Past and future trends in PV Industry developments

IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Trends in PV Markets
ECI Webinar, 20 March 2018
Gaëtan Masson, Task 1 Operating Agent
Trends in PV Applications

What is IEA PVPS?
• Implementing Agreement from
International Energy Agency –
Energy Technology Network.
• Established in 1993
• 32 members (and more announced): 27 countries, European
Commission, 4 associations
• Strategy 2013-2017: “To enhance the international
collaborative efforts which facilitate the role of photovoltaic
solar energy as a cornerstone in the transition to sustainable
energy systems” – New 2018 term

www.iea-pvps.org

Total capacity installed
400 GW

Evolution of installations

A Global PV Market
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GWpDC
FIGURE 3: EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL PV INSTALLATIONS (GW - DC)
America AsiaPacific Europe MEA&A RoW

From Europe to Asia

2016 Market History

Key Market Features
• China dominates the market
with 35 and 53 GW
respectively in 2016-2017
• The USA (down), Japan
(down), EU (stable), India (Up)
together are smaller than the
Chinese market.
• Emerging markets are growing,
but the global growth outside of
China is reduced. The one-
market curse is there again.

2015-2017 in a nutshell
Market dev outside China
Market dev emerging countries

2 Distinct PV Worlds
Distributed PV
Centralized PVProsumers
Producers
Grid injection, PPA,
competition with
utilities generation
business
Self-consumption,
energy effiency, grid
parity, competition
with utilities
distribution business
One
technology

Utility-scale dominates

DG was stable for 6 years.

Europe is Distributed
• Europe is distributed / China
will be / The World will
follow.
• Distributed PV is more
complex to implement than
tenders or simple FiT.
• The PV market in Europe
suffered from a too rapid
shift towards self-
consumption… or nothing.
• US and Japan have a good
share of distributed PV.

What drives the market?

A Range of System Prices
Super
competitive
tenders
Utility-scale
under FiT
Rooftop PV

Lowest tenders?

PV and GDP

PV and Electricity Demand

Download IEA-PVPS Reports
Trends in
PV (Q4 2018)
Snapshot of
PV markets
(next month)
Self-
consumption
policies

Conclusions
• Market development spreads globally
• With different results
• Growth 100% in the utility-scale segment
and relative market decline in the distributed
one… until 2016. 2017 is different !
• FiTs still drive the market
• Tenders are rising. But what about the
market after the tenders?
• 100 GW in sight… just the beginning?

www.iea-pvps.org
Thank you for your attention

Izumi Kaizuka,
IEA PVPS Task 1 expert / RTS Corporation, Japan
PV Industry Trends
from IEA PVPS Trends Report
20th March
25

Contents
• About RTS Corporation
• How we conduct analysis
• Highlights from IEA PVPS Trends report
• Upstream sector
– Crystalline Silicon Technology
– Thin-film Technology
• Issues and opportunity
26

Japan World
R & D
Deployment
Business models
Silicon feedstock
for solar cell
PV system
PV projects
Comprehensive Consultancy on Photovoltaic Power Generation (PV)
RTS Corporation – founded in 1983, 34-year experience
Business: Helping establish PV business strategy, “Go to Japanese market ”
Clients: Government agencies, utilities, manufacturers (entire value chain of PV)
project developers, financial institutes, industry associations, etc.
in JP, US, DE, IT, FR, AT, NR, CHE, AUS, CHN, IND, KOR, Taiwan, Thailand, etc.
30 year experience
Go to Japanese Market
Consulting for PV projects
27

How we conduct analysis
• Information in the National Survey
Reports from each member country
• RTS’s primary survey for non-member/
member countries
• Available information and figures from
industry associations and press
releases
28

Global PV makret in 2017: ~100GW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GWpDC
FIGURE 2: EVOLUTION OF ANNUAL PV INSTALLATIONS (GW - DC)
Non IEA PVPS Countries IEA PVPS Countries USA Japan China
China
India
Japan
USA
RoW
2017 est.
29

