This presentation was given to the CCCW in Dec 2013 and presents a revised Ecological Footprint for Wales

1. Ecological and Carbon Footprints
for Wales 2011
Elena Dawkins
elena.dawkins@sei-international.org
elena.dawkins@york.ac.uk

2. Overview
• Project summary
• Introduction to Consumption Perspective for
Environmental Accounting (Footprints)
• Results – Welsh Ecological and Carbon
Footprints 2011
• Method
• Recommendations

3. Stockholm Environment Institute
• International non-profit research institute, HQ is in
Stockholm
• Our goal is to bring about change for sustainable
development by bridging science and policy
• www.sei-international.org

4. Footprint Update Project
• Aim – to update the Ecological and Carbon
Footprint results for Wales to the latest year
available (2011)
• Project work to date
– June 2013 Review of methodologies completed
– July – Nov 2013 UK domestic data preparation
– Nov 2013
• Import data preparation
• Environmental extensions
• Impact calculation and downscaling to Wales

5. Introduction to Consumption-Based
Accounting (Footprints)
• Estimating the environmental impacts of
consumption, regardless of where production
occurs
• Estimating impacts along full supply
chains, re-allocating from the point of
production to the final consumer

6. Introduction to Consumption-Based Accounting
(Footprints)
• The term footprint usually means a consumption based
measure
• The term is used in different contexts for different
purposes, there is no standard or agreed definition
• We consider the footprint of consumption by people
• It can be measured in terms of the land area required to
deliver goods and services for consumption (ecological
footprint) or the emissions emitted along the supply chains
of goods or services (carbon or GHG footprint).

7. Introduction to Consumption-Based Accounting
(Footprints)

8. Preliminary Wales 2011 Footprint Results
• Carbon (GHG) Footprint – 11.1 tonnes CO2e per person
• Ecological Footprint – 3.28 gha per person (2.5 planets)
Wales total EF by consumption theme
Wales total EF by land type

9. Ecological Footprint
Isle of
Anglesey
Conwy
Flintshire
Denbighshire
gha per capita
More
sustainable
Wrexham
3.0
Gwynedd
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
Less
sustainable
Powys
3.5
3.6
Pembrokeshire
Ceredigion
Carmarthenshire
Swansea
Monmouthshir
Merthyr
Blaenaue
Neath & Tydfil
Gwent
Torfaen
Port
Rhondd Caerphill
Talbot
a Cynon
y
Newport
Bridgen Taff Cardiff
Vale of
d
Glamorga

10. Carbon (GHG) Footprint
Isle of
Anglesey
Conwy
Flintshire
Denbighshire
t CO2e per
capita
10.3
Wrexham
Gwynedd
More
sustainable 10.6
10.9
11.2
11.5
11.8
Less
sustainable 12.1
Pembrokeshire
Powys
Ceredigion
Carmarthenshire
Swansea
Monmouthshir
Merthyr
Blaenaue
Neath & Tydfil
Gwent
Torfae
Port
Rhondd Caerphill
n
Talbot
a Cynon
y
Newport
Bridgen Taff Cardiff
Vale of
d
Glamorga
n

11. Latest Detailed Breakdowns
Classification of
Individual
Consumption
According to Purpose

14. Method
• Understanding modelling assumptions for
data analysis, interpretation and
recommendations
• Environmentally extended input output
analysis – common method for calculating
indirect (supply chain) impacts of
consumption

15. Environmental
Accounts
Key (in alphabetical order)
CDIAC: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
GFN: Global Footprint Network
HH: Household
LA: Local Authority
MOSAIC: Local expenditure profiles by Experian
NAEI: UK National
Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
ONS: Office for National Statistics
ROW: Rest of World
UK: United Kingdom
WIOD: World Input Output Database
REAP model data flow (simplified)
UK:
ONS
NAEI
GFN
Rest of World:
CDIAC (GHGs)
WIOD (GHGs)
GFN
Input-Output
(economic) data
UK:
Final Demand
(WUK Supply
and Use Tables
Total Output
Direct
Household
Impacts
Direct
sectoral
intensity
Total
sectoral x
intensity
Final
Demand =
for Wales
Total
Impacts
Indirect
Impacts
Leontief
Inverse*
ROW:
WIOD
Total
Impacts
(per
person
and
by LA)
Demographic
data
Population,
Households
LA, MOSAIC
Stage 1 Data Preparation
Stage 2 Environmentally Extended Input-Output Analysis (calculation stage)
Stage 3 Downscaling

16. Indirect Impacts Using Economic
Input-Output Table
Input: requirements of
industry, purchasers
view
Value Added
Industry sectors
Output:
sellers
view, product
s that are sold
to other
industries
Agri
Mining
Const
Manuf
Trade
Transport
Services
Other
Employees
Business owners
and capital
Government
Industrial sectors
Final Demand
Government
expenditures
Personal
Private
(purchases of Net Exports
consumption domestic
goods and
of goods
and services
Agri Mining Const Manuf Trade Transport Services Other expenditures investment services)
Labour costs (employee wages)
Profits, capital consumption allocances
Indirect business taxes
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

