Understanding the 2022 US midterm elections

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Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies (ICAS) at TUJ

November 17, 2022 8 November 2022 was the last day of voting for the US midterm elections. These elections reflected the mood of American voters and give us some idea of the future course of American policy and of the political and ideological balance of power in the United States. They will also affect the ability of the Biden Administration to pursue its agenda.

Präsentationen & Vorträge

2022 Midterm Elections Overview
Paul Sracic
Professor of Politics and International Relations
Youngstown State University

Why does the “Party in
Power” do so poorly in
House Midterm Elections?
• Surge and Decline
• Coattails
• Presidential
Penalty/Referendum
Explanations

Surge and Decline
“weak partisans”
stay home
during Midterms

Missing Voters in Midterm
Voting Eligible Population (VEP): 239,247,182
Roughly 48 million voters (20%) missing from 2020
-Larger than population of California
-3.5X’s the population of Tokyo
[Note: Roughly 10 million (4%) voters missing from 2018]

Voters by Party Affiliation 2022 (2020)
Democrats: 33% (37%)
Republicans: 36% (36%)
Independents: 31% (26%)

Coattails
Presidential party
“overperforms” in
prior election due to
“presidential coattails”

2020 U.S. House of Representatives Election
Democrats Republicans
2020 House Elections

Seats gained by Out-of-Power Party gain
where party began with more than 210
seats
2022: (?)
2014: +13
2002: -8
1998: -5
1990: +8
1986: +5
1982: +26

Presidential Penalty/Referendum
“Negative Voting”
Presidential disapproval
motivates voters more
than approval.
-Some voters want to
“balance” presidential
power.
Voters are evaluating
economic conditions and
whether they approve of
the president. This
nationalizes elections.

Washington CD 3 [R+5]
Incumbent, Jaime Herrera Beutler
- Republican

In 2018 midterms, 77 percent of Asian-Americans had voted for House Democratic candidates
Asian American Vote

2024
• Senate
• Bad “map” for Democrats in the Senate
• 23/33 seats held by Democrats
• Assuming 51D-49R in 2022
• Democrats start with 28 Seats
• Republicans start with 39 Seats

2024 Presidential Candidates?
Republicans
• Trump
• DeSantis
• Pence
• Pompeo
• Scott
• Haley
• Hogan
Democrats
• Biden
• Harris
• Buttigieg
• Newsom
• Warren
• Klobuchar

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Understanding the 2022 US midterm elections

1. 2022 Midterm Elections Overview Paul Sracic Professor of Politics and International Relations Youngstown State University

4. Why does the “Party in Power” do so poorly in House Midterm Elections? • Surge and Decline • Coattails • Presidential Penalty/Referendum Explanations

5. Surge and Decline “weak partisans” stay home during Midterms

7. Missing Voters in Midterm Voting Eligible Population (VEP): 239,247,182 Roughly 48 million voters (20%) missing from 2020 -Larger than population of California -3.5X’s the population of Tokyo [Note: Roughly 10 million (4%) voters missing from 2018]

8. Voters by Party Affiliation 2022 (2020) Democrats: 33% (37%) Republicans: 36% (36%) Independents: 31% (26%)

10. Coattails Presidential party “overperforms” in prior election due to “presidential coattails”

11. 2020 U.S. House of Representatives Election Democrats Republicans 2020 House Elections

12. Seats gained by Out-of-Power Party gain where party began with more than 210 seats 2022: (?) 2014: +13 2002: -8 1998: -5 1990: +8 1986: +5 1982: +26

13. Presidential Penalty/Referendum “Negative Voting” Presidential disapproval motivates voters more than approval. -Some voters want to “balance” presidential power. Voters are evaluating economic conditions and whether they approve of the president. This nationalizes elections.

14. Presidential Approval

15.

16.

17. • Referendum on whose performance?

18. Candidate Quality

19. Washington CD 3 [R+5] Incumbent, Jaime Herrera Beutler - Republican

20. Pennsylvania and Ohio

21. 020 versus 2022

22. 020 versus 2022

23. 020 versus 2022

24. OHIO 2012 President 2022 Senate

25. Ohio 2020 versus 2022

26. Ohio 2020 versus 2022

27. Ohio 2020 versus 2022

28. Ohio 2020 versus 2022

29. In 2018 midterms, 77 percent of Asian-Americans had voted for House Democratic candidates Asian American Vote

30. 2024 • Senate • Bad “map” for Democrats in the Senate • 23/33 seats held by Democrats • Assuming 51D-49R in 2022 • Democrats start with 28 Seats • Republicans start with 39 Seats

31. 2024 Presidential Candidates? Republicans • Trump • DeSantis • Pence • Pompeo • Scott • Haley • Hogan Democrats • Biden • Harris • Buttigieg • Newsom • Warren • Klobuchar

32. 2024 Map?

33. 2024 Map?

34. 2022 Midterm Elections Overview Paul Sracic Professor of Politics and International Relations Youngstown State University

Understanding the 2022 US midterm elections

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