Trichomoniasis, a cattle disease, has significant economic impacts on the US cattle industry. It is estimated to cause the loss of approximately 96,000 calves annually in Texas alone, worth $95 million in lost revenue to the cow/calf industry and $156 million if evaluated at the feedlot level. Analysis of a representative Texas ranch shows trichomoniasis resulting in a 9% decline in annual revenue and an 81% decline in net cash farm income. The disease has substantial cumulative economic effects on ranch profitability over time. Further analysis is needed to fully quantify the impacts using alternative disease scenarios and extending the model to other states.

1. Economic Aspects ofEconomic Aspects of
Trichomoniasis: Effects on USTrichomoniasis: Effects on US
Cattle HerdCattle Herd
NIAA/USAHA Joint Forum on Trichomoniasis
Standards
Omaha, Nebraska
April 3, 2014
David P. Anderson

2. OverviewOverview
• Texas Industry
• Economic Impact
• Ranch Level Impact
TrichTrich

3. TX Industry AssumptionsTX Industry Assumptions
• 20 Percent of Herds
– Herd vs cattle
– Last data about 150,000 operations
• Weighted Average of Weaning Rates
– 85% on 80% of cattle
– 73% on 20% of cattle
• Estimated Number of Calves Not
Produced

4. TX Industry AssumptionsTX Industry Assumptions
• 90 Day Calving Interval
• Other Scenarios Are Reasonable
• Tradeoff
– Chose to go with 90 interval
– Impact of disease on number of calves rather
than weights
– Can assume longer calving interval, more calves
but lighter weights

5. ImpactImpact
• Lose Approximately 96,000 Calves
– Lost potential
• About 2.5 Percent Fewer Calves
• At 2013 Average Prices $95 Million in
Revenue
– Cow/Calf Value
– Revenue that was not realized

6. ImpactImpact
• If evaluated at Feedlot, Finished Level
– 96,000 more fed cattle
• Total Revenue Lost
– $156 million

7. Couple Other CommentsCouple Other Comments
• Given Infrastructure Losses of Late
– 96,000 more fed cattle is a pretty good size
feedlot
– 96,000 more head for a packing plant

8. Representative RanchRepresentative Ranch
AnalysisAnalysis
• AFPC Representative Ranches
• Representative Ranches Guthrie
– 335 cows
– Used to be 500 before the drought
• Base and 1 Scenario
– Base 85 percent weaning
– Trich scenario 73 percent weaning

9. -46000
-44000
-42000
-40000
-38000
-36000
-34000
-32000
Revenue NCFI
Guthrie
Change in Revenue, NCFI, 2016Change in Revenue, NCFI, 2016

10. Ranch Level ImpactsRanch Level Impacts
• Decline in Revenue and NCFI
– 9%, 81%, respectively
• Significant Impact on Ranch
Economics
• Annual Effects
– Cumulative over time is large

11. Remaining WorkRemaining Work
• Formalize Alternative Scenarios
– Alternative calving intervals
– Impacts on number of calves and calf weights
• Extend Analysis to Representative
Ranches in Other States
• Write the Analysis Up and Publish
– Get analysis out to wider audience