1. Afonso Ferreira
• Married and father of two children (17 and 11)
• Researcher in Computer Science (French CNRS &
INRIA)
• Research Administrator and Policy Maker
• Future and Emerging Technologies
• Digital Futures
INSAFE 2012 - Page 1 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

2. What’s Next?

3. China’s share of world’s export
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1820 1973 2006
INSAFE 2012 - Page 3 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

4. GDP distribution
INSAFE 2012 - Page 4 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

5. What was before:
The Industrial Revolution
• New technology (cotton mills) caused a financial
markets bubble
• A great deal of old-type jobs
(agricultural ) were lost
• Massive immigration
– Italy lost almost half of its population
– Ireland lost around 2/3 of its population
(current population smaller than in 1870)
• The start of a long-standing growth era (after several
wars, including two world-wars)
INSAFE 2012 - Page 5 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

6. Technological Revolutions
Higher Efficiency;
New Adoption in
New Jobs;
Technologies Business Processes
New Business Models
Massive Unemployment
& Economic
Education – Training
Social Unrest Slowdown
Infrastructures
New mindsets
Innovation
Adaptation
Scarceness of Skilled Population
Man-Power for New Jobs Unsettlement
INSAFE 2012 - Page 6 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

7. Examples of progress in ICT
1876 1997
2000
201?
INSAFE 2012 - Page 7 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

8. What’s now:
The Digital Revolution
(Log scale)
• Late 80’s: • By the time of the first
– Infant Internet Safer Internet Day:
– Embryonic Web – Facebook hadn’t been
launched yet
– Inexistent GSM phones 8 -
INSAFE 2012 - Page Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

9. And in 20 years from now
• Hypothesis 1
– Microprocessors industry will deliver more of and
more than Moore until 2030, as promised in their
roadmap
• Requirements
– Energy
– (Raw) Materials
– Water
• Corollary
– Computing power will increase at least 1000-fold from
today to 2030
INSAFE 2012 - Page 9 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

10. Let’s talk about
• Impact of the Digital Revolution on a
safer Internet and beyond
INSAFE 2012 - Page 10 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

11. DR enabling
Science & Technology
Normal Scientific Undertaking
Science Actor Science Result
Experiment
INSAFE 2012 - Page 11 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

12. DR enabling
Science & Technology
Industrial-Scale Science
Science Actors
Science Results
INSAFE 2012 - Page 12 - Afonso Ferreira –
Parallel and Accelerated Experiments
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

13. DR enabling
Science & Technology
• DR act on the experiments
– Make them faster
– Make them cheaper
– Make them multiple-input/multiple-output
• Hence, the Digital Revolution will transform the very process of
scientific endeavour, not only by significantly speeding-up
experiments, but also enabling parallel experiments, on one hand,
and a multiplicity of Science Actors, on the other hand.
• Some sorts of experiments are then commoditized and executed
by non trained Scientists
– http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-14986013
• Eventually, the DR will enable non trained Scientists to test
their own hypotheses
• The scientific endeavour will then itself receive accelerated
returns => Technological change becomes exponential
INSAFE 2012 - Page 13 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

14. • Bio-engineering
– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppILwXwsMng&feature=related
– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bkxuJwlquuQ&feature=related
• Regenerative medicine
– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LxL9J2IIe8Y&feature=BFa&list=PL34BC
FE6D55D881A1&lf=plpp
– http://www.fightaging.org/archives/2009/02/the-future-of-regenerative-
medicine.php
– http://videos.tf1.fr/infos/2011/etats-unis-une-imprimante-a-organes-en-3d-
6678522.html
• Brain-Machine Interfaces (BMI)
– http://gaggio.blogspirit.com/brain-computer_interface/
– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-fE9QBy0FI
• Large-scale personalized digital manufacturing (3D printing)
– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZboxMsSz5Aw
– http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20737-3d-printing-the-worlds-first-
printed-plane.html
– http://videos.tf1.fr/infos/2011/etats-unis-une-imprimante-a-organes-en-3d-
6678522.html (same as in regenerative medicine)
INSAFE 2012 - Page 14 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

15. DR impact
• Claim: These and other technological
developments will happen no matter what, bar
hyper disaster. Better be prepared
• Two Facts: Cyber-Physical convergence &
Digital Natives
• Needed: Early warning systems
• Philosophical note: The day where 3D-
printers will be able to print 3D-printers will
be pivotal in the history of technology
INSAFE 2012 - Page 15 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

