International Climate Policy – From Warsaw to Paris

International climate policy
From Warsaw to Paris
Ecofys webinar

30/01/2014
Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com


The EU has saved the climate negotiations…

… but not yet the climate.

Photo: Leila Mead/IISD

Global GHG emissions (GtCO2e/a)

56
Business as usual
56 GtCO2e
Confirmed
national reduction
proposals 55 GtCO2e

54

52

Ambitious end of
national reduction
proposals 50 GtCO2e

We need an emergency plan!

50

48

46

44
2010

2

2015

2020

© ECOFYS | 30/01/2014 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com

Timeline of the UN climate negotiations

1992 UNFCCC

1997 Kyoto
Protocol

2001 Rules of
the Kyoto
Protocol

Objective: “Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system.”
Principle: “The Parties should protect the climate system on the
basis of equity and in accordance with their common but
differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.
Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in
combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof.”

3



1992 UNFCCC

1997 Kyoto
Protocol

2001 Rules of
the Kyoto
Protocol

> Emission reduction targets for developed countries
(in aggregate 5% below 1990 in 2008 to 2012)

> Flexibility in reaching targets
 International emission trading / joint

implementation
 Clean Development Mechanism (offset projects)

4


No Kyoto Protocol
First a treaty with all
1992 UNFCCC

1997 Kyoto
Protocol

2001 Rules of
the Kyoto
Protocol

First Kyoto Protocol
Then treaty with all
countries

5


countries


1997 Kyoto
Protocol

1992 UNFCCC

2007 Bali
Action Plan

2009
Copenhagen

2001 Rules of
the Kyoto
Protocol

2011 Cancun
Agreements

2012 Durban
platform

2015 New
agreement

Kyoto Protocol track

UNFCCC track

Durban Platform
> Copenhagen Accord agreed – falling short of expectations

> But
 All countries agreed that global temperature increase
should be limited to 2°C
 All major emitters proposed emission reduction
targets for 2020

6


2020

No Kyoto Protocol
First a treaty with all
1992 UNFCCC

2007 Bali
Action Plan

2009
Copenhagen

countries

2001 Rules of
the Kyoto
Protocol

1997 Kyoto
Protocol

2010 Cancun
Agreements

2012 Durban
platform

2015 New
agreement

2020

UNFCCC track

First Kyoto Protocol
Then treaty with all
countries

Durban Platform

Ok, Kyoto
Protocol only for
the EU, but only
with a date for a
treaty with all
countries

7



1992 UNFCCC

2007 Bali
Action Plan

1997 Kyoto
Protocol

2009
Copenhagen

2001 Rules of
the Kyoto
Protocol

2010 Cancun
Agreements

2011 Durban
platform

2015 New
agreement

UNFCCC track

Durban Platform

Photo: Flickr/UNFCCC
8


2020

Climate negotiations over time

Emission reductions
> Agreement of limit global temperature increase to 2°C
> Emission reduction proposals for all major countries for 2020
> Kyoto Protocol with moderate targets until 2020 and limited participation
Financing
> From 10 billion US$ (2010/11/12) to 100 billion US$ per year (2020)
> Green Climate Fund as new financing channel
> New forms of cooperation, e.g. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs), forestry (REDD+)
Reporting
> Biennial reporting of emissions and policies

9


What could be in a 2015 agreement?

> Global goal, e.g. “phase out of global
greenhouse gas emissions by 2050”

> National emissions reduction commitments

Proposal:
Commitment and
equity principle

> Commitments on financial contributions

Technical review
and questions

> Measures and goals for adaptation
A possible proposal: Haites et al. 2013
http://www.iddri.org/Publications/Collections/Idees-pour-ledebat/WP1613_EH%20FY%20NH_legal%20agreement%202015.pdf

No

Sufficient?

Yes

Yes

Final 2020-23
Commitment
More
ambitious
2024-27
commitment

10







56
Business as usual
56 GtCO2e
Confirmed
national reduction
proposals 55 GtCO2e

54

52

Ambitious end of
national reduction
proposals 50 GtCO2e


50

48

46

44
2010

11

2015

2020


The emissions gap

www.climateactiontracker.org
12


EU

> 20% below 1990 in 2020
> 30% below 1990 if there is a global ambitious agreement

13


USA
> 17% below 2005
> Possible if new climate plan is really implemented

14


China
> Pledge: CO2/GDP 40-45% below 2005 by 2020, share of non-

fossil fuels of 15% by 2020, forest cover
> Policies: top 10 000 company programme, support for renewables,
low carbon zones, emission trading systems, efficiency standards
for cars and trucks, regional ban of new coal fired power plants, …

15


National climate policy

Countries
responsible for 67%
of global emissions
have national
climate legislation or
strategy
Source:
Dubash et al. 2013
http://dx.doi.org/10.1
080/14693062.2013.
845409

16


Climate Action Tracker

17







56
Business as usual
56 GtCO2e
Confirmed
national reduction
proposals 55 GtCO2e

54

52

Ambitious end of
national reduction
proposals 50 GtCO2e


50

48

46

44
2010

18

2015

2020


Simple view

Complex view

UNFCCC
climate treaty

National government
action

Source: Draft
of IPCC Fifth
Assessment Report
19


20

54

52

56

2010
2015

Included in low ambition pledge
Included only in high ambition pledge
Additional to pledges

