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Ricarda Rieger, UNDP Resident Representative, a.i.

                 15 March 2013
RISE OF THE SOUTH:

• TECTONIC SHIFTS

• EXPANSION OF HUMAN
  CAPABILITIES AND CHOICES
% Share of world output




                                                                        20
                                                                             30
                                                                                             60




                                                                   10

                                                              0
                                                                                  40
                                                                                        50
                                                      1820
                                                      1830
                                                      1840
                                                      1850




             Brazil, India, China
                                                      1860
                                                      1870
                                                      1880
                                                      1890
                                                      1900
                                                       1910
                                                      1920
                                                      1930
                                                      1940
                                                      1950
                                                      1960
                                                      1970
                                                                                                  GLOBAL REBALANCING




                                                      1980
                                                      1990
                                                      2000
             Germany, France, Italy, UK, US, Canada




                                                      2030
                                                      2050
   WORLD
A CHANGING
REALIGNMENT OF WORLD TRADE
                                     60
% share of world merchandise trade




                                     50

                                     40

                                     30                                                    South-South
                                                                                           North-North
                                     20

                                     10

                                      0
                                          1980   1985   1990   1995   2000   2005   2010

                                                                                              A CHANGING
                                                                                                 WORLD
RAPID HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE GLOBE
              1
                                                                      Korea, Rep.
                                                                        Chile
                                                            Brazil Mexico
                                                               Malaysia
            0.8                                       Mauritius
                                              Thailand Turkey
                                                    Tunisia                    Ukraine
                                                  China
                                           Indonesia
                                    Viet Nam
            0.6
 HDI 2012




                                           Ghana
                                     India
                             Lao PDR
                             Bangladesh
                          Uganda
            0.4       Rwanda



            0.2


             0
                  0            0.2             0.4        0.6                   0.8      1   A CHANGING
                                                  HDI 1990                                      WORLD
MASSIVE EXPANSION OF THE
 GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS
    1990 (1.8 billion)
                            2020 (3.2 billion)


                                                 2030 (4.9 billion)


Europe and North America
Asia-Pacific
Central and South America
Rest of the World




                                                             A CHANGING
                                                                WORLD
INTERNET CONNECTIVITY

                            1800
                            1600
                            1400
Internet users (millions)




                            1200
                            1000
                            800
                            600
                            400
                            200
                              0
                                   1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
                                                   South    North
Why have some countries done
     better than others?

What can we learn from them?

What are the common drivers?
PROACTIVE
DEVELOPMENTAL STATES


1
    Commitment to
    long-term human
    development
                           2   Actively promoting
                               job creation




3                          4
    Enhancing public
                               Nurturing industrial
    investment in health
                               capacities
    and education


                                               DRIVERS
TAPPING GLOBAL MARKETS


1
    Investment in
    people to make the best



                             2
    of trade opportunities
                                 Investing in
                                 infrastructure to
                                 facilitate market access




3    Expanding into non-
     traditional markets

                                                       DRIVERS
SOCIAL POLICY INNOVATIONS


1                             2
    TURKEY
    Health care for all
                                  BRAZIL
    and targeting the             Expanding education
    poor                          access by equalizing
                                  funds across regions and
                                  municipalities




3                             4
    MEXICO                         INDIA
    Poverty reduction              Extending development
    through innovative cash        benefits to the broader
    transfer programmes            society key to accelerating
                                   progress            DRIVERS
How can we sustain human
   development for the
  generations to come?
PROMOTING EQUITY, VOICE
AND ACCOUNTABILITY


1                             2
    Countries with less
                                  Women’s education
    inequality   do better        is essential to reduce
    and improve more in           gender inequality
    human development




3                             4
     Educated, interconnect       Participation and
     ed youth demand
     greater
                                  inclusion essential to
     accountability               stability and social
                                  cohesion

                                                      SUSTAINING
                                                      MOMENTUM
CONFRONTING
ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES




                           SUSTAINING
                           MOMENTUM
COST OF INACTION:
POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACT ON POVERTY
IS DEMOGRAPHY DESTINY?


