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Financial planning & capital investment evaluation
1. PICPA 2nd General Membership Meeting
&
Capital Investment Evaluation
23rd February 2012, Thursday, 5:00PM – 10:00PM
1
2. Agenda
o Hierarchy of Planning
o Strategic Planning
o Financial Goal
o Financial Planning
o Capital Budgeting
o Investment Decisions
o Financing Decisions
o Evaluation Techniques
7. Determine the
current financial
position
Periodic review and
revise the financial
plan
Identify and set
financial goal
Financial
Planning
Process
Create &
Implement a
financial action plan
Identify suitable
investment
avenues
Evaluate alternative
& strategize
7
8. Determine the
current financial
position
Periodic review and
revise the financial
plan
Identify and set
financial goal
Financial
Planning
Process
Create &
Implement a
financial action plan
Identify suitable
investment
avenues
Evaluate alternative
& strategize
8
9. Financial Goal of the Corporation
The primary financial goal is
shareholder wealth maximization,
which translates to maximizing stock
price.
Current stock price relies upon current
earnings, as well as future earnings
and cash flow.
10. Factors that affect stock price
• Projected cash flows
to shareholders
• Timing of the cash
flow stream
• Riskiness of the
cash flows
11. Basic Valuation Model
CF1
CF2
CFn
Value
1
2
(1 k)
(1 k)
(1 k) n
n
CFt
.
t
t 1 (1 k)
To estimate an total enterprise value (asset’s
value), one estimates the cash flow for each period
t (CFt), the life of the asset (n), and the appropriate
discount rate (k)
12. Net Present Value
Future Value
PV = ----------------(1 + i)n
Where i = interest rate
n = number of years
The PV of Php1 @ 10% in 1 years time is 0.9090
If you invested 0.9090 centavos today and the interest
rate was 10% you would have Php1 in a year’s time
Process referred to as:
‘Discounting Cash Flow’
13. Factors that Affect the Level and
Riskiness of Cash Flows
• Decisions made by financial managers:
1. Investment decisions
2. Financing decisions (the relative use of debt
financing)
3. Dividend policy decisions
14. Capital Budgeting Within The Firm
The Position of Capital Budgeting
Financial Goal of the Firm:
Wealth Maximisation
Investment Decison
Long Term Assets
Short Term Assets
Financing Decision
Dividend Decision
Debt/Equity Mix
Dividend Payout Ratio
Capital Budgeting
14
15. Principles of Corporate Finance
1. Invest in projects that yield a return greater than the
minimum acceptable hurdle rate with adjustments for
project riskiness.
2. Choose a financing mix that minimizes the hurdle rate.
3. If there are not enough investments that earn the hurdle
rate, return the cash to stockholders.
4. These decision criteria will be consistent with the
objective of the firm: Maximize the Value of the
Firm
21. SWOT Analysis
Internal Factors
Strengths (S)
Weaknesses (W)
Opportunities (O)
SO Strategies
WO Strategies
External opportunities
goes here
Strategies use strength
that take advantage of
the opportunities
Strategies use
opportunities by
overcoming
weaknesses
Threats (T)
ST Strategies
WT Strategies
External threats goes
here
Strategies use strength
to avoid threats
Strategies minimize
weaknesses and avoid
threats
External Factors
21
22. Marketing Strategy
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
• BCG Growth/Share Matrix
– Analyzes business opportunities according to
growth rate and market share
(Build)
(Hold)
?
(Divest)
(Harvest)
39. Determine the
current financial
position
Periodic review and
revise the financial
plan
Identify and set
financial goal
Financial
Planning
Process
Create &
Implement a
financial action plan
Identify suitable
investment
opportunities
Evaluate alternative
& strategize
39
48. Corporate Finance Functions
1. Allocation of financial resources
What long-term investments should the firm
engage in?
2. Procurement of funds
How can the firm raise money for the required
investments?
3. Efficient and effective utilization of financial
resources.
How much short-term cash flow does a company
need to pay its bills?
