This document discusses California's economic challenges, including slower job and income growth compared to the national average. It notes California's declining share of the US economy and population loss due to domestic migration out of the state. The document examines factors contributing to California's budget issues like healthcare and social security costs. It provides recommendations to improve California's economy such as reducing bad regulations, developing domestic energy resources, cutting business costs, and increasing legal immigration.

1. Is California’s Future Still Golden?
Bill Watkins September 2012

2. United States

3. Why Doesn’t it
Feel Like a
Recovery?
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4. Fewer People are Working
140.0
Non-Farm Jobs-SA
138.0
136.0
134.0
132.0
130.0
128.0
126.0
124.0
2000Q1 2002Q2 2004Q3 2006Q4 2009Q1 2011Q2
Center for Economic Research and Forecasting
United States - (millions of jobs)

5. Incomes are Down
Real Per Capita Gross Domestic
44 44 Product
44 44 44
43
43
43 43
43
43 43
42 42
42
42 42
42
42
42 41
41
2007Q1 2007Q4 2008Q3 2009Q2 2010Q1 2010Q4 2011Q3 2012Q2
Center for Economic Research and Forecasting
United States - (thousands of 2005 dollars)

6. People are Poorer
Real Per Capita Net Wealth:
212 212 211
Household Sector
205
195
188
178
171 175 173 175 178
166 166 169
162 161 163 161 164
154 156
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1
Center for Economic Research and Forecasting
United States - (thousands of 2005 Q1 dollars)

7. Many have Given Up Looking for Work
Percent Share of Civilian Labor Force/Population
Population
Jan. 1980 to August 2012
52.0
51.0
50.0
49.0
48.0
47.0
46.0
45.0

8. United States
Forecast
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9. Then, there is the
deficit.
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11. Hint: It’s not
infrastructure
or Defense.

12. Department Overlay as %GDP 2010
10.2
8.0
5.8
5.2
4.5
Total Government Dept. of Defense Dept. of Health and Social Security Other spending
Deficit Human Services Administration

13. How to Fix the
Budget
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14. How to Grow the
Economy
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15. Increase Legal Immigration
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16. Get Rid of Bad Regulation
Dodd-Frank
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17. Develop
Domestic Energy
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18. The Upside Risk
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19. What could go wrong?
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20. Real Estate

21. Home Ownership Getting Better!
United States
Home Ownership Rate, SA
Percent of Households
70.0
69.0
68.0
67.0
66.0
65.0
64.0
63.0
62.0
61.0
60.0
1980Q1 1986Q1 1992Q1 1998Q1 2004 Q1 2010 Q1

22. Has California lost its
mojo?

23. California Smaller Part of U.S. Economy
California Nonfarm Jobs as a
share of United States
11.4%
11.2%
11.1% 11.1%
11.1%
11.0% 11.0%
10.9% 10.8%
10.8%
10.7% 10.7%
10.6%
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Center for Economic Research and Forecasting
California - (percent of U.S.)

24. Domestic Migration
-46 -54 -51
-63
-81
-92 -97 -99
-120
-151 -151 -143
-160
-215
-256 -249
-265
20 Years -313
-389 -384 3.8 Million
-434
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Center for Economic Research and Forecasting
California - (thousands of persons)

25. • 34 % with 12 %
• 38 of 58
• 34.6 %
• 31 %
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26. Taylor Caldwell said:
“If they can’t do it in
California, it can’t
be done anywhere.”
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27. www.clucerf.org

28. Muddy said:
“I got my mojo
worken.
It just don’t work on
you.”

29. California Forecast

30. Modest Output Growth
Weaker Job Growth
Persistent High
Unemployment.

31. Some of California’s
regions are doing
better than others.
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32. How to Change California’s
Forecast
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33. Recognize the problem.

34. Mining
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35. Get rid of bad regulation
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36. Do regulation right
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37. Cut the Cost of :
Delay
Uncertainty
Regulations
Taxes

38. Which brings us back to China

39. Thank you!
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