17. Basic
Environmentally
Extended Input
Output Method
Breakdown of FD into
40 household
consumption
categories.
Industries
1
n
Intermediate flows between industries (n x n)
Products
1
...
...
1
...
Final demand
categories
(n x l)
l
Total
output
Government
Households
Capital Investment
Exports
n
1
Value added (k x n)
k
Total input
E.g. Kt of CO2 from that
industry. Emissions intensity =
Kt CO2 per unit of input
Environmental Extension (r)
Legend
•n – no. of industries
•k – no. of value added categories
•l – no. of final demand categories
•r – no. of carbon emissions
Product A impact
Product B impact
Product C impact

18. Data behind the models
Multi-regional models – UK and the
supply chains of imports from the rest of
the world
The model combines the following data:
Models of the economy:
• Supply and Use Tables, Input-Output
tables from the Office of National
Statistics
• Global trade models (e.g. WIOD)
Country specific environmental data:
• Import emissions from WIOD tables
• National energy use/emissions
databases (e.g. UK Environmental
Accounts)
Regional Expenditure:
• MOSAIC, small area household
expenditure profiles
• Household expenditure surveys

19. Assumptions for Wales
• No input-output (IO) data available for Wales for recent year
• Data for construction of IO data available for UK (supply and use of products
by industries)
• Imports supplied as a single column (don’t know where they end up) –
global multi-regional IO table used to allocate imports to industries
– Gives 2 region, UK and ROW IO table
• Environmental extension data
– Emissions by sector from UK environmental accounts
– Emissions from ROW
– Global ecological footprint data from Global Footprint Network
• Consumption data
– Welsh consumption data are combined with estimates of the impacts of products supplied
produced in the economy, taking into account international imports
– Welsh consumption data from Household Expenditure Survey
– Government expenditure data from accounts/budget data
– Investment expenditure downscaled from UK

20. Delivering footprint reductions
Industries
1
1
...
n
1
Intermediate flows between industries (n
x n)
Exports
UK
to ROW
Products
Alter the supply...
chains
of industry (purchase
different products)
Imports
from
ROW
n
1
k
ROW
for
ROW
Overall – if increases in
consumption outweigh
Value added (k x n)
efficiency improvements then
footprints will continue to rise
Total input
Indirect
(supply chain
impacts)
Direct Impacts
Environmental Extension (r)
Household emissions or land use emitted
at the point of use (e.g. private
vehicles, burning fuel in homes)
...
l
Final demand
categories
(n x l)
Government
Households
Capital Investment
Exports
Total
output
Change or reduce
final demand
expenditure on
domestic and
imported goods
Reduce
emissions/land use
by industry in other
countries (along
supply chains)
Reduce emissions/land use by
industry domestically (e.g.
electricity sector, gov sector e.g.
education included here)
Reduce household
emissions/land use from
homes and vehicles

21. Possible Future Trends
Consumption, rising?
Energy intensity, mixed?

22. Recommendations
• Data
– Data in IO table is UK. Welsh Input-Output Table with Welsh
Environmental Extension Data?
– Improved Welsh consumption data
– Increased Welsh economic and industry data
– Historical time series?
– Regular model updates
– UK data improvements
– Local level travel data similar to energy data
• Reductions
– Policy assessment and monitoring
– Scenarios and trajectories
– Sectoral analysis and pathways (e.g. NHS Wales Carbon Monitor)

23. Reductions trajectory
100%
Steeper reductions in later
years.
Ecological footprint
80%
60%
40%
Steeper reductions in early
years.
20%
2011
2020
2030
2040
2050

24. Recommendations
•
Report re-emphasises the scale of challenge to achieve one planet living,
•
Policies - Continue efforts to review, promote and refine existing policies and develop
new ones.
•
Where - Domestic emission reductions and demand management. Influence the
international supply chain?
•
When - Early years reductions, quick wins to increase probability of achieving the one
planet living goal within a generation.
•
Increased effort required to accelerate the process of decoupling carbon emissions and
ecological footprint from economic growth.
–
Policy examples renewable energy, smart technology and (coupled with grid decarbonisation) change in
transport provision, demand management and demand reductions

25. Thank you!
Any questions?
elena.dawkins@sei-international.org
elena.dawkins@york.ac.uk
Final Report and Full Methodology Submitted 13th
December, published early new year

26. World toy exports
Responsibility: the people who make the goods?
Territory size shows the proportion of worldwide net exports of toys (in US$) that come from there. Net exports are exports minus
imports. When imports are larger than exports the territory is not shown.

27. World toy imports
Responsibility: the people who consume the goods?