by Gary Golden

1. A21 stCentury Roadmap:
The Future of Infrastructure
Presented by: Garry Golden

2. Confronting
Constraints
Fuel Production,
‘Grid’ Dynamics
& Limits to ‘Go’

3. Peak Production of
Conventional Oil

5. Critical Assumption #1: Oil Field Discovery

6. Critical Assumption #2: Geopolitical Stability

7. Critical Assumption #3: Non-Conventional Growth

8. 21st Century Challenges
‘The Grid’
Critical Assumptions
Bigger Smarter Plugging In
Is Better is Better Matters

9. 21st Century Challenges
Mobility
Critical Assumptions
Human Transit Ownership
Behavior is Better Matters

10. 21st Century Vision
Enabling
Innovation

11. Incremental & Transformational Changes to Infrastructure
Incremental Innovation
Within an Era
versus
Transformational
Innovation
Across New Eras

12. ?
Performance over time Plateau of Change
S-Curve Shape of ‘Mainstreaming’
‘Major’ & ‘Minor’ Eras
Disruptions
Rapid Change lead to Next Era!!!
‘Accelerating’
Slow Change
‘Emerging’

13. Eras of Planes
/Rockets
Mobility
Cars
Rail
Boats What is next?
•Autonomous
Vehicles
Human / Animals
•Sub-orbital

14. Monitoring Slow Change Phase of Development
2050
‘Driver to Captain’
Software Supported
Systems
2025
2020
2004 2007 2010 2015

15. Eras of
Silicon
Manufacturing
Plastics
Copper Bronze
Iron-Steel
What is next?
Clay
•Carbon Materials
Stone
Wood (Nanoscale)
•Biomaterials

16. Functionalization: 2050
Active Nanostructures
Characterization: Functionalization:
Passive Nanostructures Passive Nanostructures 2030
2025
1990 2009 2010

17. 21st Century Nano-Materials for Energy
Nanoparticles Nanotubes Nanosheets
(Graphene)
Production – Transmission – Storage - Management
– Fuel Storage – Conversion

18. Social Media
Eras of
Communication
Broadcast Media
Machine-to-
One-to-One Machine
‘M2M’

19. ‘Minor’ Eras of Communication
Learning
Systems
Cloud
Computing
Linked
‘Smart’ Data
Pre-’Web’ Web 1.0 Web 2.0 Web 3.0
Broadcast Era Info Portal Social Web Services

20. The ‘Era’ Evolution of Data’s Value Chain
Prescriptive
What should happen?
Predictive
What might happen?
Descriptive
What has happened?

21. Energy
Systems
Future
Transportation
Present & Mobility

22. Eras for Energy & Fuels Market
$500 M
Investment
‘Extracting’ Reserves ‘Growing’ Energy
(Geosciences) (Biosciences/Materials Design)

23. Eras for Power Generation
Bigger…
Smarter…
Integrated…
Central Power Plants
& Fuel Markets Stranded…

24. Rise (and Return) of Distributed Power Generation
Distributed Power Generation
Infrastructure-based Natural Gas

25. Every Object is a Power Plant?
Rise (and Return) of Distributed Power Generation
Portable Fuels & Micro Energy

26. Fuel Cells 101
Electrochemical Device Magic Material
(Hydrogen plus Oxygen = Energy)
(Membrane Electrode Assembly)

27. Market Signals of Smart & Distributed Transitions
2050
2030
2020
2015
2008 2009 2010

28. Possible Future:
Consumers start to ‘unplug’ as devices and appliances
contain their own embedded power systems?
‘Unplugging’ Power Plants ‘Retail Packets’
Beyond the Grid $1 $10 Solid Hydrogen /
$100 $1000 Liquid Fuels

29. A More Likely & Favorable Future for Utilities
Distributed Power = Micro Grids

30. Questions
&
Discussion
Garry Golden
http://www.garrygolden.net
garrygolden@gmail.com
347-463-7412

31. 2010
Year One
Infrastructure Implications:
Electrification of World’s Auto Fleet

32. What powers an ‘electric’ car?
A. Batteries B. Hydrogen C. Capacitors
Fuel Cells

33. Infrastructure: Electricity-Hydrogen
‘Plug in’ Battery EVs Integrated Fuel cell EVs
•Utility Controlled •Energy Majors (‘Big Oil’)
•Fixed Access points •Portable ‘Molecule’ Fuels spectrum:
•Fleet Vehicles NatGas, Biofuels, H2 (Solid, Gas, Liquid)
•Mass Markets

