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/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED1
LEONARDO ENERGY WEBINAR
INTRODUCTION TO GREEN
ENERGY SOURCING FOR
INDUSTRIAL CUSTOMERS
14 SEPTEMBER 2017
BENJAMIN MUNZEL
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POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
• How can the different options for green energy
sourcing be designed and combined?
• How can the different options be differentiated in
terms of credibility and price?
• What are the implications of the Clean Energy
Package?
• Which steps should industrial consumers follow
to implement credible green energy sourcing?
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED3
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
Green energy sourcing options
Quality and price considerations
Policy and market outlook
Recommendations to industrial consumers
Conclusion
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED44 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
AT A GLANCE: ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY
Global consulting company founded in 1984 with the mission to enable sustainable
energy for everyone – since 2016, Ecofys has been part of Navigant’s global Energy
practice
We have over 600 experts skilled in energy, climate, environment, economy,
communication, law, and psychology – in 2007, 11 of our experts supporting the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were awarded the Nobel Prize together with
Al Gore
More than 30 years of experience in developing and evaluating policies, sustainability
strategies, and scenarios for companies and sectors provides us with deep knowledge of
markets and consumer behaviour
Our strength lies in our strategic understanding of complex energy and climate transition
issues: Ecofys connects the dots within the triangle between governments, energy
players, and energy-intensive end-users
Ecofys has five offices in four countries: Utrecht, the Netherlands; Cologne & Berlin,
Germany; Brussels, Belgium; London, United Kingdom – as part of Navigant, our experts
are based in more than 20 offices in the US and Canada, Hong Kong, and the Middle
East
Copyrightinformation:Freeiconsprovidedbyicons8.comasCCBY-ND3.0
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JOINED FORCES: ECOFYS & NAVIGANT
Energy Product
Manufacturers & Technology
Utilities
Industry & Corporates
Investors
Foundations/NGOs
Government
Climate Change
Mitigation
Energy Security
Customer Demands
& Choice
Together, Ecofys and Navigant help clients navigate the energy transition
Technology
Innovation
Policy & Regulatory Challenges
Market Demand & Technology Change
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WHY GREEN ENERGY SOURCING
By delivering the Paris Agreement, COP21
repowered climate action on a global scale.
Limiting global warming to 2° - preferably
1.5° - is now the new set target. Energy
supply causes ¼ of global GHG emissions.
An increasing number of industrial
companies is joining initiatives to
lower GHG emissions or to increase
shares of renewables in energy
supply, such as RE100, CDP etc.
While retail energy prices have been rising for many years,
levelised cost of energy from renewable sources have dropped
drastically. Both trends are expected to continue, leading to
unsubsidized RES competitiveness. Recent auctions resulted in
electricity prices from wind or solar at or below wholesale levels.
Paris
Agreement
Industry
commitment
Cost
effectiveness
1
2
3
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GREEN ENERGY SOURCING IS CRUCIAL
By delivering the Paris Agreement, COP21
repowered climate action on a global scale.
Limiting global warming to 2° - preferably
1.5° - is now the new set target. Energy
supply causes ¼ of global GHG emissions.
Paris
Agreement 1
Sources: [SBT], [EEA]
Energy supply
Transport
Industry
Residential and
commercial
Agriculture
Waste
Aviation
GHG emissions pathway Share of energy supply in EU emissions
30%
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MANY COMPANIES ARE ENGAGING IN GREEN ENERGY
An increasing number of industrial
companies is joining initiatives to
lower GHG emissions or to increase
shares of renewables in energy
supply, such as RE100, CDP etc.
Industry
commitment 2
Sources: [SBT], [CDP], [RE100]
5,600 companies
are disclosing their
GHG emissions.
297 companies are
setting individual
targets compatible
with the 2° target.
102 of the world's
most influential
companies
committed to
100% renewable
power.*
* Most plan to achieve this target by 2020. Some have committed for later years (max. 2050). Some are already sourcing 100% green energy.
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GREEN ENERGY IS BECOMING COST-EFFECTIVE
While retail energy prices have been rising for many years,
levelised cost of energy from renewable sources have dropped
drastically. Both trends are expected to continue, leading to
unsubsidized RES competitiveness. Recent auctions resulted in
electricity prices from wind or solar at or below wholesale levels.
