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INDIA’S   FUTURE 29 January 2007 R B Roy Choudhury Memorial lecture  Mumbai
Even though the world has just discovered it, the India growth story is not new. It has been going on for 25 years old
What is the India story?
1) Rising GDP growth  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],India Story
2) Population growth is slowing  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],India Story
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3. Literacy is rising India Story
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],4. Middle class is exploding  India Story
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],5. Poverty is declining India Story
6. Productivity is rising   ,[object Object],[object Object],India Story
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],7. Per capita income gains India Story
8. India is now the 4 th  largest economy   ,[object Object],India Story
THE INDIA MODEL IS UNIQUE
DRIVERS OF GROWTH ,[object Object],[object Object]
DRIVERS OF GROWTH ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
DRIVERS OF GROWTH ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
DRIVERS OF GROWTH ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
IMPLICATIONS OF INDIA MODEL  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
IMPLICATION OF INDIA MODEL  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
IMPLICATION OF INDIA MODEL  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
    Reasons for Success   India’s success is market led whereas China’s is state induced. The entrepreneur is at centre of the Indian model
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
India has a vibrant private space  ,[object Object],[object Object]
India has a vibrant private space  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
India has a vibrant private space  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
India has a vibrant private space  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
India has a vibrant private space  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
India has a vibrant private space  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
But public space is a problem   ,[object Object],[object Object]
Public space is a problem   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Public space is a problem   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Public space is a problem   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Public space is a problem   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Public space is a problem   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Earlier we had world class institutions, but they are now failing  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Contrast between public and private space raises the question : ,[object Object]
Economy grows at night when government is asleep
What explains India’s economic success? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Key Reforms ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What explains India’s economic success? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What explains India’s economic success? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Looking Forward ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],This means a per capita income  roughly of  (on a ppp basis):
[object Object],[object Object]
Demographic trend points to sharp increases in input factors 25+ yrs 0-25 yrs Demographic Split 1.5 bn 1.1 bn Labor Force Labor Force will double in the next 20 years
Demographic trend points to sharp increases in input factors Age Dependency Savings Rate Higher savings and investment rate will translate into higher GDP growth
India’s demographic advantage means that its high growth will continue longer term while China will slow
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],INDIA WILL GRADUALLY TURN MIDDLE CLASS
“ By 2010 India will have world’s largest number of English speakers” “When 300 million Indians speak a    word in a certain way, that will be the way to speak it.” -Prof. David Crystal, Cambridge Encyclopedia of the English Language
What could stop the show?   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
REFORM SCHOOL ,[object Object]
REFORM SCHOOL ,[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
REFORM SCHOOL ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
REFORM SCHOOL ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
REFORM SCHOOL ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bottom Line ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
  India has law, China has order - India got democracy before capitalism and this has made all the difference -It will be slower than China but its path will be surer -India more likely to preserve its way of life
[object Object]

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Incredible India Growth Story

  • 1. INDIA’S FUTURE 29 January 2007 R B Roy Choudhury Memorial lecture Mumbai
  • 2. Even though the world has just discovered it, the India growth story is not new. It has been going on for 25 years old
  • 3. What is the India story?
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12. THE INDIA MODEL IS UNIQUE
  • 13.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. Reasons for Success India’s success is market led whereas China’s is state induced. The entrepreneur is at centre of the Indian model
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36. Economy grows at night when government is asleep
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45. Demographic trend points to sharp increases in input factors 25+ yrs 0-25 yrs Demographic Split 1.5 bn 1.1 bn Labor Force Labor Force will double in the next 20 years
  • 46. Demographic trend points to sharp increases in input factors Age Dependency Savings Rate Higher savings and investment rate will translate into higher GDP growth
  • 47. India’s demographic advantage means that its high growth will continue longer term while China will slow
  • 48.
  • 49. “ By 2010 India will have world’s largest number of English speakers” “When 300 million Indians speak a word in a certain way, that will be the way to speak it.” -Prof. David Crystal, Cambridge Encyclopedia of the English Language
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52.
  • 53.
  • 54.
  • 55.
  • 56.
  • 57.
  • 58.
  • 59. India has law, China has order - India got democracy before capitalism and this has made all the difference -It will be slower than China but its path will be surer -India more likely to preserve its way of life
  • 60.