Dr. Roger Cady - Sustainability Research Review: Enough
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Sustainability Research Review: Enough - Dr. Roger Cady, Sr. Technical Consultant, Global Sustainability Lead, Elanco, from the 2016 Global Roundtable for Sustainable Beef (GRSB), October 5 - 6, 2016, Banff, Alberta, Canada. More presentations at http://trufflemedia.com/agmedia/conference/2016-global-roundtable-sustainable-beef
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Dr. Roger Cady - Sustainability Research Review: Enough
- 2. GMAFCANON00190 …Changing the Context The Evolution…
- 3. GMAFCANON00190 POPULATION ONE HEALTH Protein Missing Ingredient Protein, Paleo, Atkins Carbs, sugar 1st World Diet Changing Realities: Increased Protein Demand 9.7 BILLION by 2050 60% INCREASE in animal protein 3.6 BILLION middle class Reality #1: 60% protein increase MIDDLE CLASS Innovation Choice Access
- 4. GMAFCANON00190 Projected Vs Actual Protein Demand 200 210 220 230 240 250 260 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 MMT(MilkbasedonSolidsEquivalent) Forecast Consumption (MMT) Realized Consumption (MMT) Reality Expected Sources: FAO, 2012, World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050, Tables 3.4 & 3.5, pp. 74-75 Reality #1: 60% protein increase Demand for bridge protein exceeding projections by about 7%. }
- 5. GMAFCANON00193 Comparative YOY Global Population and Land Based Animal Protein Production Growth Rates 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YOYGrowthRate Population Aggregate Animal Protein Production Protein Growth Rate Trend Sources: FAOSTAT, http://faostat3.fao.org/download/Q/QL/E, & U.S. Census Bureau International Database, http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php both accessed 13Oct15
- 6. GMAFCANON00193 2013 Global Land Based Animal Protein Sources Animal Protein Source 23% 22% 22% 15% 14% 3% 0% 1% Pork Poultry Milk Solids Eggs Beef Ovine Wild Game Other 5 Major Proteins 92% 100% 95% 88% 83% 88% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Chicken Eggs as % All Eggs Pig as % of Pork Cattle as % of Beef Chicken as % of Poultry Cattle Milk as % of All Milk Combined as % of All Sources Source: FAOSTAT, http://faostat3.fao.org/download/Q/QL/E, accessed 13Oct15
- 7. By 2050, we will need 43% more beef 28.7 million metric tonnes 31.6 million tons 66.7 million metric tonnes 73.5 million tons 95.2 million metric tonnes 104.9 million tons (millionmetrictonnesofbeef) 95.2 66.7 28.7 Knapp, J. Elanco Animal Health. 2014 Food Forward: Global Beef Story. Data on file.
- 8. GMAFCANON00190 ©2015, Elanco Animal Health, a division of Eli Lilly and Company Today’s Landscape Health and Nutrition Challenges 1 in 3 Growing Population 20% Lost to Disease Environmental Pressure Get the wrong nutrition Overusing natural resources 1.6 planets Increase in demand 60% 20% Lost to disease
- 9. Idle Animals Resources used to raise or maintain cattle and water buffalo are affected by the number of idle animals in the global herd. Idle animals are cattle or water buffalo that are not growing, not producing dairy, not pregnant and not being used for draft work. Farmers and ranchers may choose to maintain idle cattle for reasons beyond beef production, including breeding stock potential, cultural beliefs or socio-economic factors.
- 10. GMAFCANON00193 Annual Environmental Consequence of Adding One More Milking Cow • For survival nutrition (maintenance) of the cow, her heifer replacement and part of a bull required to breed her • Does not include the nutritional requirements for the milk production; that is a constant regardless of number of cows • Range due primarily to size of the cow • Summary – Feed: +10 to 12.5 MT – Land: +2.1 to 2.2 acres – Water for animal consumption: +233,000 to 423,000 gal • Equivalent to 0.40 to 0.75 U.S. Households – Greenhouse gas emission (GHG): +8.7 to 12.8 MT • Equivalent to 1.8 to 2.7 automobiles – Manure production: +12.2 to 20.4 MT • Equivalent to sewage from 75 to 110 people Source: 2012, Capper, J.L. & R.A. Cady, J. Dairy Sci.
- 11. Cultural Considerations In India, many people regard cows as sacred animals and do not raise cattle for beef consumption. Instead, some cattle may roam freely with minimal human intervention and could live for 10 years to 15 years. In these regions, improving beef production may need to be more specific to water buffalo.
- 12. GMAFCANON00190 Climate volatility is increasing animal disease challenges Global Animal Health is Dynamic Reality #3: Disease Challenges 3 in 4 cattle fight respiratory disease 1 in 4 dairy cows face mastitis 9 in 10 chickens exposed to coccidiosis 1 in 3 pig herds experience ileitis Constant Health Challenge Emerging Diseases New Threats Caution: Prevention and Therapeutic Needs Critical. Don’t set dates to remove solutions without alternatives.
