant 
Significant! 
Significant! 
A"er 
500 
observa-ons 
Insignificant 
Significant! 
Insignificant 
Significant! 
End 
of 
experiment 
Insignificant 
Significant! 
Insignificant 
Significant! 
Scenario 
1 
Scenario 
2 
Scenario 
3 
Scenario 
4 
A"er 
200 
observa-ons 
Insignificant 
Insignificant 
Significant! 
Significant! 
A"er 
500 
observa-ons 
Insignificant 
Significant! 
trial 
stopped 
trial 
stopped 
End 
of 
experiment 
Insignificant 
Significant! 
Significant! 
Significant!
@OptimiseOrDie 
The 95% Stopping Problem
The 95% Stopping Problem 
@OptimiseOrDie
The 95% Stopping Problem 
@OptimiseOrDie 
abtestguide.com/calc/
62.5cm 
+/- 1cm 
@OptimiseOrDie 
9.1% 
± 0.5 
9.3% 
± 0.5 
9.1% 
± 0.2 
9.3% 
± 0.2 
9.1% 
± 0.1 
9.3% 
± 0.1
Graph 
is 
a 
range, 
not 
a 
line: 
9.1 ± 1.9% 9.1 ± 0.9% 9.1 ± 0.3%
The 95% Stopping Problem 
“You should know that stopping a test once it’s significant is 
deadly sin number 1 in A/B testing land. 77% of A/A tests 
(testing the same thing as A and B) will reach significance at 
a certain point.” 
Ton Wesseling, Online Dialogue 
“I always tell people that you need a representative sample if 
your data needs to be valid. What does ‘representative’ 
mean? 
First of all you need to include all the weekdays and 
weekends. You need different weather, because it impacts 
buyer behaviour. But most important: Your traffic needs to 
have all traffic sources, especially newsletter, special 
campaigns, TV,… everything! The longer the test runs, the 
more insights you get. 
Andre Morys, Web Arts
Three Articles you MUST read 
“Statistical Significance does not equal Validity” 
http://bit.ly/1wMfmY2 
“Why every Internet Marketer should be a 
Statistician” 
http://bit.ly/1wMfs1G 
“Understanding the Cycles in your site” 
http://mklnd.com/1pGSOUP
Business & Purchase Cycles 
• Customers change 
• Your traffic mix changes 
• Markets, competitors 
• Be aware of all the waves 
• Always test whole cycles 
• Minimum 2 cycles (wk/mo) 
• Don’t exclude slower buyers 
@OptimiseOrDie 
Start Test Finish Avg Cycle
When to stop? 
• MINIMUM two business cycles (week/mo.) 
• MINIMUM of 1 purchase cycle 
• MINIMUM 250 outcomes/conversions per creative 
• MORE if relative difference is low 
• ALWAYS test full weeks 
• KNOW what marketing and cycles are doing 
• RUN a test length calculator - bit.ly/XqCxuu 
• SET your test run time 
• Run it 
• Stop it 
• Analyse the data 
• When do I run over? Not enough data… 
@OptimiseOrDie
44 
#6 : You peek too early!
#6 : The early stages of a test… 
• Ignore 
the 
graphs. 
Don’t 
draw 
conclusions. 
Don’t 
dance. 
Calm 
down. 
• Get 
a 
feel 
for 
the 
test 
but 
don’t 
do 
anything 
yet! 
• Remember 
– 
in 
A/B 
-­‐ 
50% 
of 
returning 
visitors 
will 
see 
a 
new 
shiny 
website! 
• UnBl 
your 
test 
has 
had 
at 
least 
2 
business 
cycles 
and 
250+ 
outcomes, 
don’t 
bother 
even 
gewng 
remotely 
excited! 
• Watching 
regularly 
is 
good 
though. 
You’re 
looking 
for 
anything 
that 
looks 
really 
odd 
– 
if 
everyone 
is 
looking 
(but 
not 
concluding) 
then 
oddiBes 
will 
get 
spoIed. 
• All 
tests 
move 
around 
or 
show 
big 
swings 
early 
in 
the 
tesBng 
cycle. 
Here 
is 
a 
very 
high 
traffic 
site 
– 
it 
sBll 
takes 
10 
days 
to 
start 
seIling. 
Lower 
traffic 
sites 
will 
stretch 
this 
period 
further. 
45
#7 : No QA testing 
for the AB test?
#7 
– 
BIG 
SECRET! 
• Over 
40% 
of 
tests 
have 
had 
QA 
issues. 
• Over 
£20M 
in 
browser 
conversion 
issues! 
Browser 
tesBng 
www.crossbrowsertesting.com 
www.browserstack.com 
www.spoon.net 
www.cloudtesting.com 
www.multibrowserviewer.com 
www.saucelabs.com 
Tablets 
& 
Mobiles 
www.deviceanywhere.com 
www.perfectomobile.com 
FREE 
Device 
lab! 
www.opendevicelab.com 
@OptimiseOrDie
#7 : What other QA testing should I do? 
• TesBng 
from 
several 
locaBons 
(office, 
home, 
elsewhere) 
• TesBng 
the 
IP 
filtering 
is 
set 
up 
• Test 
tags 
are 
firing 
correctly 
(analyBcs 
and 
the 
test 
tool) 
• Test 
as 
a 
repeat 
visitor 
and 
check 
session 
Bmeouts 
• Cross 
check 
figures 
from 
2+ 
sources 
• Monitor 
closely 
from 
launch, 
recheck, 
watch 
• WATCH 
FOR 
BIAS! 
@OptimiseOrDie
#8 : Tests are random and not prioritised 
Once you have a list of potential 
test areas, rank them by 
opportunity vs. effort. 
The common ranking metrics 
that I use include: 
• Opportunity (revenue, impact) 
• Dev resource 
• Time to market 
• Risk / Complexity 
Make yourself a quadrant 
diagram and plot them
#9 : Velocity or Scope problems 
0 6 12 18 
Months 
Conversion 
@OptimiseOrDie
#9 : Widen the optimisation scope 
@OptimiseOrDie
#9 : Solutions 
• Give Priority Boarding for opportunities 
– The best seats reserved for metric shifters 
• Release more often to close the gap 
– More testing resource helps, analytics ‘hawk eye’ 
• Kaizen – continuous improvement 
– Others call it JFDI (just f***ing do it) 
• Make changes AS WELL as tests, basically! 
