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Business Valuation

       Session 3




     Abhimanyu
      August 30, 2009
Value and Price
           • Value of a particular business or asset may be different for
             different parties depending upon strategic intent, synergies or
             for other reasons.
           • Value must be clearly distinguished from price and businesses
             may justifiably undertake to consummate a transaction at a
             price which does not fall within an assessed fair value range.
           • Given the valuations or valuation range / band suggested by
             valuers, the prerogative to decide upon a specific price is
             finally with the management and the Board of Directors of the
             Company.
           • The valuation is only a tool to aid management in decision-
             making.
           • The valuation is also time dependent.

September 12, 2009                Corporate Restructuring | Session 1          2
Valuation Methods
           • Asset Approach
                 – Book Value, Adjusted Book Value, and Liquidation Value
           • Income Approach
                 – Capitalization of Earnings, Capitalization of Excess Earnings, and
                   Discounted Future Earnings/Cash Flows, Discounted Future EVAs.
           • Market Approach
              – Current Market Prices, Historical Market Prices, Price to
                Earnings, Price to Revenue, Price to Book Value, Price to
                Enterprise Value
           • Comparable Transactions/Relative Valuations
              – Comparable International and Domestic Transactions.
           • Sum-of-parts Method
           • Real Options Value

September 12, 2009                     Corporate Restructuring | Session 1              3
Asset Approach
           • May be important in capital intensive industries
             or in acquisitions where valuable non-operating
             assets can be stripped after the purchase of the
             company to recover part of acquisition cost.
           • Where there are no (or very little) intangibles.
           • This approach is inappropriate in case of
             acquisition/sale of minority interests.




September 12, 2009          Corporate Restructuring | Session 1   4
Asset Approach: Premises of Value
           • Sale as a going concern:
                 – Value-in-use
                     • Fair market value of assets and liabilities
           • Sale on a liquidation premise:
                 – Liquidation value (value-in-exchange)
                     • Orderly liquidation.
                     • Forced liquidation
           • Treatment of non-recurring/ non-operating assets and
             liabilities in case of valuation of controlling/ minority interest.


September 12, 2009                   Corporate Restructuring | Session 1           5
Income Approach
           • It is more often used than market/asset
             approaches.
           • It is a preferred approach for closely held (and
             also widely held) knowledge based companies.
           • It is also used in case of service industries.
           • Of course, it suffers from accounting
             distortions. Hence caution is advised.




September 12, 2009           Corporate Restructuring | Session 1   6
Income Approach: Methods

           • Single-period Capitalization Method:
                 – Valuation is based on the net income of one
                   year only and hence it can produce reliable
                   value only if the income chosen is
                   representative of the company’s anticipated
                   long-term future performance.
           • Multi-period Discounting Method:
                 – Discussed under DCF method.


September 12, 2009             Corporate Restructuring | Session 1   7
DCF Method: Certain Issues
           • Forecast Variables
           • Forecast Horizon:
                 – Period should be long enough to portray all anticipated
                   variations in the entity’s cash flows and until a stabilized
                   cash flow is achieved.
           • Continuing Value
           • Cost of Capital
                 – Debt cost
                 – Equity cost
                 – Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)



September 12, 2009                   Corporate Restructuring | Session 1          8
Cost of Capital
           • Cost of Debt:
                 – Direct Approach.
                 – Weighted Average Method.


           • Cost of Equity: CAPM
                 – What is the risk-free rate?
                     • Logic of using a long-term rate.
                 – What is your equity beta?
                 – How much is the equity risk premium (ERP)?




September 12, 2009                     Corporate Restructuring | Session 1   9
Cost of Equity
           • CAPM:
                 –         Re=Rf +β(ERP)
           • Modified CAPM (used for closely held targets)
                 –        Re=Rf +β(ERP)+SCP+SCRP
                     • Where SCP=Small company premium and SCRP=Specific
                       company risk premium (unsystematic risk- also known as ‘α’).
           • Buildup Method (used for closely held targets)
                 –       Re=Rf +ERP+SCP+SCRP
                     • The size of SCRP is usually smaller when used in MCAPM than when used
                       in buildup method.



September 12, 2009                      Corporate Restructuring | Session 1                    10
Risk Free Rate
                                  10 Year Govt. of India Bond Yield
            10.00



             9.00



             8.00



             7.00



             6.00



             5.00



             4.00
                Nov-04   Jul-05   Mar-06        Nov-06       Jul-07       Mar-08   Nov-08   Jul-09



September 12, 2009                         Corporate Restructuring | Session 1                       11
Beta