Cost
effectiveness 3
Rising retail electricity prices 1 Falling LCOE from RES 2
0
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Electricityretailprice[€/MWh]
Italy
United Kingdom
Malta
Germany
Cyprus
Ireland
Latvia
Slovakia
Portugal
Belgium
Spain
Greece
Denmark
Lithuania
France
Austria
Hungary
Netherlands
Croatia
Poland
Estonia
Romania
Czech Republic
Slovenia
Finland
Bulgaria
Luxembourg
Sweden
EU average
2.3% annual increase in EU
Sources: [ECa], [Ecofys], [EIA]
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Wind Solar
12% 30%
annual decrease
LCOE[€/MWh]
1 industrial consumers 2 global average
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WHY GREEN ENERGY SOURCING
By delivering the Paris Agreement, COP21
repowered climate action on a global scale.
Limiting global warming to 2° - preferably
1.5° - is now the new set target. Energy
supply causes ¼ of global GHG emissions.
An increasing number of industrial
companies is joining initiatives to
lower GHG emissions or to increase
shares of renewables in energy
supply, such as RE100, CDP etc.
While retail energy prices have been rising for many years,
levelised cost of energy from renewable sources have dropped
drastically. Both trends are expected to continue, leading to
unsubsidized RES competitiveness. Recent auctions resulted in
electricity prices from wind or solar at or below wholesale levels.
Paris
Agreement
Industry
commitment
Cost
effectiveness
1
2
3
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED11
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
Green energy sourcing options
Quality and price considerations
Policy and market outlook
Recommendations to industrial consumers
Conclusion
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED12 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED1212 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
3 RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY SOURCING METHODS:
OWNERSHIP AND LOCATION
Location/
Proximity
Ownership
On-siteNear-siteOff-site,
same country
Off-site,
neighbouring
country
Self-owned
Leased
3rd-party owned
(contracted)
3rd-party owned
(retailed)
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3 RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY SOURCING METHODS:
OWNERSHIP AND LOCATION
Location/
Proximity
Ownership
On-siteNear-siteOff-site,
same country
Off-site,
neighbouring
country
Self-owned
Leased
3rd-party owned
(contracted)
3rd-party owned
(retailed)
Self-
generation
Power
Purchase
Agreements
Guarantees
of Origin
Google/Apple/…
windfarms
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RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY SOURCING METHODS
Self-generation
(on-site or near-site)
Power Purchase
Agreements
Guarantees of Origin
(grey electricity offsetting)
Self-generation with
direct self-consumption
(microgrid)
Self-generation with grid
feed-in and extraction
(net-metering)
PPA with real-time
matching of generation
and consumption
PPA with balanced
consumption over time
Bundled green
power product
Redemption of
unbundled GOs
GO
GO
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GREEN ENERGY SELF-GENERATION
Self-generation
(on-site or near-site)
Self-generation with
direct self-consumption
(microgrid)
Self-generation with grid
feed-in and extraction
(net-metering)
• Install renewable energy system (e.g. solar panels, wind
turbines) on or near company site.
 Various finance, operating and ownership models with
different risk profiles and tax/levy obligations possible.
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GREEN ENERGY SELF-GENERATION
Self-generation
(on-site or near-site)
Self-generation with
direct self-consumption
(microgrid)
Self-generation with grid
feed-in and extraction
(net-metering)
• Install renewable energy system (e.g. solar panels, wind
turbines) on or near company site.
 Various finance, operating and ownership models with
different risk profiles and tax/levy obligations possible.
Either …
• … operate energy system as island/microgrid for direct
self-consumption of generated electricity,
 Requires system flexibility: flexible generation (e.g. biogas
CHP), energy storage (e.g. battery), flexible demand (e.g.
load management).
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THE FLEXIBILITY GAP
Share of variable renewable energy sources
Flexibility
Existing supply flex
New supply flex
Storage flex
Demand flex
Flexibility
gap
Self-generation
(on-site or near-site)
Self-generation with
direct self-consumption
(microgrid)
Self-generation with grid
feed-in and extraction
(net-metering)
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GREEN ENERGY SELF-GENERATION
Self-generation
(on-site or near-site)
Self-generation with
direct self-consumption
(microgrid)
Self-generation with grid
feed-in and extraction
(net-metering)
• Install renewable energy system (e.g. solar panels, wind
turbines) on or near company site.
