The document describes a commercial property value forecast model developed by an economics center. The model produces 10-year projections of total tax increment financing (TIF) revenue, property values, and estimated TIF values and revenues for different taxing districts based on historical data. The user can input current year data and adjustment factors to customize the forecasts for their community.

1. An Introduction t the
A I t d ti to th
Economics Center’s Commercial
co o cs Ce te s Co e ca
Property Value Forecast Model
Economics Center
E i C t
University of Cincinnati

2. What is Innovative about
Our Model?
Developed specifically for your community, based on
local data (Underlying model can be updated on a 3- year cycle)
Requires minimal User Input
User can “force” a current year estimate before updated
property value data are available
– Forced estimate carries through 10 year projections
10-year
User may also adjust the model to account for out-of-trend
changes prior to updating of underlying model
Produce forecasts for various conditions

3. How Our Model Works

4. Model Input
Current Year 2011
Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2
Effective Millage 60 52
Proportion TIF 85.00% 75.00%
Adjustment Factor 0.12 0.00
Actual Residential Value Actual Commercial (TIF total) Value
Reporting Year Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2 Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2
2006 $ 72,966,980 $ 296,316,294 $ 95,630,884 $ 64,307,664
2007 $ 75,301,923 $ 311,132,108 $ 101,368,738 $ 70,738,431
2008 $ 77,711,585
77 711 585 $ 326,688,714
326 688 714 $ 107 450 862
107,450,862 $ 77,812,274
77 812 274
2009 $ 80,198,356 $ 343,023,150 $ 113,897,914 $ 85,593,501
2010 ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE

5. Model Input
Current Year 2011
Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2
Effective Millage 60 52
Proportion TIF 85.00% 75.00%
Adjustment Factor 0.12 0.00
Actual R id ti l V l
A t l Residential Value Actual Commercial (TIF t t l) V l
A t lC i l total) Value
Reporting Year Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2 Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2
2006 $ 72,966,980 $ 296,316,294 $ 95,630,884 $ 64,307,664
2007 $ 75,301,923 $ 311,132,108 $ 101,368,738 $ 70,738,431
2008 $ 77,711,585 $ 326,688,714 $ 107,450,862 $ 77,812,274
2009 $ 80,198,356 $ 343,023,150 $ 113,897,914 $ 85,593,501
2010 ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE

6. Model Input
p
Current Year 2011
Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2
Effective Millage 60 52
Proportion TIF 85.00% 75.00%
Adjustment Factor
dj 0.12 0.00
Actual Residential Value Actual Commercial (TIF total) Value
Reporting Year Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2 Taxing District 1 Taxing District 2
2006 $ 72,966,980 $ 296,316,294 $ 95,630,884 $ 64,307,664
2007 $ 75,301,923 $ 311,132,108 $ 101,368,738 $ 70,738,431
2008 $ 77,711,585 $ 326,688,714 $ 107,450,862 $ 77,812,274
2009 $ 80,198,356 $ 343,023,150 $ 113,897,914 $ 85,593,501
2010 ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE ENTER VALUE

7. What does Our Model do?

8. Our Model Output Example
p p
Reporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value
p y $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
High Estimate
Hi h E ti t
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642

9. Our Model Output Example
Reporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value
p y $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
High Estimate
Hi h E ti t
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642

10. Our Model Output Example
Reporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value
p y $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
High Estimate
Hi h E ti t
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642

11. Our Model Output Example
Reporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value
p y $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
High Estimate
Hi h E ti t
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642

12. Our Model Output Example
Reporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value
p y $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
High Estimate
Hi h E ti t
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642

13. Our Model Output Example
Reporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value
p y $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
High Estimate
Hi h E ti t
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642

14. Our Model Output Example
Reporting Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Estimate Forecast
Total TIF Revenue
Low Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,794,064 $ 3,891,348 $ 4,049,886 $ 4,234,136
High Estimate $ 3,201,429 $ 3,934,969 $ 4,035,866 $ 4,199,757 $ 4,389,678
Taxing District 1
Low estimate
Total Property Value
p y $ 113,897,914 $137,561,308 $141,088,521 $147,120,894 $154,424,963
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $116,927,112 $119,925,243 $125,052,760 $131,261,218
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,455,469 $ 2,518,430 $ 2,626,108 $ 2,756,486
High Estimate
Hi h E ti t
Total Property Value $ 113,897,914 $152,041,446 $155,939,944 $162,607,304 $170,680,222
Estimated TIF Value $ 96,813,226 $129,235,229 $132,548,953 $138,216,209 $145,078,189
Estimated TIF Revenue $ 2,033,078 $ 2,713,940 $ 2,783,528 $ 2,902,540 $ 3,046,642

15. Adjustment Factor Illustration
j
TIF Actual
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

16. Adjustment Factor Illustration
TIF Actual
TIF Predicted1 (base)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

17. Adjustment Factor Illustration
TIF Actual
TIF Predicted1 (base)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

18. Adjustment Factor Illustration
TIF Actual
TIF Predicted1 (base)
TIF Predicted2 (adj)
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

19. Additional Information
Full Product includes:
Customized forecast model and
documentation
Presentations to your staff and community
y y
leaders to explain the model and train to use
Support with updating forecast input

20. Flexible Pricing
Depends on:
The number of taxing districts, TIF districts
Number of presentations to your community
leader and stakeholders
Updates to underlying model are priced separately
U d d l i d l i d l

21. Thank you
Jennifer Pitzer
f
Research Associate
jennifer.pitzer@uc.edu
j p
(513)556-2491
www.economicsresearch.org
Client Testimonial:
“The TIF Model is intuitive, easy and flexible for reporting to the Township
Trustees to help them understand the resources that Deerfield Township
may hhave available. The Trustees really appreciate h i a t l th t can
il bl Th T t ll i t having tool that
inform planning for the future, beyond the upcoming year.”
- John Wahle, Fiscal Officer, Deerfield Township