48
50. The Balance-Sheet Model of the Firm
Total Value of Assets:
Total Firm Value to Investors:
Current Liabilities
Current Assets
Long-Term Debt
Fixed Assets
1 Tangible
2 Intangible
Shareholders’
Equity
50
51. The Balance-Sheet Model of the Firm
The Capital Budgeting Decision
(Investment Decision)
Current Liabilities
Current Assets
Long-Term Debt
Non Current Assets
1 Tangible
2 Intangible
What longterm
investments
should the
firm engage
in?
Shareholders’
Equity
51
52. Capital and Capital Budgeting
Capital:
is the stock of assets that will generate a
flow of income in the future.
Capital budgeting:
is the planning process used to determine
the cash inflow and cash outflow of the long
term investment (more than single
accounting period) and based on that it
measure viability of the project.
52
53. Restaurant Example
How much to invest in Equipment?
SR 200,000-
When to invest?
4Qtr 2012
How long to invest?
5 years
53
54. Cash Flows during a Capital Budgeting Project
Cash
Inflow
Cash Flows
Initiation
Operation
Project
Disposals
Cash
Outflow
54
55. Initiation Cash Flows (SR’000)
12P
+
+
Net Profit
Or +
Increase or Decrease of Working Capital
Depreciation
NOPAT Cash Flow
+
Post Tax Interest Expense
Unlevered Operating Cash Flow
Cost of New Assets
Tax on Gain on Sale of Old Assets
+
=
Proceeds from Sale of Old Assets
Unlevered Operating FCFF (Initiation Cash Flow)
12.2
0.5
11.8
24.5
9.8
34.3
(200)
0.0
0.0
165.7
The cost of new equipment is SR200M and released of working capital by
SR11.8M. Pretax interest expense is SR14M. Net profit is SR12.2M and
depreciation of existing fixed asset is SR0.5M. (Tax rate is 30%)
55
56. Operational Cash Flows (SR’000)
13P
+
Net Profit
+
Depreciation
or +
Increase or Decrease of WC
NOPAT Cash Flow
+
Post Tax Interest Expense
=
Unlevered Operating FCFF
6.8
20.5
1.2
28.5
7.8
36.3
XYZ company will generate net profit of SR6.8M in year 2013 and
planned to release working capital of SR1.2M of the same year. It has a
pretax interest expense of SR11.2M. The fixed assets of SR205M will be
depreciated over 10 years. (Tax rate is 30%)
56
57. Operational Cash Flows (SR’000)
13P
Gross Profit
61.9
Operating Expenses (excluding
depreciation)
20.6
=
Incremental Cash Flow
41.3
=
Incremental Cash Flow after Tax
28.9
+
Depreciation Tax Shield
6.2
or + Increase or Decrease of WC
1.2
+
=
Unlevered Operating FCFF
36.3
XYZ company planned to have an incremental margin of SR61.9M in year
2013 and will incur operating expenses (excluding depreciation) of
SR20.6M. The pretax interest expense is SR11.2M as the cost of debt.
Fixed assets of SR205M will be depreciated over 10 years. Decrease in
working capital is SR1.2M. (Tax rate is 30%)
57
58. Disposal Cash Flows (SR’000)
13P
Proceeds from Selling of disposed assets
+0.0
or +
Net tax effect due to gain on asset disposal
-0.0
or +
Increase or Decrease of Working Capital
+0.0
+
=
Incremental Cash Flow at Disposal
0.0
58
61. Company value
Value is what investors & lenders consider
worth paying NOW for the company’s
expected future income
Value NOW — called ‘present value’
This must exceed the cost of raising
capital from investors & lenders
61
62. Time Value of Money
(Timing of Cash Flow)
Value of SR1
=
Today
SR1
Today
Value of SR1
After One Year
=
SR0.91
Today
62
64. Cash Flow Analysis
(Evaluating Capital Investment)
• Net Present Value (SR Amount)
• Internal Rate of Return (%)
• Payback Method (# of years)
• Profitability Index (Profit/SR1 of investment)
64
65. Net Present Value
(Evaluating Capital Investment)
• NPV = PV of Future OFCFF – Initial Investment
Cash Flows
•Initiation
(SR165.7M)
•Operation
SR185.9M
•Disposals
SR0.0
NPV= 185.9 – 165.7 = SR20.2M
65
66. Net Present Value
(Evaluating Capital Investment)
Decision Criteria:
NPV > SR0
Project Return>Required Return
NPV = SR0
Project Return>Required Return
NPV< SR0
Project Return<Required Return
66
68. Internal Rate of Return
Decision Criteria:
If the IRR > Cost of Capital, accept the project
If the IRR = Cost of Capital, accept or reject
If the IRR < Cost of Capital, reject the project
68
69. Payback Method
(Evaluating Capital Investment)
Payback Period is the number of years needed to
recover the net initial investment.
