This presentation created by Stephen Sutton.

1. LETTER WRITTEN
IN 2070
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Document published in the magazine Wwwwww w w ww w wwwwwwww
"Crónica de los Tiempos"
April 2002.

2. We are in the year 2070.
I just turned 50 years old, but I look 85.
I experience major kidney problems,
because I drink very little water.
I think that I don’t have much more time
to live.
Today, I am the oldest person living in
this society.

3. I remember, when I was 5 years old
everything was very different.
There were lots of trees in the parks,
houses had beautiful gardens, and I could enjoy long baths and stay in
the shower for one whole hour.
Now, we have to clean ourselves by using disposable towelettes moisturized
with mineral oil.

4. Before, women were proud of their beautiful hair.
Now, we have to shave our head to keep it clean without using water.
Before, my father used to wash his car
with water that came out of a hose.
Today, children find it hard to believe
that one ever could use water to perfom
such a task.

5. I remember the many warnings:
”DON’T WASTE
WATER”
But nobody paid attention.
People assumed that water was
unlimited.
Today, rivers, dams, lagoons, and
under-ground water are all
either irremediably polluted or
completely dried up.

6. The landscape that surrounds us has turned into nothing more than an
immense desert.
Gastro-intestinal infections, and skin and urinary tract diseases have now
become the main causes of death.

7. Cool Not So Cool
Pan Borneo
The Challenge of Climate Change
on Borneo 2012 - 2100

8. Mark these dates!
• 2012 Baseline Climate change is here already!
….if things really do get worse…..
• 2030* when the proverbial is likely to really
hit the
• 2050** 9 billion people
• 2070*** water stress for 1.2 billion
» (more rain for 3 billion)
• 2100*****
• no.of ** = increasing severity

9. FAQ’s re Climate Change
• Is it getting warmer? 0.8 deg C from pre-
industrial days. Last 50 yrs hottest in the last
1,000 (global average)
• KK feels hotter & drier last 20 yrs.
• Are humans causing it? Almost certainly, yes
• Will it get warmer still? Very probably
• Anything we can do about it? Potentially. IPCC
forecasts rise of 1 - 4 deg C by 2100. Might be
able to limit to 2 deg C, but require huge
personal & corporate commitment, &
international cooperation

10. Our Problem
+0 C +1 C +2 C +4 C?
Today
1960 1990 2020 2040 2070 2100
Us – 80 yr life span
Our Children
Our Grandchildren
Sea Level Change ? ?1m (0.3 – 1.6m++) by 2100

11. ‘The Perfect Moral Storm: the Ethical
Tragedy of Climate Change
• Author Stephen Gardiner, Malcolm Bull review:
• London Review of Books 24th May 2012
• MB asks: “What is the rational response – what action
should society take?”
• nb. Can argue Rotary largest civil society group, how we
respond matters. 4 way Test guidance?
• Problem so huge & so many variables, and impact so
uncertain – FATALISM might seem like a good idea!
• But is it ethically defensible? Fatalism means not looking
after the interests of our children and grandchildren, and
unborn generations globally. Our generation has largely
caused this crisis, what inheritance do we want to leave?

12. Differential Regional Effects
& High End Uncertainty
• Mid latitudes e.g Somalia, China affected most –
millions (billions?) of v. poor people. Water
stress
• High latitudes might be v. pleased eg. Canada.
Get rid of lousy winters
• Huge uncertainty in top end of range of forecasts
(temps., rainfall, sea level, storm violence)
because of feed back loops..
• Permafrost 20% land cover – methane
generation – potent greenhouse gas

13. Moral Dilemma: Fatalism or Action?
• If action: national or international?
• Benefit our generation (means business as usual -
polite term for doing nothing) or future
generations?
• Would you sacrifice life style comforts & wealth
for:
• Your own descendants?
• Other unborn Malaysians?
• Those in other countries e.g Russians, Mexicans?
• No guessing:
• National boundaries ethical tragedy

14. Gambling with our Planet
(Daily Telegraph)

15. Humanity’s Greatest Gamble. The Mother of
all Experiments.
Is Rotary Concerned? Sort of.
• Within the RI Framework:
– Still thinking about it
• so it could be argued
– Need for change of mind set
– Need for a strategic plan
• Because maybe we are entering……..

