3. ULI FALL 2010
RCLCO FORECAST TO 2020
2
Sources: RCLCO; Census; Moody’s Economy.Com
4. U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY AGE CATEGORY 2010-2020 (10 YEARS)
Demography is Destiny and the New Consumer
To Recover and Succeed in the Future We Must Understand
AGE GROUP
2,223,706
6,521,246
3,701,714
-2,268,604
718,786
1,162,381
-257,079
-3,000,000 -2,000,000 -1,000,000 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000
75+
65-74
55-64
45-54
35-44
25-34
15-24
Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010
Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University
Martin & Associates
5. Age Group 2010
Change
2010-2020
% Chg.
from 2010
under 25 6,540,049 -257,079 -3.9%
25-34 19,429,803 1,162,381 6.0%
35-44 21,729,364 718,786 3.3%
45-54 24,599,659 -2,268,604 -9.2%
55-64 21,129,717 3,701,714 17.5%
65-74 13,141,901 6,521,246 49.6%
75+ 11,965,405 2,223,706 18.6%
118,535,898 11,802,150 81.9%
U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY AGE CATEGORY 2010-2020 (10 YEARS)
Demography is Destiny and the New Consumer
To Recover and Succeed in the Future We Must Understand
Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010
Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University
Martin & Associates
2,223,706
6,521,246
3,701,714
-2,268,604
718,786
1,162,381
-257,079
6. U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY TYPE 2010-2020 (10 YEARS)
Demography is Destiny and the New Consumer
To Recover and Succeed in the Future We Must Understand
HOUSEHOLD TYPE
71,659
117,416
81,968
249,400
1,456,034
547,106
4,278,764
4,999,803
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000
Partnered w/ children
Single Parent w/ other
Partnered w/o child.
Single Parent alone
Other
Married w/ children
Single Person
Married w/o children
Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010
Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University
Martin & Associates
7. U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY TYPE 2010-2020 (10 YEARS)
Household Type 2010
Change
2010-
2020
%
Chg.
from
2010
% of
Total
2020
1. Married w/o children 34,441,134 4,999,803 14.5% 30%
2. Single Person 32,384,585 4,278,764 13.2% 28%
3. Married w/ children 25,272,364 547,106 2.2% 20%
4. Other 12,191,372 1,456,034 11.9% 10%
5. Single Parent alone 6,351,725 249,400 3.9% 5%
6. Partnered w/o child. 3,712,225 81,968 2.2% 3%
7. Single Parent w/ other 2,265,438 117,416 5.2% 2%
8. Partnered w/ children 1,917,055 71,659 3.7% 2%
118,535,898 11,802,150 10.0% 100%
Demography is Destiny and the New Consumer
To Recover and Succeed in the Future We Must Understand
71,659
117,416
81,968
249,400
1,456,034
547,106
4,278,764
4,999,803
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000
Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010
Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University
Martin & Associates
8. U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY RACE/ETHNICITY 2010-2020 (10 YEARS)
Demography is Destiny and the New Consumer
To Recover and Succeed in the Future We Must Understand
2,191,783
1,744,617
4,469,479
3,396,271
0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000
Black
Asian
Hispanic
White
Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010
Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University
Martin & Associates
9. Race/
Ethnicity
2010
Change
2010-
2010
%
Chg.
from
2010
% of
Total
2020
% of
Chg.
