Global Energy Buyer's Roadmap

Global Energy
Buyer’s Roadmap
- eBook -
Our guide for the emerging trends
in global energy markets

Table of Contents
Introduction
About Us
Europe’s Rising Non-energy Costs
Managing Brazil’s High Volatility Power Market
India, a Story of 3 Rs: Regulation, Renewable & Reform
Philippines and Singapore - Deregulation Opportunity
The Impact of U.S. Exports on Energy Markets
Global Energy Market Conclusions
page 4
page 4
page 6
page 16
page 24
page 32
page 40
page 48
page 49
page 50
page 51
Contact Us
Audio Recordings
Forthcoming Events

© 2013 EnergyQuote JHA, Fellon-McCord and Ecom Energia. All rights reserved.
Introduction
About Us
Identify
opportunities for cost reduction
and cost avoidance
Learn
about the impact of regulatory
change and market evolution
Educate
your internal stakeholders
Established in 1992, Fellon-McCord provides
energy and sustainability management services to
industrial, commercial, higher education, municipal
and co-operative utility clients throughout North
America. Starting with four large industrial clients,
we distinguished ourselves as an early leader in the
competitive energy industry and earned a reputation
for providing professional expertise with a personal
touch. Our business has expanded to encompass a
portfolio of clients who annually consume billions of
dollars in energy on a global basis.
By leveraging our long-standing industry
relationships, we offer the resources, information
and systems to manage our clients’ needs from the
energy source to point-of-end use. We partner with
our clients to create value-driven solutions by helping
them manage energy prices, minimize energy usage,
optimize energy assets and reduce carbon emissions.
fellonmccord.com
Over a one-month period EnergyQuote JHA, Ecom
Energia and Fellon-McCord covered five emerging
trends in global energy markets through a series
of live webinars titled “The Global Energy Buyer’s
Roadmap”. The purpose of this series is to educate
global energy buyers on market specific opportunities
and drivers that will be important in 2013 by enabling
them to understand:
This eBook is the culmination of “Global Energy Buyer’s Roadmap” series and will help you:
the Where, the What and the How.
Fellon-McCord
4

5
energyquote.com
ecomenergia.com
EnergyQuote JHA is Europe’s largest independent
energy and carbon consultancy delivering bespoke
solutions to Customers since 1973. Specialist in
energy price risk management, energy efficiency,
onsite generation and carbon regulation EnergyQuote
JHA now trades more than €4 billion of energy
contracts annually. With offices across Europe and
partners globally EnergyQuote JHA provides local
expertise with Global Coverage.
At EnergyQuote JHA we have delivered bottom-line
benefits to a wide range of FTSE 100, FTSE 250
and Fortune 500 clients. Wider services include
a web based e-sourcing system for power and
gas, full bureau services with data monitoring and
financial management capabilities, market pricing
and analysis, market intelligence publications,
workshops, seminars, risk management, carbon and
sustainability, generation development and energy
and water audit services..
Consolidated as the biggest independent seller of
energy in Brazil and experience by having already
negotiated more than R$ 45 million of MW and a
contracts portfolio of energy and gas superior to
$ 20 billion, Ecom Energia acts in the trading of
energy and natural gas, in the process of consumers
migration to the free market, in the management of
energy contracts in the free and captive markets and
in the management of contracts for gas supplying.
Founded in 2002, Ecom was the pioneer in
implementing instruments which demonstrate to
the market its engagement with responsibility and
security in operations to buy and sell energy. The
company was born to trade energy with innovation,
flexibility and transparency, operating with excellence
and ensuring total satisfaction of our clients..
EnergyQuote JHA
Ecom Energia

6
Europe’s Rising Non-energy Costs
Please click here to view the recording of the
Europe’s Rising Non-Energy Costs webinar.

7
Non-energy costs in Europe are here to stay...
BUT...
there are possible actions to mitigate them at least partially
European policy & economic realities
Sustainability Security
of supply
Competitiveness
• Kyoto protocol
• National RES subsidy
schemes
• ETS
• Does one
undermine the other?
• 20-20-20 targets
• From a sustainability
policy perspective
natural gas appears to
be the ideal “bridge”
technology
• Is nuclear really
sustainable?
• Growing dependency
on imports of fossil fuels
• Ageing infrastructure
• Increase in intermittent
output from RES
• Need for efficient and
flexible power plants
• Does the market send
the right signals
for much needed
investments?
• Need for smart grids,
which support
decentralised power
production
• Can Europe pay the
price for necessary
investments and
sustainable development
whilst keeping energy
prices affordable and
retain key industries
within its boundaries?
• Europe has to compete
with other regions for
“allocation” of fuels e.g.
oil, LNG, etc.
Key Drivers at European Level

8
Underlying Issues
Supply
Grids
Demand
Policy
•Nuclear phase-out
•Intermittent RES
•Coal & gas bridge technologies
•Currently gas ‘not in the money’
•The right market signals are currently not
there
•Oversupplied market at least in capacity
terms
•Is grid investment attractive enough at
TSO and DNO level?
•Can grids be built quickly enough
particularly transmission lines (red tape)?
•Connecting off-shore wind-parks
•Does Germany need a different
regulation regime for T&D fees?
•2050 target of 80% RES
•Some sectors literally exempt from nonenergy
costs
•Are German non-energy cost exemptions
(e.g. for EEG levy) in line with EU law?
•Integrating RES into the market
•Does the market design need to change?
•Increasingly I&C consumers turn towards
co- and/or onsite generation
•EU economy expected to remain
‘sluggish’ in the near term
•Not enough peak demand to consume
RES output on a sunny/windy day
The ‘Energiewende’ a $717bn project