16. A New Geological Age
• Pleistocene
• Holocene
• ‘Anthropocene’

17. Rotary could influence top
policymakers to produce needed
changes
•
• However, it won’t be easy:
• “The world faces several multifaceted
and critical problems that cannot be
solved by individual nations or the
existing international system” said Jean-
François Rischard at the Rotary Alumni
Celebration.
• Article by Joseph Derr and Arnold R.
Grahl - Rotary International News - 21
June 2009

18. Rotarians for Sustainability
• e – Get together of Clubs
• 10 Founding Clubs
• One in SE Asia - RCKK

19. Rotarians for Sustainability….
• Great Website (can calculate yr carbon footprint)
• Highly motivated, industrious & very
knowledgeable Rotarians
• Sustainability Trust
• Dynamic Leadership – Peter Sephton
• Clubs working together more effective
• Not under RI umbrella….yet
• Gold 50

20. Now to some detail of likely climate
change impacts:
• Temperature

21. Temperature
+0 C +1 C +2 C +4 C?
Today
1960 1990 2020 2040 2070 2100
Us
Our Children
Our Grandchildren
Sea Level Change ? ?1m (0.5 – 1.6++) by 2100
Temp. rising steadily – whatever the cause

22. Temperature a key environmental
driver – have to consider both level & range
• Type of crop
• Rate of crop growth
• Evaporation rate drought
• Fire greenhouse gases
• Expansion of water sea level rise
• Thawing - Permafrost problem (methane –
potent greenhouse gas)
• Thawing Greenland Ice Cap

23. Greenland Ice Cap the ice ‘fossil’ and the retreat of
Arctic ice 1979 - 2003

24. Map of Greenland
• Huge. 2-3km thick,
• 1.7 million km2
• more than 2 x area of Borneo. (2,000
km N to S, 1,000 km E to W )
• Nearly all above sea level

25. The Greenland Profile
Moulin
Sea Level

26. Greenland Ice sheet
• Climate fossil, hangover from last Ice Age
• Makes it’s own weather, but….
• Vulnerable to melting, could be v. fast
• Rapid rise Arctic temps
• Heat moves up from south

28. Greenland Ice Cap
Scientists not sure what is going on
• Melting: No forecasts: Could be 1000’s or
100’s of yrs. But threat of lurking positive
feedback loops means there is high end
uncertainty
• Northern part likely never melt
• If it did, would result in 7.2m rise world
wide
• S’pore 3 to 4m above sea level, ditto KK

29. Arctic – once a frozen waste all year round
But not any longer, in
summer we have……

30. The Big Melt
Ice on the Run
Seas on the rise

31. Threat! - Torrents & Moulins
On top of Greenland
ice sheet, water
rushes down a
‘moulin’.
To where and to what
effect is largely
unknown
The unknown
underbelly

32. Rainfall
annual amount, how much each time & when
• Since 1998 rainfall in Sabah has
increased by 16%, GCM’s (Global Climate
Models)
forecast 50% by 2050
• More rain much better than less rain, but
causes landslides, floods, erosion &
sediment
• Extreme rainfall events - more than 100m
(4 inches) in 24h – increased significantly,
forecast is more

34. Sarawak Flood 2009
• Climate change or overlogging?

35. Sea Level Rise
• Currently around 2 - 3mm a year, by 2100 would
be nearly 0.3m. Doesn’t sound much at all, but
already globally we already have:
• Coastal erosion, flooding of coastal cities &
deltas
• Salt water intrusion up rivers & into groundwater
• Storm surges & destruction
• Rise likely to be much higher (1m+)
• SE Asia population 563 million – 100 million
could be displaced – boat ride across S China
Sea to Borneo?