2010-
2020
White 83,574,504 3,396,271 4% 67% 29%
Hispanic 13,727,794 4,469,479 33% 14% 38%
Asian/Other
6,768,017 1,744,617 26% 6% 15%
Black 14,465,582 2,191,783 15% 13% 18%
118,535,897 11,802,150 10% 100% 100%
Demography is Destiny and the New Consumer
To Recover and Succeed in the Future We Must Understand
U.S. HOUSEHOLD GROWTH BY RACE/ETHNICITY 2010-2020 (10 YEARS)
2,191,783
1,744,617
4,469,479
3,396,271
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000
Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010
Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University
Martin & Associates
10. Projected Household Growth 11,802,000 72%
Projected Net Removal 3,279,000 20%
Projected Total Vacant Unit Demand 1,361,000 8%
Projected Total Demand for New Units 16,442,000 100%
Annual Average 1,644,000
Components of New Home Demand 2010-2020
Source: Updated 2010-2020 Household and New Home Demand Projections, September 2010
Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University
Martin & Associates
13. Place
Vision
A new model for Community
Development
Conceived as a small
southeastern town with pre-
1940s architecture
Maintain high planning and
architectural standards
Create icon buildings within the
community
Developers Execution
Use of world renowned
architects and planners
Created pattern books
Extensive modeling prior to
execution
Controls on 3rd party
builders/developers
14. Place
Today
Reuse of icon buildings
Critical mass continues to be a challenge
Icon buildings still significant
Developer still controls master architecture
Future Trends
On-going re-use of buildings
Change of ownership
Re-branding of old businesses
New business models
Challenges to meet new standards
Structured parking
Technology upgrades
Green Building and sustainable Initiatives
15. Education
Vision
New educational platform
School building to support new
learning strategies
Inspire curriculum changes in
public education
Comprehensive K -12 walkable
school
Developers Execution
Build school upfront as a
community amenity
Provided operating resources
above local level
Created resource partners from
major business for school
16. Education
Today
Two schools (K-8 and High School)
K-8 true community school
High School regional and traditional
No longer subsidized by 3rd parties
Private educational choices
Life long learning (Stetson University)
Future Trends
Public school community interaction
Ongoing sharing of facilities
Continually striving for achievement
Fund raising
Private educational venues grow
17. Health
Vision
Integrate health care
component into master plan
Secure Long-Term
Commitment from Major
Stakeholders
Become a world class leader
for health care delivery
Developers Execution
Made long term deal with
local provider
Gave protected rights to
mitigate providers risk
Provided architectural design
framework
Promoted health care
partners as community
stakeholders
18. Health
Today
Hospital continues to expand
Leader in new technology
Provides community fitness and
wellness
Home based health care never
worked.
Beacon for success of community
Future Trends
Health care stakeholders continue
to invest in leading edge solutions
Land plan makes expansion
efficient
Source of pride for community
Non-stakeholder Health services
complementary, not destructive
19. Technology
Vision
Community features designed by
panel of experts
Leverage Industry leaders to be
Stakeholders for execution
Give incentives to businesses for
participation
Developers Execution
Created Alliance partnerships with
competitive advantage
Subsidized initial capital
improvements for public facilities
Coordinated technology
implementation and framework
Maintained rights to access
Owned & operated backbone
infrastructure
20. Technology
Today
No organized community-wide effort
Local providers sold to national
companies
Initial stakeholders no longer visible
Local needs better solved by www.
based solutions
Future Trends
Original infrastructure is now
unsuitable for future
Technology will grow as any other
suburban location
Homes contain technology investment
that does not add value
My.name@celebration.fl.us
vs.
My.name@gmail.com
21. Community
Vision
Promote a socially interactive community
Leave a legacy
Inspire the civic framework for the future
Developers Execution
Served as a catalyst to create community
organizations
Provided initial start-up funding for many
civic & service groups
Proactively brought residents into
community governance roles
Supplied educational resources to support
community design and controls.
Guided media & public affairs
22. Community
Today
Stable and active community governance
Numerous civic and social organizations
Foundation providing on-going legacy
Developer’s on-going controls not viewed as
impediment for community’s growth
Community activities and events self funded
No developer influenced media hype
Future Trends
Directed by resident population
Importance of project’s legacy aligned
between residents and developer.
Developer still has major interest in non-
residential land
38. Community Engagement
• Community-based care design
• Flexible governance models
• Sustainable, strong soft-programming
• Supporting financial management model
• New model ensures engagement
39. Green will be Defined
• Environmental management
• Energy management
• Government directives
• Accredited Professionals (AP)
• Renewable energy certificates