1   Education is key to
    reduce fertility rates




                             2
                                    Skills formation and
                                    productivity gains can help cope
                                    with a rapidly aging population




3
     To reap a demographic dividend
     and benefit youth bulge, job
     creation should have priority
                                                            SUSTAINING
                                                            MOMENTUM
THE RISE OF THE SOUTH

• Governance for a changed world
REDESIGN FOR A NEW ERA


1
    COHERENT PLURALISM
    Rise in regional institutions




                               2
    and finance mechanisms
                                         MORE SPACE FOR NON
                                         STATE ACTORS
                                         Citizen networks and social
                                         media can diffuse new norms




3
                                         to reinforce accountability of
    GLOBAL GOVERNANCE                    both state and private actors
    For fair representation and shared
    responsibility, 20th century
    institutions must adapt to 21st
    century realities
                                                            IMPLICATIONS
PRIORITIES FOR A NEW ERA
•   Rising economic strength must be matched by a full
    commitment to human development

•   LDCs can learn and benefit from the success of emerging
    economies

•   Greater representation for the South and CSOs can
    accelerate progress on major global challenges

•   The rise of the South presents new opportunities for
    generating a greater supply of global public goods
UKRAINE IN HUMAN
DEVELOPMENT INDEX
UKRAINE’S HDI 2012

• Ukraine’s HDI value is 0.740 – in the high human
  development category – positioning the country at 78
  out of 187 countries and territories.

• Between 1990 and 2012, Ukraine’s HDI value increased
  from 0.714 to 0.740, an increase of 4 percent or average
  annual increase of about 0.2 percent.
UKRAINE’S HDI 2012
Table: Ukraine’s HDI trends based on consistent time series data, new
component indicators and new methodology
             Life expectancy Expected years   Mean years of   GNI per capita
                                                                               HDI value
                  at birth    of schooling     schooling       (2005 PPP$)
1980               69.3           11.9             7.4
1985               70.2           12.2             8.2
1990               69.8           12.5             9.1            8,252          0.714
1995               67.9           11.9            10.4            3,835           0.67
2000               67.4           12.7            10.7            3,585          0.673
2005               67.5           14.2            11.1            5,520          0.718
2010               68.2           14.8            11.3            5,938          0.733
2011               68.5           14.8            11.3            6,210          0.737
2012               68.8           14.8            11.3            6,428          0.740
UKRAINE’S HDI 2012

 Table: Ukraine’s HDI indicators for 2012 relative to selected countries and
 groups
                                            Life     Expected                   GNI per
                                                                 Mean years
                     HDI value HDI rank expectancy    years of                capita (PPP
                                                                 of schooling
                                          at birth   schooling                   US$)
Ukraine               0.740      78        68.8         14.8         11.3        6,428
Kazakhstan            0.754      69        67.4         15.3         10.4       10,451
Russian Federation    0.788      55        69.1         14.3         11.7       14,461
Europe and Central
                      0.771      —         71.5        13.7         10.4         12,243
Asia
High HDI              0.758      —         73.4        13.9          8.8         11,501

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Human Development Report 2013 and Ukraine Presentation [ENG]