– These small things add up as well as compounding effort 
• Run simultaneous tests 
– With analytics integration, decoding this becomes easy 
• Online Hair Booking – over 100 tiny tweaks 
– No functional changes at all – 37% improvement 
• Completed in-between product releases 
– The added lift for 10 days work, worth 360k 
@OptimiseOrDie
53 
#11 : Your test fails 
@OptimiseOrDie
#11: Your test fails 
• Learn 
from 
the 
failure! 
If 
you 
can’t 
learn 
from 
the 
failure, 
you’ve 
designed 
a 
crap 
test. 
• Next 
Bme 
you 
design, 
imagine 
all 
your 
stuff 
failing. 
What 
would 
you 
do? 
If 
you 
don’t 
know 
or 
you’re 
not 
sure, 
get 
it 
changed 
so 
that 
a 
negaBve 
becomes 
insigh{ul. 
• So 
: 
failure 
itself 
at 
a 
creaBve 
or 
variable 
level 
should 
tell 
you 
something. 
• On 
a 
failed 
test, 
always 
analyse 
the 
segmentaBon 
and 
analyBcs 
• One 
or 
more 
segments 
will 
be 
over 
and 
under 
• Check 
for 
varied 
performance 
• Now 
add 
the 
failure 
info 
to 
your 
Knowledge 
Base: 
• Look 
at 
it 
carefully 
– 
what 
does 
the 
failure 
tell 
you? 
Which 
element 
do 
you 
think 
drove 
the 
failure? 
• If 
you 
know 
what 
failed 
(e.g. 
making 
the 
price 
bigger) 
then 
you 
have 
very 
useful 
informaBon 
• You 
turned 
the 
handle 
the 
wrong 
way 
• Now 
brainstorm 
a 
new 
test 
@OptimiseOrDie
#12 : The test is ‘about the same’ 
• Analyse 
the 
segmentaBon 
• Check 
the 
analyBcs 
and 
instrumentaBon 
• One 
or 
more 
segments 
may 
be 
over 
and 
under 
• They 
may 
be 
cancelling 
out 
– 
the 
average 
is 
a 
lie 
• The 
segment 
level 
performance 
will 
help 
you 
(beware 
of 
small 
sample 
sizes) 
• If 
you 
genuinely 
have 
a 
test 
which 
failed 
to 
move 
any 
segments, 
it’s 
a 
crap 
test 
– 
be 
bolder 
• This 
usually 
happens 
when 
it 
isn’t 
bold 
or 
brave 
enough 
in 
shiing 
away 
from 
the 
original 
design, 
parBcularly 
on 
lower 
traffic 
sites 
• Get 
tesBng 
again! 
@OptimiseOrDie
#13 : The test keeps moving around 
• There 
are 
three 
reasons 
it 
is 
moving 
around 
– Your 
sample 
size 
(outcomes) 
is 
sBll 
too 
small 
– The 
external 
traffic 
mix, 
customers 
or 
reacBon 
has 
suddenly 
changed 
or 
– Your 
inbound 
markeBng 
driven 
traffic 
mix 
is 
completely 
volaBle 
(very 
rare) 
• Check 
the 
sample 
size 
• Check 
all 
your 
markeBng 
acBvity 
• Check 
the 
instrumentaBon 
• If 
no 
reason, 
check 
segmentaBon 
@OptimiseOrDie
#14 : The test has flipped on me 
• Something 
like 
this 
can 
happen: 
• Check your sample size. If it’s still small, then expect this until the test settles. 
• If the test does genuinely flip – and quite severely – then something has changed with 
the traffic mix, the customer base or your advertising. Maybe the PPC budget ran 
out? Seriously! 
• To analyse a flipped test, you’ll need to check your segmented data. This is why you 
have a split testing package AND an analytics system. 
• The segmented data will help you to identify the source of the shift in response to your 
test. I rarely get a flipped one and it’s always something changing on me, without 
being told. The heartless bastards.
• No 
– 
and 
this 
is 
why: 
– It’s 
a 
waste 
of 
Bme 
– It’s 
easier 
to 
test 
and 
monitor 
instead 
– You 
are 
eaBng 
into 
test 
Bme 
– Also 
applies 
to 
A/A/B/B 
tesBng 
– A/B/A 
running 
at 
25%/50%/25% 
is 
the 
best 
• Read 
my 
post 
here 
: 
hIp://bit.ly/WcI9EZ 
58 
#15 : Should I run an A/A test first
#16 : Nobody feels the test 
• You 
promised 
a 
25% 
rise 
in 
checkouts 
-­‐ 
you 
only 
see 
2% 
• Traffic, 
AdverBsing, 
MarkeBng 
may 
have 
changed 
• Check 
they’re 
using 
the 
same 
precise 
metrics 
• Run 
a 
calibraBon 
exercise 
• I 
oen 
leave 
a 
5 
or 
10% 
stub 
running 
in 
a 
test 
• This 
tracks 
old 
creaBve 
once 
new 
one 
goes 
live 
• If 
conversion 
is 
also 
down 
for 
that 
one, 
BINGO! 
• Remember 
– 
the 
AB 
test 
is 
an 
esBmate 
– 
it 
doesn’t 
precisely 
record 
future 
performance 
• This 
is 
why 
infrequent 
tesBng 
is 
bad 
• Always 
be 
trying 
a 
new 
test 
instead 
of 
basking 
in 
the 
glory 
of 
one 
you 
ran 
6 
months 
ago. 
You’re 
only 
as 
good 
as 
your 
next 
test. 