9
Non-energy Cost Breakdown
NB – Calculations are based on a representative consumer with 10,000 MWh/a and 2.5 MW maximum demand.
Possible discounts or exemptions from taxes & levies have not been taken into account.
16.52
1.10
20.50
12.00
16.39
1.10
20.50
20.47
16.86
1.10
20.50
35.53
16.97
1.10
20.50
35.92
18.98
1.10
20.50
52.77
19.95
1.10
20.50
61.39
21.12
1.10
20.50
67.52

10
Discounts &
exemptions
Self-generation Energy efficiency
• EEG: Grünstrom-
Privileg & Härtefall-
Regelung
• Power tax: discount
for manufacturing
enterprises and
certain processes
• Power tax:
Spitzenausgleich
compensation
• T&D: StromNEV
§19(2) discounts
(exemptions deemed
illegal in Mar-13)
• CHP with FiT
for 10 years or
up to 30,000h
• RES installation with
or without FiT
• Avoid T&D costs and
taxes & levies on
every MWh produced
• Under current
conditions new
CHP projects
typically
amortise within
3 years (2 in
extreme cases) subject
to exact circumstances
• Make or buy
• Can Europe pay the
price for necessary
investments and
sustainable development
whilst keeping energy
prices affordable and
retain key industries
within its boundaries?
• Europe has to compete
with other regions for
“allocation” of fuels e.g.
oil, LNG, etc.
What can one do…?
Mitigating costs
Germany –
A Story of Many Taxes & Levies

11
Grid investment Supply Policy
Dutch electricity and
natural gas grids well
interconnected with
neighbouring countries
•Significant imports from
Germany (RES)
•Imbalance
risks and
congestion
make further
380 kV grid
investments necessary,
albeit on a far smaller
scale compared to
Germany
•Considerable new
generation coming
on-line
•Large fleet of installed
centralised CCGTs
•Large coal fired plants
along the coast
•Profitability of many
plants at risk
•Little political support
for capacity market
•NL benefit hugely
from rapidGerman RES
development
•The largest “Dutch”
generators are not
actually Dutch
•No significant support
for large-scale RES
projects
•Netherlands are not on
course to meet Kyoto
GHG reduction targets
•A self-
imposed 2020
target of 6
GW of wind
capacity (on-
shore) looks
ambitious but achievable
• Moderate long-term
RES subsidies available
…if the underlying issues are quite similar?
How and why does the situation in the Netherlands differ…
The Netherlands –
Much Ado About Nothing?

12
Development of Non-energy Costs
Transmissie & distributie/ T&D
Energy tax/ Regulierende energie (REB)
Renewable surcharge/ Opslag duurzame energie (ODE)
35.00
30.00
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (F) 2015 (F)
14.00
10.78 10.99
13.30 14.00
11.09
11.29
15.43 16.14
11.50
0.40
0.71
11.73
16.95 17.79
11.96
1.22

13
Discounts &
exemptions
Self-generation Energy
efficiency
• REB: Discount on
highest tax band (REB)
via energy efficiency
benchmarks (MJA)
• REB: households and
cooperatives are eligible
for netting consumption
vs. production even for
off-site generation from
Jul-13 (up to 5 MWh/a)
• Other: No other
discounts e.g. on ODE
• CHP
• Avoid T&D costs and
taxes & levies on every
MWh produced
• Under current market
conditions new CHP
projects take long to
amortise
• Feasibility depends
very much on individual
circumstance
• Timing for new projects
may prove crucial
(changing legislation)
• Participation in energy
efficiency benchmarks
(MJA)
• EMS e.g. ISO 50001
• The cheapest MWh is
the one that is not being
consumed
What can one do…?
Mitigating Costs

14
Development of non-energy costs
A comparison of
Germany & the Netherlands

15
Conclusions
Markus Kraus
EU Operations Manager, EnergyQuote JHA
Ask an Expert
• Europe is not one homogeneous area in terms of
non-energy cost. Every single one of the 28 member
states has introduced national regimes, schemes, etc.
• Non-energy costs can be very high, sometimes
higher than the actual commodity price, and often
offer more opportunities for cost optimisation than the
area of actual procurement (markets, suppliers, etc.).
• Local knowledge is required to get the best out of
each and every market.
• In order to obtain certain rebates/discounts/
exemptions, the involvement of 3rd parties may
become necessary (e.g. lawyers, auditors, etc.).
• Some non-energy costs can be forecasted relatively
easily, whilst others are more difficult to budget for
effectively.
Click here