 Various finance, operating and ownership models with
different risk profiles and tax/levy obligations possible.
Either …
• … operate energy system as island/microgrid for direct
self-consumption of generated electricity,
 Requires system flexibility: flexible generation (e.g. biogas
CHP), energy storage (e.g. battery), flexible demand (e.g.
load management).
… or …
• … connect the system to the grid for balanced green
energy consumption.
 Risk of potential double-claiming needs to be ruled out (in
some countries, mind public financial support and GOs).
 May require bidding in RES auctions (in some countries,
‘grid congestion zones’).
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LEAD TIMES FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS
Self-generation
(on-site or near-site)
Self-generation with
direct self-consumption
(microgrid)
Self-generation with grid
feed-in and extraction
(net-metering)
Wind EnergySolar Energy
2
2 months
5 months
2 months
3 months
20 years
Idea
Feasibility
Development
Design, lease,
permits,
commitment
Consent
Financing,
contracting
Construction
Operation
2
6 months
2-3 years
6 months
20-25 years
1.5 years
1year
5years
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GREEN POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENTS
Power Purchase
Agreements
PPA with real-time
matching of generation
and consumption
PPA with balanced
consumption over time
• Sign a long-term contract (typically 10+ years) to procure
energy and GOs from a specific off-site renewable energy
project (e.g. wind farm) pre- or post-project development.
 Various terms, participation and pricing models possible but
not in all countries/jurisdictions.
 Some corporates also own or invest in the renewable
generation assets directly.
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COMMON PPA DESIGNS
PPA
price
Sleeving
fee
Sleeved /
physical
RE power RE power
RE generator Utility Consumer
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COMMON PPA DESIGNS
PPA
price
Sleeving
fee
Sleeved /
physical
Synthetic /
virtual
RE power RE power
Compensation
(PPA price)
Retail
price
Power Power
Market
price
Guarantee
of origin
RE generator Utility Consumer
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GREEN POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENTS
Power Purchase
Agreements
PPA with real-time
matching of generation
and consumption
PPA with balanced
consumption over time
• Sign a long-term contract (typically 10+ years) to procure
energy and GOs from a specific off-site renewable energy
project (e.g. wind farm) pre- or post-project development.
 Various terms, participation and pricing models possible but
not in all countries/jurisdictions.
 Some corporates also own or invest in the renewable
generation assets directly.
Either …
• … match generation and consumption at all times,
 Requires flexible demand and/or combination of various
distributed energy resources (virtual power plant).
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GREEN POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENTS
Power Purchase
Agreements
PPA with real-time
matching of generation
and consumption
PPA with balanced
consumption over time
• Sign a long-term contract (typically 10+ years) to procure
energy and GOs from a specific off-site renewable energy
project (e.g. wind farm) pre- or post-project development.
 Various terms, participation and pricing models possible but
not in all countries/jurisdictions.
 Some corporates also own or invest in the renewable
generation assets directly.
Either …
• … match generation and consumption at all times,
 Requires flexible demand and/or combination of various
distributed energy resources (virtual power plant).
… or …
• … balance generation and consumption over a specific
period of time.
 Requires good knowledge of (future) power demand.
 Balancing risk outsourced to grid operator.
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GUARANTEES OF ORIGIN
Guarantees of Origin
(grey electricity offsetting)
Bundled green
power product
Redemption of
unbundled GOs
GO
GO
• Offset non-renewable energy supply through the
redemption of Guarantees of Origin from renewable
energy projects feeding into the public grid.
 1 GO certificate equals 1 MWh of green electricity and is
tradable within the European Energy Certificate System.
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GREEN ENERGY TRACKING SYSTEM
Guarantees of Origin
(grey electricity offsetting)
Bundled green
power product
Redemption of
unbundled GOs
GO
GO
Green power
generator
Green power
consumer
Public grid
* In some cases this role can also be taken on by the green power generator or consumer.