@OptimiseOrDie
#17 : You forgot about Mobile & Tablet 
• If 
you’re 
AB 
tesBng 
a 
responsive 
site, 
pay 
aIenBon 
• Content 
will 
break 
differently 
on 
many 
screens 
• Know 
thy 
users 
and 
their 
devices 
• Use 
bango 
or 
google 
analyBcs 
to 
define 
a 
test 
list 
• Make 
sure 
you 
test 
mobile 
devices 
& 
viewports 
• What 
looks 
good 
on 
your 
desk 
may 
not 
be 
for 
the 
user 
• Harder 
to 
design 
cross 
device 
tests 
• You’ll 
need 
to 
segment 
mobile, 
tablet 
& 
desktop 
response 
in 
the 
analyBcs 
or 
AB 
tesBng 
package 
• Your 
personal 
phone 
is 
not 
a 
device 
mix 
• Ask 
me 
about 
making 
your 
device 
list 
• Buy 
core 
devices, 
rent 
the 
rest 
from 
deviceanywhere.com 
@OptimiseOrDie
#18 : Oh shit – no traffic 
• If 
small 
volumes, 
contact 
customers 
– 
reach 
out. 
• If 
data 
volumes 
aren’t 
there, 
there 
are 
sBll 
customers! 
• Drive 
design 
from 
levers 
you 
can 
apply 
– 
game 
the 
system 
• Pick 
clean 
and 
simple 
clusters 
of 
change 
(hypothesis 
driven) 
• Use 
a 
goal 
at 
an 
earlier 
ring 
stage 
or 
funnel 
step 
• Beware 
of 
using 
clickthroughs 
when 
aIriBon 
is 
high 
on 
the 
other 
side 
• Try 
before 
and 
aer 
tesBng 
on 
idenBcal 
Bme 
periods 
(measure 
in 
analyBcs 
model) 
• Be 
careful 
about 
small 
sample 
sizes 
(<100 
outcomes) 
• Are 
you 
working 
automated 
emails? 
• Fix 
JFDI, 
performance 
and 
UX 
issues 
too!
#18 : Oh shit – no traffic 
• Forget 
MVT 
or 
A/B/N 
tests 
– 
run 
your 
numbers 
• Test 
things 
with 
high 
impact 
– 
don’t 
be 
a 
wuss! 
• Use 
UX, 
Session 
Replay 
to 
aid 
insight 
• Run 
a 
task 
gap 
survey 
(4Q 
style) 
• Run 
a 
dropped 
basket 
survey 
(LF 
style) 
• Run 
a 
general 
survey 
+ 
check 
social 
+ 
other 
sites 
• Run 
sitewide 
tests 
that 
appear 
on 
all 
pages 
or 
large 
clusters 
of 
pages 
– 
• UVPs 
(“We 
are 
a 
cool 
brand”), 
USPs 
(“Free 
returns!”), 
UCPs 
(“10% 
off 
today”). 
• Headers, 
Footers, 
Nudge 
Bars, 
USP 
bars, 
footer 
changes, 
NavigaBon, 
Product 
pages, 
Delivery 
info 
etc.
#19 : I chose the wrong test type 
• A/B 
tes.ng 
– 
good 
for: 
– A 
single 
change 
of 
content 
or 
design 
layout 
– A 
group 
of 
related 
changes 
(e.g. 
payment 
security) 
– Finding 
a 
new 
and 
radical 
shi 
for 
a 
template 
design 
– Lower 
traffic 
pages 
or 
shorter 
test 
Bmes 
• Mul.variate 
tes.ng 
– 
good 
for: 
– Higher 
traffic 
pages 
– Groups 
of 
unrelated 
changes 
(e.g. 
delivery 
& 
security) 
– MulBple 
content 
or 
design 
style 
changes 
– Finding 
specific 
drivers 
of 
test 
lis 
– TesBng 
mulBple 
versions 
(e.g. 
click 
here, 
book 
now, 
go) 
– Where 
you 
need 
to 
understand 
strong 
and 
weak 
cross 
variable 
interacBons 
– Don’t 
use 
to 
seIle 
arguments 
or 
sloppy 
thinking!
Netherlands 
A/B 
Shi 
Example 
Previous 
winner 
+7.25% 
+8.19% 
addiBonal 
li
#20 
– 
Other 
flavours 
of 
tes.ng 
• Micro 
tes.ng 
(.ny 
change) 
– 
good 
for: 
– Proving 
to 
the 
boss 
that 
tesBng 
works 
– DemonstraBng 
to 
IT 
that 
it 
works 
without 
impact 
– Showing 
the 
impact 
of 
a 
seemingly 
Bny 
change 
– Proof 
of 
concept 
before 
larger 
test 
• Funnel 
tes.ng 
– 
good 
for: 
– Checkouts 
– Lead 
gen 
– Forms 
processes 
– QuotaBons 
– Any 
mulB-­‐step 
process 
with 
data 
entry 
• Fake 
it 
and 
Build 
it 
– 
good 
for: 
– TesBng 
new 
business 
ideas 
– Trying 
out 
promoBons 
on 
a 
test 
sample 
– EsBmaBng 
impact 
before 
you 
build 
– Helps 
you 
calculate 
ROI 
– You 
can 
even 
split 
test 
enBre 
server 
farms 
Vs.
#20 
– 
Other 
flavours 
of 
tes.ng 
“Congratulations! 
Today you’re the 
lucky winner of our 
random awards 
programme. You 
get all these extra 
features for free, 
on us. Enjoy.”
Top 
F***ups 
for 
2014 
1. TesBng 
in 
the 
wrong 
place 
2. Your 
hypothesis 
inputs 
are 
crap 
3. No 
analyBcs 
integraBon 
4. Your 
test 
will 
finish 
aer 
you 
die 
5. You 
don’t 
test 
for 
long 
enough 
6. You 
peek 
before 
it’s 
ready 
7. No 
QA 
for 
your 
split 
test 
8. OpportuniBes 
are 
not 
prioriBsed 
9. TesBng 
cycles 
are 
too 
slow 
10. You 
don’t 
know 
when 
tests 
are 
ready 
11. Your 
test 
fails 
12. The 
test 
is 
‘about 
the 
same’ 
13. Test 
flips 
behaviour 
14. Test 
keeps 
moving 
around 
15. You 
run 
an 
A/A 
test 
and 
waste 
Bme 
16. Nobody 
‘feels’ 
the 
test 
17. You 
forgot 
you 
were 
responsive 
18. You 
forgot 
you 
had 
no 
traffic 
19. You 
ran 
the 
wrong 
test 
type 
20. You 
didn’t 
try 
all 
the 
flavours 
of 
tesBng 
@OptimiseOrDie
WE’RE ALL WINGING IT
2004 Headspace 
What I thought 
I knew in 2004 
Reality
2014 Headspace 
What I 
know I 
know 
On a 
good day
Guessaholics Anonymous
Rumsfeldian Space 
@OptimiseOrDie
Rumsfeldian Space 
@OptimiseOrDie
The 5 Legged Optimisation Barstool 
@OptimiseOrDie 
#1 Smart Talented Polymath 
People 
Flexible and Agile teams
Fittest? Agile! 