          Company     Index     99-00    00-01      01-02      02-03    03-04   5-yearly
          WIPRO       NIFTY     0.98      2.34       1.96        2.05   1.33      1.58
                      CNX-500   1.39      2.03       2.12        1.64   1.19      1.61
          RIL         NIFTY     1.10      0.91       1.21        1.14   1.05      1.06
                      CNX-500   0.80      0.64       1.03        1.10   0.96      0.85
          ITC         NIFTY     1.15      0.60       0.75        0.37   0.67      0.79
                      CNX-500   0.84      0.47       0.60        0.40   0.60      0.63
          BERGER      NIFTY     0.38      0.16       0.17        0.38   0.65      0.38
                      CNX-500   0.35      0.10       0.14        0.43   0.65      0.34
          HEROHONDA   NIFTY     0.56      -1.05      0.90        0.60   0.86      0.34
                      CNX-500   0.43      -0.52      0.82        0.72   0.80      0.34




September 12, 2009              Corporate Restructuring | Session 1                        12
ERP
          Long-term Risk Premium                                        SENSEX       BSE 100
                       Year      SENSEX      BSE 100       Risk free        ERP        ERP

                      1990-91     47.74        38.07         12.30          35.44      25.77
                      1991-92    137.87       127.35         13.36          124.51    113.99
                      1992-93    -55.11       -60.54         13.23          -68.34     -73.77
                      1993-94     54.48        61.20         13.38          41.10      47.82
                      1994-95    -13.96       -12.05         15.39          -29.35     -27.44
                      1995-96      5.20        -2.13         15.67          -10.47     -17.80
                      1996-97      3.49        -1.32         14.01          -10.52     -15.33
                      1997-98     17.10        17.03         12.27           4.83      4.76
                      1998-99      0.51         1.67         12.03          -11.52     -10.36
                     1999-2000    33.84        95.02         11.30          22.54      83.72
          10-yearly average                                                 9.82       13.14
September 12, 2009                    Corporate Restructuring | Session 1                       13
Specific Company Risk Premium
           • Should reflect the analysis of the competitive
             conditions in which the company operates. Some
             common company-specific risk factors:
                 – Lack of access to capital
                 – Ownership structure and stock transfer restrictions.
                 – Company’s market share and the market structure of the
                   industry
                 – Depth and breadth of the management
                 – Heavy reliance on individuals with key knowledge, skills or
                   contracts.




September 12, 2009                  Corporate Restructuring | Session 1          14
Control Premium and Illiquidity Discount
           • Such premium or discount should be applied in
             adjusting cash flows rather than in the discount
             factor.
           • If the target is a closely held company in which a
             controlling interest is being acquired, do not
             automatically assume that a control premium and a
             discount for lack of marketability must be applied to
             each value determined for the company.
           • The correct methodology is to identify the nature of
             the value initially computed by each appraisal
             method.

September 12, 2009             Corporate Restructuring | Session 1   15
Valuation: Concluding Remarks

           • Valuation exercise involves more
             judgments than precise facts.
           • The success of a valuation exercise
             depends on how scientific were you in
             your intuitive judgments.
           • Hence, valuation is an artistic science.



