Presentation on demographics, housing, and labor force trends delivered to Essex County Assessors Association on October 25, 2017

1. The Numbers Shaping
Metro Boston’s
Housing and Economic Future
Tim Reardon
Director of Data Services
Metropolitan Area Planning Council
Essex County Assessors Association
October 26, 2017

2. 49%
Baby Boomer share of
Massachusetts workers

3. (300,000)
(200,000)
(100,000)
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
Numberoflaborforceentrants/(exits)
Birth Year
Net Labor Force Change by Year of Birth,
2015 to 2030, Massachusetts
980,000 workers
born before 1970
may retire/move
by 2030
1.1 million
younger workers
projected to join
labor force
Source: MAPC Population Projections, 2014

4. 680,000
Number of working
households expected to
form between 2015 and
2030 in a growing
economy

5. -
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Projected New Worker Households
by Income, Massachusetts, 2015-30
Above 200% Extremely High
200% Very High
150% Moderately High
120% Upper Middle
100% Lower Middle
80% Low Income
50% Very Low Income
30% Extremely Low Income
198,000
of new working
households
expected to be
low-income
(30% of total)
Two-thirds of
workers expected
to be heads of
households
Source: MAPC Population Projections, 2014

6. Baby Boomers in Labor
Force
declines 70%
Boomer-headed
households
drop only 13%
1,243, 000
866,000
380,0000
749,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Baby Boomer Workers and Households
2010 – 2030, Metro Boston
2010
2030 (Status Quo)

7. Long-term economic growth requires
435,000 new units in Metro Boston by 2040
155,000
6,000
91,000
178,000
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Total Net Housing Demand, by Type,
Metro Boston, 2010 - 2040
Multi-Family -Rent
Multi-Family -Own
Single Family -Rent
Single Family -Own
Source: MAPC Population Projections, 2014

8. 43,300
units
Gap in production vs
projected demand since
2010, Metro Boston

9. 64,700
41,300
48,600
28,700
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Projected Demand (pro
rated)
Permitted Units,
2010-2016
Projected Demand vs. Permitted Units
2010 - 2016, Metro Boston
Single family
Multifamily
New multifamily units
meeting only
64% of projected
demand
Single family meeting
only 59% of projected
demand

11. We are building less than we used to
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
Annual Housing Production in Massachusetts by
Decade
Multifamily Single Family
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permit Survey

12. 28%
Percent of home sales
affordable to a middle income
family (2014-2015)
*Area includes all MA Towns part of the Boston MSA
Source: ULI, Building for the
Middle: Housing Greater
Boston’s Workforce, 2016

13. Only 21% of
single family sales
were accessible to
middle-income
households
14,676
14,514
53,615
22,398
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Property Transactions by Unit
Type and Affordability
2014-2015
Condo- Not Affordable
Single Family- Not Affordable
Condo- Affordable
Single Family- Affordable
Less than 40% of
condo sales were
accessible to
middle-income
households
Source: ULI, Building for the
Middle: Housing Greater
Boston’s Workforce, 2016

14. In dozens of suburbs,
fewer than 10% of sales
are affordable to a
middle income family
Majority of the region’s
affordable transactions
were in Regional Urban
Centers

15. Creeping Cost Burden
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Extremely Low-Income Very Low-Income Low-Income Lower Middle-Income Upper Middle-Income High-Income
Change in Housing Cost Burden by Income Group
Metro Boston, 1990 to2014
Cost Burdened 2014
Cost Burdened 1990

16. Finding housing in the Boston metro area
has become a “workaround”
Long commutes
Roommates
Living with parents

17. Will housing costs
overshadow our
competitive
advantages?
Not only did Boston lose on
domestic net migration
from 2015-2016, we lost
people directly to some of
our top innovation economy
competitors

18. Housing costs already having an impact
Northeastern University survey (April 2017)
Over 2/3 of employers surveyed claim home prices and rental costs have
affected their ability to recruit qualified candidates.
The Boston Foundation poll (June 2017)
80 percent of respondents feel that Greater Boston is becoming increasingly
unaffordable for middle class families.
MassEcon report (March 2017)
“High housing costs and housing availability are a major concern of
businesses looking to expand or relocate in Massachusetts.”

19. $20,000
Gap in neighborhood income
between middle class Black and
White families
Source: MAPC State of Equity Report, 2016

20. Mortgages by Race, 2015
Sources: Federal Financial Institutions Examination
Council HMDA data, Massachusetts Community &
Banking Council, MAPC Analysis

21. Source: Massachuse-s Community & Banking Council h-p://mcbc.info/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/CP23-Infographic.pdf

22. 42,775 square feet
Average lot size of a single family
home built in Essex County since
2000

23. 210 cities and towns have gone for a decade or longer
without permitting any multifamily housing of 5+ units

24. 68%
Percent of Massachussetts
municipal school districts
that saw a decline in
enrollment from 2010-2016
Does not include regional districts, charter districts, or districts

25. Source: Massachusetts Department
of Elementary and Secondary
Education, MAPC Analysis

26. -35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
SchoolDistrictEnrollmentChange
(as%of2010enrollment)
Housing Unit Change (as % of 2010 Units)
Percent School Enrollment Change vs Housing Unit Change
by Community Type, Massachusetts Municipal School Districts, 2010-2016
Inner Core
Regional Urban Centers
Maturing Suburbs
Developing Suburbs
Rural Towns
Source: Massachusetts Department
of Elementary and Secondary
Education, Census Building Permit
Survey, MAPC Analysis
The permits don’t create the pupils:
no correlation between housing growth and enrollment change

27. 26%
Vacancy rate of on-site parking
spaces at multifamily
properties in the Inner Core

28. Surveyed 126 multifamily properties
Conducted overnight parking counts at 80
multifamily properties
4,511 parking spaces counted, serving
3,913 housing units
1,187 unused parking spaces
356,100 sq ft of empty space

30. 351
number of cities and towns
with a role to play solving the
problem

31. Mixed-income multifamily housing
Olympia Oaks, Amherst
One Greenway, ChinatownCutler Heights, Holliston

32. Mixed-Use and Transit-Oriented Development
Cambridge apartments with first floor retail
Hingham Shipyard

33. Accessory Dwelling Units
North Shore
home with
attached ADU
Plan for detached
ADU in Washington
DC
Detached ADU in Northampton, MA

34. Accurate data is critical for effective regional planning

35. Massachusetts Land Parcel Database
• Regional planning
• Homeland security
coordination
• Climate adaptation
plans
• Energy efficiency
planning
• Value capture
estimation
• State permits and
programs

36. Thank you
Tim Reardon
Director of Data Services
treardon@mapc.org | www.mapc.org