Wise Sess11 102509

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SAME 2009 California Water Conference

Technologie

Addressing Climate Change and Variability in the Development of Environmental Flows Paul Leonard , Lauren Elmore and Lawrence Wise Climate Change and Environmental Flows

Some important questions: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

What is climate change? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],IPCC - climate change refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.

Climate change in the California? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Five Riverine Flow Components (Instream Flow Council 2008) ,[object Object],Water Quality Biology Physical Processes Connectivity Relevance of climate change to environmental flows: focus on hydrology

Effects on Aquatic Ecosystems ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Stationarity and hydrology ,[object Object]

Changing hydrology and environmental flows ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Incorporating climate change into streamflow management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Uncertainty? Availability? Global Climate Model Projections GHG Emission Trajectories Downscaling, Regional Models Hydrologic Models Hydrologic Scenarios Planning / Impact Assessment based on Projected “Futures” Scenario-Based Climate Change Assessments

Climate change streamflow scenarios for water planning… ,[object Object],Climate-Change Scenarios for Water Planning Studies 2003, Snover et al. 2003

Risk-Based Assessment Approaches ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

How has California been adapting to recent climate change-like patterns? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Hydrologicially Contingent Flow Releases

Forward-looking projections using meteorological forecasts “ Some weather patterns, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can now be predicted with some accuracy…”

Some Projects Incorporating Climate Change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Potential impediments ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Some practical considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Planning vs. permitting considerations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Can we incorporate risk management? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Risk management & adaptive management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Final thoughts… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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