2.  Schedule/Agenda for Upcoming Workshop
 Planning Perspectives
 Process for Developing the Master Plan
• Supply/Demand Scenario Development
• New Supply/Facility Alternatives
• Evaluation Criteria
2

3. Feb 28 - Water Planning Committee
• Planning Perspectives
• 2010 UWMP
• Supply and Demand Scenario Development
• Development of Infrastructure Portfolio Alternatives
• Evaluation Criteria/Utilization Thresholds
• Initial Modeling Results
Mar 14 - Special Water Planning Committee Workshop
• Review of Infrastructure Portfolios
 Baseline System
 Alternative Portfolios
• Detailed Modeling Results
 Baseline System and Alternative Portfolios
• CEQA Process
3

4.  Develop up to 80 MGD of seawater desalination
◦ Supply from the West, emphasis on reliability
 Develop 50 to 100 MGD of new treatment plant
capacity
◦ Capacity needed to alleviate regional shortfall/maintain reliability
 Develop 100,000 AF carryover storage to manage
seasonal peaks and drought conditions
 Implement internal system improvements
 Reaffirmed local supply development
 If all the above is achieved, additional imported
supplies (i.e., Pipeline 6) could be postponed for
several years
4

5. The Physical System Pipeline 6
2004 Facilities Master North County ESP PS
Plan
Twin Oaks Valley
100 MGD
Second Crossover Pipeline
System Regulatory Storage
Escondido/Vista ID
Carlsbad Seawater Desal Plant Olivenhain
Lake Hodges
Poway San Vicente
Badger
San Vicente
ESP and Carryover
Miramar Storage
El Capitan
Mission Trails Projects Levy
Alvarado
Sweetwater
Perdue
Lower Otay
Otay

6.  Reduced demands/increased conservation (2010 UWMP)
 Supply uncertainties
 Increased supply diversification
◦ Significant member agency planned/conceptual local projects
 Water rates and increasing price sensitivity
Regional Historic and Projected Normal-Weather Total Demand
900,000
2005 UWMP Projected Demand
1990-2011 (with BMP based conservation)
Historic Demand
Demand (Acre-Feet)
750,000
600,000
2012-2035 Projected Demand
(after SBX7-7 retail compliance)
450,000
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
2032
2035
Year Source: 2012 Annual Water Supply Report 6

7. San Diego County's Water Supply Portfolio
2015 2035
80 TAF 80 TAF 174 TAF
100 TAF 63 TAF
(11%) (8%) (18%) 50 TAF
(14%) (9%) 200 TAF (5%)
39 TAF (21%)
(6%) 56 TAF
(6%)
22 TAF
(3%) 28 TAF
(3%)
358 TAF 48 TAF
(7%) 324 TAF 47 TAF
(50%) (34%) (5%)
Total = 710 TAF Total = 959 TAF
Metropolitan Water District Recycled Water
Imperial Irrigation District Transfer Seawater Desalination
All American & Coachella Canal Lining Groundwater
Conservation (existing and additional) Local Surface Water
Normal Year Demand Projections, 2010 UWMP, with Conservation Savings.

8. 900,000
839,016
785,685
800,000 764,733 Groundwater
717,995 Recovery
687,520 745,589 Groundwater
Annual Supply or Demand (acre-feet)
700,000
647,285
674,701 659,230 Water Recycling
600,000 610,631
594,982 Surface Water
537,359
500,000
MWD
400,000 Carlsbad Desal
QSA Supplies
300,000
Total Demand Less
Conservation
200,000
Demand on Water
Authority
100,000
-
2015 Normal 2015 Dry 2025 Normal 2025 Dry 2035 Normal 2035 Dry
Data From 2010 UWMP, Normal and Single Dry Water Year
Supply and Demand Assessment (Tables 9-1 and 9-2) 8

9.  Urban Water Management Plan provides:
• Annual water demands on a regional basis
• Local and imported supply availability
• Identifies supply uncertainties
 State Water Project/Colorado River
 Local supply development
 Conservation savings
 Facilities Master Plan:
• Attributes demand to where a member
agency takes water
 From both aqueduct system and local sources
• Assesses physical system ability to serve
individual member agencies under differing
circumstances
 Weather variability
 Peaking patterns, seasonal and weekly
 What if demands on Water Authority are
different than assumed
9

10.  Purpose:
• Guiding document for new infrastructure investments through the
2035 planning horizon
 Key Objectives:
• Optimize existing conveyance system/local treatment plants
• Evaluate scope, timing and need of remaining CIP projects
 Currently included in CIP, but not yet constructed
• Evaluate need and timing for new infrastructure and supply projects
 Establish thresholds for facility utilization
• Integrate potential new desalination supplies into regional treatment
and conveyance system
• Develop a strategic plan for surface water storage with member
agencies
• Evaluate renewable energy opportunities
• Adapt to changes in future supply/demand conditions – treated and
untreated conveyance split
• Evaluate local supply development such as IPR
10