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GREEN ENERGY TRACKING SYSTEM
Guarantees of Origin
(grey electricity offsetting)
Bundled green
power product
Redemption of
unbundled GOs
GO
GO
Green power
generator
Issuing body,
registry
Green power
consumer
Public grid
Certificate attributes
• Name of producer
• Technology type
• Year of installation
• Year of production
• Other characteristics
Requests
issuance
of GOs
* In some cases this role can also be taken on by the green power generator or consumer.
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GREEN ENERGY TRACKING SYSTEM
Guarantees of Origin
(grey electricity offsetting)
Bundled green
power product
Redemption of
unbundled GOs
GO
GO
Green power
generator
Issuing body,
registry
Green power
consumer
Utility /
GO retailer*
Public grid
Certificate attributes
• Name of producer
• Technology type
• Year of installation
• Year of production
• Other characteristics
€
€
Acquires
ownership and
redeems GOs
Requests
issuance
of GOs
* In some cases this role can also be taken on by the green power generator or consumer.
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GUARANTEES OF ORIGIN
Guarantees of Origin
(grey electricity offsetting)
Bundled green
power product
Redemption of
unbundled GOs
GO
GO
• Offset non-renewable energy supply through the
redemption of Guarantees of Origin from renewable
energy projects feeding into the public grid.
 1 GO certificate equals 1 MWh of green electricity and is
tradable within the European Energy Certificate System.
Either …
• … procure bundled GOs from a utility offering a green
power product/green tariff,
 Not all utilities are entirely transparent about origin and
vintage of GOs or provide proof of redemption.
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GUARANTEES OF ORIGIN
Guarantees of Origin
(grey electricity offsetting)
Bundled green
power product
Redemption of
unbundled GOs
GO
GO
• Offset non-renewable energy supply through the
redemption of Guarantees of Origin from renewable
energy projects feeding into the public grid.
 1 GO certificate equals 1 MWh of green electricity and is
tradable within the European Energy Certificate System.
Either …
• … procure bundled GOs from a utility offering a green
power product/green tariff,
 Not all utilities are entirely transparent about origin and
vintage of GOs or provide proof of redemption.
… or …
• … procure and redeem GOs unbundled from power
supply contract.
 Requires retailer of GOs or own trading account and
careful choice of renewable energy projects.
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GOs MARKET SHARES BY COUNTRY IN 2016
Generation
Source: [AIB]
Consumption
Norway
42%
Switzerland
20%
France
8%
Finland
6%
Germany
4%
Netherlands
4%
Denmark
4%
Italy
3%
Sweden
3%
Austria
2%
Iceland
2%
Ireland
1% Belgium
1%
Norway
15%
Switzerland
5%
France
22%
Finland
3%
Netherlands
24%
Denmark
12%
Sweden
13%
Ireland
2%
Czech Rep
1% Other
3%
Note that generation or use of GOs not necessarily relates to RES shares, but can be an indicator for the demand for green power products.
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GOs MARKET SHARES BY TECHNOLOGY IN 2016
Source: [AIB]
Hydro
75%
Wind
9%
Nuclear
7%
Waste
2%
Fuels
1%
Biomass
1%
Geothermal
1% Other
4%
Hydro
64%
Wind
16%
Waste
2%
Biomass
5%
Geothermal
2%
Other
11%
Note that GOs can also expire (12 months after production).
Generation Consumption
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RENEWABLE ENERGY TRACKING SYSTEMS WORLDWIDE
GOs
RECs
RECs
I-RECs &
national REC
system under
development
National
solar RECs &
non-solar RECs &
I-RECs & TIGRs
National zaRECs &
I-RECs & TIGRs
I-RECs &
TIGRs
Source: [CDP]
I-RECs &
TIGRs
TIGRs
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RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY SOURCING METHODS
Self-generation
(on-site or near-site)
Power Purchase
Agreements
Guarantees of Origin
(grey electricity offsetting)
Self-generation with
direct self-consumption
(microgrid)
Self-generation with grid
feed-in and extraction
(net-metering)
PPA with real-time
matching of generation
and consumption
PPA with balanced
consumption over time
Bundled green
power product
Redemption of
unbundled GOs
GO
GO
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GREEN ENERGY OPTIONS: MARKET SHARES (EUROPE 2015)
GOGO
48%
Unbundled
GOs
47%
Green
power
products
Not
specified
3% PPAs
0.6% Self-generation
(on-site or near-site)
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Wind
Solar PV
Fuel-cells, bio-power,
hydro, geothermal, …
46%
45%
Source: [RE100]Based on electricity consumed.