@OptimiseOrDie
#2 : Analytics Investment (tools, people, dev time) 
@OptimiseOrDie
@OptimiseOrDie 
#3 : User research and insight
@OptimiseOrDie 
#3 : THE BEST IDEAS COME FROM?
#4 : GREAT COPYWRITING 
“On the average, five times as many 
people read the headline as read the body 
copy. When you have written your headline, 
you have spent eighty cents out of your 
dollar.” 
David Ogilvy 
“In 9 years and 40M split tests with visitors, 
the majority of my testing success came 
from playing with the words.” 
@OptimiseOrDie
#4 : COPYWRITING TIP 
“Would you like to…” 
“I would like to...” 
http://www.theguardian.com/info/developer-blog/ 
2013/jan/02/interactive-button-text-grammar 
Use the WYLTIWLT test for button copy!
• Google Content Experiments 
bit.ly/Ljg7Ds 
• Optimizely 
www.optimizely.com 
• Visual Website Optimizer 
www.visualwebsiteoptimizer.com 
• Multi Armed Bandit Explanation 
bit.ly/Xa80O8 
• New Machine Learning Tools 
www.conductrics.com 
www.rekko.com 
@OptimiseOrDie 
#5 : Split Testing Tools
The 5 Legged Optimisation Barstool 
#1 Culture & Team 
#2 Toolkit & Analytics investment 
#3 UX, CX, Service Design, Insight 
#4 Persuasive Copywriting 
#5 Experimentation (testing) tools 
@OptimiseOrDie
READ STUFF
READ STUFF
READ STUFF
#5 : FIND STUFF 
@OptimiseOrDie 
@danbarker Analytics 
@fastbloke Analytics 
@timlb Analytics 
@jamesgurd Analytics 
@therustybear Analytics 
@carmenmardiros Analytics 
@davechaffey Analytics 
@priteshpatel9 Analytics 
@cutroni Analytics 
@avinash Analytics 
@Aschottmuller Analytics, CRO 
@cartmetrix Analytics, CRO 
@Kissmetrics CRO / UX 
@Unbounce CRO / UX 
@Morys CRO / Neuro 
@UXFeeds UX / Neuro 
@Psyblog Neuro 
@Gfiorelli1 SEO / Analytics 
@PeepLaja CRO 
@TheGrok CRO 
@UIE UX 
@LukeW UX / Forms 
@cjforms UX / Forms 
@axbom UX 
@iatv UX 
@Chudders Photo UX 
@JeffreyGroks Innovation 
@StephanieRieger Innovation 
@BrianSolis Innovation 
@DrEscotet Neuro 
@TheBrainLady Neuro 
@RogerDooley Neuro 
@Cugelman Neuro 
@Smashingmag Dev / UX 
@uxmag UX 
@Webtrends UX / CRO
#5 : LEARN STUFF 
@OptimiseOrDie 
Baymard.com 
Lukew.com 
Smashingmagazine.com 
ConversionXL.com 
Medium.com 
Whichtestwon.com 
Unbounce.com 
Measuringusability.com 
RogerDooley.com 
Kissmetrics.com 
Uxmatters.com 
Smartinsights.com 
Econsultancy.com 
Cutroni.com 
www.GetMentalNotes.com
#12 : The Best Companies… 
• Invest 
con.nually 
in 
analyBcs 
instrumentaBon, 
tools, 
people 
• Use 
an 
Agile, 
itera.ve, 
cross-­‐silo, 
one 
team 
project 
culture 
• Prefer 
collabora.ve 
tools 
to 
having 
lots 
of 
meeBngs 
• Priori.se 
development 
based 
on 
numbers 
and 
insight 
• PracBce 
real 
con.nuous 
product 
improvement, 
not 
SLEDD* 
• Are 
fixing 
bugs, 
cru, 
bad 
stuff 
as 
well 
as 
opBmising 
• Source 
photos 
and 
content 
that 
support 
persuasion 
and 
uBlity 
• Have 
cross 
channel, 
cross 
device 
design, 
tesBng 
and 
QA 
• Segment 
their 
data 
for 
valuable 
insights, 
every 
test 
or 
change 
• Con.nually 
reduce 
cycle 
(iteraBon) 
Bme 
in 
their 
process 
• Blend 
‘long’ 
design, 
conBnuous 
improvement 
AND 
split 
tests 
• Make 
op.misa.on 
the 
engine 
of 
change, 
* Single Large Expensive Doomed Developments 
not 
the 
slave 
of 
ego
THE FUTURE OF TESTING
Get 
your 
quesBons 
in! 
Mail : sullivac@gmail.com 
Deck : slideshare.com/sullivac 
Linkedin : linkd.in/pvrg14 
@OptimiseOrDie

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Conversion Hotel 2014: Craig Sullivan (UK) keynote

  • 1. Oh Boy! These A/B tests appear to be bullshit!
  • 2. @OptimiseOrDie • UX, Analytics, Testing and Innovation • Started doing testing & CRO 2004 • Split tested over 40M visitors in 19 languages • 60+ mistakes with AB testing • I’ve made every one of them • Like riding a bike… • Get in touch for workshops, skill transfer, CRO methodology design, training and programme mentoring…
  • 4.