11. Frame the Problem
Framing/Scenario
Develop Scenarios of Development
Identify Performance
Future Supply and
Metrics & Thresholds
Demand
Evaluate System
Performance and
System Reliability
Reliability Analysis
Identify & Characterize
Options to Address Reliability
Options and Portfolio
Development
Develop Portfolios Based on
Response Strategies
Evaluate Portfolio
Performance and Portfolio Evaluation
Option Implementation
Develop Robust CIP
Identify Common Actions and
Develop Adaptive Strategy Strategies
11

12.  Master Plan Scenarios
• Built from 2010 UWMP scenarios
• Considers single/multiple dry years,
limited MWD supplies and local supply
mix
 Master Plan considerations
• Peak seasonal and daily demand patterns
• Local supply development variability
• Hydrology Data (112 years)
• Climate impacts
 Each Master Plan scenario attempts
to explore an aspect of supply and
demand uncertainty
12

13. Master Plan Update
Supply and Demand Scenarios
Scenario Description
Supplies and demands are consistent with the 2010 UWMP. All
Baseline member agency local supply development (“verifiable”) and
(2010 UWMP) conservation targets (per SBX7-7) are achieved. A subset of the
Baseline Scenario addresses climate change variation in demands.
Reduced Local Supply Additional member agency local supplies and conservation savings
are not achieved beyond year 2010 levels. This scenario establishes
Development and Conservation
the upper boundary for supply development by the Water Authority.
Member agency local supply development exceeds expectations
Enhanced Local Supply (“verifiable” and “planned”). Conservation targets, including additional
savings, are achieved. This scenario establishes the lower boundary
Development
for supply development by the Water Authority. A subset adds
conceptual projects.
Member agency local supply development and conservation savings
Adjusted Local Supply reach 50% of planned amounts (allows for member agency
Development uncertainty to meet established targets). Provides an intermediate
scenario to compare project timing against the baseline.
13

14. Steep increase in untreated water deliveries
500000
will require additional capacity
450000
400000
350000
300000
Acre Feet
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
MWD Untreated MWD Treated
Untreated includes MWD purchases and QSA supplies 14

15. Untreated water deliveries internal to Water Authority
may not require additional improvements
500000
450000
400000
350000
300000
Acre Feet
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
2005 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Untreated Deliveries Treated Deliveries
*Treated includes supplies from MWD, TOVWTP and Carlsbad Desal
**Untreated includes purchases from MWD and QSA supply
15

16. Master Plan Update
Water Authority Alternative Facility Portfolios
Portfolio Description
Each alternative is compared to the Baseline condition, which is the
Baseline Condition existing aqueduct system and ongoing CIP projects funded through
completion of construction. Baseline includes completion of the ESP
projects.
Emphasizes increased seawater desalination supplies from the
Supply from the West proposed Camp Pendleton Desalination Project. Evaluates new supply
in 50 MGD increments from a plant sized from 50 to 150 MGD.
Emphasizes increased regional surface water storage and out of region
Storage Optimization groundwater storage banking to address peak demand constraints on
the Baseline system.
Conveyance from the Emphasis is on continued reliance of imported supplies from MWD.
North New facilities include increasing conveyance capacity.
Conveyance from the East Emphasizes a new Colorado River Conveyance system to import QSA
supplies directly into the Aqueduct System at San Vicente Reservoir.
16

17.  Computer model representation of
conveyance, treatment and storage
system
• Includes SDCWA and portions of
member agency systems
 Links supplies/demands with system
capacity limitations
 Evaluates system response based on
historical data
 Model results compared against
performance criteria
• Determines infrastructure/new
supply need and timing
17

18. Key Shortage and Conveyance Utilization Evaluation Metrics
Metric Threshold Basis for Threshold
Annual shortages less than 20,000 AF can
Delivery Annual system shortage exceeds be addressed by operational or
20,000 AF, for two consecutive management actions, and would not
Reliability years. signify need for new infrastructure or
supply development.
Usage exceeds 95% of Conveyance usage near 95% is expected
Conveyance conveyance capacity for 15 during peak season. If usage exceeds
sequential days and 45 days thresholds, the system may not meet peak
Utilization during the peak season. for two demands or refill reservoirs. Water sales
consecutive years may be reduced.
18

19.  Baseline Condition
• Shortage risk is low due to dry weather only supply
impacts through 2025 regardless of demand
scenario
 Not considering pumping restrictions or regulatory
actions
• Beyond 2025, shortage risk strongly depends on
member agency meeting established targets for
conservation, reuse, and alternative supplies
 If implemented, City of San Diego IPR resolves most
long-term supply-demand imbalances
• Even low demand scenarios exhibit conveyance risks
around 2025
 Untreated water constraints
19

20.  Baseline
• Near term conveyance risks, can be managed by
coordinating member agency operations and
through use of seasonal storage pools
 Internal system improvements needed to address
existing conveyance bottlenecks
 Existing conveyance system will be fully utilized to
meet projected demands through planning horizon
20