Source: RTS Corporation ©
PV System
Inverter
Value chain of PV system using crystalline silicon technology
raw material
ModuleLaminator
Cell
Battery
equipment for grid connection
various types of load, depending on applications
Design, installation technologies
Tedlar /PET
EVA
White Tempered Glass
Aluminum Flame
Junction Box
Deposition equip.
Screen Printing equip.
Diffusion furnace
Slicing equipment
Abrasive Grain, Slurry (for wire
saw slicing)
Wire (for wire saw slicing)
Doping material
Quartz Crucible
Cast Silicon furnace
Single Crystal growing
furnace
Texture treatment equip.
Silicon Feedstock
Interconnector
Mount structure
Firing furnace
single-crystalline Si
multi-crystalline Si
wafer
Metallization material
Antireflective Film
Etching & Texturing
solution

PV module production and capacity
Global production： ~ 63 GW in 2015
• Production：2016 ～80GW  2017 est: ~ 105GW
• Capacity：2016年 106GW  2017 est：
>120GW???
2017e
by RTS
31

Production share by country
No1：China
No.2：Taiwan
No.3：Malaysia
No1：China
No.2：South Korea
No.3：Malaysia
Source: Trends Report 2017 (before printing) 32

China continues to dominate production of cell &
China Global production(GW) China Global production(GW)
Solar cell production PV module production
Solar cell
• Chinese domestic production : 68 GW (68% of the world), 33.3% increase
• 21 companies have > 1 GW/year of production capacity
PV module
• Chinese domestic production : 76 GW (71% of the world), 43.3% increase
• 12 companies have > 2 GW/year of production capacity
Source: China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), January 2018 33

Top 10 PV module suppliers in the world
Source：RTS Corporation
rank 2017 Shipment (prospects) （GW） rank 2016 Shipment（GW）
1 JinkoSolar（China/Malaysia） 9.6 - 9.8 1 JinkoSolar（China/Malaysia） 6.7
2 Trina Solar（China/Thailand） 9.0 - 9.2 2 Trina Solar（China） 6.6
3 JA Solar（China/Malaysia）
※Includes Solar Cell
7.5 - 7.8 3 Canadian Solar（Canada/China） 5.2
4
Canadian Solar
（Canada/China/Vietnam）
6.8 - 6.9 4 JA Solar（China） 4.6
5
Hanwha Q CELLS
（Korea/China/Malaysia）
5.5 - 5.7 5
Hanwha Q CELLS
（Korea/China/Malaysia）
4.6
6
GCL System Integration Technology
（GCLSI）
（China/Vietnam）
5.0 6
GCL System Integration Technology
（GCLSI）（China）
3.9
7 LONGi Green Energy Technology（China） 4.5 7 First Solar（U.S./Malaysia） 2.7
8 Risen Energy（China） 3.6 8 Yingli Green Energy（China） 2.2
9
Shunfeng International Clean
Energy/Suntech Power（China）
2.5 9 LONGi Green Energy Technology（China） 1.8
10 Yingli Green Energy（China） 2.8 - 2.9 10 SolarWorld（Germany/U.S.） 1.7
There will be companies with more than 10GW/year of production capacity by the end of 2018
34

PV module manufacturing capacity by major companies
Source: RTS Corporation
35

Manufacturing capacity of major companies along value
chain
Source RTS Corporation
36

Manufacturing site and capacity of major PV producers
(GW)
Solar cell production capacity by location (GW)
PV Module production capacity by location (GW)
37

Crystalline Si vs Thin Film
38

Recent Advancement of Thin-film technologies
39
https://www.nrel.gov/pv/assets/images/efficiency-chart.png

Issues
• Lower margin for manufacturing
– Lost of interest from investors for
manufacturing  Delisting from stock market
– Difficulty for adding value to price
– Less investment for R&Ds
 Consolidation continues
• Trade conflicts
– Increase of PV module price with tariff will
results stagnation of specific PV markets
(USA and India???)
 Shift of focus to new markets
41

Source：PVinsights.com
Spot price of PV modules
SpotPrice(USD/W)
42

Revenue & Profit: Jinko Solar
Source: IR presentation, Jinko Solar
Revenue (unit million USD)
Operating profit
(unit million USD)
Operating margin(%)
43