  • 5. AB Test Hype Cycle Zen Plumbing @OptimiseOrDie Timeline Tested stupid ideas, lots Most AB or MVT tests are bullshit Discovered AB testing Triage, Triangulation, Prioritisation, Maths
  • 8. Oppan Gangnam Style! @OptimiseOrDie
  • 9. #1 : You’re doing it in the wrong place @OptimiseOrDie
  • 10. #1 : You’re doing it in the wrong place There are 4 areas a CRO expert always looks at: 1. Inbound a+ri.on (medium, source, landing page, keyword, intent and many more…) 2. Key conversion points (product, basket, registraBon) 3. Processes, lifecycles and steps (forms, logins, registraBon, checkout, onboarding, emails, push) 4. Layers of engagement (search, category, product, add) 5. Use visitor flow reports for aIriBon – very useful. 6. For key conversion points, look at loss rates & interacBons 7. Processes and steps – look at funnels or make your own 8. Layers and engagement – make a ring model @OptimiseOrDie
  • 11. Examples – Concept Bounce Engage Outcome @OptimiseOrDie
  • 12. Examples – 16-­‐25Railcard.co.uk Bounce Login to Account Content Engage Start Application Type and Details Eligibility Photo Complete @OptimiseOrDie
  • 13. Examples – Guide Dogs Bounce Content Engage Donation Pathway Donation Page Starts process Funnel steps Complete @OptimiseOrDie
  • 14. Within a layer Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Exit Deeper Layer Email Contact Like Wishlist Micro Conversions @OptimiseOrDie
  • 15. #1 : Make a Money Model • Get to know the flow and loss (leaks) inbound, inside and through key processes or conversion points. • Once you know the key steps you’re losing people at and how much traffic you have – make a money model. • 20,000 see the basket page – what’s the basket page to checkout page raBo? • EsBmate how much you think you can shi the key metric (e.g. basket adds, basket -­‐> checkout) • What downstream revenue or profit would that generate? • Sort by the money column • CongratulaBons – you’ve now built the worlds first IT plan for growth with a return on investment esBmate aIached! • I’ll talk more about prioriBsing later – but a good real world analogy for you to use: @OptimiseOrDie
  • 16. Think like a store owner! If you can’t refurbish the entire store, which floors or departments will you invest in optimising? Wherever there is: • Footfall • Low return • Opportunity @OptimiseOrDie
  • 17. #2 : Your hypothesis is crap! Insight -­‐ Inputs #FAIL CompeBtor copying Dice rolling Guessing Panic CompeBtor change An arBcle the CEO read Ego Opinion Cherished noBons MarkeBng whims Cosmic rays Not ‘on brand’ enough IT inflexibility Internal company needs Some dumbass consultant Shiny feature Knee jerk blindness reactons @OptimiseOrDie
  • 18. #2 : These are the inputs you need… Insight -­‐ Inputs Insight Eye tracking SegmentaBon Surveys Sales and Call Centre Customer contact Social analyBcs Session Replay Usability tesBng Forms analyBcs Search analyBcs Voice of Customer Market research A/B and MVT tesBng Big & unstructured data Web analyBcs CompeBtor Customer evals services @OptimiseOrDie
  • 19. Insight -­‐ Inputs @OptimiseOrDie #2 : Brainstorming the test • Check your inputs • Assemble the widest possible team • Share your data and research • Design Emotive Writing guidelines
  • 20. Insight -­‐ Inputs @OptimiseOrDie #2 : Emotive Writing - example Customers do not know what to do and need support and advice • Emphasize the fact that you understand that their situation is stressful • Emphasize your expertise and leadership in vehicle glazing and will help them get the best solution for their situation • Explain what they will need to do online and during the call-back so that they know what the next steps will be • Explain that they will be able ask any other questions they might have during the call-back Customers do not feel confident in assessing the damage • Emphasize the fact that you will help them assess the damage correctly online Customers need to understand the benefits of booking online • Emphasize that the online booking system is quick, easy and provides all the information they need in regards with their appointment and general cost information Customers mistrust insurers and find dealing with their insurance situation very frustrating • Where possible communicate the fact that the job is most likely to be free for insured customers, or good value for money for cash customers • Show that you understand the hassle of dealing with insurance companies – emphasise that you will help with their insurance paperwork for them, freeing them of this burden Some customers cannot be bothered to take action to fix their car glass • Emphasize the consequences of not doing anything, e.g. ‘It’s going to cost you more if the chip develops into a crack’
  • 21. #2 Insight : THE DARK -­‐ Inputs SIDE “Keep your family safe and get back on the road fast with Autoglass.” @OptimiseOrDie
  • 22. #2 Insight : NOW YOU -­‐ Inputs CAN BEGIN • You should have inputs, research, data, guidelines • Sit down with the team and prompt with 12 questions: – Who is this page (or process) for? – What problem does this solve for the user? – How do we know they need it? – What is the primary action we want people to take? – What might prompt the user to take this action? – How will we know if this is doing what we want it to do? – How do people get to this page? – How long are people here on this page? – What can we remove from this page? – How can we test this solution with people? – How are we solving the users needs in different and better ways than @OptimiseOrDie other places on our site? – If this is a homepage, ask these too (bit.ly/1fX2RAa)
  • 23. Insight -­‐ Inputs @OptimiseOrDie #2 : PROMPT YOURSELF • Check your UX or Copywriting guidelines. • Use Get Mental Notes • What levers can we apply now? • Create a hypothesis: “WE BELIEVE THAT DOING [A] FOR PEOPLE [B] WILL MAKE OUTCOME [C] HAPPEN. WE'LL KNOW THIS WHEN WE SEE DATA [D] AND FEEDBACK [E]” www.GetMentalNotes.com
  • 24. Insight -­‐ Inputs @OptimiseOrDie #2 : THE FUN BIT! • Collaborative Sketching • Brainwriting • Refine and Test!
