Given to PMI KC Professional Development Days 2014 Conference. In this session, we will investigate the challenges with the popular Agile planning and reporting concepts like story points, planning poker, and average velocity. We will explore some practical alternative planning and reporting practices that the business can understand. And we will look at metrics that are less of an abstraction from reality and more actionable by teams and management.

1. Speak To The Business!
Agile
Metrics
That
Inform
Rather
Confuse
the
Business
“If you give a manager a target, he will meet it,
even if he has to destroy the organization to do
so.”
--W. Edwards Deming
Troy
Tu'le,
KCP
Principal
Consultant,
Owner
KanFlow.com
troy@kanflow.com
@troytuDle

2. Why
do
we
use
Metrics?
To
help
us
make
informed
decisions!

3. Definitions of “Agile” metrics terms:
Velocity:
At the end of each iteration, the team adds up effort estimates (“story points”)
associated with user stories that were completed during that iteration. This total
is called velocity. – Agile Alliance
Story Points:
Agile teams generally prefer to express estimates in units other than the time-honored
"man-day" or "man-hour". Story points are purposely dimensionless.
-- Agile Alliance
Example:
Options for sizing stories are (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100).
Based on what was completed, the team’s velocity is 25 story
points per iteration.

4. The mistrust of story points
“Yippee!
Our
Velocity
went
from
25
to
35
story
points
the
last
2
sprints.
Let’s
go
celebrate!”
What
is
Velocity?
What
is
a
Story
Point?
So
the
team
does
relaQve
esQmaQon.
At
any
Qme,
they
can
change
a
“5”
to
an
“8”
and
increase
their
Velocity
next
sprint.
And
we
should
celebrate
this???

5. What about Story Point predictability?
Don’t
story
points
help
us
predict
when
a
batch
of
unequal-­‐sized
stories
will
be
completed?
The
following
data
examples
are
all
from
real-­‐world
so[ware
teams
or
companies…

6. Story point myopia
16
72
21
19
37
-­‐-­‐
Jim
Benson,
moduscooperandi.com
Velocity
in
Story
Points
7
9
9
9
7
Throughput
in
Card
Count

7. Velocity is a proxy metric
Story
points
are
designed
to
be
abstract.
Velocity
is
an
aDempt
to
plan
work
based
on
an
abstracQon,
based
on
an
esQmate.
SomeQmes
this
causes
unnecessary
confusion
and
drama!

8. Unfortunate side effect
Velocity
(based
on
story
points)
has
become
a
social
and
business
currency.

10. What about Story Point predictability?
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
?

11. What about Story Point predictability?
-­‐Vasco
Duarte
hDp://bit.ly/vasco_blog
@duarte_vasco
24
sprint
project

12. What about Story Point predictability?
Courtesy
of
Bennet
Vallet
Director
of
Development
Siemens
Health
Services
Expected
DistribuQon
Actual
DistribuQon

13. What about Story Point predictability?
Next
you
will
see
the
forecasted
release
date
when
using
Story
Points
(values
1:2:3)

14. What about Story Point predictability?
48
49
46
46
44
43
42
42
37
37
36
35
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Release
on
12th
October
2014

15. What about Story Point predictability?
Next
you
will
see
the
forecasted
release
date
when
using
Story
Points
(values
1:3:5)

16. What about Story Point predictability?
68
68
64
64
62
60
59
59
52
52
51
50
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Release
on
18th
October
2014

17. What about Story Point predictability?
Next
you
will
see
the
forecasted
release
date
when
just
counQng
number
of
stories
(or,
all
stories
=
1
story
point)

18. 60
28
302
82
8
262
62
52
5
222
22
1
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
70
80
90
1/1
1/3
1/5
1/7
1/9
1/11
1/13
1/15
1/17
1/19
1/21
1/23
1/25
1/27
1/29
1/31
2/2
2/4
2/6
2/8
2/10
2/12
2/14
2/16
2/18
2/20
2/22
2/24
2/26
2/28
3/1
3/3
3/5
3/7
3/9
Release
on
27th
September
2014
What about Story Point predictability?

19. What about Story Point predictability?
Conclusion...

20. What about Story Point predictability?
All
dates
within
3
weeks
of
each
other
in
a
38
to
42
week
project

21. ”At
that
point,
I
stopped
thinking
that
es:ma:ng
Data
used
with
permission
from
Bill
Hanlon
at
Microso[
was
important.”
Bill
Hanlon:
hDp://bit.ly/BHanlon
Data
VisualizaQons
courtesy
of
Vasco
Duarte
hDp://bit.ly/vasco_blog
@duarte_vasco

22. Get out of the Cult
“Cargo
Cult
Agile”
Many
1st
generaQon
Agile
aDempts
simply
installed
pracQces
(recipes).
Following
recipes
leads
to
Cargo
Cult
Agile

23. No estimation, seriously?
#noesQmates
started
as
a
conversaQon
on
TwiDer
and
grew
into
a
movement
within
the
Agile
community.
If
we
reject
being
in
an
Agile
Cargo
Cult,
we
can
quesQon
the
status
quo,
and
ask
Why?

24. Can
we
do
this
work
without
esQmaQng?
Sure!
But
we
need
some
good,
old
fashioned,
Agile
discipline…

25. The #noestimates Playbook
• Dedicated and stable teams
• Right size user stories
• Iterate and deliver frequently
• Drip Feed or Investment Funding
• Track lead time and throughput
• Speak the language of the business!
(don’t use terms from physics)
• Don’t use bullet points in your slides

26. The #noestimates Playbook
Op<on
#1
Hours-­‐long
tradiQonal
sprint
planning
meeQngs
spent
playing
planning
poker
and
a
team
arguing
about
the
difference
between
2’s
and
3’s.
Op<on
#2
Short
story
slicing
meeQng
where
the
focus
is
on
understanding
and
slicing
large
stories.
“Do
we
understand
this
story?
If
not,
let’s
keep
slicing.”
Right-­‐sizing
the
work
1
2
3
5
8
13
20
40
100

27. The #noestimates Playbook
Input
Q
5
stories
per
week
Design
Develop
Test
1
2
1
Done
3
1 2
7
9
6
8
4
5
Lead Time
Throughput
10
14
days
from
this
point
Upstream
Planning
1.
PrioriQze
MVP A
2.
Analyze
MVP B
S
S
S
S
S S
S
S
S
S

28. Cumulative Flow Diagram
Courtesy
of
AcQonableAgile.com

29. Scatter Plot Diagram
Courtesy
of
AcQonableAgile.com

30. The #noestimates Playbook
ProbabilisQc
ForecasQng
If we start a new story today, we expect to complete it in:
<=
6
days
(50th
percenQle)
<=
15
days
(85th
percenQle)
<=
22
days
(95th
percenQle)
If we start a batch of 20 stories today, we expect to complete them in:
>=
9
days
(throughput
of
2.33
/
day)

31. Summary
• Speak the language of the business, use “throughput”
and “lead time” instead of the proxy metrics of “story
points” and “velocity”
• Metrics that are transparent and based on the actual
system’s capacity, are generally more actionable.
• Beware of Cargo Cult Agile. Know why you observe
certain practices. Be willing to question!

32. Speak To The Business!
Agile
Metrics
That
Inform
Rather
Confuse
the
Business
“If you give a manager a target, he will meet it,
even if he has to destroy the organization to do
so.”
--W. Edwards Deming
Troy
Tu'le,
KCP
Principal
Consultant,
Owner
KanFlow.com
troy@kanflow.com
@troytuDle