16
Managing Brazil’s
High Volatility Power Market
Managing Brazil’s High Volatility Power Market webinar.

17
Brazil’s power prices are volatile and driven by the rain...
BUT...
there are mitigation strategies to help manage your exposure
Managing Brazil’s
High Volatility Power Market
Brazilian Power Market
Open Market Entrance Barriers
• Open market represents 25% of
Brazilian power consumption and
around 60% is based on primary
and secondary industry sector.
• Free consumers represents
23% of Brazilian power
consumption and can procure
power produced by any source.
• Special consumers represents
2% of Brazilian power
consumption and receives a
50% or 100% discount on the
Distribution System Tariff.
• Brazilian
Power Market
• Short-Term
Perspectives
• Power Prices
Free Consumers Contracted Demand Supply Voltage
Special Consumers Contracted Demand Supply Voltage
Conected before July/1995
Conected after July/1995
≥ 3MW
≥ 3MW
≥ 69 kV
Any
Must purchase energy from
small hydros, biomass, wind or
solar plants.
≥ 0.5 MW Any

18
Generation Sources
Short Term Market Price (PLD)
• Hydro-Thermal power system with several run-of-
the-rivers plants. Generation capacity (120 GW) is
100% above average consumption (60 GW average).
Assured capacity 63 GW average.
• Hydro generation depends on conjuncture
conditions.
• Centralized and cost-bases dispatch. Expensive
sources are used under adverse hydrological
conditions.
• PLD is based on Operating Marginal Cost (OMC)
• Rain is the main power price driver, which means
spot prices are very volatile.
• OMC is established by a Independent System Oper-
ator (ONS) using a chain of computational models
(NEWAVE and DECOMP) developed to calculate the
optimal hydro-thermal dispatch.
Inflows
Storage Levels
Load Forecast
New Power Plants
Transmission
Risk Aversion Curve
Deficit Cost
NEWAVE
+
DECOMP
OMC/PLD
Initial Condition
Generation Capacity - 2012 Power Generation - 2012
Hydro
Natural Gas
Biomass
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Wind
Other
70%
9%
8%
6%
2%
2%
2%
1%
Hydro
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Biomass
Oil
Wind
Coal
Others
84%
6%
3%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%

19
Short Term Market Price (PLD)
• Spot prices are highly volatile and don’t provide a
clear economic signal for investors.
• Hydro systems are designed to ensure load supply
under adverse hydrological conditions, which occur
very infrequently.
• Most of the time there are temporary energy
surpluses, which result in very low marginal costs.
• In a very dry period, spot prices increase sharply.

20
• In an overview, the last rainy season was below the
historical average in the whole country.
• SE/CW: In May the precipitation was below the
historical average
• S: The precipitation in May was lower than in April.
• NE: The precipitation has been below the historical
average since Dec/12.
• N: In May/13 the precipitation was above the
historical average.
In March the precipitation was below the average in
SE/CW, NE and N regions
Short-Term Perspectives
Precipitation Anomaly – Jan/13
Precipitation Anomaly – Feb/13
Precipitation Anomaly – Apr/13
Precipitation Anomaly – Mar/13
Precipitation Anomaly – May/13

21
• yearly inflow occurs between
January and April.
• The National Interconnected
System (NIS) inflow was below
the historical average between
Ago/12 and Mar/13.
• From April to May the NIS inflow
decreased from 110% to 85%.
• Reservoirs has allowed the integration of renewable
electricity sources with seasonal production patterns.
• Due to environmental concerns, Brazil has been
projecting smaller hydro plants reservoir over the
years.
• The relationship between storage capacity and
consumption will decrease in the next years.
• Probability of ration plan is very small in 2014.
In April the inflow was above the average in the NIS
NIS stored energy has been the lowest for the last 10 years

22
• Available thermal capacity
is no higher than 14 GW and
represents 12% of the system
generation capacity or 24% of the
average consumption.
• Thermoelectric generation has
been extremely high in Brazil
since September/12.
• In Mar-13 the thermoelectric
generation was around 11,6 GW,
as a consequence of persistently
unfavorable hydrologic conditions
and low storage levels.
Thermal plants at full speed
• The Brazilian ISO (ONS) can order additional
dispatch of thermal generation in order to improve the
security of supply. This additional cost (PLD - thermal
plant cost) used to be paid by consumers through
a sectorial charge (ESS).
• Due to adverse hydrological conditions, ISO has
been ordering the dispatch of all available thermal
plants.
• ESS has reached R$ 25/MWh in Feb-13 (10% of the
total electricity cost).
• On the 8th of March the National Council for Energy
Policy (CNPE), trough the Resolution 03/2013,
tried to reduce this impact for consumers and ensure
that stop prices (PLD) will better reflect the real
dispatch.
• Up to Aug-2013, all players will pay 50% of
additional generation cost and buyers in short term
market at CCEE will pay the other 50%.
• In Aug-2013, CNPE expects that new PLD
methodology will better reflect the real dispatch.
Changes in the methodology of spot price (PLD)
Power Prices
11.6
GW

23
• Brazilian spot prices are very volatile and are driven
by the rain.
• Thermal generation will remain high.
• Considering the reservoirs levels and thermal
availability the probability of arationing plan is very
small in 2014.
• Quantify changes in PLD methodology is
impossible.
• Impacts in long term prices depends on the PLD
methodology.
• Lack of liquidity in power market, due to the high
volatile in spot prices and uncertain in PLD new
methodology.
Negotiations are basically over-the-counter
Conclusions
Vitor Atik
Account Executive, Ecom Energia
Ask an Expert
Click here

24
India, a Story of 3 Rs:
Regulation, Renewable & Reform
India - A Story of 3 Rs: Regulation, Renewables & Reform webinar.

