Container Corporation of India Limited is the largest transport and logistics company in India with a network of 63 logistics centers. It has experienced strong growth in recent years with revenues increasing at a CAGR of 12%. While profits grew only 6% year-over-year in FY15, the company is expected to accelerate growth going forward. The stock currently trades at INR 1330 but is undervalued and expected to reach INR 1710 within 6-8 months, representing a potential gain of 28%.
1. RESEARCH REPORT ON
CONTAINER CORPORATION
OF INDIA LIMITED
Abstract
The research report will take through the Transport and Logistics
giant and Ministry of Railways owned PSU - “Container
Corporation of India Limited”. The report will help to understand
key fundamentals, technical and key financials of the company as
well as help to clear the vision of the investors for the company.
2.5X Growth in Last
Couple of Years
Largest Network of 63
ICDs/CFSs in India
Rail Freight Income-
Segment Leader
Container Traffic of All
India Ports Jumped to
CAGR 13.95%
Sector Leader with
Highest Market
Capitalization
BY
MR. SWAROOP PANDAO
swarooppandao@gmail.com
Sample Report
For Personal Use Only
2. Mr. Swaroop Pandao Independent Research Report
Container Corporation of India Limited
Date: 04/11/2015
Page 1 For Personal Use Only
INDEX
Head Page No.
Outlook and Valuation 2
Industry Analysis 3
Company Analysis 3
Highlights of FY15 Results 4
Segmentwise Revenue Results and Projections 5
Income Statement 6
Balance Sheet 7
Valuation Matrix 7
Management Overview 8
Technical Walk 9
Investment Theme 10
3. Mr. Swaroop Pandao Independent Research Report
Container Corporation of India Limited
Date: 04/11/2015
Page 2 For Personal Use Only
Outlook and Valuation
The valuation methodology we prefer for Transport
and Logistics sector is Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
analysis as we can see the sector shows a bit slow but
stable growth of the earnings. But the momentum
under which the sector is going currently, is
anticipated to milk the pace of growth. Our analysis
estimates the share price of the company is
undervalued at the current level INR 1330. The
intrinsic value of the stock is valued to be INR 1540.
But technical indicators are giving more better picture
targeting the stock around INR 1710 with the vision
of 6-8 months.
Container Corporation of India Limited is an
undisputed winner of the Transport and Logistics
sector roaring with huge market capitalization. The
main source of revenue for the company is Rail Freight,
generating around 80% of company’s total revenue.
Apart from this, the company is having the pillars in
Road Freight, Handling & Transport and Storage &
Warehousing. Container Corporation of India Limited
was incorporated in March, 1988.
Container Corporation Q2 Net up 21%
State run Container Corporation of India Limited
posted 21.38% jump in its net profit to Rs. 232.91 Cr
for the second quarter ended September 30. The
company had posted a net profit of Rs. 191.88 Cr for
the July-September quarter of the previous fiscal. Its
total income for the operations increased to Rs.
1501.94 Crduring the quarter from Rs. 1354.79 Cr in
the corresponding period of 2014-15. On the other
side, firm’s total expenses rose to 1273.38 Cr during
the quarter from Rs. 1190.68 Cr a year ago.
Recommendation : BUY
Closing Price 1330
Target Price 1710
Gain 28%
BSE Code 531344
NSE Code CONCOR
Market Walk
Range(52Weeks) 1200/1947
Otstanding Shares(Cr.) 19.5
Market Cap. (Cr.) 37966.5
Shareholding Pattern(%)
Promoters 61.79
FIIs 28.31
MFs, FIs, Banks(DIIs) 6.21
Others 3.69
BSE Sensex vs CONCOR
6m 2Y 5Y
Sensex -01% 26% 27%
CONCOR -22% 77% 52%
BSE Sensex vs CONCOR
Yearwise % Change
Chart
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
BSE Sensex vs CONCOR
Sensex CONCOR
4. Mr. Swaroop Pandao Independent Research Report
Container Corporation of India Limited
Date: 04/11/2015
Page 3 For Personal Use Only
Industry Analysis
The Transport and Logistics sector is the pivotal fundament that is important for the
development of the country. Since the 1990, the transportation infrastructure of India has
undergone a significant change. While in 90’s, the demand for the transport grew at an annual
rate of 10%. In the last decade, the demand in the transport and logistics industry grew along
with the accelerating Indian GDP. This growth increased the demand for practically all
transport services.
Another fact is that transport and logistics services in Indiaconsume a large portion of energy,
especially petroleum products. This share increases even more in India with the growth of
the economy and population.
Rising investments, rapidly evolving regulatory policies, mega infrastructure projects, and
several other developments in recent times have driven the Indian Transport and Logistics
market.
Company Analysis
Container Corporation of India Limited is one of the fastest growing company in the sector,
having largest market capitalization. From its humble beginning, it is now an undisputed
market leader having the largest network of 63 ICDs/CFSs in India. In addition to providing
inland transport by rail for containers, it has also expanded to cover management of Ports,
Air cargo complexes and establishing cold chain.
