Presentation by: Alexi Schnell Water Resources Specialist Water Planning Committee

1. Water Supply and Drought
Management Update
Water Planning Committee
November 20, 2014
Presentation by:
Alexi Schnell
Water Resources Specialist
Lake Oroville, September 5, 2014
Photo:

2. 2
Precipitation Outlook
November 2014 – January 2015

3. 3
Precipitation Outlook
December 2014 – February 2015

4. 4
El Niño Watch
 El Niño still predicted to develop by December
 58% Probability
 Consensus forecast favors a weak event

5. 5
Temperature Outlook
December 2014 – February 2015

6. California Drought Intensifies in 2014
NovemberJanuary
Governor declares
“Drought
Emergency”
February
Water Authority
notification of
“Drought Watch”
July
Water Authority
notification of
“Drought Alert”
6

7. State Water Project Reservoir Storage Conditions
7
 Storage as of Nov. 13
 910,446 AF
 26% total capacity
 43% historical average
 Storage one month ago (Oct. 15)
 1,033,129.6 AF
 29% total capacity
 48% historical average
- Lake Oroville

8. Lake Oroville Near Record Low Levels
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Current Level
910,446 AF
26% capacity
(Nov. 13, 2014)
Total Reservoir Capacity: 3.5
MAF
Record Low
Level
882,000 AF
25% capacity
(Sep. 7, 1977)
ReservoirLevel(TAF)
8
Lake Oroville
100% capacity – July 2011
36% capacity – Jan. 2014

9. State Water Project Reservoir Storage Conditions
9
 Storage as of Nov. 13
 409,230 AF
 20% total capacity
 36% historical average
 Storage one month ago (Oct. 15)
 427,089 AF
 21% total capacity
 42% historical average
- San Luis Reservoir

10. Northern Sierra 8-Station Water Year Precipitation Index
Water Year 2015 through November 17, 2014:
4.3 inches, 64% of average
WY 2014
WY 1977 (2nd driest)
10
WY 2015

11. Colorado River Hydrologic Conditions
 Water year 2015 precipitation through November 17,
2014 was 73% of average (3.1 inches)
 Combined storage in Lake Mead and Lake Powell
 October 31, 2014: 22.5 MAF, 45% Capacity
 October 31, 2013: 22.9 MAF, 45% Capacity
11

12. Local Service Area Conditions
 Local reservoir storage on November 17, 2014 was
approximately 233,356 AF, or 40% of capacity
Water Year 2015 Precipitation
Through November 19, 2014
Station Actual in. % Normal
Lindbergh Field 0.33 59%
Ramona Airport 0.54 69%
12

13. SWRCB Emergency Regulations
Monthly Reporting
Water Production by Urban Water Suppliers
 SWRCB staff reported statewide production
down 10.3% in September
 South Coast region down 7.5% in September
 Approximately 8.5 billion gallons saved
 New reporting requirement
 Residential gallons per-capita per day (R-GPCD)
 South Coast region reported 119 R-GPCD
 Anticipate October statewide production numbers and
R-GPCD data released at Dec. 2nd SWRCB meeting
13

14. Fiscal Year Potable Water Use in
Water Authority Service Area
20,000
40,000
60,000
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Acre-Feet
Water Use FY14 (AF) Water Use FY15 (AF)
14

15. Average Daily Maximum Temperature at
Lindbergh Field – Departure from Normal (oF)
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
Fiscal Year 2014 Fiscal Year 2015
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Hotter
Cooler
15
• October 2014 was 5.8o F warmer than normal
• Temperatures were 14o F above average the first week of October

16. Potable Water Use in Water Authority Service Area
% Increase Oct. 2013 to Oct. 2014
Potable Water Use 5.9%
M&I Potable Use
(excluding TSAWR)
3.8%
Urban Water Use Reporting
 Water Authority agricultural water use (TSAWR) is classified
under urban water supplies
 Water Authority has largest agricultural component in MWD
service area
 Intent of SWRCB emergency regulations to reduce outdoor
irrigation and other wasteful water practices
 effort not directed at agricultural irrigation
16

17. Other Factors Affecting October Water Use
17
Agricultural
 Untreated/Treated Water Shutdown
 Agriculture customers irrigated in advance
 Excessive heat required additional irrigation to
protect agricultural investments
M&I
 Excessive heat increased water use

18. Current Drought Activities
 Monitor water use and drought conditions
 Assist member agencies in compliance with SWRCB
Emergency Regulations
 Participate in MWD member agency review of Water
Supply Allocation Plan
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 Initiate review of Water Authority’s Supply Allocation
Methodology in early December 2014