25
Reform of India’s electricity market is incomplete…
BUT ...
it is possible to benefit from open access opportunities.
• GDP growth 5.1pc in FY 2011-12
• Electricity demand
growth 10-12pc/pa
(to 2017)
• Power deficits between 9 and
13pc
• Installed capacity 211,766 MW
(March ’13)
• Electrification 65pc
• State utility losses 200,000 Cr
($36bn) – Jan ’12
• T&D losses 28.4pc (FY 2012)
• Renewable Energy 12.2pc
of installed capacity, 4pc of
generated electricity
• Solar generation
target of 20 GW by
2020
• Long-term power market 90pc of
capacity (Jan ‘12)
• Foreign direct investment allowed
in generation, transmission and
distribution
• FDI of $1.25bn in FY 2010/11
(5.4pc of total sector investment)
• Private equity
investment of $2.1bn
in 2010 (46pc of total
PE)
• Two power exchanges – IEX and
PXIL
• 40 licensed traders
• Functional market for Renewable
Energy Certificates
• Record annual
capacity of 12.2 GW
commissioned in
2010/11
• Power market regulated by
CERC– Tariffs regulated by
regulatory commissions
(state and central)
• Competitive bidding for
tariff determination for power
procurement (excl. Hydro/RE)
• Return on equity of
around 15pc (+/-1pc)
allowed through tariff
determination
• Merchant power preferably
sold in short-term market (higher
prices)
• Downward price trend since
power exchanges established
• Special incentives for renewable
energy in Indian Electricity Grid
Code
• Spot power exchange prices
based on double-sided closed
auction
Overview-Power Sector
Generation and Generation Shares
Generation Generation Shares
State Sector
Central Sector
Private Sector
41%
30%
29%
Coal
Hydro
RES
Gas
Nuclear
Oil
57%
19%
12%
9%
2%
1%
15
pc

26
Interconnections and
Regional Loads
Interconnections
Regional Loads
• Deficit region
• Snow fed river
hydro
• Highly weather
sensitive load
• Adverse weather
conditions, fog and
dust storm
• Industrial &
agricultural load
• High load (40%
agricultural load)
• Monsoon dependant
hydro
• Low load
• High coal reserves
• Pit head base load
plants
• Very low load
• High hydro
potential
• Evacuation problems
• 2006-07 Capacity: 2080
• 2011-12 Capacity: 4180
• Requirement 2011-12: 1535
• 2006-07 Capacity: 4220
• 2011-12 Capacity: 13620
• Requirement 2011-12: 10559
• 2006-07 Capacity: 1760
• 2011-12 Capacity: 6660
• 2006-07 Capacity: 1680
• 2011-12 Capacity: 3780
• 2006-07 Capacity: 3120
• 2011-12 Capacity: 3620
• 2006-07 Capacity: 1240
• 2011-12 Capacity: 2840+3000

27
Gross utility generation
Power station consumption
Net utility generation
Purchases / imports
Net electricity for supply
Electricity sold
Transmission losses
FY 2011
GWh
Growth
FY 2010/11
CAGR
FY 1971/11
FY 2011 Growth CAGR
FY 2010/11 FY 1971/11
15.14
9.78
15.91
11.04
12.85
7.17
13.34
5.57
8.61
9.67
8.29
5.84
7.67
6.98
GWh pc
272,589
131,967
169,326
67,289
14,003
39,218
694,392
39,26
19
24.38
9.69
2.02
5.65
844,846
52,380
792,466
16,989
809,455
663,392
146,063
6.1
5.38
6.15
10.62
6.24
8.67
-3.57
6.85
7.35
6.82
14.5
6.87
6.86
6.95
Electricity Supply
Electricity Consumption
Industry
Agriculture
Domestic
Commercial
Rail / Transport
Other
TOTAL
Electricity Supply &
Consumption
– Tamil Nadu accounts
for a third of total RES,
followed by Maharashtra, U.P
and Andhra Pradesh
– Biomass availability
estimated at 540m tons/year that
can generate 16 GW
– Geothermal generation
potential
– Estimated renewable energy
potential from commercially
exploitableresources:
• wind (45 GW);
• Small Hydro (15 GW);
• Biomass/Bioenergy (25 GW)
– Solar potential
(pv and solar thermal)
– Average daily irradiation
Renewable Energy
largest installed wind capacity in the world

28
Wind Capacity
Wind capacity (2009-10) MW
Capacity Potential Potential
MW pc MW pc Realised (pc)
245.55
2,866.31
1,933.55
35.2
376.39
2,733.35
2,070.92
6,987.62
1.1
3.2
17,253.19
14.23
16.61
11.21
0.2
2.15
15.84
12
40.5
0.01
0.02
14,497
35,071
13,593
837
2,931
5,961
5,050
14,152
10,696
102,788
14.1
34.12
13.22
0.8
2.85
5.8
4.91
13.77
10.41
1.7
8.17
14.22
4.21
12.84
45.85
41
49.38
0.03
16.79
Wind capacity (2011-12)
Andhra Pradesh
Gujarat
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
West Bengal
Others
TOTAL
Rajasthan
Gujarat
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
West Bengal
Karnataka
Andhra Pradesh
Kerala
Tamil Nadu
1088.37
1863.64
229.39
2077.70
1.1
1472.75
136.05
27.75
4906.74