The effect of Section 201 of Safeguard on PV module price
• U.S. President Trump decided safeguard measures against imported crystalline
silicon PV cells/modules based on Section 201 of the Trade Act
• the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced tariff and exempt
volume for solar cell on January 22, 2018
• The measures came into effect on February 7, 2018 and will be applied for 4
years
• Increase in PV module cost is expected. NREL expects 10 UScent/W for utility
scale projects
Product Type of measure Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
PV cell
Maximum import
volume exempted from
tariff
2.5GW 2.5GW 2.5GW 2.5GW
Tariff for exceeding
maximum
30% 25% 20% 15%
PV module Tariff 30% 25% 20% 15%
44
Safeguard tariff announced by USTR

Opportunities
• Differentiation
- Products
- Higher performance
- Higher reliability
- Added-value: BIPV, VIPV (Vehicle-integrated)
- Business models
- Component provider  energy provider
+EMS, +Storage, +Added value
45

Module
Trends along the value chain
- Debottlenecking
- FBR
- Metallurgical
process
- G7  G8
- HP mc-Si
- DW for sc-Si
&mc-Si
- Texture
- Thinner sc-Si
- PERC,
PERT,
SHJ, IBC
- Bifacial
- Multi-
busbars
- Half-cut
- Shingles
- Glass-Glass
- Non-EVA
- Spectral
conversion
encupsulants
- 1,500V
- Bifacial
- AR coating
- Anti-Soiling
• Higher efficiency
• Larger size
• Material/ electrodes
• Process
Lower cost equipment/ process
46

Trends towards higher efficiency
• China: Top Runner program
Technology
Requirement in 2016
Requirement in 2017
(Draft)
η（%） Output（Wp） η（%） Output（Wp）
mc-Si Cell ≥19.5
cc-Si Cell ≧21.0
mc-Si PV module
60 Cells ≥16.5 270
≥17.0
72 Cells ≥16.5 325
sc-Si PV module
60 Cells ≥17.0 275
≥18.0
72 Cells ≥17.0 330
a-Si ≥12.0 ≥12.0
CIGS ≥13.0 ≥13.0
CdTe ≥13.0 ≥13.0
Other Thin-films ≥12.0 ≥12.0
HCPV（500 X） ≥30.0 ≥30.0
47

FIT in Taiwan: bonus for high-efficiency PV modules
高効率品の認定要件における結晶シリコン太陽電池モジュールの最大出力要件（単位：Wp）
PV module type 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
6inch 60 cells
sc-Si
290 295 300 305 310
6inch 60Cells
mc-Si
275 280 285 290 295
6 inch 72 cells
sc0Si
350 356 362 368 374
6 inch 72 cells
mc-Si
330 336 342 348 354
5 inch 96 cells
sc-Si
320 325 330 335 340
Source：Ministry of Economy, Taiwan
FIT for PV in Taiwan in 2017 (Unit: Taiwan $ /W)
System Capacity
FIT for high efficiency
module
General
Rooftop
1 - 20kW 6.4695 6.1033
20 - 100kW 5.2758 4.9772
100 - 500kW 4.8111 4.5388
500kW - 4.6744 4.4098
Ground 1kW - 4.8195 4.5467
Water surface 1kW - 5.2367 4.9403
Level of PV module output (example of crystalline Si technology)
48

Emerging application: PV for Transport
http://news.panasonic.com/global/press/data/2017/02/en170228-3/en170228-3.html
http://www.caixinglobal.com/2017-08-24/101135153.html
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/hanergy-and-audi-sign-mou-
on-strategic-cooperation-in-thin-film-solar-cell-technology-300508359.html
50

Opportunities
Source: Science, Vol. 356, Issue 6334, 14 April 2017
51

Acknowledgement for the support of PVPS activities
Contact : Izumi KAIZUKA, RTS Corporation, kaizuka@rts-pv.com
Thank you for your kind
attention !
感谢您的关注
끝 까지 경청해 주셔서 감사합니다
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Past and future trends in PV Industry developments

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