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Economic Prosperity and Resilience in the New Era of Biocapacity Constraints
1. Economic Prosperity and Resilience
In the New Era of Biocapacity Constraints
Dr. Mathis Wackernagel
May 26, 2011 – UNDP Climate Change and Development
6. Accounting Framework for
Ecological Services
Biocapacity:
How much
bioproductive area
is available to us?
Ecological Footprint:
How much bioproductive
area do we demand?
7. The Basic Equation
Amount per year
Area = -------------------------
Yield
Translate area from ha into global ha…
11. EITHER: ~ 2°C X
450 ppm?
350 ppm?
Tragedy of the Commons?
Yes, but…
OR: 1700 ppm
12. A special report on debt
Re:
A better way
The rich world should
worry about growth-
promoting reforms
more than short-term
fiscal austerity
13. Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Europe
Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005
DE BY
AT BE DK
ES SK FR FI GR
NL HU IT IR PO
PT CZ UK RO RU
RS CH SE UA
14. Mathis’ life (1962 – onwards)
Annual deficit adds up to a
global biocapacity debt
15. Mathis’ life UN’s Most Moderate Scenario
Biocapacity Debt
16.
17.
18.
19.
20. Preparing for resource
constraints is in the most direct
self-interest of cities and
countries. (much more so than for
individuals or companies…)
mathis@footprintnetwork.org
21.
22.
23. Ecological Footprint
per person
Deficit
Biocapacity per person
3.00
2007
Food Housing
2.50 Mobility Goods
Services Government
gha per capita
2.00 GFC Other
1.50
ITALY 1.00
0.50
0.00
Cropland Grazing Land Forest Land Fishing Carbon Built-up Land
Grounds Uptake Land
24. PER CAPITA
/ PER CAPITA
CONSUMPTION
RESOURCE
EFFICIENCY
= ECOLOGICAL
FOOTPRINT
(DEMAND)
DIFFERENCE BETW.
Five Factors BIOCAPACITY
DEMAND AND
BIOCAP. SUPPLY
BIO-
PRODUCTIVITY PER CAPITA
AREA
= BIOCAPACITY
x / POPULATION
(SUPPLY)
25. NEW!
MRIO (GTAP7 based)
covering 93 countries (+ 20 regions)
• Consumption – break down national total
into 59 consumption categories
• Import – which countries do these 59 cats
come from?
• Export – in which countries do exports
get consumed?
33. How close are we today to attaining global sustainability?
national biocapacity
Conventional
belief
Collapse
Sustainable
path
34. offical national gov Footprint studies
we’re working on national govs
WBCSD
UNDP
EP and EC
UNEP Green Econ.
SEEA (?)
(2011)
35.
36.
37.
38. Summary
• The planet has a budget. Do you
know how much biocapacity you
have? and how much you use?
• Blindness costs lives & opportunities.
• Link to economic stability and
competitiveness
mathis@footprintnetwork.org
41. Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Africa
Ecological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005
Alge. CM
AO BF CG
CI EG ET GH KE
MG MW ML MA MZ
NE NG ZA SD SN
TZ UG ZM ZW
42. Shrinking Increasing
Biocapacity Ecological
Credit and Social
Instability