[XConf Brasil 2020] Redefining confidence: cognitive biases in development life

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Nesta palestra, Birgitta Böckeler aborda alguns dos vieses cognitivos que podem enganar pessoas arquitetas e desenvolvedoras de software, além de possíveis formas de amenizar o impacto potencialmente negativo desses vieses.

Technologie

© 2020 ThoughtWorks
You do have in-depth
technical knowledge.
But you often use words
that make your statements
sound weaker.

© 2020 ThoughtWorks
You could be
even more
conﬁdent.

© 2020 ThoughtWorks
Thank you, I will
consider that.
You could be even
more conﬁdent.

© 2020 ThoughtWorks
Thank you, I will
consider that.
But...
You could be even
more conﬁdent.

Reference: Daniel Kahneman,
“Thinking fast and slow“.
© 2020 ThoughtWorks

Reference: Daniel Kahneman,
“Thinking fast and slow“.
“People are
generally
rational”
© 2020 ThoughtWorks

Reference: Daniel Kahneman,
“Thinking fast and slow“.
“People are
generally
rational”
“Emotions
explain the
exceptions”
© 2020 ThoughtWorks

“People are
generally
rational”
“Emotions
explain the
exceptions”
© 2020 ThoughtWorks
Cognitive
biases

© 2020 ThoughtWorks
Reference: Wikipedia

© 2020 ThoughtWorks
Conﬁrmation bias
Tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall
information in a way that conﬁrms our existing beliefs

Conﬁrmation bias at al
© 2020 ThoughtWorks
Don’t repeat
yourself, ever.

Software development
is full of uncertainty
© 2020 ThoughtWorks

© 2020 ThoughtWorks
Reference: The Guardian, 2016

© 2020 ThoughtWorks
Zero risk bias
Our preference for reducing a small risk to zero
over a greater reduction in a overall risk.

Security
Zero risk bias
© 2020 ThoughtWorks

Security
Avoiding
lock-in
Zero risk bias
© 2020 ThoughtWorks

Security
Avoiding
lock-in
Premature
optimization
Zero risk bias
© 2020 ThoughtWorks

© 2020 ThoughtWorks
Availability
heuristicOur tendency to think that if something
can be easily recalled, it must be important

Use models
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Security Threat modelling

Avoiding
Lock-in
© 2020 ThoughtWorks
Reference: Martin Fowler
Use models

“Don’t get locked up
in avoiding lock-in”
- Gregor Hohpe

Be explicit
about trade-oﬀs
© 2020 ThoughtWorks

Architecture is
“the important stuﬀ
that people perceive
as hard to change”
- Martin Fowler

Learning from
Our decisions
© 2020 ThoughtWorks

© 2020 ThoughtWorks
Outcome bias
Our tendency to evaluate the quality of a decision
based on the outcome of that decision.

Security
© 2020 ThoughtWorks
OutcomeDecision

Distinguish skill
from luck
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”...given what we knew
at the time, our skills
and abilities, the
resources available,
and the situation
at hand.”
- Prime Directive

© 2020 ThoughtWorks
Self-service bias
When we ascribe success to our own abilities
and eﬀorts, but blame failure on external factors

© 2020 ThoughtWorks
Reference: Annie Duke,
“Thinking in Bets”.

Write architecture
decision records
© 2020 ThoughtWorks

Conﬁrmation
bias
© 2020 ThoughtWorks
Zero risk
bias
Availability
heuristic
Outcome
bias
Self-serving
bias

Conﬁrmation
bias
© 2020 ThoughtWorks
Zero risk
bias
Availability
heuristic
Outcome
bias
Self-serving
bias
more

© 2020 ThoughtWorks
“You could be
even more
conﬁdent.” What does
that even
mean?

© 2020 ThoughtWorks
“You could be
even more
conﬁdent.” What does
that even
mean?
Do I really
want to?

● “I’m not sure”
● Asking questions
● Changing my mind

“Using uncertainty
to our advantage”
- Annie Duke

© 2020 ThoughtWorks
How conﬁdent are you
about your conﬁdence?

Birgitta Böckeler
@birgitta410
Obrigada
© 2020 ThoughtWorks

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