  • 25. We believe that doing [A] for People [B] will make outcome [C] happen. We’ll know this when we observe data [D] and obtain feedback [E]. (reverse) @OptimiseOrDie
  • 26. #2 : Solutions • You need multiple tool inputs – Tool decks are here : www.slideshare.net/sullivac • Collaborative, Customer connected team – If you’re not doing this, you’re hosed • Session replay tools provide vital input – Get vital additional customer evidence • Simple page Analytics don’t cut it – Invest in your analytics, especially event tracking • Ego, Opinion, Cherished notions – fill gaps – Fill these vacuums with insights and data • Champion the user – Give them a chair at every meeting @OptimiseOrDie
  • 27. #2 Insight : HYPOTHESIS -­‐ Inputs DESIGN SUMMARY • Inputs – get the right stuff • Research, Guidelines, Data • Framing the problem(s) • Questions to get you going • Use card prompts for Psychology • Create a hypothesis • Collaborative Sketching • Brainwriting • Refine and Check Hypothesis • Instrument and Test @OptimiseOrDie
  • 28. #3 : No analytics integration • Investigating problems with tests • Segmentation of results • Tests that fail, flip or move around • Tests that don’t make sense • Broken test setups • What drives the averages you see? @OptimiseOrDie
  • 29. 29 A B B A
  • 30. These We’re still waiting for our AB tests to Danish porn sites are so hardcore! finish! #4 : The test will finish after you die • Use a test length calculator like this one: • visualwebsiteoptimizer.com/ab-split-test-duration/
  • 31. @OptimiseOrDie #5 : You get false results
  • 32. The 95% Stopping Problem • Many people use 95, 99% ‘confidence’ to stop • This value is unreliable • Read this Nature article : bit.ly/1dwk0if • You can hit 95% early in a test • If you stop, it could be a false positive • Tools need to be smarter about inference • This 95% thingy – it’s last on your list for reasons to stop testing • Let me explain @OptimiseOrDie
  • 33. #5 : When to stop • Self stopping is a huge problem: – “I stopped the test when it looked good” – “It hit 20% on Thursday, so I figured – Bme to cut and run” – “We need test Bme for something else. Looks good to us” – “We’ve got a big sample now so why not finish it today?” • False Posi.ves and Nega.ves – If you cut part of a business cycle, you bias the segments you have in the test. – So if you ignore weekend shoppers by stopping your test on Friday, that will affect results – The other problems is FALSE POSITIVES and FALSE NEGATIVES @OptimiseOrDie
  • 34. #5 : When to stop Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 @OptimiseOrDie A"er 200 observa-ons Insignificant Insignificant Significant! Significant! A"er 500 observa-ons Insignificant Significant! Insignificant Significant! End of experiment Insignificant Significant! Insignificant Significant! Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 A"er 200 observa-ons Insignificant Insignificant Significant! Significant! A"er 500 observa-ons Insignificant Significant! trial stopped trial stopped End of experiment Insignificant Significant! Significant! Significant!
  • 35. @OptimiseOrDie The 95% Stopping Problem
  • 36. The 95% Stopping Problem @OptimiseOrDie
  • 37. The 95% Stopping Problem @OptimiseOrDie abtestguide.com/calc/
  • 38. 62.5cm +/- 1cm @OptimiseOrDie 9.1% ± 0.5 9.3% ± 0.5 9.1% ± 0.2 9.3% ± 0.2 9.1% ± 0.1 9.3% ± 0.1
  • 39. Graph is a range, not a line: 9.1 ± 1.9% 9.1 ± 0.9% 9.1 ± 0.3%
  • 40. The 95% Stopping Problem “You should know that stopping a test once it’s significant is deadly sin number 1 in A/B testing land. 77% of A/A tests (testing the same thing as A and B) will reach significance at a certain point.” Ton Wesseling, Online Dialogue “I always tell people that you need a representative sample if your data needs to be valid. What does ‘representative’ mean? First of all you need to include all the weekdays and weekends. You need different weather, because it impacts buyer behaviour. But most important: Your traffic needs to have all traffic sources, especially newsletter, special campaigns, TV,… everything! The longer the test runs, the more insights you get. Andre Morys, Web Arts
  • 41. Three Articles you MUST read “Statistical Significance does not equal Validity” http://bit.ly/1wMfmY2 “Why every Internet Marketer should be a Statistician” http://bit.ly/1wMfs1G “Understanding the Cycles in your site” http://mklnd.com/1pGSOUP
  • 42. Business & Purchase Cycles • Customers change • Your traffic mix changes • Markets, competitors • Be aware of all the waves • Always test whole cycles • Minimum 2 cycles (wk/mo) • Don’t exclude slower buyers @OptimiseOrDie Start Test Finish Avg Cycle
  • 43. When to stop? • MINIMUM two business cycles (week/mo.) • MINIMUM of 1 purchase cycle • MINIMUM 250 outcomes/conversions per creative • MORE if relative difference is low • ALWAYS test full weeks • KNOW what marketing and cycles are doing • RUN a test length calculator - bit.ly/XqCxuu • SET your test run time • Run it • Stop it • Analyse the data • When do I run over? Not enough data… @OptimiseOrDie
  • 44. 44 #6 : You peek too early!
  • 45. #6 : The early stages of a test… • Ignore the graphs. Don’t draw conclusions. Don’t dance. Calm down. • Get a feel for the test but don’t do anything yet! • Remember – in A/B -­‐ 50% of returning visitors will see a new shiny website! • UnBl your test has had at least 2 business cycles and 250+ outcomes, don’t bother even gewng remotely excited! • Watching regularly is good though. You’re looking for anything that looks really odd – if everyone is looking (but not concluding) then oddiBes will get spoIed. • All tests move around or show big swings early in the tesBng cycle. Here is a very high traffic site – it sBll takes 10 days to start seIling. Lower traffic sites will stretch this period further. 45
  • 46. #7 : No QA testing for the AB test?