- 13. GMAFCANON00190 One Health Healthy Animals, Healthy People, Healthy Planet Less animals Less disease Less environmental impact Less “noise” Implications
- 15. Meat Milk Energy Control IncreaseinEndofTermTestScores The Importance of Meat, Milk and Eggs (Over 5 School Terms) Neumann, C.G. et al. “Meat Supplementation Improves Growth, Cognitive, and Behavioral Outcomes in Kenyan Children.” Journal of Nutrition, 2007. When diets are supplemented with meat or milk, learning and test scores improve. Quality of nutrients versus just quantity of calories matter. Why meat matters
- 18. Considerations for Improving Beef Production Farming best practices and innovations can contribute to the improved efficiency of global beef production. When discussing beef production, we must also consider a variety of factors that influence how farmers and ranchers assess the value of cattle and water buffalo, including idle animals, cultural differences, and social and economic considerations.
- 20. GMAFCANON00190 We can freeze the footprint with innovation Without ANY innovation Without ANY innovation 1961 2010 2050 1961 2010 2050 Without ANY innovation 1961 2010 2050
- 21. GMAFCANON00190 Global Average vs Best in Class Protein production index globally Pork: 40 more lbs in 70 less days Chicken: 2.2 lbs. in half the time Eggs: 185/hen/yr vs. 270/hen/yr Beef: 2 years vs 5 years to maturity + 2.2 lbs Milk: 2 gallons vs 8 gallons 2 gallons 8 gallons 2 years 5 years +40 lbs +85 eggs Knapp, J. and Cady, R. Elanco Animal Health. 2013 Food Forward Report. 2013. We can feed significantly more people with less animals by increasing the global average.
- 22. Better Housing Nutritional Advances Contributing factors for continued improvement in cattle and water buffalo health and growth Genetic Selection & Breeding Practices Improved Animal Health Practices Meeting the Demand for Beef
- 23. How can innovation help beef production? Improved, year-round nutrition combined with other farming best practices can help cattle and water buffalo grow more efficiently. Typical Global Steer Growth Minimal Use of Farming Best Practices 5 years to reach maturity 260 kg(573 lb) of bone-in beef 26.2 kg (57.8 lb) of feed per kilogram of beef Optimal Steer Growth Improved Use of Farming Best Practices 2 years to reach maturity 330 kg (727.5 lb) of bone-in beef 13.3 kg (29.3lb) of feed per kilogram of beef 2 Years5 Years Knapp, J. Elanco Animal Health. 2014 Food Forward: Global Beef Story. Data on file.
- 24. 1.7 Billion Cattle & Water Buffalo 2050 Continued Innovation How many cattle & water buffalo will we need? 2.38 Billion Cattle & Water Buffalo 2050 Frozen Innovation To produce enough beef to meet demand in 2050, we can raise more cattle and water buffalo, and use more resources. Or we can improve how cattle and water buffalo are raised so that they produce more beef more efficiently. 1.68 Billion Cattle & Water Buffalo 2010
- 25. Or will we use innovation to improve efficiency? With continued innovation, we can produce 43% more beef with fewer than 1.7 billion cattle and water buffalo. More importantly, we can freeze the environmental footprint of beef production! Grazed Forage: Water: 2010 2050 Frozen Innovation 2050 Continued Innovation 2010 2050 Frozen Innovation 2050 Continued Innovation 13.1 Billion Metric Tonnes 18.7 Billion Metric Tonnes 5.76 Trillion Liters 8.23 Trillion Liters 5.76 Trillion Liters Knapp, J. Elanco Animal Health. 2014 Food Forward: Global Beef Story. Data on file. 13.1 Billion Metric Tonnes 14.4 billion tons 20.6 billion tons 14.4 billion tons 1.52 trillion gallons 2.16 trillion gallons 1.52 trillion gallons
- 26. >Grazed Forage Savings 5.6 billion metric tonnes saved 6.2 billion tons saved More beef. Real resource savings. 43% more beef with less than 1.7 billion cattle and water buffalo in 2050* Water Savings 2.48 trillion liters saved 655 billion gallons saved = 43% less forage and grazing land = 43% less water *Savings are based on comparison of frozen innovation in 2050 versus continued improvements in the use of innovation in 2050 Knapp, J. Elanco Animal Health. 2014 Food Forward: Global Beef Story. Data on file.
- 27. GMAFCANON00190 Balancing Innovation and Choice We must deliver new innovation that customers embrace without jeopardizing the health of the animal. Productivity is part of the solution. Not more animals Global productivity is plateauing We can’t remove a safe solution without an alternative
- 28. GMAFCANON00190 28 8 Point Plan Recap Act with responsibility globally. Cease marketing of growth promotion uses for shared-class antibiotics by the end of 2016. Help customers eliminate continuous use of shared-class antibiotics for therapy purposes by providing an alternative. Eliminate over-the-counter sales of shared-class antibiotics where oversight exists. Eliminate concurrent use of shared-class antibiotics to treat the same disease. Support veterinary oversight, including helping build infrastructure globally. Develop new animal-only antibiotics. Create alternatives. Invest in non-antibiotic solutions where there are few, or no, alternatives to shared-class antibiotics.