  • 1. Ricarda Rieger, UNDP Resident Representative, a.i. 15 March 2013
  • 2. RISE OF THE SOUTH: • TECTONIC SHIFTS • EXPANSION OF HUMAN CAPABILITIES AND CHOICES
  • 3. % Share of world output 20 30 60 10 0 40 50 1820 1830 1840 1850 Brazil, India, China 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 GLOBAL REBALANCING 1980 1990 2000 Germany, France, Italy, UK, US, Canada 2030 2050 WORLD A CHANGING
  • 4. REALIGNMENT OF WORLD TRADE 60 % share of world merchandise trade 50 40 30 South-South North-North 20 10 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 A CHANGING WORLD
  • 5. RAPID HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GLOBE 1 Korea, Rep. Chile Brazil Mexico Malaysia 0.8 Mauritius Thailand Turkey Tunisia Ukraine China Indonesia Viet Nam 0.6 HDI 2012 Ghana India Lao PDR Bangladesh Uganda 0.4 Rwanda 0.2 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 A CHANGING HDI 1990 WORLD
  • 6. MASSIVE EXPANSION OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS 1990 (1.8 billion) 2020 (3.2 billion) 2030 (4.9 billion) Europe and North America Asia-Pacific Central and South America Rest of the World A CHANGING WORLD
  • 7. INTERNET CONNECTIVITY 1800 1600 1400 Internet users (millions) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 South North
  • 8. Why have some countries done better than others? What can we learn from them? What are the common drivers?
  • 9. PROACTIVE DEVELOPMENTAL STATES 1 Commitment to long-term human development 2 Actively promoting job creation 3 4 Enhancing public Nurturing industrial investment in health capacities and education DRIVERS
  • 10. TAPPING GLOBAL MARKETS 1 Investment in people to make the best 2 of trade opportunities Investing in infrastructure to facilitate market access 3 Expanding into non- traditional markets DRIVERS
  • 11. SOCIAL POLICY INNOVATIONS 1 2 TURKEY Health care for all BRAZIL and targeting the Expanding education poor access by equalizing funds across regions and municipalities 3 4 MEXICO INDIA Poverty reduction Extending development through innovative cash benefits to the broader transfer programmes society key to accelerating progress DRIVERS
  • 12. How can we sustain human development for the generations to come?
  • 13. PROMOTING EQUITY, VOICE AND ACCOUNTABILITY 1 2 Countries with less Women’s education inequality do better is essential to reduce and improve more in gender inequality human development 3 4 Educated, interconnect Participation and ed youth demand greater inclusion essential to accountability stability and social cohesion SUSTAINING MOMENTUM
  • 15. COST OF INACTION: POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ON POVERTY
  • 16. IS DEMOGRAPHY DESTINY? 1 Education is key to reduce fertility rates 2 Skills formation and productivity gains can help cope with a rapidly aging population 3 To reap a demographic dividend and benefit youth bulge, job creation should have priority SUSTAINING MOMENTUM
  • 17. THE RISE OF THE SOUTH • Governance for a changed world
  • 18. REDESIGN FOR A NEW ERA 1 COHERENT PLURALISM Rise in regional institutions 2 and finance mechanisms MORE SPACE FOR NON STATE ACTORS Citizen networks and social media can diffuse new norms 3 to reinforce accountability of GLOBAL GOVERNANCE both state and private actors For fair representation and shared responsibility, 20th century institutions must adapt to 21st century realities IMPLICATIONS
  • 19. PRIORITIES FOR A NEW ERA • Rising economic strength must be matched by a full commitment to human development • LDCs can learn and benefit from the success of emerging economies • Greater representation for the South and CSOs can accelerate progress on major global challenges • The rise of the South presents new opportunities for generating a greater supply of global public goods
  • 21. UKRAINE’S HDI 2012 • Ukraine’s HDI value is 0.740 – in the high human development category – positioning the country at 78 out of 187 countries and territories. • Between 1990 and 2012, Ukraine’s HDI value increased from 0.714 to 0.740, an increase of 4 percent or average annual increase of about 0.2 percent.
  • 22. UKRAINE’S HDI 2012 Table: Ukraine’s HDI trends based on consistent time series data, new component indicators and new methodology Life expectancy Expected years Mean years of GNI per capita HDI value at birth of schooling schooling (2005 PPP$) 1980 69.3 11.9 7.4 1985 70.2 12.2 8.2 1990 69.8 12.5 9.1 8,252 0.714 1995 67.9 11.9 10.4 3,835 0.67 2000 67.4 12.7 10.7 3,585 0.673 2005 67.5 14.2 11.1 5,520 0.718 2010 68.2 14.8 11.3 5,938 0.733 2011 68.5 14.8 11.3 6,210 0.737 2012 68.8 14.8 11.3 6,428 0.740
  • 23. UKRAINE’S HDI 2012 Table: Ukraine’s HDI indicators for 2012 relative to selected countries and groups Life Expected GNI per Mean years HDI value HDI rank expectancy years of capita (PPP of schooling at birth schooling US$) Ukraine 0.740 78 68.8 14.8 11.3 6,428 Kazakhstan 0.754 69 67.4 15.3 10.4 10,451 Russian Federation 0.788 55 69.1 14.3 11.7 14,461 Europe and Central 0.771 — 71.5 13.7 10.4 12,243 Asia High HDI 0.758 — 73.4 13.9 8.8 11,501

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Educated, interconnected youth are demanding greater accountability from national institutions
  2. Confront environmental challenges: Should an environmental disaster scenario materialize, the gains in poverty reduction can be reversed
  3. Ageing challenge has to be met partly with rising productivity through skill formation
  4. Between 1980 and 2012, Ukraine’s life expectancy at birth decreased by 0.5 years, mean years of schooling increased by 3.9 years and expected years of schooling increased by 2.9 years. Ukraine’s GNI per capita decreased by about 22 percent between 1990 and 2012.
  5. Ukraine’s 2012 HDI of 0.740 is below the average of 0.758 for countries in the high human development group and below the average of 0.771 for countries in Europe and Central Asia. From Europe and Central Asia, countries which are close to Ukraine in 2012 HDI rank and population size are Kazakhstan and Russian Federation, which have HDIs ranked 69 and 55 respectively