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Peter Albers: Risk adapted screening
1. Peter Albers, MD
Professor of Urology
Department of Urology
Düsseldorf University Hospital
Heinrich-Heine-University Düsseldorf, Germany
Why Prostate Cancer Screening ?
10. Vickers A et al. (MSKCC) BMJ 2013
„baseline“ PSA und prognosis
PSA at 45 yrs risk for metastasis
after 25 yrs
PSA < 1.1 ng/ml 1.38%
PSA > 1.6 ng/ml up to 9.82%
10x higher risk > 1.6 ng/ml
11. 50% of men are „low risk“ and can be identified with
3 „life-time“ PSA values within 10 yrs below median
Lilja H et al, ASCO 2011
Hypothesis: 3 x PSA is enough !
13. Risk-adapted prostate cancer (PCa) early detection study based on a “baseline”
PSA value in young men – a prospective multicenter randomized trial (PROBASE)
Principle Investigators:
Peter Albers (Düsseldorf University)
Nikolaus Becker / Rudolf Kaas (DKFZ, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg)
14. 90% 8% 2%
„baseline“ PSA
< 1.5 ng/ml
PSA test interval
5 yrs
1.5 -2.99 ng/ml > 3.0 ng/ml
PSA test interval
2 yrs
mpMRT and
biopsy
15. Accrual Feb 2014 – Sep 2018
10/2018: > 40.000 men, end of accrual: 12/2019
16. Carlsson S. et al Eur Urol 2017
NN to diagnose (after 17 yrs): 16
NN to diagnose (after 13 yrs): 32
(ERSPC: 27)
• early PCA screening reduces mortality
• is justified if active surveillance is performed in low risk cancers
Sweden: early screening (50-54 J) dramatically
reduces number needed to diagnose
17. Cost effectiveness of early screening (Markov model)
(PSA tests at age 55 – 57 – 59)
Heijnsdijk EAM et al Int J Cancer 2017
• organized PCA screening ist cost effective
18. Risk-adapted screening „take home“
• risk-adapted screening will prevent unnecessary
and „grey“ screening in 90% of men
• will identify 1-2% of men with early prostate
cancer
• can be terminated at age 60
• is cost-effective
• must not be followed by treatment in every case
(„active surveillance“ of low risk cancers)