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Tim O’Reilly
Agile Governance
2
What the great technology platforms
teach us about the future of work,
business, and the economy.
wtfeconomy.com
3
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If we want to understand the future of business and the
economy, we have to understand these platforms
5
We are all living and working inside a machine
6
It’s no longer happening just in the digital realm
7
An Amazon warehouse is a human-machine hybrid
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It makes things like this possible
68 million monthly users
440,000 employees
336 million monthly active users
~3400 emp...
10
“Gradually, then suddenly”
Ernest Hemingway
11
Gradually, then suddenly
Artificial Intelligence and algorithmic
systems are everywhere, in new
kinds of partnerships w...
12
“The hope is that, in not too many years, human
brains and computing machines will be coupled
together very tightly, an...
13
We are building a global brain, composed of all of us,
augmented and connected by technology.
Central banks are respons...
14
Government is also a platform!
15
So are financial markets
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Delivery-driven Policy
“This isn’t just how we should be
developing software. It’s how we should
be developing policy.”...
19
New skillsets are needed
• User Centered Design
• DevOps
• Site Reliability Engineering
• Data Science
• Deep Learning
...
20
“My grandfather wouldn’t
recognize what I do as
work.”
Hal Varian,
Google Chief Economist
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Many of today’s workers are programs.
Developers are actually their managers.
Every day, they are inspecting the
perfor...
23
A new kind of management
“It’s the difference between ‘playing
Caesar’ (deciding which projects live and
die), and ‘pla...
24
Software has become a set of
ongoing business processes, not an artifact
25
The lessons of technology are also lessons
for the organization of the business
“Services not only represent a software...
26
“Doing digital is not the same as being
digital.”
Josh Bersin
Deloitte
27
Internet-scale networked platforms managed by
algorithm are fundamentally changing the economic
equation and the very n...
28
Gradually, then suddenly
Large segments of the economy
are governed not by free markets
but by centrally managed platfo...
29
The invisible hand at work
30
What happens when there’s only one queue?
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Amazon.com
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And what happens when there’s
only one price for everything?
35
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Algorithms decide “who gets what – and why”
Markets are outcomes. A better designed
marketplace can have better outcome...
37
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“In an information-rich world, the wealth of
information means a dearth of something else:
a scarcity of whatever it is...
39
Algorithms have become a battleground
Security: “That word does not
mean what you think it means.”
40
Users post 7 billion pieces of content to
Facebook a day.
Expecting human fact checkers to catch
fake news is like aski...
41
Real Time Digital Regulatory Systems
• Google search quality
• Social media feed organization
• Email spam filtering
• ...
42
Government and central bank statistics, economic
modeling, and regulations are too slow for the pace and
scale of the m...
43
“Why is policy still educated
guesswork with a feedback
loop measured in years?”
Tom Loosemore,
Former Deputy Director,...
44
Governance in the age of algorithms
• Must focus on outcomes, not on rules.
• Must operate at the speed and scale of th...
45
Managing an algorithm
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Algorithmic systems have an “objective function”
• Google: Relevance
• Facebook: Engagement
• Uber and Lyft: Passenger ...
47
When platforms get their algorithms wrong, there can be serious
consequences!
When platforms get
their objective functi...
48
Like the djinn of Arabian mythology, our digital djinni
do exactly what we tell them to do
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50
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Divergence of productivity
and real median family income in the US
52
“The art of debugging is figuring
out what you really told your
program to do rather than what
you thought you told it ...
53
Are the FED’s “algorithms” having the intended effect?
Have the goals of central banks been captured by the
equivalent ...
54
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The runaway objective function
“Even robots with a seemingly benign
task could indifferently harm us. ‘Let’s
say you cr...
56
We’ve built one of these already
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What is the objective function of our financial markets?
“The Social Responsibility of Business Is to
Increase Its Prof...
58
Is there really
nothing left
for humans to
do?
59
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Dealing with climate change
Rebuilding our infrastructure
Feeding the world
Ending disease
Resettling refugees
Caring f...
61
This is what technology wants
“Prosperity in human societies is best
understood as the accumulation of solutions
to hum...
62
“A platform is when the
economic value of everybody
that uses it exceeds the
value of the company that
creates it. Then...
63
Once a platform stops creating more
value for others than it captures for
itself, people migrate elsewhere.
64
Remember Microsoft’s competition with its ecosystem?
65
Google’s share of ad revenue over time
O’Reilly Research
66
Nations fail for the same reason
Inclusive economies outperform extractive
economies. When inclusive economies fall
pre...
67
Growth goes on forever?
One of the key drivers of
corporate bad behavior is the
command given them by
financial markets...
68
An alternative: “Doughnut Economics”
Kate Raworth
69
Oikonomia vs Chrematistike
70
O’Reilly Media
● Providing learning for almost 40 years
● Trends called – Open Source, Web
2.0, Maker Movement, Big Dat...
71
Change the world
by spreading the knowledge of innovators
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“The opportunity for AI is to help humans model
and manage complex interacting systems.”
Paul R. Cohen
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“Computational Sustainability is a new interdisciplinary research
field, with the overarching goal of studying and prov...
78
The great opportunity of the 21st century is to use our
newfound cognitive tools to build
sustainable networks and ecos...
79
Can we build an economic flywheel
that keeps us in the doughnut?
80
A Social Investment Stipend?
We need “a new social contract, one that values and
rewards socially beneficial activities...
81
“Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren”
The world of his grandchildren—the world
of those of us living today— wo...
82
What would it take for us to
• Put people to work tackling the world’s greatest problems?
• Treat humans as assets, not...
83
We will create the economy of the
future when we remember that the
function of technology is to empower
people to do th...
84
What’s the Future?
It’s Up To us
wtfeconomy.com
85
Tim O’Reilly
Founder & CEO, O’Reilly Media
@timoreilly
• O’Reilly AI Conference
• Strata: The Business of Data
• Jupyte...
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18 Delivery-driven Policy “This isn’t The Opportunity for Agile Governance

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18
Delivery-driven Policy
“This isn’t just how we should be
developing software. It’s how we should
be developing policy.”
Cecilia Muñoz,
Former Director, White House
Domestic Policy Council

Veröffentlicht in: Leadership & Management
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