How Beef & Dairy Will Deal with the Precautionary Principle? - Frank M. Mitloehner, PhD, Professor and Air Quality Extension Specialist, Department of Animal Science, University of California Davis, from the 2014 NIAA Annual Conference titled 'The Precautionary Principle: How Agriculture Will Thrive', March 31 - April 2, 2014, Omaha, NE, USA. More presentations at http://www.trufflemedia.com/agmedia/conference/2014_niaa_how_animal_agriculture_will_thrive

1. How shall Beef and Dairy Deal with the
Precautionary Principle regarding
Environmental Quality?
NIAA, Omaha, NE, April 1, 2014
Frank Mitloehner, PhD
Professor & Air Quality CE Specialist
Dept Animal Science
University of California, Davis

7. GHG & GWP
Global Warming Potential (GWP) of
Main GHG
 Carbon Dioxide, CO2 1
 Methane, CH4 25
 Nitrous Oxide, N2O 298
CO2 – Carbon Dioxide CH4 – Methane N2O – Nitrous Oxide

8. Carbon Dioxide and Carbon Flux

9. U.S. – the big GHG picture
Source: EPA (2009)

10. “Livestock’s Long Shadow” (FAO, 2006)
• “The Livestock sector is a major player,
responsible for 18% of GHG emissions
measured in CO2e. This is a higher share
than transport”

16. 16
100200300400500
Indexnumber:1961=100
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Roots and tubers Cereals
Meat Milk
Eggs
Per caput consumption of major food items in developing countries – kg per caput per year (index numbers 1961=100)
Consumption is growing rapidly in
developing countries
Eggs
Meat
Milk

17. 17
Per capita GDP and meat consumption by country, 2005.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000
Per capita GDP (US$ PPP)
Percapitameatconsumpion(kg/year)
USA
Japan
China
Brazil
Malaysia
Germany
Ghana
NorwayLithuania
... driven by incomes ...

18. Global livestock distribution
FAO (2006)

19. Distribution of cropland
FAO (2006)

20. MtCO2-eq
Time (years)
GHG by Regions

21. Production efficiency and pollution is
inversely related
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Output per cow, kg FPCM per year
kgCO2-eq.perkgFPCM

22. More Milk Produced per Cow –
Less Methane & Waste
California Cow Mexican Cow
20,000
lbs/yr/cow
500 g 2000 gMethane
Production
4,000 lbs/yr/cow

23. FAO (2010)

24. Emission Intensities
(direct emissions from livestock)
GTAP 2001 data base

25. Mitigation: interventions to improve
productivity
Gill et al. (2010)

26. US Dairy trends
• Today, there are 9 million dairy cows in
the US, 16 million fewer than existed in
1950.
• Even though cow number have
decreased dramatically (1950 versus
2013), milk production nationally has
increased 60 percent.
• The carbon footprint of a glass of milk is
2/3 smaller today than it was 70 years
ago.

27. China Swine Example
• China’s five year plan focuses on making
farms larger and more efficient
• Half of the world’s pigs live in China
• 50 million sows w/ 20 piglets born alive
• Equals annual production of 1 Billion pigs
• Pre-weaning mortality causes 400 Million
pigs to never make it to the market
• One more pig per sow would mean
1 Million tons of feed saved

28. Sustainable Intensification
is key!
• Production intensity enhances
biological efficiency
• Production intensity and
emission intensity are inversely
related

29. Partnership on Livestock
Environmental Assessment &
Performance (LEAP)
• Globally harmonized methodology for
environmental footprints
• LEAP = national governments,
livestock industry, non-governmental
and civil society organizations, leading
researchers

30. Frank Mitloehner, PhD
Air Quality CE Specialist
Animal Science Department
University of California, Davis
(530) 752-3936
fmmitloehner@ucdavis.edu