This is the second part of trend research and management training course that is available at: http://semiosearch.lt/training/ This presentation covers the essential requirements for a trend and outlines trend analysis framework.

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PART 2 of TREND TRAINING COURSE
WHAT IS A TREND?
TREND ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK

2. CONTENTS
The main purpose of this lesson is to
introduce the trend analysis framework. We
will start with the main parts of the
framework and go through the different
types of trends.
-TREND ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK
-INNOVATION LANDSCAPE
-MACRO-DIMENSIONS
-VALUES AND BEHAVIORS
-DIFFERENT TYPES OF TRENDS
-FINAL REMARKS
THIS LESSON
In the next lessons we will further explore how
each part and their combination work.
NEXT LESSON

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4. TREND ANALYSIS
FRAMEWORK

5. identifying a trend is firstly and
most importantly identifying
change
TREND AS CHANGE

6. a trend is not an isolated
phenomenon, it is a
combination of changes
OUR MAIN THESIS

7. INNOVATION
LANDSCAPE
MACRO-
DIMENSIONS
FUNDAMENTAL
LEVEL
Innovation landscape encompasses
business and organizational
innovations that can appear in the
form of start-ups, new features,
models of operations or value
creation
the dimensions that have influence
on our everyday lives: culture,
lifestyle, consumption,
environment, governance,
organization, technology,
community, demographics or
education
behaviors and needsbeliefs and values
the underlying ideological system/s
where every phenomenon is
marked by evaluation
the expression of the underlying
ideological system – through
stories, conversations, actions,
choices and needs

8. INNOVATION
LANDSCAPE

9. INNOVATION
LANDSCAPE
Innovation landscape is where we look at businesses and
organizations looking for emergent innovations, start-ups, new
features and new modes of delivery or value creation

10. INNOVATION
LANDSCAPE
it is important to expand the focus into surrounding industries and
look for innovations that are based on the same principles or related
in some way to what we identify in our starting industry/area
SCOPE

11. MACRO-DIMENSIONS

12. MACRO-DIMENSIONS
macro-dimensions describe different areas that
have influence on our lives
culture lifestyle consumption environment
governance organizations technology
community demographics education

13. culture lifestyle consumption environment
governance organizations technology
community demographics education
we are looking at shifts, events and changes in
any of the macro-dimensions or any other life-
affecting spheres that come in between (i. e.
scarcity of resources)
WHAT TO LOOK FOR?

14. VALUES AND BEHAVIORS

15. behaviors and needsbeliefs and values
FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL
This is called the FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL for a reason. It
means that the changes that happen on this level are
tectonic and can be observed over longer periods of time
this describes the ideological system with all
possible positions or states and evaluations of
these positions (positive, neutral, negative,
unmarked) that we base our actions upon
behaviors and needs is already a specific
expression of the ideological system – it’s how
we choose to act, evaluate our actions, expect
and demand from others and our environment
A SYSTEM AN EXPRESSION

16. behaviors and needsbeliefs and values
FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL
A SYSTEM AN EXPRESSION
we can not witness beliefs and values directly – we first need to
observe how people act, talk, express their opinions, choose or
ignore things. From this we can reconstruct the underlying value
system.

17. 1. BELIEFS
AND VALUES
The ideological system
that underlies all
changes and evaluation
or reception of change.
2. BEHAVIORS
AND NEEDS
Specific expressions of our
ideological system
through conversations,
interactions, choices and
needs
3. MACRO
DIMENSIONS
Dimensions that have
influence on our everyday
lives and that constitute our
living environment.
THE ANATOMY OF A TREND
4. INNOVATION
LANDSCAPE
Developments within
organizational and business
sectors that reveal the
changing consumer needs
to specificfrom abstract

18. a trend is a systemic change
that manifests itself on the four
levels of the trend framework
OUR WORKING DEFINITION OF A TREND

19. MEGA-TRENDS
FAD
trends can be understood as a specific hierarchy
where the most general and pervasive trends are
tagged as macro-trends and the most localized and
disconnected ones are classified as fads
DIFFERENT TYPES
TREND TREND TREND
FAD
OF TRENDS

20. MEGA-TRENDS
FAD
TREND TREND TREND
FAD
abstract and
general
specific and
localized
too broad to be
applicable
too short-lived and
specific to be applied
higher certainty
lower certainty

21. MEGA-TREND

22. A MEGA-TREND
An over-arching trend that manifests
itself across at least several industries and
is related to changes in at least several
macro-dimensions. A mega-trend marks a
shift in values and beliefs.

23. A MEGA-TREND
NATURAL LIVING
An over-arching trend that manifests
itself across at least several industries and
is related to changes in at least several
macro-dimensions. A mega-trend marks a
shift in values and beliefs.
and also was related to changes in
consumption habits,
communication and branding,
sourcing and production practices
the quest for natural living
has resulted in changes
and innovations across a
number of industries

24. TREND

25. A TREND
is a change that is reflected in
innovations, macro-dimensions and that
expresses our values and beliefs

26. A TREND
is a change that is reflected in
innovations, macro-dimensions and that
expresses our values and beliefs
INNOVATIONS
trend manifests itself through industry
innovations – the stronger the trend, the more
innovations will proliferate across different and
sometimes unrelated industries

27. A TREND
is a change that is reflected in
innovations, macro-dimensions and that
expresses our values and beliefs
INNOVATIONS
MACRO-DIMENSIONS
trends resonate through shifts and changes in
our environments, be it communities,
organizations or consumption patterns

28. A TREND
is a change that is reflected in
innovations, macro-dimensions and that
expresses our values and beliefs
INNOVATIONS
MACRO-DIMENSIONS
VALUES, BELIEFS
trends resonate with values, beliefs – this
is the deepest level that allows the trend
to rise to prominence

29. A TREND AND A
MEGA-TREND
a trend describes changes within a
specified space in our lives, a combination
of trends can constitute a mega-trend
A TREND
a mega-trend is an abstract concept
that explains changes happening in
multiple dimensions
A MEGA-TREND

30. A TREND AND A
MEGA-TREND
identifying a mega-trend is important as it allows
to define the relationships between separate
trends, but is not as actionable and specific as a
specific trend
ACTIONABLE

31. AUTHENTICITY
MOVEMENT
could be considered a mega-trend as it can
be manifested across different industries and
result in changes of our relationship with
business practices, consumption and
environment
AN EXAMPLE

32. AUTHENTICITY
MOVEMENT
could be considered a mega-trend as it can
be manifested across different industries and
result in changes of our relationship with
business practices, consumption and
environment
CRAFT CULTURE
it just a specific trend that makes a part of
the authenticity movement
AN EXAMPLE

33. A FAD

34. -A FAD-
can be one of the following:
SHORT-LIVED
TREND
A short-lived trend that does not connect to the
fundamental level, i. e. values, beliefs and needs,
and that does not have a strong connection to
the changes in the macro-dimensions of our lives
EXPRESSION
OF A TREND
A particular expression of a trend within a
specific field that does not hold for long and
loses its momentum. Usually tied just to a
particular industry.

35. NOT EVERYTHING
THAT FAILS IS A
FAD
specific trends fail all the time – it doesn’t mean that
they are something to be ignored. Your task is to
identify whether the trend that failed connects to
something bigger or not. If it does, you will likely see
it resurface.

36. WHY SHOULD WE USE THE FRAMEWORK?
ANALYSIS TOOL
EVALUATION TOOL
The trend framework serves a couple of purposes:

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TREND TRAINING COURSE
WHAT IS A TREND?
- END OF PART 2 -