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Hiding in plain sight: Lessons from landmark clinical trials Steve Goodman, MD, PhD
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Project ImpACT: a little history ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Purposes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Dimensions of “importance” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
ImpACT activities ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
ImpACT fields ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
ImpACT Website ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Trials for today ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Trials I would love to talk about ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Background ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Salk vaccine trial timeline  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Trial logistics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],$7 Million ,[object Object]
Debate over randomization ,[object Object],[object Object]
Time urgency ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Public participation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Salk vaccine trial timeline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Study Design ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conduct issues ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Timeline, cont. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],MMWR. 41(55):46, Sept 1993, CDC, Atlanta, Georgia. Vaccine Cohort # Participants All Reported Cases Paralytic Polio Nonparalytic Polio # Cases Attack Rate # Cases Attack Rate # Cases Attack Rate Placebo-Controlled Trial Vaccinated 200,745 82 41 33 16 24 12 Placebo 201,229 162 81 115 57 27 13 Observational Control Trial Vaccinated 221,998 76 34 38 17 18 8 Controls 725,173 439 61 330 46 61 8
Impact ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Lessons from the Salk trial  (T. Burke, 2004) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The ECMO controversy When tough cases don’t make good trials
The ECMO Circuit
Background ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bartlett Article
Bartlett: Play-the-Winner Design ECMO Survived CMT Died 10 ECMO: survived 1 CMT: died
Trial Motivation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The ECMO Controversy “ Children’s Hospital made  a serious error .” - Office for Protection from Research Risks, NIH
The Harvard Neonatal ECMO Trial  Randomized newborns with PPHN to  conventional therapy versus ECMO Conventional Therapy NICU: 7th Floor Neonatologists No patients had ever been offered ECMO Anti-ECMO ECMO PICU: 5th Floor Anesthesiologists & Surgeons Already had experience with ECMO for newborns with CDH Pro-ECMO
The Harvard Neonatal ECMO Trial: Randomized Consent ,[object Object],RANDOMIZE Do not seek consent Seek consent  for ECMO CMT CMT ECMO Yes No
Results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Newspaper coverage ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Response to the ECMO Trial The hospital IRB “made decisions that rightfully belonged to the parents. They really blew it.” Charles McCarthy, Director of OPRR The NIH Office for Protection from Research Risks (OPRR) reprimanded the hospital: The doctors “were doing exactly what physicians did before we had a doctrine of informed consent - making decisions for parents.” George Annas, Boston University
A Justification
With comment… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Problem of “Randomized Consent” "It's clear to me they did not ask consent because it would be hard to get a control group otherwise.  Properly informed parents would say 'No thank you.’ ” -  Richard M. Royall, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health “ [Seeking consent from those randomized to the conventional medical treatment] would  impose unacceptable psychological burdens  on the parents of children not included in the ECMO arm of the study.” -  Dr. Peter H. Wolff , Chair of Children’s Hospital IRB
The Problem of Adaptive Randomization "The clear expectation was that more patients would die on conventional therapy.  So the  question is whether having an excess of deaths balances the worth of information gained . Since I believe such information is available without randomizing, my answer is a resounding no.” -  Donald A. Berry, University of Minnesota "The Harvard study was informed by the slightly hysterical view that we must immediately stop a study as soon as we have an idea which treatment might be better.  If we're not careful, we will soon have a system in which we can establish nothing. ” -  Paul Meier, University of Chicago
Are RCTs the only way to learn? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Meinert on ECMO  (Pediatrics, 1990) ,[object Object],[object Object]
Chalmers: “A Belated Randomized Trial” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Chalmers, continued ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Lantos and Fader, NEJM, 1991
NIH Consensus Conference ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
NIH Consensus Recommendations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Additional research ,[object Object]
 
The UK Neonatal ECMO Trial ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Problem of Adaptive Randomization ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Postscript, 2005 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Issues raised ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Women’s Health Initiative 1993 - 2002
 