September 12, 2009         Corporate Restructuring | Session 1   16

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Crest Sep12 Sesssion 3

  • 1. Business Valuation Session 3 Abhimanyu August 30, 2009
  • 2. Value and Price • Value of a particular business or asset may be different for different parties depending upon strategic intent, synergies or for other reasons. • Value must be clearly distinguished from price and businesses may justifiably undertake to consummate a transaction at a price which does not fall within an assessed fair value range. • Given the valuations or valuation range / band suggested by valuers, the prerogative to decide upon a specific price is finally with the management and the Board of Directors of the Company. • The valuation is only a tool to aid management in decision- making. • The valuation is also time dependent. September 12, 2009 Corporate Restructuring | Session 1 2
  • 3. Valuation Methods • Asset Approach – Book Value, Adjusted Book Value, and Liquidation Value • Income Approach – Capitalization of Earnings, Capitalization of Excess Earnings, and Discounted Future Earnings/Cash Flows, Discounted Future EVAs. • Market Approach – Current Market Prices, Historical Market Prices, Price to Earnings, Price to Revenue, Price to Book Value, Price to Enterprise Value • Comparable Transactions/Relative Valuations – Comparable International and Domestic Transactions. • Sum-of-parts Method • Real Options Value September 12, 2009 Corporate Restructuring | Session 1 3
  • 4. Asset Approach • May be important in capital intensive industries or in acquisitions where valuable non-operating assets can be stripped after the purchase of the company to recover part of acquisition cost. • Where there are no (or very little) intangibles. • This approach is inappropriate in case of acquisition/sale of minority interests. September 12, 2009 Corporate Restructuring | Session 1 4
  • 5. Asset Approach: Premises of Value • Sale as a going concern: – Value-in-use • Fair market value of assets and liabilities • Sale on a liquidation premise: – Liquidation value (value-in-exchange) • Orderly liquidation. • Forced liquidation • Treatment of non-recurring/ non-operating assets and liabilities in case of valuation of controlling/ minority interest. September 12, 2009 Corporate Restructuring | Session 1 5
  • 6. Income Approach • It is more often used than market/asset approaches. • It is a preferred approach for closely held (and also widely held) knowledge based companies. • It is also used in case of service industries. • Of course, it suffers from accounting distortions. Hence caution is advised. September 12, 2009 Corporate Restructuring | Session 1 6
  • 7. Income Approach: Methods • Single-period Capitalization Method: – Valuation is based on the net income of one year only and hence it can produce reliable value only if the income chosen is representative of the company’s anticipated long-term future performance. • Multi-period Discounting Method: – Discussed under DCF method. September 12, 2009 Corporate Restructuring | Session 1 7
  • 8. DCF Method: Certain Issues • Forecast Variables • Forecast Horizon: – Period should be long enough to portray all anticipated variations in the entity’s cash flows and until a stabilized cash flow is achieved. • Continuing Value • Cost of Capital – Debt cost – Equity cost – Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) September 12, 2009 Corporate Restructuring | Session 1 8
  • 9. Cost of Capital • Cost of Debt: – Direct Approach. – Weighted Average Method. • Cost of Equity: CAPM – What is the risk-free rate? • Logic of using a long-term rate. – What is your equity beta? – How much is the equity risk premium (ERP)? September 12, 2009 Corporate Restructuring | Session 1 9
  • 10. Cost of Equity • CAPM: – Re=Rf +β(ERP) • Modified CAPM (used for closely held targets) – Re=Rf +β(ERP)+SCP+SCRP • Where SCP=Small company premium and SCRP=Specific company risk premium (unsystematic risk- also known as ‘α’). • Buildup Method (used for closely held targets) – Re=Rf +ERP+SCP+SCRP • The size of SCRP is usually smaller when used in MCAPM than when used in buildup method. September 12, 2009 Corporate Restructuring | Session 1 10
  • 11. Risk Free Rate 10 Year Govt. of India Bond Yield 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 Nov-04 Jul-05 Mar-06 Nov-06 Jul-07 Mar-08 Nov-08 Jul-09 September 12, 2009 Corporate Restructuring | Session 1 11
  • 12. Beta Company Index 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 5-yearly WIPRO NIFTY 0.98 2.34 1.96 2.05 1.33 1.58 CNX-500 1.39 2.03 2.12 1.64 1.19 1.61 RIL NIFTY 1.10 0.91 1.21 1.14 1.05 1.06 CNX-500 0.80 0.64 1.03 1.10 0.96 0.85 ITC NIFTY 1.15 0.60 0.75 0.37 0.67 0.79 CNX-500 0.84 0.47 0.60 0.40 0.60 0.63 BERGER NIFTY 0.38 0.16 0.17 0.38 0.65 0.38 CNX-500 0.35 0.10 0.14 0.43 0.65 0.34 HEROHONDA NIFTY 0.56 -1.05 0.90 0.60 0.86 0.34 CNX-500 0.43 -0.52 0.82 0.72 0.80 0.34 September 12, 2009 Corporate Restructuring | Session 1 12
  • 13. ERP Long-term Risk Premium SENSEX BSE 100 Year SENSEX BSE 100 Risk free ERP ERP 1990-91 47.74 38.07 12.30 35.44 25.77 1991-92 137.87 127.35 13.36 124.51 113.99 1992-93 -55.11 -60.54 13.23 -68.34 -73.77 1993-94 54.48 61.20 13.38 41.10 47.82 1994-95 -13.96 -12.05 15.39 -29.35 -27.44 1995-96 5.20 -2.13 15.67 -10.47 -17.80 1996-97 3.49 -1.32 14.01 -10.52 -15.33 1997-98 17.10 17.03 12.27 4.83 4.76 1998-99 0.51 1.67 12.03 -11.52 -10.36 1999-2000 33.84 95.02 11.30 22.54 83.72 10-yearly average 9.82 13.14 September 12, 2009 Corporate Restructuring | Session 1 13
  • 14. Specific Company Risk Premium • Should reflect the analysis of the competitive conditions in which the company operates. Some common company-specific risk factors: – Lack of access to capital – Ownership structure and stock transfer restrictions. – Company’s market share and the market structure of the industry – Depth and breadth of the management – Heavy reliance on individuals with key knowledge, skills or contracts. September 12, 2009 Corporate Restructuring | Session 1 14
  • 15. Control Premium and Illiquidity Discount • Such premium or discount should be applied in adjusting cash flows rather than in the discount factor. • If the target is a closely held company in which a controlling interest is being acquired, do not automatically assume that a control premium and a discount for lack of marketability must be applied to each value determined for the company. • The correct methodology is to identify the nature of the value initially computed by each appraisal method. September 12, 2009 Corporate Restructuring | Session 1 15
  • 16. Valuation: Concluding Remarks • Valuation exercise involves more judgments than precise facts. • The success of a valuation exercise depends on how scientific were you in your intuitive judgments. • Hence, valuation is an artistic science. September 12, 2009 Corporate Restructuring | Session 1 16