  • 47. #7 – BIG SECRET! • Over 40% of tests have had QA issues. • Over £20M in browser conversion issues! Browser tesBng www.crossbrowsertesting.com www.browserstack.com www.spoon.net www.cloudtesting.com www.multibrowserviewer.com www.saucelabs.com Tablets & Mobiles www.deviceanywhere.com www.perfectomobile.com FREE Device lab! www.opendevicelab.com @OptimiseOrDie
  • 48. #7 : What other QA testing should I do? • TesBng from several locaBons (office, home, elsewhere) • TesBng the IP filtering is set up • Test tags are firing correctly (analyBcs and the test tool) • Test as a repeat visitor and check session Bmeouts • Cross check figures from 2+ sources • Monitor closely from launch, recheck, watch • WATCH FOR BIAS! @OptimiseOrDie
  • 49. #8 : Tests are random and not prioritised Once you have a list of potential test areas, rank them by opportunity vs. effort. The common ranking metrics that I use include: • Opportunity (revenue, impact) • Dev resource • Time to market • Risk / Complexity Make yourself a quadrant diagram and plot them
  • 50. #9 : Velocity or Scope problems 0 6 12 18 Months Conversion @OptimiseOrDie
  • 51. #9 : Widen the optimisation scope @OptimiseOrDie
  • 52. #9 : Solutions • Give Priority Boarding for opportunities – The best seats reserved for metric shifters • Release more often to close the gap – More testing resource helps, analytics ‘hawk eye’ • Kaizen – continuous improvement – Others call it JFDI (just f***ing do it) • Make changes AS WELL as tests, basically! – These small things add up as well as compounding effort • Run simultaneous tests – With analytics integration, decoding this becomes easy • Online Hair Booking – over 100 tiny tweaks – No functional changes at all – 37% improvement • Completed in-between product releases – The added lift for 10 days work, worth 360k @OptimiseOrDie
  • 53. 53 #11 : Your test fails @OptimiseOrDie
  • 54. #11: Your test fails • Learn from the failure! If you can’t learn from the failure, you’ve designed a crap test. • Next Bme you design, imagine all your stuff failing. What would you do? If you don’t know or you’re not sure, get it changed so that a negaBve becomes insigh{ul. • So : failure itself at a creaBve or variable level should tell you something. • On a failed test, always analyse the segmentaBon and analyBcs • One or more segments will be over and under • Check for varied performance • Now add the failure info to your Knowledge Base: • Look at it carefully – what does the failure tell you? Which element do you think drove the failure? • If you know what failed (e.g. making the price bigger) then you have very useful informaBon • You turned the handle the wrong way • Now brainstorm a new test @OptimiseOrDie
  • 55. #12 : The test is ‘about the same’ • Analyse the segmentaBon • Check the analyBcs and instrumentaBon • One or more segments may be over and under • They may be cancelling out – the average is a lie • The segment level performance will help you (beware of small sample sizes) • If you genuinely have a test which failed to move any segments, it’s a crap test – be bolder • This usually happens when it isn’t bold or brave enough in shiing away from the original design, parBcularly on lower traffic sites • Get tesBng again! @OptimiseOrDie
  • 56. #13 : The test keeps moving around • There are three reasons it is moving around – Your sample size (outcomes) is sBll too small – The external traffic mix, customers or reacBon has suddenly changed or – Your inbound markeBng driven traffic mix is completely volaBle (very rare) • Check the sample size • Check all your markeBng acBvity • Check the instrumentaBon • If no reason, check segmentaBon @OptimiseOrDie
  • 57. #14 : The test has flipped on me • Something like this can happen: • Check your sample size. If it’s still small, then expect this until the test settles. • If the test does genuinely flip – and quite severely – then something has changed with the traffic mix, the customer base or your advertising. Maybe the PPC budget ran out? Seriously! • To analyse a flipped test, you’ll need to check your segmented data. This is why you have a split testing package AND an analytics system. • The segmented data will help you to identify the source of the shift in response to your test. I rarely get a flipped one and it’s always something changing on me, without being told. The heartless bastards.
  • 58. • No – and this is why: – It’s a waste of Bme – It’s easier to test and monitor instead – You are eaBng into test Bme – Also applies to A/A/B/B tesBng – A/B/A running at 25%/50%/25% is the best • Read my post here : hIp://bit.ly/WcI9EZ 58 #15 : Should I run an A/A test first
  • 59. #16 : Nobody feels the test • You promised a 25% rise in checkouts -­‐ you only see 2% • Traffic, AdverBsing, MarkeBng may have changed • Check they’re using the same precise metrics • Run a calibraBon exercise • I oen leave a 5 or 10% stub running in a test • This tracks old creaBve once new one goes live • If conversion is also down for that one, BINGO! • Remember – the AB test is an esBmate – it doesn’t precisely record future performance • This is why infrequent tesBng is bad • Always be trying a new test instead of basking in the glory of one you ran 6 months ago. You’re only as good as your next test. @OptimiseOrDie
  • 60. #17 : You forgot about Mobile & Tablet • If you’re AB tesBng a responsive site, pay aIenBon • Content will break differently on many screens • Know thy users and their devices • Use bango or google analyBcs to define a test list • Make sure you test mobile devices & viewports • What looks good on your desk may not be for the user • Harder to design cross device tests • You’ll need to segment mobile, tablet & desktop response in the analyBcs or AB tesBng package • Your personal phone is not a device mix • Ask me about making your device list • Buy core devices, rent the rest from deviceanywhere.com @OptimiseOrDie
  • 61. #18 : Oh shit – no traffic • If small volumes, contact customers – reach out. • If data volumes aren’t there, there are sBll customers! • Drive design from levers you can apply – game the system • Pick clean and simple clusters of change (hypothesis driven) • Use a goal at an earlier ring stage or funnel step • Beware of using clickthroughs when aIriBon is high on the other side • Try before and aer tesBng on idenBcal Bme periods (measure in analyBcs model) • Be careful about small sample sizes (<100 outcomes) • Are you working automated emails? • Fix JFDI, performance and UX issues too!
  • 62. #18 : Oh shit – no traffic • Forget MVT or A/B/N tests – run your numbers • Test things with high impact – don’t be a wuss! • Use UX, Session Replay to aid insight • Run a task gap survey (4Q style) • Run a dropped basket survey (LF style) • Run a general survey + check social + other sites • Run sitewide tests that appear on all pages or large clusters of pages – • UVPs (“We are a cool brand”), USPs (“Free returns!”), UCPs (“10% off today”). • Headers, Footers, Nudge Bars, USP bars, footer changes, NavigaBon, Product pages, Delivery info etc.