The container traffic at all India ports have increased at a CAGR of 13.95% including a CAGR
of 12.72% for the major ports.
Net sales for the company are dealing with a CAGR of 12%. Net profit has dried a bit with just
6% Y-O-Y rise but the momentum is giving a good hope for the company to milk the growth
faster. The market capitalization of the company is 37966.5 crore, largest in the sector. But
the peers are not to far. In term of sales turnover, CONCOR is at third position, lead by Jet
Airways and followed by Spice Jet.
Fundamentally company is looking sound. Technicals are shaking hands with the company
with high momentum. The company is offering scheduled and on demand rapid rail and road
services between terminals across the country.
5. Mr. Swaroop Pandao Independent Research Report
Container Corporation of India Limited
Date: 04/11/2015
Page 4 For Personal Use Only
Highlights of FY15 Results
High Growth Momentum
Simple Numerology
CONCOR’s Q2FY16 revenues grew @11%
YoY(up 6% QoQ) to INR 1502 crore. The
performance was mainly driven by EXIM
revenues which grew 14% YoY to INR
1236.6 crore.
EBITDA for the quarter grew 1% YoY to
316.1 crore. Increase in haulage charges and
impact of service charges continue to dent
the operational performance.
PAT grew 22% YoY(up 13% QoQ) to 233.5
crore. Annual PAT growth was on account of
higher depreciation charges to tune of INR
98.5 crore to Q2FY15 that dented PAT in the
same period.
Dried Volume
During the quarter, there were continued
technical problems at Pipavav and Mundra
Port due to which rail operations were
completely halted. Operations were affected
for 19 and 25 days respectively.
Service Tax and Haulage Charges
As per earlier taxation system, service tax of
12.36% was charged on 30% of total freight
cost. But now it is charged on total 100%
freight cost. Hence total service tax outflow
increased from 3.7% to 12.36% of billable
value. Addition to service tax hike, haulage
charges for these train operators were
increased by 25% to 41% approximately.
We believe these hikes will be passed on to
the customers in due course.
5356
5945
5000
5500
6000
2014 2015
Net Sales
990
1047
950
1000
1050
1100
2014 2015
Net Profit
12%
3%
14%
12%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Segment-wise Growth
6. Mr. Swaroop Pandao Independent Research Report
Container Corporation of India Limited
Date: 04/11/2015
Page 5 For Personal Use Only
Segmentwise Revenue Results and Projections
(Rs. in Cr.)
Segment FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16P FY17P FY18P FY19P FY20P
Rail Freight Income 3135 3451 3958 4428 5092 5856 6852 8016 9379
Road Freight Income 161 159 164 169 177 186 198 211 228
Handling and
Transportation 449 485 542 618 705 803 924 1062 1221
Storage and Warehousing 315 311 320 359 376 394 422 451 497
Total 4060 4406 4984 5574 6350 7240 8395 9741 11325
Rail Freight Income
It is a segment leader of the company
generating 79% of total revenue,
dealing with CAGR 12% and expected
to march with CAGR 13% till FY20.
Road Freight Income
It is least in the list with 3% revenue
running with CAGR 1.6%and 3%
growth. CAGR for FY20 is 3.9%.
Handling and Transportation
Leading with growth of 14% among
the segments, revenue share is 11%
with CAGR 11.2%. Till FY20, CAGR is
expected to touch 11.8%.
Storage and Warehousing
With the growth of 12%, segment is
having CAGR of 4.4%. For FY20, CAGR
will reach 5.2%
79
3
11
7
Segmentwise Revenue Share
Rail Freight Income Road Freight Income
Handling and Transportation Storage and Warehousing
7. Mr. Swaroop Pandao Independent Research Report
Container Corporation of India Limited
Date: 04/11/2015
Page 6 For Personal Use Only
Income Statement
(Rs. in Cr.)
Particulars FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16P FY17P FY18P FY19P FY20P
Revenue 3705 4060 4406 4984 5574 6350 7240 8395 9741 11325
Expenditure 2827 3037 3358 3883 4278 4701 5132 5610 6186 6829
EBITDA 1080 1340 1385 1473 1667 2049 2549 3278 4123 5149
Depreciation 145 159 172 189 373 429 506 597 717 860
PAT 755 878 941 990 1047 1264 1593 2091 2657 3345
In Income statement, revenue is moving with a steady growth with CAGR around 12.5% till FY15, even
the momentum was a bit clumsy. So in future with better circumstances and performance, it can be
projected higher. But still the projection of revenue is not exceeded too much. It is taken just above the
current pace with some increasing trend.