29
Solar Irradiation and
Geothermal Provinces
Reform
Solar Irradiation Geothermal Provinces
Pre-2003 Post-2003
6.6-6.4
6.4-6.2
6.2-6.0
6.0-5.8
5.8-5.6
5.6-5.4
5.4-5.2
5.2-5.0
5.0-4.8
4.8-4.6
4.6-4.4
kWh/sq.m. Heat River Values /Thermal Gradient
nW/m2 °C/Km
Puga
Manikaran
Tattapani Bakreswar
Jalgaon
Tuwa
Unai
72°
16°
20°
28°
32°
36°
76° 80° 84° 88°
Bay of BengalArabian Sea
HYMALAYA
HYMALAYA
DELHI
SOHANA
SONATA
CAMBAY
BOMBAY
WEST COAST
GODAVARI
MAHANADI
468/234
93/70
129/59
120/60 280/90
200/90
104/60
76-96
Regulated
Market
IPP IPPGenerator Generator
Transmission
Distribution
Bulk Supplier
Retail Supplier
Customer CustomerCustomer CustomerCustomer Customer
Transmission & Bulk Supply
Distribution & Retail Sales

30
Open Access Transactions
Bilateral
• a PPA is signed between buyer and seller, usually
facilitated by a trader for a margin;
Collective
• electricity is traded through an exchange (either IEX
or PXIL) by exchange members for a fixed margin
Open Access
– Long-term open access (LTOA) – allowed for a
period of 12 years to 25 years
Intra-state open access – SERC regulations are
followed with the same maturity
catregorisations as inter-state open access.
Open access threshold is 1 MW
Inter-state open access – CERC regulations are
followed with open access categorised as:
– Short-term open access (STOA) –allowed for a
period of less than a month
– Medium-term open access (MTOA) – allowed for a
period of 3 months to 3 years
Regulation
“Non-discriminatory provision for the use of transmission lines or distribution systems or associated facilities
with such lines or system by any licensee or consumer or a person engaged in generation in accordance with
the regulations specified by the Appropriate Commission”
Two types of transaction are possible:
Electricity Act, 2003:
Market Trading Structure
IPPs Other Generators Captive Generation
Customer Customer Customer
Distribution
Transmission
Power Ex Traders

31
Open Access Charges
Conclusions
Open Access Example
Additionally, consumers have to fulfill the renewable
purchase obligation, by purchasing a share of the
electricity from renewable generation.
5. WRLDC and SRLDC have to ascertain
transmission adequacy in their regional transmission
systems
6. All concerned require common understanding on
treating/sharing transmission losses and levy on
transmission/wheeling charges for the use of
intra-state and inter-state systems.
• Connectivity charges
• Transmission charges and losses
• Wheeling charges and losses
• Cross subsidy surcharge
• Local distribution company charges
Reform
good on paper, poor in practice
Infrastructure
investment required in generation
capacity, transmission and
distribution
Competition
cross-subsidies and non-cost
reflective tariffs constrain
market development
1. The company and distributor have to agree on
terms and conditions of sale
2. The company has to get the consent of MSEB and
“no objection” of MSERC
3. Distributor has to get consent of APTransco and
“no objection” of APSERC
4. MSLDC and APSLDC have to ascertain
transmission adequacy, and agree to metering,
scheduling, accounting and settlement
A company in Maharashtra wanting to sell 100 MW to a distributor in
Andhra Pradesh has to meet the following steps:
In addition to the power purchase cost the following costs are levied:
Jeremy Wilcox
Associate Consultant, EnergyQuote JHA
Ask an Expert
Click here

32
Philippines and Singapore
- Deregulation Opportunity
Philippines and Singapore - Deregulation Opportunity webinar.

33
Singapore’s electricity market is exposed to oil price risk…
BUT…
these risks can be effectively hedged
Singapore – Overview (2011)
Schedule
Petroleum products
Crude oil
Natural gas
• Market Fundamentals
• Regulation, Reform and Competition
• Opportunities
• Market Fundamentals
• Open Access
Gas
Petroleum products
Other
Commerce / Services
Industrial / Goods
Other
105.8
46.3
8.1
66.0
28.9
5.1
78.0
18.4
3.6
69.0
26.6
4.4
Mtoe pc
pc
pc
Energy imports: 160.2mtoe
Singapore Philippines
Generation Output: 46TWh
GDP: S$326.8bn

34
Overall
Industry
Commerce
Households
Transport
Other
Contestable
Industry
Commerce
Transport
Other
37.709
14.727
14.296
6.514
1.653
519
41.021
16.530
15.094
6.718
2.145
535
41.725
16.775
15.653
6.560
2.278
459
40.2
37.5
15.7
5.5
1.1
25.153
13.944
9.609
1.526
74
27.804
15.495
10.230
2.006
73
28.214
15.584
10.460
2.126
74
55.2
37.1
7.5
0.2
2009 2009 2010 2010(pc)
Electricity Sales, GWh
Regulation Timescale
Electricity Industry Structure
Vertically integrated &
government owned through the
Public Utilities Body (PUB)
PUB transfers gas and electricity
activities to Temasek Holdings,
which creates a holding company
for generation, transmission and
market services companies.
Energy Market Authority created
to regulate the market; Energy
Market Company formed as EMA
subsidiary to operate Singapore
Electricity Pool. Liberalisation
process commences.
National Electricity Market of
Singapore (NEMS) formed.
Contestable threshold at
10,000kWh/month.
Contestability threshold will be
lowered to full retail contestability
in two phases.
Generator
Grid Company
Market Support Services Licensee Electricity Retailers
Non-Contestable Customers Contestable Customers
1995
pre