34. Why are they going ‘electric’?
A. Changing B. Changing
Climate Business
Models

35. Vehicle Electrification
Carbon Footprint
Manufacturing Footprint

36. 2000s
‘Plateau’
1950-90s Era of
‘Accelerating’ Combustion Engine
1920s
‘Emerging’

37. Global Auto Industry Imperative:
Transform Manufacturing

38. EV Manufacturing / After Market
Business Case for Electric Age
Automakers Driver Experience
•Lower Manufacturing cost •Telematics / Driver Support
(Wheel based motors) (Software-Services)
(Drive by Wire) •Lower Operating Cost

39. Radicals: Open Source Hardware & Low Volume Builds
‘Mass Assembly’ to ‘Mass Customization’

40. 21st Century ‘Fleets’ for Transit & On-Demand Solutions
Business Model Innovations
• Intermodal Solutions
‘Last Mile’ Connections
• Urban On-Demand
Point to Point Service
New Fleet Vision for Transit
• Smaller Highway Footprint
Transforming Capacity

41. Questions
&
Discussion
Garry Golden
http://www.garrygolden.net
garrygolden@gmail.com
347-463-7412

42. Infrastructure vs Infrastructure Experience
Engineering User Experience
Transportation (Transit) Software for
Information Services Human Performance
More Social & Transparent ‘Growing with Flow’

43. Infrastructure Experience
Web-oriented Infrastructure Experience
Anonymous Web …. to a more Social Web
1998 2008

44. While on the road, only my
friends know that I’m a dog!
Civic Culture adapting to
Networked Infrastructure on the go…

45. Infrastructure Experience
What We Don’t Know About Infrastructure Use
Simulated vs ‘Natural Data’

46. How do we enable new behavior based on
data-driven transportation experiences
and business models?
DIKW Spectrum
Data – Information – Knowledge – Wisdom

47. Changing Infrastructure Behavior
via “Gaming Mechanics”
•Rules & Rewards
•Challenges & Goals
•Badges & Recognition
(Stages of Mastery)
•Reputation Management
•Teamwork & Strategy
Goal: Advance from Novice to Master Level Skills

48. Teaching Infrastructure Systems
via Gaming Mechanics
User Base
•80 million Monthly
•30 million Daily
Demographic
•Female
(35-50 years old)

49. Changing Behavior & Infrastructure Optimization
via Gaming Mechanics
Leaderboards, Points, and Status

50. Plausible Future:
Every infrastructure component & user
has a ranking & reputation based on performance?
A Transparent & Accountable ‘Pay as you…’ World?

51. Questions
&
Discussion
Garry Golden
http://www.garrygolden.net
garrygolden@gmail.com
347-463-7412

52. Data & Business Models for enabling: ‘Driver’ to ‘Captain’
Prescriptive
Predictive
Descriptive

53. Value Capture vs. Value Creation
Eras for Infrastructure & Engineering Industry
Engineering Designing Systems
‘Build’ with Steel & Concrete ‘Dynamic Management’
Software/Sensors & Services

54. The Big Picture Transition
20th Century Dynamics 21st Century Dynamics
of Central Grid of ‘Smart’ & Distributed
Power Production Networked Energy Systems

55. Carbon-based
Infrastructure
“Bridge in Backpack”

56. Building Things! Nanoscale Era of Infrastructure
Nanostructured Materials:
• Spectrum of Applications
(e.g. Maintenance/Preservation)
• Lifecycle Impact/Testing
• Industry Partnerships
(e.g. Reducing Vehicle Weight/Impact)
• Roadmap Development
Exploring Transformative Performance Properties
• Mechanical • Chemical • Thermal
• Electrical • Sensing • Dispersion

57. Nanotechnology Resources
Primary Nanotube Production Automotive Nano-Integrators
Other Players:
Arkema, Catalyx Nanotech, Clariant, Hanwha Nanotech Corporation, Honeywell
(Aegis), Hyperion Catalysis International, Nanocyl, Nanoledge, Raymor Industries,
Inc., Rosseter Holdings, Shenzhen Nanotech Port, Showa Denko, SouthWest
NanoTechnologies, Inc., Sun Nanotech.

58. Powering Go! Era of Electrification
• Assessing Full Impact
• Future-proofing Infrastructure
(e.g. Plug-in & Molecule Fuels)
• Industry / Sector-based Partnerships
(e.g. Fleets; Freight )
• Assessing Discontinuities
(e.g. Urban Pod Form Factor)
• Leveraging Digitally-enabled Users
(Grow with Flow; ‘Captains’)

59. The Future of Civicware & Engagement?

60. Civicware & Policy Simulation via Gaming Mechanics