16. Some other aspects of the
Digital Revolution
• Legal
– The case of the runner Pistorius will have been an internship test in
comparison
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAd5z-lq6pA
• Economical
– East-West (un)balance
– Digital economy in full gear
• New business models are required, adapted to a experience-based, Cyber
economy, rather than to the old object-based, Industrial economy (as in the
Games business)
• Prosumers
• Adapted regulation is required
• Societal
– Extensive re-engineering may be needed
• Life extension, new notion of tooabled in opposition to disabled, new ethical
systems, collapse of industrial models, and much more
– Governance 3.0
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2KmRb_ryhI&feature=BFa&list=PL34BCFE6
D55D881A1&lf=plpp
– Increased participation but with liquid citizenship
– New jobs/skills typology
• Skills gap; unemployment; the disappearance of procedural white-collar jobs, but
eventually also of the brain worker by lack of time due to the data deluge
INSAFE 2012 - Page 16 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

17. Thoughts about
Safety in the Cyber Realm
• It’d be misleading and even counterproductive to pretend that we could regulate in
anticipation of technology to come
• Our exercise will be efficient if it manages to prepare the ground for the establishment of
mechanisms allowing for future regulation to become quickly reactive
• Use of education and of incentive mechanisms are powerful
• Korea is a broadband society
– We cannot seriously look at our future as a broadband society without talking to them
• Games business is a path-opener
• Some trends present a larger certainty to materialise in future than others (eg
microprocessors industry roadmap). How to make use of this?
• It is difficult to have people project themselves far into the future. Several visions
expressed during Foresight 2030 in 2009 are to happen in… 2012!
INSAFE 2012 - Page 17 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

18. Policy matters
• Industrial era measures are ineffective
– Digital era measures must be devised
• Adapted and adaptive legal systems
– Should promote forward-looking, scenario-based development of legal systems
• Adapted and reactive safety frameworks
• Society re-engineering
– Societal fabrics should transform themselves, slowly but noticeably, to shape
envisioned desired scenarios
• Systemic approach
• Technology watch to detect unexpected areas of large impact
INSAFE 2012 - Page 18 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

19. Thoughts on regulation
• No boundaries global market • Focus on standards and
seems to imply that rules interoperability
should be user-centred • Fundamental rights could be
• Continuum between physical extended to the Digital Era
and cyber worlds also points (eg, Children Safety,
to regulation that does not Security, Data Protection)
specialises in one world or • Too tight regulation stifles
another, but rather on usage innovation
at large • Scientists recommend
• Focus should not be on bottom-up, organic, and
technology. Should be intrinsic regulation as more
impact-oriented robust
• User-centred guidelines
INSAFE 2012 - Page 19 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

20. Conclusion
• The future
– Bright or
– Bwrong
• What’s your perspective?
Let’s talk!
INSAFE 2012 - Page 20 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

21. Crafting Question for World Cafe
• How to implement children safety in the
hyperconnected world of 2020?
INSAFE 2012 - Page 21 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

22. Three Rounds
One Question per Round
• Round 1: What is the real quest behind
the crafting question?
• Round 2: What is missing?
• Round 3: Next steps and help needed.
INSAFE 2012 - Page 22 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

23. Table Leaders
• At each table there is one table leader
– Stay at table during all rounds
– Report to table newcomers at beginning of
Rounds 2 and 3
– Harvest content and ideas on charts
– Report three keywords to plenary
– Post charts for further reading
INSAFE 2012 - Page 23 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

24. Question Round 1
• What is the real quest behind the
crafting question?
• Crafting Question:
– How to implement children safety in the
hyperconnected world of 2020?
INSAFE 2012 - Page 24 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

25. Question Round 2
• What is missing?
• Crafting Question:
– How to implement children safety in the
hyperconnected world of 2020?
INSAFE 2012 - Page 25 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"

26. Question Round 3
• Next steps and help needed.
• Crafting Question:
– How to implement children safety in the
hyperconnected world of 2020?
INSAFE 2012 - Page 26 - Afonso Ferreira –
"The views expressed in this presentation are the sole responsibility of the speaker and
in no way represent the view of the European Commission and its services"