35
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
100.0
141.4
127.9
196.6
134.5
167.3
192.2
100.0
119.4
114.4
144.5
116.0
133.0
147.2
HSFO Tariff
YTL PowerSeraya
SembCorp Cogen
PacificLight Power
Keppel Merlimau Cogen
Tuas Power Generation
Shell Eastern Petroleum (C)
Senoko Waste to Energy
Senoko Energy
ExxonMobil Asia Pacific (C)
Keppel Seghers Tuas Waste to Energy Plant
Tuaspring
TP Utilities
Singapore Refining Company (C)
Keppel Electric
SembCorp Power
Tuas Power Supply
Senoko Energy Supply
Seraya Energy
PacificLight Energy
Diamond Energy
Hyflux Energy
Biofuel Industries
Pfizer Asia Pacific
Banyan Utilities
ISK Singapore
Singapore Oxygen Air Liquide
MSD International
Green Power Asia
Singpaore LNG Corporation
CGNPC Solar-Biofuel Power (Singapore)
Eco Special Waste Manufacturing
Glaxo Wellcome Manufacturing
Diamond Energy
Air Products Singapore
Chesterfield Manufacturing
Generation:
HSFO / Tariff indexation:
Retailers:
Wholesaler (Generation):
Wholesaler
(Interruptible Load Service):
Electricity Market Participants
Pricing & Tariff Breakdown
Energy Costs
Grid Charges
Services*
Admin**
TOTAL
* Market support services fee
** Power system operations and market administration fees
11.8
5.5
0.3
0.1
17.7
15.3
5.4
0.3
0.1
21.1
14.5
5.4
0.3
0.1
20.2
19.9
5.2
0.3
0.1
25.5
15.3
4.9
0.3
0.1
20.5
18.3
4.9
0.2
0.1
23.5
20.9
4.8
0.2
0.1
26.0
05 06 07 08 09 10 11Tariff Breakdown

36
Electricity Price
Case Study
Electricity Price, 28 May 2013
(S$/MWh)
Tariff History
(¢/kWh)
• Remain with SP Services
• Buy electricity from an electricity retailer
• Buy electricity directly from the wholesale market
as a market participant
• Buy electricity indirectly from the wholesale market
through SP Services
Manufacturing company operates a 12-hour day
between 0900 and 2100 hours, that leaves it fully
exposed to peak rates.
It is not economically feasible for company to change
its operating hours to benefit from some off-peak
rates.
Tariffs reflect the various risk/reward profiles of cus-
tomers and their environmental conscience.
• Fixed full day tariff
• Flexi tariff (peak, off-peak and mid-peak periods)
• Indexed tariff (against HSFO and/or FX)
• Green tariff
Enter into a customized flexi-tariff where peak rate is
increased with the peak period reduced so as to
enable the company to benefit from some off-peak
supply
Contestable Customer Options
Problem:
Tariff Options
Solution:
Contestable Customer
Options & Tariff Options

37
Time Tier Rate Consumption Cost Time Tier Rate Consumption Cost
0000-0700
0700-2300
2300-2400
220
260
220
0
150
0
390.00
0000-0700
0700-1900
1900-2400
220
265
220
0
125
25
331.25
55.00
Without customization:
TOTAL TOTAL390.00 386.25
With Customization:
Philippines
Oil-based
Hydropower
Geothermal
Coal
Gas
Renewables
TOTAL
Installed Capacity (MW):
2.994
3.491
1.783
4.917
2.861
117
3.193
3.400
1.966
4.867
2.861
73
3.193
3.291
1.953
4.227
2.831
64
16.162 16.359 15.610
2011 2010 2009
Philippines – Fundamentals
Coal
Diesel
Gas
Geothermal
Hydropower
Renewables
49.85
0.23
35.59
7.65
6.67
0.01
45.42
3.04
0.00
50.33
0.17
1.04
18.30
17.29
0.00
7.94
56.47
0.00
Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Regional Generation Mix (pc)
Generation mix as of March 2013
2011 generation output (GWh): Luzon, 50,017; Visayas 10,456; Mindanao 8,703

38
Hydropower
Geothermal
Wind
Other RE
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Others
Population (m)
Power demand (pc share)
Private distribution utilities
Electric cooperatives
Own use*
System Loss
TOTAL
TOTAL Sales
TOTAL Sales
5.468
3.131
548
131
58.9
33.8
5.9
1.4
1.997
1.348
431
131
13,558,194
13,975,287
13,975,287
779,129
2,526,694
1,324,240
3,037,863
335,571
2,608,658
1,324,308
2,902,455
331,557
49.8
77.0
10
58
17.2
12.0
4
31
21.6
11.0
6
39
4,113,775
5,144,668
996,146
1,287,799
288,559
1,247,112
9.278 3.907
41,706,246 7,224,369 7,166,977
50,964,688 9,508,314 8,702,648
MW pc vs. 2011 (MW)
Renewable Capacity
Sales & Consumption
Distribution Summary
Planned capacity, 2013:
* Own use includes distribution utilities and generation plant
• Luzon – Visayas 400 MW
• Largest Visayas islands of Cebu, Negros, Panay,
Bohol, Leyte and Samar are interconnected
• Mindanao – Leyte (Visayas) interconnection planned
Interconnector Capacity:

39
Bohol Light Company (BCLI)
Dagupan Electric Corporation (DECORP)
Manila Electric Company (MERALCO)
Subic Enerzone Corporation (SEZ)
Visayan Electric Company (VECO)
Bohol
Dagupan
Manila Metro
Subic Bay Freeport Zone
Cebu
Visayas
Luzon
Luzon
Luzon
Visayas
Franchise Area Grid
Open Access
Conclusions
• Contestable customers are those with a minimum
monthly average peak demand of 1 MW
for the preceding 12 months.
Two supply options:
• Local Retail Electricity Supply (RES) company
non-regulated business division of distribution utilities
authorized to supply contestable customers
in their franchise area;
• Open access transition period ends 25 June 2013.
• Retail Electricity Supply companies
companies authorized by the ERC to
sell, broker, market or aggregate electricity
to contestable customers
Aboitiz Energy Solutions
Adventenergy
Cabanatuan Electric Corporation
DirectPower Services
Ecozone Power Management Ferro Energy
First Gen Energy Solutions
Global Energy Supply Corporation GN Power
GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant Corporation
Kratos
Masinloc Power Partners
Premier Energy Resources Corporation
PRISM Energy
San Miguel Electric Corporation
SEM-Calaca, SN Aboitiz Power TEAM Philippines
Energy Corporation
Trans-Asia Oil and Energy Development
Local RES companies:
RES Companies:
Efficient liberalised electricity market which would
benefit from a competitive gas market
Significant competitive market potential which will
benefit from infrastructure investment
Singapore Philippines
Jeremy Wilcox
Associate Consultant, EnergyQuote JHA
Ask an Expert
Click here

40
The Impact of U.S. Exports on
Energy Markets
United States - Impact of Fuel Exports on Domestic Prices webinar.

41
The export of natural gas presents a potential rebalancing agent…
BUT…
the delta between U.S. and EU/Asia prices continues to shrink
Natural Gas Supply
2007 2012
The U.S. supply landscape has changed dramatically over the past
five years, with domestic production rising and imports falling
52.8 Bcf/day 83% 65.7 Bcf/day 94%

42
• With domestic production expected to continue to rise throughout
the next 10 years, the U.S. is moving toward becoming a net exporter
of natural gas by 2020
Source: EIA
LNG Exports Update
• In early May, Freeport LNG Export was granted
Department of Energy Approval to export
domestically-sourced to non-FTA countries
- Freeport’s 1.4 Bcf per day facility still needs to pass
an environmental test and receive FERC approval
before construction
- DOE approval was the first since Sabine Pass was
cleared last year
• Sabine Pass secured financing for Trains 3 & 4 and
immediately began construction
• Sabine Pass filed for the approval of two additional
trains (5 & 6) that would add about 1.2 Bcf per day of
additional capacity
• Two additional facilities have gained preliminary
approval in Western Canada totaling 3.3 Bcf per day
on top of Kitimat’s already-approved 1.3 Bcf per day
facility
- Canadian LNG exports could have residual impacts
on the U.S. landscape

43
• Of the 27.5 Bcf per day of export capacity that has been proposed in
the United States, only 3.6 Bcf per day has been granted DOE approval
Source: Platts *Freeport is still awaiting environmental review and FERC approval
Sabine Pass
Freeport*
SP Trains 5&6
Cambridge
Cameron
Cove Point
Gulf Coast LNG
South Texas
Corpus Christi
Elba Island
Golden Pass
Gulf LNG Clean Energy
Jordon Cove
Lavaca Bay
Magnolia LNG
Maine Pass Energy
Oregon LNG Export
Trunkline Lake Charles
Waller
Terminal
2.2
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.7
0.7
2.8
1.0
1.8
0.3
2.0
1.5
0.9
1.3
1.0
3.1
1.3
2.0
0.2
Approved
Applied
Applied
Applied
Applied
Applied
Applied
Applied
Proposed
Proposed
Proposed
Proposed
Proposed
Proposed
Proposed
Proposed
Proposed
Proposed
Proposed
Capacity (Bcf per Day) Status

44
Global Price Disparity
LNG exports to Europe and Asia are still profitable, but when taking
into account liquefaction and shipping charges, the margins have
declined over the past 12 months
Henry Hub Gas Price
+ $2.50 Liquefaction
+ $0.60 Fuel
+ $1.00 Shipping (Europe)
+ $2.80 Shipping (Asia)
Source: Platts
LNG Exports Likely Outcome
• The U.S. will likely end up with 6-7 Bcf per day of
LNG export capacity by the end of this decade
- This new demand is one of several “rebalancing
agents” that will help to relieve oversupply in the
natural gas market
• LNG exports are supportive of deferred natural gas
futures prices
- This has already been demonstrated
on the forward curve
- U.S. export capacity will not bring parity to global
natural gas prices, but will likely help provide a level
of relief to end users in Europe and Asia
• Additional approvals for LNG export facilities face
significant risks and roadblocks
- Regulatory approval for new facilities
will remain difficult to obtain
- Shifting global market dynamics pose uncertainty
for long-term projects
- Large capital investment provides
high barrier to entry