Ambitious end of
national reduction
proposals 50 GtCO2e

52

50
50

48
48

46
46

44
44

2020

Blok et al 2012: Bridging the greenhouse gas gap,
Nature Climate Change
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n7/full
/nclimate1602.html


2° C range


Business as usual
56 GtCO2e
Confirmed
national reduction
proposals 55 GtCO2e

Top-1000 companies emission reduction
Supply chain emission reductions
Green financial institutions
Voluntary offset companies
Voluntary offset consumers
Major cities initiative
Sub-national governments
Building heating and cooling
Ban of incandescent lamps
Electric appliances
Cars & trucks emission reduction
Boost solar photovoltaic energy
Boost wind energy
Access to energy through low-emission options
Phasing out subsidies for fossil fuels
International aviation and maritime transport
Fluorinated gases initiative
Reduce deforestation
Agriculture
Short lived climate forcers
Efficient cookstoves


Wedging the gap: the Green Growth approach to global
action on climate change
56

54

Wedging the gap: the Green Growth approach to global
action on climate change
Companies’ emissions

Energy efficiency

Special sectors

Top-1000 companies
emission reduction

Buildings heating and
cooling

Intl. aviation and
maritime transport

Supply chain emission
reductions

Ban of incandescent
lamps

Fluorinated gases
initiative

Green financial
institutions

Electric appliances

Reduce deforestation

Voluntary offset
companies

Cars and trucks
emission reductions

Agriculture

Other actors

Energy supply

Voluntary offsets
consumers

Boost solar
photovoltaic energy

Major cities initiative

Boost wind energy

Sub-national
governments

Access energy through
low emission options
Phasing out subsidies
for fossil fuels

21


Methane and other air
pollutants
Methane and other air
pollutants
Efficient cook stoves
Blok et al 2012: Bridging the greenhouse gas gap,
Nature Climate Change
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n7/full
/nclimate1602.html

Cooperative initiatives
> Energy efficiency with significant potential, up to 2 GtCO2e by 2020. It is
already covered by a substantial number of initiatives. Focus and coherency
is needed.

> Fossil-fuel subsidy reform with varying estimates of the reduction
potential: 0.4–2 GtCO2e by 2020. The number of initiatives and clear
commitments in this area is limited.

> Methane and other short-lived climate pollutants as a mix of several
sources. Reducing methane emissions from fossil-fuel production has
received particular attention in the literature. This area is covered by several
specific initiatives and one that is overarching.

> Renewable energy with particularly large potential: 1–3 GtCO2e by 2020.
Several initiatives have been started in this area. Focus and coherency is
needed.
Quelle: UNEP emissions gap report
http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgapreport2013/
22


Interntional climate policy





56
Business as usual
56 GtCO2e
Confirmed
national reduction
proposals 55 GtCO2e

54

52

Ambitious end of
national reduction
proposals 50 GtCO2e


50

48

46

44
2010

23

2015

2020


Thank you for your attention!
Ecofys Germany GmbH
Dr. Niklas Höhne
Am Wassermann 36
50829 Cologne
Germany

T: +49 (0)221 27070-101
E: n.hoehne@ecofys.com
I: www.ecofys.com

24


Stabilization of the climate

Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001
25


Historical emissions
7

Emissions in Tg CO2eq.

3

Annex I

x 10

N2O
CH4
Forestry CO2
Fossil CO2

2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

7

Emissions in Tg CO2eq.

3

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Non-Annex I

x 10

N2O
CH4
Forestry CO2
Fossil CO2

2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1900

26

1950
Year

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950
Year


Future emissions

27


The challenges of 2°C with current pledges
1996 - EU agrees on 2°C limit, which meant
- Ambitious but realistic reduction rates
- Delayed participation of developing countries possible
- Choice of technology possible
- Opportunities for innovation and energy security
Future
emissions
given pledges

60

Global GHG emissions (GtCO2e)

50

-

Historical
emissions

2012 - Today: 2°C limit means
- Last chance, action before 2020 necessary
- Instantaneous change by all actors
Opportunities for innovation and energy security
- Unprecedented reduction rates necessary
2020 – planned entry into force of new climate
agreement: 2°C limit means
- High probability that 2°C limit is missed
- Instantaneous change by all actors
- Unprecedented reduction rates necessary
- All technologies necessary
- Shutdown of equipment before its end of life

40

30

20

10

0
1990

28

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

Year


2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Decisions in Warsaw on the timing of commitments
> “… initiate or intensify domestic preparations for their intended

nationally determined contributions… and to communicate them well
in advance of [COP21 (2015)] (by the first quarter of 2015 by those
Parties ready to do so)”
> “identify, by [COP20 (2014)] the information that Parties will
provide when putting forward their contributions”

29


Decision in Warsaw on pre-2020 ambition
> “Intensifying, as from 2014, the technical examination of opportunities for
actions with high mitigation potential, … with a view to promoting voluntary
cooperation …

> … sharing … of experiences and best practices of cities and subnational
authorities…”

30


Possible processes to determine commitments
Equity Reference
Framework
(optional)

Proposals
Review
of aggregated
proposals

Individual review

Sufficient?

No

Yes

Sufficient?

Negotiations

Yes

Agreed?

No
Yes

Fixing in
agreement

Ratchet up
(optional)

31


No

International Climate Policy – From Warsaw to Paris

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