Simple Payback Method
Payback Period = Yrs until full recovery+Unrecovered Cost at the Beg. of LY
Cash Flow During the Year
0
OFCF
4.6
(165.7)
1
2
3
4
5
36.3
39.2
44.9
50.6
57.3
3 Years Returns = 36.3+39.2+44.9
= SR120.3M
Unrecovered Cost = 45.4M / 44.9
= 0.90 Year
Payback Period = 3.9 Years
69
70. Profitability Index (PI)
(Evaluating Capital Investment)
PI measures how much profit each SR1 of investment
will generate.
PI = PV of Future Cash Flows / Initial Investment
•Initiation
•Operation
•Disposals
(SR165.7M)
SR185.9M
SR0.0
PI = SR 185.9M / 165.7M
= 1.12
70
71. Cash Flow Analysis
(Evaluating Capital Investment)
• Net Present Value (SR 20.2M)
• Internal Rate of Return (11.9%)
• Payback Method (3.9 years)
• Profitability Index (1.12)
71
73. The Balance-Sheet Model of the Firm
The Capital Budgeting Decision
(Financing Decision)
Current Liabilities
Current Assets
Long-Term Debt
Non Current Assets
1 Tangible
2 Intangible
How can the
firm raise the
money for the
required
investments?
Shareholders’
Equity
73
74. Capital Structure
The value of the firm
can be thought of as a
pie.
50% Debt
The goal of the
25% Debt 30%
Equity
manager is to increase
70% Debt
the size of the pie.
75%
50%
Equity
The Capital Structure
decision can be viewed
as how best to slice up
a the pie.
If how you slice the pie affects the size of
the pie, then the capital structure
decision matters.
74
75. Capital Structure :Debt and Equity
• The basic feature of a debt is that it is a
promise by the borrowing firm to repay a fixed
amount of by a certain date.
• The shareholder’s claim on firm value is the
residual amount that remains after the
debtholders are paid.
• If the value of the firm is less than the amount
promised to the debtholders, the shareholders
get nothing.
75
76. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
Cost of debt (rd): interest rate paid to creditors net of
taxes
Cost of equity (re): rate of return to shareholders in
order to induce them to invest in the firm
WACC : rd (1-tax)
D
(D + E)
+ re
E
(D + E)
76
77. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
WACC : rd (1-tax)
Component
Amount
D
(D + E)
Weight
+ re
Pretax
Cost
E
(D + E)
Pretax
WACC
LT Debt
35,000
0.70
10%
7.0%
Equity
15,000
0.30
6%
1.8%
Total
50,000
1.00
Tax Rate
30%
WACC
4.9%
1.8%
6.7%
77
78. Sources and Uses of Funds
Financing Mix
Amount
(SR’000)
Uses of Funds
Equipment
200
Sources of Funds
Debt
70%
140
Equity
30%
60
Total
100%
200
78
82. KPIs
11A
12P
13P
14P
15P
16P
NPV (SR‘000)
17P
20.2
IRR (%)
11.9%
Profitability Index (PI)
1.12
Payback Period (years)
3.9
Current Ratio
3.12
2.60
2.10
1.94
1.89
1.91
1.99
12
10
13
14
14
14
14
EVA
121.0
352
354.0
350.0
356.0
373.0
400.0
Profit Ratio
27.5% 15.3%
6.6%
11%
14.7% 17.6% 20.1%
Liquidity Index (Days)
ROE
0.0
11.4%
6.0%
10.4% 13.7% 15.9% 17.3%
Leading Financial Indicators
•
•
•
•
•
Sound financial position with a conservative current ratio greater than 1.0
The capital investment has a positive Net Present Value.