36. Coastal Erosion: Casuarinas (Aru) holding on for dear
life

37. Haze: Borneo fires 2006

38. Particulates; haze
• Atmospheric brown cloud @ haze
• Developing problem
• Product of industry, cars and burning
• Climate change contributes: made worse
by droughts & extreme events
• Sulphates. Can reflect back sun? Reduce
greenhouse gas effect effect?
• Unhealthy

39. Extreme Events; size & unpredictability
• Forecast major feature of future climate change:
• Typhoons (@cyclones, hurricanes), other
windstorms (gales, tornadoes)
• Rainstorms
• Droughts & fires
• Heat waves & freeze ups
• Because more heat needs to be distributed from
equator to poles, means more vigorous weather
systems
• UN International Panel for Climate Change has released report on
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters. 28 March
2012. Part of adaptation to climate change

40. Thai Floods
• $40 billion damage & loss of business
• Swiss Re: US$1 billion claims up 5 fold since 1980

41. Summary of Challenges for Borneo
• As above: Higher rainfall – 16% up last 10
yrs – est. 50% up by 2050
• Possible damaging sea level rise
• Increased unpredictability
• Increased extreme events
• Means greater risk of fires, haze, flooding,
storm damage. Droughts more frequent

42. More Borneo Impacts
• Higher temperatures - +1.5 deg C already
• Reduced crop yields, higher prices (but
compensated by increased rainfall?)
• Topsy-turvy seasons; ecosystem services
disrupted. 2011 no April/May dry spell, less
flowering & fruit setting. Fruit season delayed
• Importance of preserving forested Heart of
Borneo – prevent ‘continental’ type drying out
and desertification. Cool highland heart

43. Adaptation & Mitigation
• Mitigation here means taking action to
avoid climate change eg agreements to
limit CO2 emissions & haze generation
• Not working. International governance not
effective, e.g. Canada backing out of
Kyoto, ASEAN no teeth, haze in KL
• Energy conservation failure – look at
this…

44. 1981 NG Cover – 30 years ago!

45. Adaptation
(fixing things)
• Adaptation is not international. Can be
national, regional, local, e.g. KK can build
own sea defences
• Trend is Mitigation Adaptation
• Lots of little people getting things done,
rather than big organisations talking and
endlessly reporting
• But we need education & concern

46. Grassroots Action

47. Adaptation at Grassroots
(club level)
There’s lots going on:
• Reduce, Re-use, Recycle
• Trash gotong-royong
• Mudballs, artificial reefs
Tree Planting – Mangroves - Wetland
Conservation. Growing trees are carbon sinks
Education - Interact & Rotaract
That’s good! But a lot more is going to be
needed

48. Borneo Grassroots
…..more!
Improve kampong food security (more
suitable, tougher crops). Self sufficiency
needed (50% loss in SE Asia by 2050 -
crisis in rice production Mekong delta)
Anti-erosion measures (drainage)
Mini hydropower
Solar Energy
Water Supply & Conservation

49. Don’t Doodle! Get involved. Don’t
leave it to others. Think of ways to
adapt
•Slide
•Slide 2

50. Politicians need a sea change in
public opinion to do much
• Note this (Al Gore):
• ‘The minimum that is scientifically
necessary’ to combat global warming
• ‘Far exceeds the maximum that is
politically feasible’ at present
• Can Rotary help to educate and influence?

51. I leave you with these thoughts:
“We cannot solve our problems
with the same thinking we used
when we created them.”
Albert Einstein
The 4 Way test – I suggest a 5th
Dimension “Is it Sustainable?” If you
think Rotary can give a lead, let’s start a
debate.

52. Thank you for Listening
Thanks to:
DG Haji Zainie Abdul Aucasa for giving a lead on green
matters
• Concerned Rotary members in RCKK and other District
3310 clubs for advice, information and encouragement
• Mr Anthony Lamb, former Director of Tenom Agriculture
Park for local climate change info.
• Mr. Peter Pike for Visuals, Style & IT consultant services

53. Links to Sources
• On request:
• Email stephensutton7@gmail.com
• or www.stephensutton.info
• I will leave a list with links on my website
as above