Previous systematic review showed increased risk of cardiovascular events with HRT
Controversies ,[object Object],[object Object]
Results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Impact ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
06/06/09
Endpoints in WHI trial 06/06/09
WHI stopping rule ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/06/09
06/06/09
06/06/09
06/06/09
06/06/09
06/06/09
WHI DSMB recommendation 06/06/09
NIH Letter #1 06/06/09
Issues in stopping the ERT trial ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],06/06/09
DSMB vote: May, 2003 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Lessons ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Comparison of Total Mastectomy and Lumpectomy With or Without Radiation (NSABP B-06)  1976-1984 National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project Bernard Fisher, MD  Chairman and Scientific Director, NSABP Carol K. Redmond, ScD  Director, NSABP Biostatistics Center
Background ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Study Design ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Issues ,[object Object],[object Object]
Results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Impact ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Consequences of “fraud” ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
Postscript ,[object Object],[object Object]
Impact ,[object Object]
Advisory Board ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
ImpACT Staff Emily Evans Gila Neta* Alison Brown Sara Lowther* Olaide Odelola
ImpACT staff ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Project leaders Harry Marks Karen Robinson
Final thoughts on the need for RCTs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Imp Act Presentation

  • 1. Hiding in plain sight: Lessons from landmark clinical trials Steve Goodman, MD, PhD
  • 2. This talk is brought to you by…
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  • 25. The ECMO controversy When tough cases don’t make good trials
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  • 29. Bartlett: Play-the-Winner Design ECMO Survived CMT Died 10 ECMO: survived 1 CMT: died
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  • 31. The ECMO Controversy “ Children’s Hospital made a serious error .” - Office for Protection from Research Risks, NIH
  • 32. The Harvard Neonatal ECMO Trial Randomized newborns with PPHN to conventional therapy versus ECMO Conventional Therapy NICU: 7th Floor Neonatologists No patients had ever been offered ECMO Anti-ECMO ECMO PICU: 5th Floor Anesthesiologists & Surgeons Already had experience with ECMO for newborns with CDH Pro-ECMO
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  • 36. The Response to the ECMO Trial The hospital IRB “made decisions that rightfully belonged to the parents. They really blew it.” Charles McCarthy, Director of OPRR The NIH Office for Protection from Research Risks (OPRR) reprimanded the hospital: The doctors “were doing exactly what physicians did before we had a doctrine of informed consent - making decisions for parents.” George Annas, Boston University
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  • 39. The Problem of “Randomized Consent” "It's clear to me they did not ask consent because it would be hard to get a control group otherwise. Properly informed parents would say 'No thank you.’ ” - Richard M. Royall, Johns Hopkins School of Public Health “ [Seeking consent from those randomized to the conventional medical treatment] would impose unacceptable psychological burdens on the parents of children not included in the ECMO arm of the study.” - Dr. Peter H. Wolff , Chair of Children’s Hospital IRB
  • 40. The Problem of Adaptive Randomization "The clear expectation was that more patients would die on conventional therapy. So the question is whether having an excess of deaths balances the worth of information gained . Since I believe such information is available without randomizing, my answer is a resounding no.” - Donald A. Berry, University of Minnesota "The Harvard study was informed by the slightly hysterical view that we must immediately stop a study as soon as we have an idea which treatment might be better. If we're not careful, we will soon have a system in which we can establish nothing. ” - Paul Meier, University of Chicago
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  • 57. Previous systematic review showed increased risk of cardiovascular events with HRT
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  • 62. Endpoints in WHI trial 06/06/09
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  • 70. NIH Letter #1 06/06/09
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  • 74. Comparison of Total Mastectomy and Lumpectomy With or Without Radiation (NSABP B-06) 1976-1984 National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project Bernard Fisher, MD Chairman and Scientific Director, NSABP Carol K. Redmond, ScD Director, NSABP Biostatistics Center
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  • 86. ImpACT Staff Emily Evans Gila Neta* Alison Brown Sara Lowther* Olaide Odelola
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  • 88. Project leaders Harry Marks Karen Robinson
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