45
Pipeline Exports to Mexico
With production booming in Texas, natural gas exports to Mexico
have nearly tripled from 2007 levels
• New pipeline projects under construction
would nearly double export capacity to Mexico
• Norte Crossing project has already been completed,
adding 0.37 Bcf per day of capacity
– or nearly 10 percent of 2012 levels
• Mexican production has remained stagnant,
but the nation hopes to develop
potential shale resources in the future

46
Canadian Imports Falling
• Rising domestic production in areas near the Cana-
dian border has diminished the need for natural gas
imports via pipeline from Canada
• Imports are likely to continue to decline as Marcellus
production is brought to market in the U.S.

47
Conclusions
•The U.S. is on track to become a net exporter
of natural gas by the end of the decade
•Approved LNG export facilities will potentially
be up and running within the next 2-4 years,
with more projects in the planning stages
•Exports to Mexico are growing rapidly,
while imports from Canada continue to fall
•Combined with other growing demand sectors
– namely power generation and industrial –
natural gas exports are likely to be supportive
of pricing, even as production continues higher
Andy Huenefeld
Market Analyst, Fellon-McCord
Ask an Expert
Click here

48
Europe’s rising non-energy costs
• Europe is not one homogeneous area in terms of
non-energy cost. Every single one of the 28 member
states has introduced national regimes, schemes, etc.
• Non-energy costs can be very high, sometimes
higher than the actual commodity price, and often
offer more opportunities for cost optimisation than the
area of actual procurement (markets, suppliers, etc.).
• Local knowledge is required to get the best out of
each and every market.
• In order to obtain certain rebates/discounts/
exemptions, the involvement of 3rd parties may
become necessary (e.g. lawyers, auditors, etc.).
• Some non-energy costs can be forecasted relatively
easily, whilst others are more difficult to budget for
effectively.
Managing Brazil’s High Volatility
Power Market
• Brazilian spot prices are very volatile and are driven
by the rain.
• Thermal generation will remain high.
• Considering the reservoirs levels and thermal
availability the probability of rationing plan is very
small in 2014.
• Quantify changes in PLD methodology is impossible.
• Impacts in long term prices depend on the PLD
methodology.
• Lack of liquidity in power market, due to the high
volatile in spot prices and uncertain in PLD new
methodology.
India, a story of 3 Rs: Regulation,
Renewable & Reform
• Reform - good on paper, poor in practice.
• Infrastructure - investment required in generation
capacity, transmission and distribution.
• Competition - cross-subsidies and non-cost
reflective tariffs constrain market development.
Philippines and Singapore -
Deregulation Opportunity
• Philippines - significant competitive market potential
which will benefit from infrastructure investment.
• Singapore - efficient liberalised electricity market
which would benefit from a competitive gas market.
The Impact of U.S. Exports on
Energy Markets
• The U.S. is on track to become a net exporter of
natural gas by the end of the decade.
• Approved LNG export facilities will potentially be
up and running within the next 2-4 years, with more
projects in the planning stages.
• Exports to Mexico are growing rapidly, while imports
from Canada continue to fall.
• Combined with other growing demand sectors –
namely power generation and industrial – natural gas
exports are likely to be supportive of pricing, even as
production continues higher.
Global Energy Market Conclusions

49
Forthcoming Events
17-18 September, 2013
Louisville, KY USA
Fellon-McCord’s Energy Vision is a two-day supply-
side energy seminar meant for energy professionals
managing the supply of power or natural gas in North
America. Sessions are offered on both commodities,
as well as other special interest topics.
2-3 October, 2013
London, UK
EnergyQuote JHA’s Price Forecasting Service
provides an intelligent and insightful outlook on
energy prices from some of the leading industry
experts during a two day conference which takes
place twice a year.
24 October, 2013
Berlin, Germany
The country specific workshop will give energy buyers
and procurement directors the chance to identify
techniques to measure price volatility, analyse key
regulatory and energy price drivers, and forecast
future energy trends.
Click here for more details
Click here for more details
• Energy Vision – Fall 2013
• Energy Price Forecasting Conference
• German Energy Buyers’ Workshop Click here for more details

50
Audio Recordings
Please click on the image below to view the recording of the
United States - Impact of Fuel Exports on Domestic Prices webinar.
Philippines and Singapore - Deregulation Opportunity webinar.
India - A Story of 3 Rs: Regulation, Renewables & Reform webinar.
Managing Brazil’s High Volatility Power Market webinar.
Europe’s Rising Non-Energy Costs webinar.

Contact us
For more information and to find out
how we can help your business, please contact us.
T +1 866 718 6441
E info@fellonmccord.com
www.fellonmccord.com
T +44 (0)20 7605 2300
E events@energyquote.com
www.energyquote.com
T +55 (11) 2185 9500
E ecomenergia@ecomenergia.com.br
en.ecomenergia.com.br
Fellon-McCord
EnergyQuote JHA
Ecom Energia
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EnergyQuote JHA, Fellon-McCord and Ecom Energia (together “the Owner”) do not accept any responsibility
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