The IRR is higher than WACC.
The Profitability Index is greater than 1, hence it is acceptable investment.
The Economic Value Added is positive, hence the company is earning more than the
82
cost of capital.
83. The Balance-Sheet Model of the Firm
The Net Working Capital Investment Decision
(Financial Decision)
Current Liabilities
Current Assets
Net
Working
Capital
Non Current Assets
1 Tangible
2 Intangible
How much
short-term cash
flow does a
company need
to pay its bills?
Long-Term Debt
Shareholders’
Equity
83
87. Dividends and stock buybacks
• The two major means of returning cash to shareholders
is dividends and stock buybacks
• Effects of buybacks:
– Reduces the number of shares outstanding
88. Cash available to be returned
• The Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) is a measure of
how much cash is left in the business after non-equity
claimholders (debt and preferred stock) have been paid,
and after any reinvestment needed to sustain the firm’s
assets and future growth. This is the cash available for
dividend payouts.
Free cash flow to equity = Net Income + Depr&Amort
– Chg in WC – Cap Exp
+ (New Debt Issue – Debt Repay)
– Pref. Dividends
89. Intimidated by reports full of numbers?
Do you know how to deal with numbers?
Financial numbers?
Financial information?
Financial knowledge?
Financial intelligence?
89
90. The Continuum of Understanding
Know
Why
Know
How
Know
What
Know
nothing
90
92. Q&A instructions
1 min
1 min
• Break into small groups
• Work with your group to answer
question.
• Discussion of answer as entire
class
92
93. 1. Art and science of managing financial
resources of a business.
Ans: Financial Planning
2. Process of mapping the organization’s
future direction to attain desired goals.
Ans: Planning
3. Fill the gap between ‘where are now?’ and
‘where do we want to go?
Ans: Gap Analysis
93
94. 4. Also called the current state
analysis that provides a means to
organize the data gathered in the
detailed internal and external analysis
Ans: SWOT Analysis
5. Cash inflow in Depreciation
Ans: Depreciation Tax Shield
6. Rate of return wherein Net Present
Value is equal to zero.
Ans: Internal Rate of Return
94
95. 7. Present Value of future cash flows less
initial investment.
Ans: Net Present Value
8. Number of years needed to recover the
initial investment.
Ans:
Payback Period
9. Measure of how much profit each SR1 of
investment will generate.
Ans: Profitability Index
95
96. 10. Planning process used to determine the
cash inflow and cash outflow of the long
term investment.
Ans: Capital Budgeting
11. Analyzes business opportunities
according to growth rate and market share
Ans: BCG Growth / Share Matrix
12. Mix of long-term debt and equity
financing.
Ans: Capital Structure
96
97. 13. Weighted rate of debt and equity
Ans: WACC
14. A concept that a 1 peso today is worth
that 1 peso received tomorrow.
Ans: Time Value Concept
15. It measure in taking advantage the
borrowed capital and to enhance earnings
per share (EPS) and return on equity
(ROE).
Ans: Financial Leverage
97
98. 16. Measure of how much cash is left in the
business after non-equity claimholders
(debt and preferred stock) have been paid
Ans: Free Cash Flow to the Equity
17. Cash flow use in the calculation of total
enterprise value.
Ans: Unlevered Free Cash for the Firm
98
99. “If you fail to plan, then
you’re planning to fail”
by: Wharton Professor Emeritus
Russell Ackoff