  • 63. #19 : I chose the wrong test type • A/B tes.ng – good for: – A single change of content or design layout – A group of related changes (e.g. payment security) – Finding a new and radical shi for a template design – Lower traffic pages or shorter test Bmes • Mul.variate tes.ng – good for: – Higher traffic pages – Groups of unrelated changes (e.g. delivery & security) – MulBple content or design style changes – Finding specific drivers of test lis – TesBng mulBple versions (e.g. click here, book now, go) – Where you need to understand strong and weak cross variable interacBons – Don’t use to seIle arguments or sloppy thinking!
  • 64. Netherlands A/B Shi Example Previous winner +7.25% +8.19% addiBonal li
  • 65. #20 – Other flavours of tes.ng • Micro tes.ng (.ny change) – good for: – Proving to the boss that tesBng works – DemonstraBng to IT that it works without impact – Showing the impact of a seemingly Bny change – Proof of concept before larger test • Funnel tes.ng – good for: – Checkouts – Lead gen – Forms processes – QuotaBons – Any mulB-­‐step process with data entry • Fake it and Build it – good for: – TesBng new business ideas – Trying out promoBons on a test sample – EsBmaBng impact before you build – Helps you calculate ROI – You can even split test enBre server farms Vs.
  • 66. #20 – Other flavours of tes.ng “Congratulations! Today you’re the lucky winner of our random awards programme. You get all these extra features for free, on us. Enjoy.”
  • 67. Top F***ups for 2014 1. TesBng in the wrong place 2. Your hypothesis inputs are crap 3. No analyBcs integraBon 4. Your test will finish aer you die 5. You don’t test for long enough 6. You peek before it’s ready 7. No QA for your split test 8. OpportuniBes are not prioriBsed 9. TesBng cycles are too slow 10. You don’t know when tests are ready 11. Your test fails 12. The test is ‘about the same’ 13. Test flips behaviour 14. Test keeps moving around 15. You run an A/A test and waste Bme 16. Nobody ‘feels’ the test 17. You forgot you were responsive 18. You forgot you had no traffic 19. You ran the wrong test type 20. You didn’t try all the flavours of tesBng @OptimiseOrDie
  • 69. 2004 Headspace What I thought I knew in 2004 Reality
  • 70. 2014 Headspace What I know I know On a good day
  • 74. The 5 Legged Optimisation Barstool @OptimiseOrDie #1 Smart Talented Polymath People Flexible and Agile teams
  • 76. #2 : Analytics Investment (tools, people, dev time) @OptimiseOrDie
  • 77. @OptimiseOrDie #3 : User research and insight
  • 78. @OptimiseOrDie #3 : THE BEST IDEAS COME FROM?
  • 79. #4 : GREAT COPYWRITING “On the average, five times as many people read the headline as read the body copy. When you have written your headline, you have spent eighty cents out of your dollar.” David Ogilvy “In 9 years and 40M split tests with visitors, the majority of my testing success came from playing with the words.” @OptimiseOrDie
  • 80. #4 : COPYWRITING TIP “Would you like to…” “I would like to...” http://www.theguardian.com/info/developer-blog/ 2013/jan/02/interactive-button-text-grammar Use the WYLTIWLT test for button copy!
  • 81. • Google Content Experiments bit.ly/Ljg7Ds • Optimizely www.optimizely.com • Visual Website Optimizer www.visualwebsiteoptimizer.com • Multi Armed Bandit Explanation bit.ly/Xa80O8 • New Machine Learning Tools www.conductrics.com www.rekko.com @OptimiseOrDie #5 : Split Testing Tools
  • 82. The 5 Legged Optimisation Barstool #1 Culture & Team #2 Toolkit & Analytics investment #3 UX, CX, Service Design, Insight #4 Persuasive Copywriting #5 Experimentation (testing) tools @OptimiseOrDie
  • 86. #5 : FIND STUFF @OptimiseOrDie @danbarker Analytics @fastbloke Analytics @timlb Analytics @jamesgurd Analytics @therustybear Analytics @carmenmardiros Analytics @davechaffey Analytics @priteshpatel9 Analytics @cutroni Analytics @avinash Analytics @Aschottmuller Analytics, CRO @cartmetrix Analytics, CRO @Kissmetrics CRO / UX @Unbounce CRO / UX @Morys CRO / Neuro @UXFeeds UX / Neuro @Psyblog Neuro @Gfiorelli1 SEO / Analytics @PeepLaja CRO @TheGrok CRO @UIE UX @LukeW UX / Forms @cjforms UX / Forms @axbom UX @iatv UX @Chudders Photo UX @JeffreyGroks Innovation @StephanieRieger Innovation @BrianSolis Innovation @DrEscotet Neuro @TheBrainLady Neuro @RogerDooley Neuro @Cugelman Neuro @Smashingmag Dev / UX @uxmag UX @Webtrends UX / CRO
  • 87. #5 : LEARN STUFF @OptimiseOrDie Baymard.com Lukew.com Smashingmagazine.com ConversionXL.com Medium.com Whichtestwon.com Unbounce.com Measuringusability.com RogerDooley.com Kissmetrics.com Uxmatters.com Smartinsights.com Econsultancy.com Cutroni.com www.GetMentalNotes.com
  • 88. #12 : The Best Companies… • Invest con.nually in analyBcs instrumentaBon, tools, people • Use an Agile, itera.ve, cross-­‐silo, one team project culture • Prefer collabora.ve tools to having lots of meeBngs • Priori.se development based on numbers and insight • PracBce real con.nuous product improvement, not SLEDD* • Are fixing bugs, cru, bad stuff as well as opBmising • Source photos and content that support persuasion and uBlity • Have cross channel, cross device design, tesBng and QA • Segment their data for valuable insights, every test or change • Con.nually reduce cycle (iteraBon) Bme in their process • Blend ‘long’ design, conBnuous improvement AND split tests • Make op.misa.on the engine of change, * Single Large Expensive Doomed Developments not the slave of ego
  • 89. THE FUTURE OF TESTING
  • 90. Get your quesBons in! Mail : sullivac@gmail.com Deck : slideshare.com/sullivac Linkedin : linkd.in/pvrg14 @OptimiseOrDie