Expenditure for the company is increasing gradually. So we have taken same route for the future
expenses.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16P
FY17P
FY18P
FY19P
FY20P
Revenue vs Expenditure
Revenue Expenditure
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16P
FY17P
FY18P
FY19P
FY20P
EBITDA vs PAT
EBITDA PAT
8. Mr. Swaroop Pandao Independent Research Report
Container Corporation of India Limited
Date: 04/11/2015
Page 7 For Personal Use Only
Balance Sheet
(Rs. in Cr.)
Particulars FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16P FY17P FY18P FY19P FY20P
Share Capital 130 130 195 195 195 195 195 195 195
Reserves and
Surplus 5477 6151 6790 7441 8185 9085 10085 11295 12650
Net Worth 5607 6281 6985 7636 8380 9280 10280 11490 12845
Current Liabilities 602 655 715 790 885 1015 1173 1369 1616
Total Liabilities 889 969 1064 1053 1163 1311 1489 1707 1979
Current Assets 3301 3484 3313 3427 3587 3762 4025 4346 4681
Total Assets 6496 7250 8049 8689 9544 10591 11770 13197 14824
In the balance sheet of the company, we can see there is steady rise. So without giving any special effect,
balance sheet is projected carrying the same momentum.
Valuation Matrix
Particulars FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16P FY17P FY18P FY19P FY20P
EBITDA Margin 28% 31% 29% 28% 28% 30% 33% 37% 40% 43%
Net Profit Margin 19% 20% 20% 18% 18% 19% 21% 24% 26% 28%
ROE 15% 16% 15% 14% 14% 15% 17% 20% 23% 26%
ROCE 19% 21% 19% 18% 17% 19% 22% 26% 30% 33%
P/E Ratio 36.3 34.4 32.6 30.4 27.3 31.2 25.2 21.4 18.6 15.3
EV/Sales 5.5 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.2 4.3 3.8 3.4 3.2 2.9
EV/EBITDA 25.4 20.5 19.8 18.6 16.4 13.4 10.8 8.4 6.6 5.3
EPS 39 45 48 51 54 65 82 107 136 172
Current Ratio - 5.5 5.3 4.6 4.3 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.2 2.9
Here we can see, few profitability ratios are heading high. This is due to the high momentum
expectations from the company to perform much better in the near future
9. Mr. Swaroop Pandao Independent Research Report
Container Corporation of India Limited
Date: 04/11/2015
Page 8 For Personal Use Only
Management Overview
Name Designation
Shri Anil Kumar Gupta Chairman and Managing Director
Shri Yash Vardhan Director - Marketing and Operations
Dr. P Alli Rani Director – Finance
Shri Arvind Bhatnagar Director – Domestic Division
Shri V. Kalyana Rama Director – Project and Services
Shri Manoj Krishna Akhouri Director
Shri Pradeep Bhatnagar Part Time Non-Official Director
Shri M P Shorawala Part Time Non-Official Director
Shri Narayanam Madhusudana Rao Executive Director (Rates)
Shri Sudhir Mathur Part Time Non-Official Director
10. Mr. Swaroop Pandao Independent Research Report
Container Corporation of India Limited
Date: 04/11/2015
Page 9 For Personal Use Only
Technical Walk
Due to some unwanted circumstances, stock has fallen over the period. But this is the time
for recovery. EMA is on the way to give a buy call. Stock is looking undervalued at current
level. Volume is completely dried up. Pipavav and Mundra Port problems affected the stock
and volume a lot. 200 days moving average is signaling the stock to head higher in
anticipation of touching the stock price around INR 1700- INR 1720 from the current level.
Here, the phase has fallen like house of cards during the period. But we can see some stability
at current levels. Moving towards MACD, it is about to give a strict buy call for the stock. But
the momentum has already been shifted to head high.
11. Mr. Swaroop Pandao Independent Research Report
Container Corporation of India Limited
Date: 04/11/2015
Page 10 For Personal Use Only
Investment Theme
The company is an undisputed market leader having the largest network of 63 ICDs/CFSs in
India. CONCOR handled about 648456 TEU of export handling volume about 695258 TEU.
There were certain disruptions and evacuations in Pipavav and the total throughput for
Sept’15 quarter stood at 2086 TEU as compared to about 19300 TEU for Sept’14 quarter.
The company is slowly recovering from haulage and Service tax issues. While in EXIM
everything is passed on. Capex for FY16 will be around INR 1100 crore and for FY17 is
expected around INR 1200 crore.
Fundamentally CONCOR is showing great potential to overcome problems. Ratio are showing
good future for the company. Valuation giving fair value of INR 1540 whereas technically
stock price is projected to reach INR 1710.
The current P/E ratio i.e., 27X is expected to taste projected value of the stock in the near
future.
With the help of fundamental as well as technical analysis, we recommend “BUY” on
Container Corporation of India Limited.
Disclaimer
The document is prepared on the basis of publicly available information and other sources
believed to be reliable. Whilst we are not soliciting any action based on this information, all
care has been taken to ensure that the facts are accurate and the openions are given fair and
resonable. This information is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the buy of sell of any
financial instrument.