This document discusses China's growing military capabilities and ambitions in the South China Sea and beyond. It notes China's increasing navy, including more advanced submarines, ships, and aircraft carriers between 2000-2020. It also describes China's "Joint Anti-Air Raid Campaign" and "Joint Fire Strike Campaign" designed to attack adversary aircraft carriers and bases. The document warns of China's expanding arsenal of conventional missiles that can target ships and bases throughout the region. It analyzes China's air defense network and growing ability to challenge air superiority. Overall, the document examines China's military modernization and implications for regional security.

1. Short, Sharp War
A Threat Baseline
James Fanell
Captain, U.S. Navy (Retired)
15 December, 2016

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We must…continue to work hard to
actualize the Chinese dream of the
great rejuvenation of the Chinese
nation.”
– PRC President Xi Jinping, March
2013
“We love peace…but that doesn’t
mean giving up our rights, especially
those involving the nation’s Core
interests” – PRC President Xi, Aug
2013
PRC President Xi Jinping – Chairman of Central Maritime Rights Protection Leading
Small Group ( ),
PRC Path to Rejuvenation…
Maritime Sovereignty

5. Picture from a PLA Navy
ship during a port call in
Sydney, Australia in 2012

6. Korea Strait
Kalimantan Strait
Malacca Strait
Guam
Taiwan Strait
Bashi Strait
Miyako Strait
Makassar Strait
Picture from a PLA Navy
ship during a port call in
Sydney, Australia in 2012

7. PLAN NOB in 2000:
66x SSBN/SSN/SS
0x CV
58x DDG/DD/FF
0x Corvettes
60x Amphibs
100x Missiile PCs
Source: USCC Aug. 2013
2000
Advanced Attack
Submarines
Advanced Fighter/ Strike
Aircraft
Short Range
Ballistic Missiles
Advanced ASCM Capable
Surface Combatants (DDG/DD/FF)
= 25 Fighters = 2000
= 3 Submarines
= 5 Surface Vessels 1.6 per year DDG/DD/FFs (2000-2004)
= 25 Ballistic Missiles - Source: CRS 2014
= 1 Aircraft Carrier

8. 2015
Advanced Fighter/ Strike
Aircra6
Short Range
Ballis<c Missiles
Advanced A>ack
Submarines
Advanced ASCM Capable
Surface Combatants (DDG/DD/FF)
* 2014 & 2105 Budget Increased >10%/year
= 25 Fighters = 2000
= = 3 Submarines = 2015
= 5 Surface Vessels 4.2 per year DDG/DD/FFs (2010-2014)
= 25 Ballis<c Missiles - Source: CRS 2014
= 1 Aircra6 Carrier
Aircra6 Carrier
PLAN NOB in 2015:
75x SSBN/SSN/SS
1x CV
88x DDG/DD/FFG
25x Corvettes
55x Amphibs
85x Missiile PCs
Source: USCC Aug. 2013

9. 2020
Advanced Fighter/ Strike
Aircraft
Short Range
Ballistic Missiles
Advanced Attack
Submarines
Advanced ASCM Capable
Surface Combatants (DDG/FF(L))
PRC in 2020:
122x DD(G)/FF(L)
1382x Fighter A/C
78x SSN/SS/SSBN
1,500x SRBM
2x CV
= 25 Fighters = 1999
= 3 Submarines = 2014
= 5 Surface Vessels = 2020
= 25 Ballistic Missiles
= 1 Aircraft Carrier
Aircraft Carriers
Relative Combat Power & Presence
1999 2005 20152010 2020
?

10. Changing of the Guard…
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…Meaner and Leaner.

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12. Source: “War on the Rocks”, Tom
Shugart, 21SEP16

13. Source: “War on the Rocks”, Tom
Shugart, 21SEP16

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Cuarteron
Reef,
November 11,
2016

15. Source: CSIS/AMTI

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Source: Professor Goldstein,
“The National Interest” and China
Maritime Studies Institute

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18. Regional Maritime Law Enforcement
Comparison
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21. U.S. SCS OPS & PRC REACTIONS
USS Lassen (Oct. 2015) – FONOP Subi Reef
PLA Navy shadows
Stennis Carrier Strike Group (Mar. 2016) – CSG Ops SCS
PLA Navy shadows
USS Curtis Wilbur (Jan. 2016) – FONOPS Triton Island
PLA Navy shadows
USS William P. Lawrence (May 2016) – FONOPs Fiery Cross
PLA aircraft reacts
Stennis/Reagan CSGs (Jun/Jul 2016) – Dual CSG Ops SCS
PLA Navy shadows
USS Decatur (Oct. 2016) – FONOPS Triton Island
PLA Navy shadows
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Since October 2015, the PRC has shadowed every U.S. Navy
warship that enters the South China Sea

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The Science of Campaigns
(2006)

23. Joint Anti-Air Raid Campaign (JARC) &
Joint Fire Strike Campaign (JFSC)
• JARC
– Integrated air defense covering the mainland; attacks on
adversary airbases and aircraft carriers;
– Extend air defenses beyond China’s borders through employment
of fighters, antiaircraft systems, ship-borne surface-to-air missiles
(SAM), and airborne early warning and command assets
• JFSC
– Coordinates and synchronizes anti-ship ballistic and cruise
missiles, land-attack cruise missiles, air strikes with precision-
guided munitions, and counter-C4ISR strikes with specialized
weapons.
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24. Growing Fighter Gap
between China and Japan
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September 2016

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25 November 2016

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10 December 2016

33. Joint Anti-Air Raid Campaign (JARC) &
Joint Fire Strike Campaign (JFSC)
• JARC
– Integrated air defense covering the mainland; attacks on
adversary airbases and aircraft carriers;
– Extend air defenses beyond China’s borders through employment
of fighters, antiaircraft systems, ship-borne surface-to-air missiles
(SAM), and airborne early warning and command assets
• JFSC
– Coordinates and synchronizes anti-ship ballistic and cruise
missiles, land-attack cruise missiles, air strikes with precision-
guided munitions, and counter-C4ISR strikes with specialized
weapons.
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34. Chinese Conventionally Armed Theater
Ballistic and Cruise Missiles
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35. China Strategic Rocket Forces
Missile Threats, 1996-2017
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The Expanding Range of Chinese
Conventional Missiles

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44. 28 November 2016 44
Joint Fire Strike Exercise

45. Case Study:
Kadena Air Base
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47. SAM and Defensive Counter-Air Coverage
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49. Numbers of PLA Air Defense Surface
Combatants by SAM Range, 1990-2014
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51. Joint Command and Control
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55. 4 December 2016 55
China’s New Strategic Bomber: H-20

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Complex, Large-Scale, 360-Degree Projected Air Threat Facing Japan by 2024

58. Achieve National Rejuvenation
Rise to World
Stage
Economic
Reform &
Opening Up
2040
1949
1978
1989
2008
2020
2030
Tiananmen
Massacre
20 yrs
20 yrs
Decade of Concern
Period of Calm
We cannot wait forever for a political solution to
Taiwan. – PRC President Xi Jinping, October 2013,
at APEC Forum
Decade of Concern
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59. Questions / Discussion
UNCLASSIFIED