Tetsunari Iida: Can Japan Achieve a Sustainable Future without Nuclear Energy? In the aftermath of the 3.11 Fukushima nuclear crisis, the long-term viability of the nuclear industry in Japan has been called into question, with a dynamic anti-nuclear social movement challenging the Japanese government's response to the crisis. While this movement initially enlisted tens of thousands of people, many of whom had not previously engaged in political activism, as time has passed, the anti-nuclear movement has failed to gain ground against the entrenched forces of conservative politics, even while anti-nuclear sentiment remains strong. A central moment in this process was the recent elections, which returned the Liberal Democratic party to power on a nationalist agenda that included plans to restart all of Japan's reactors, and even build new ones. In contrast to the back-to-the-future politics of the LDP, the anti-nuclear candidate Tetsunari Iida, who ran for governor of Yamaguchi Prefecture, has called for a fundamental rethinking of Japan's energy policy away from nuclear energy to renewable forms that are more environmentally friendly. Although Mr. Iida experienced a setback in the 2012 elections, losing to a conservative candidate who was backed by the LDP, his campaign raised a number of issues for consideration that had not been previously addressed, invigorating the anti-nuclear movement throughout Japan. For this presentation, Mr. Iida will discuss the political dysfunction that contributed to the nuclear crisis, and offer an alternate vision that has raised widespread support among a public alienated from mainstream politics, offering hope for a safer and more ecologically sustainable future.

1. Temple University
Tetsunari IIDA
Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies (ISEP)
tetsu@isep.or.jp
April. 5, 2013
Can Japan Achieve a Sustainable
Future without Nuclear Energy?

2. ©Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies
Policy
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Redefine values
around energy
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ISEP history and activities
• Founded 2000
• Policy and its realization
– Integrating 4 domains activities
- Sustainable energy policy
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– RE policy innovation
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Integrate all to
mobilize project
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3. 3 of The 3rd
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4. Tetsu IIDA@Salzburg August 31-September 4, 2009
Upside down of nuclear myth into nuclear reality
The earthquake hit Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power station (7.8 GWe) on
July 16th 2007 exposed opposite aspect of nuclear power
- from “climate solution” to “climate risk”
- from “cheap power” to “economical risk”
- from “supply security” to “supply risk”
- from “safety myth” to “unsafe reality”
07originalprofit
Fuel
CDM
Repair
400B yen
Economic risk Supply risk
Supplysecurity
Insecurity
Climate risk
CO2reduction
CO2iincrease
Unsafe reality
SafetyMyth
Unsafereality
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5. Tetsu IIDA@Salzburg August 31-September 4, 2009
5(photo) WSJ
Finally it happened ,
in spite of series of lessons, small incidents,

6. Tetsu IIDA@Salzburg August 31-September 4, 2009
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Same political culture,
Similar organizational failure
(photo) wiki commons

7. Tetsu IIDA@Salzburg August 31-September 4, 2009
Political structure of nuclear & climate issue
Macro
Meso
Sub-politics
Micro
Reality
Norm
Goal
Policy
Politics Knowledge
Result
Ritual politics
Goal
policy
Bureau-politics
Vested politics
Knowledge
Result
？
CoveragebyKnowledgecommunity
CoveragebyKnowledgecommunity
Desired Model Situation in Japan
？
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8. 8
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Nuclear capacity (GW)
エネルギー基本計画
40年廃炉(311前)
40年廃炉(311後)
2020全廃
2012全機停止
1% land, 20% earthquake, 10% nuke
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Lower dependency of nuclear

9. 2011 2020 2050
0
20
40
60
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100
Renewable
Nuclear
Coal, Oil
Gas
Saving
Energy Shift - the way forward
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10. The 4th
Revolution
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11. Tetsu IIDA@Salzburg August 31-September 4, 2009 出典 : IAEA, Inspiratia.com
Comparison of history v.s. reality
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Nuclear Renewable

12. Tetsu IIDA@Salzburg August 31-September 4, 2009
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Renewable Global Future Report
2013

13. Tetsu IIDA@Salzburg August 31-September 4, 2009
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Renewable Global Future Report
2013
100%＠2050
(ISEP)

14. The 4th Revolution
Economy & industrial revolution
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15. Tetsu IIDA@Rikkyo Univ. Sept. 18, 2010
Renewable into mainstream - basis of GND
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16. Tetsu IIDA@Rikkyo Univ. Sept. 18, 2010
- German success story with FIT policy
source：IEA PVPS (IEA-PVPS T1-17:2008)
Renewable into mainstream - Solar PV expansion
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17. Tetsu IIDA@Rikkyo Univ. Sept. 18, 2010
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In Germany
Nuclear
Renewable

18. Tetsu IIDA@Rikkyo Univ. Sept. 18, 2010
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In Germany
Spot price get cheaper
because of solar PV

19. The 4th Revolution
Distributed & network
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20. The 4th Revolution
Community power
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21. Tetsu IIDA@Rikkyo Univ. Sept. 18, 2010
More and more community power coming up with all over Japan
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22. 20th Century
(Mass production)
21st Century
(Creative Knowledge base )
Centralized Local distributed
Supply push Demand pull
Hierarchy Network
Fossil & nuclear
Renewable &
Energy efficiency
(Numerical)
Economic growth
Sufficiency, justice,
welfare 22
It’s time for historical change
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