- 29. Social & Economic Considerations In some regions, socio-economic and political factors limit access to and trust in banking systems that are common in developed countries. Families may purchase and maintain cattle and other livestock for many years as a way to save money instead of keeping cash. Cattle or their calves may then be traded or sold as needed. Improving beef production may be secondary to helping improve the socio- economic and political landscape.
- 30. GMAFCANON00190 Population growth exceeding expectations Resource use is accelerating Threats to animal health are increasing The Solutions Our New Realities Implications Animals Disease Resources Noise Less Innovation Choice Access Nutrition Mega Forces>Consumer Noise Realities Pathway to a Food Secure Future
- 31. Health Benefits of Beef." Beef Bytes #1. National Cattlemen's Beef Association. Accessed Oct. 16,, 2014 Beef is a good source of iron, B12 and protein. Cattle and water buffalo consume grasses and plant matter humans cannot digest, and graze on land that cannot be cultivated for human foods. Benefits of Beef
- 32. GMAFCANON00190 @P8_4ward TM #FeedThe9 Facebook.com/ ENOUGHmovement @ENOUGH2050 @ENOUGH2050 What can we do together?
Hinweis der Redaktion
- 2007 was when Livestock’s Long Shadow was published and 2011 was the first publication of FAO’s first predictions of global demand for livestock protein. The 2011 forecasts were updated in 2012 which were used to reference this slide. As you can see for the bridge proteins, consumption actually exceeds the predictions. The impact of the middle class is being felt now. We cannot wait until the future. FAO does not publish egg demand estimates
- A leading indicator of supply: demand, the population growth line does not account for increasing middle class and growth in per capita consumption. Will examine individual proteins in more detail in later charts. Protein supply has been increasing faster than the population indicating the world is responding to increased demand However, the general trend in protein rate of growth is downward and it appears as though it could drop below the rate in growth of the global population meaning we could be heading for a further shortage of accessible protein Dip in 2009 protein production growth rate is most probably due to the worldwide recession. Protein supply growth is recovering but has not reached pre-recession rates of growth
- Slide used to defend why we are tracking the 5 major sources of land-based animal source protein: Pork, Cattle beef, Cattle milk, Chicken, and Chicken eggs instead of all animals source species. These 5 account for 88% of all animal source protein and thus serve as sentinel (benchmark) species to track production impacts. See definition of total source species below Poultry includes: Chicken, Turkey, Goose, Duck, Guinea Fowl Ovine includes: Sheep & Goat Milk includes: Cattle, Water Buffalo, Goat, Sheep, Camel Beef includes: Cattle & Water Buffalo Other includes: Horse, Mule, Camel, Rabbit, Rodent, Nesting birds, Nes, other Camelids (e.g.. Llama)
- Why do we need more animal protein anyway? This chart illustrates the importance of proper nutrition on a child’s development. A landmark study in Kenya compared changes in test scores for school children over five school terms. The children’s diets were supplemented with energy from oils, milk or meat. You’ll notice that scores went up dramatically for the meat and milk groups, but fell for the group being fed a mix of maize and beans and greens with some added oil for the control group. This study confirms the positive impact of the quality of calories in the diet, not just the quantity of calories. This shows why it’s critical we meet increased demand.
- 1. Knapp, J. and Cady, R. Elanco Animal Health. 2013 Food Forward Report. 2013.
- No single approach will increase the global supply of beef while freezing the environmental footprint. To achieve these results, we must provide farmers and ranchers around the world with improved access to the full suite of farming best practices and innovations.
- Cattle and water buffalo that are raised on grazing lands only may experience periods of time when they have insufficient nutrients, which slows their growth. This slide provides one example demonstrating how improved nutrition can impact steer growth. Bulls, female cattle, dairy cattle and water buffalo have different rates of growth.
- For presenters: Grazed forage typically consists of plant matter humans cannot consume such as grasses and post-harvest field residue (e.g. corn stalks, wheat straw, etc.). For presentation in the United States, the conversion from metric to Imperial measurements is as follows: 13.1 billion metric tonnes = 14.4 billion tons 18.7 billion metric tonnes = 20.6 billion tons 5.76 trillion liters = 1.52 trillion gallons 8.23 trillion liters = 2.16 billion gallons
- For presenters: Grazed forage typically consists of plant matter humans cannot consume such as grasses and post-harvest field residue (e.g. corn stalks, wheat straw, etc.). These savings reflect the difference between utilizing today’s farming practices and innovations in 2050 (frozen innovation) versus utilizing continued innovation in 2050. The results of utilizing continued innovation are significant resources savings. With continued innovation, we’ll need less than 1.7 billion cattle and water buffalo. That’s 40 percent fewer cattle and water buffalo compared to continuing to use today’s farming practices in 2050. And we’ll be able to produce 43 percent more beef than we produce today while using 43 percent less forage and grazing land, and 43 percent less water as compared to frozen innovations.