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED36
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
Green energy sourcing options
Quality and price considerations
Policy and market outlook
Recommendations to industrial consumers
Conclusion
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6 CREDIBILITY CRITERIA
ELIGIBLE TECHNOLOGIES
ADDITIONALITY
MARKET BOUNDARIES
FACILITY AGE
VINTAGE
CLAIMING INSTRUMENT
The credibility of a green energy sourcing option should be an
indicator for its quality and accountability, its contribution to the
energy transition, and the buyer’s level of ambition.
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1. CREDIBILITY CRITERION: CLAIMING INSTRUMENT
CLAIMING INSTRUMENT
A clear ownership structure,
contractual connection or robust
green energy tracking system
should be in place, which rule out
any risks of double-counting or
double-claiming.
The credibility of a green energy sourcing option should be an
indicator for its quality and accountability, its contribution to the
energy transition, and the buyer’s level of ambition.
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2. CREDIBILITY CRITERION: ELIGIBLE TECHNOLOGIES
ELIGIBLE TECHNOLOGIES
Solar and wind resources are
eligible green energy options
without exceptions. For geothermal,
hydro and biomass resources
additional requirements apply (e.g.
ecological and social impacts).
Nuclear energy and high-efficiency
fossil use (CHP, CCGT) are not
considered eligible technologies.
The credibility of a green energy sourcing option should be an
indicator for its quality and accountability, its contribution to the
energy transition, and the buyer’s level of ambition.
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3. CREDIBILITY CRITERION: ADDITIONALITY
ADDITIONALITY
Financial additionality should hold
true and prove that revenues from
the green energy purchase enable
the profitability of a green energy
project. Also, green energy
purchase should stimulate new
projects (investment additionality).
The credibility of a green energy sourcing option should be an
indicator for its quality and accountability, its contribution to the
energy transition, and the buyer’s level of ambition.
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED41 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4141 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
4. CREDIBILITY CRITERION: MARKET BOUNDARIES
MARKET BOUNDARIES
Green energy should be sourced as
locally as possible to take into
account the physical flows and to
relieve grid capacities. Generation
and consumption should take place
preferably in the same province,
country, bidding zone or at least
energy tracking system.
Note: It is unlikely that every consumer is
able to comply with this target in a cost-
efficient system with high shares of RES
including offshore wind and hydro.
The credibility of a green energy sourcing option should be an
indicator for its quality and accountability, its contribution to the
energy transition, and the buyer’s level of ambition.
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED42 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4242 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
5. CREDIBILITY CRITERION: FACILITY AGE
FACILITY AGE
Green energy should be sourced
from projects of young age (below
payback period). High-quality green
power labels exclude facilities older
than 14 years.*
The credibility of a green energy sourcing option should be an
indicator for its quality and accountability, its contribution to the
energy transition, and the buyer’s level of ambition.
* Assumed payback period.
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED43 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4343 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
6. CREDIBILITY CRITERION: VINTAGE
VINTAGE
Generated green electricity should
be consumed or taken off instantly.
While green sourcing is usually
balanced on an annual or monthly
basis, real-time matching and
flexibility provide a much higher
contribution to the energy transition
towards high shares of variable
renewable energy sources.
The credibility of a green energy sourcing option should be an
indicator for its quality and accountability, its contribution to the
energy transition, and the buyer’s level of ambition.
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED44 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4444 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
CREDIBILITY ASSESSMENT (INDICATIVE)
Microgrid
Net-metering
Real-time PPA
Balanced PPA
Green power product
Unbundled GOs
The credibility of a green
energy sourcing option should be
an indicator for its quality and
accountability, its contribution to
the energy transition, and the
buyer’s level of ambition.
Note that most criteria depend on the particular configuration of the green energy supply and on the country.
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED45 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4545 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
CREDIBILITY ASSESSMENT (INDICATIVE)
Microgrid
Net-metering
Real-time PPA
Balanced PPA
Green power product
Unbundled GOs
++ depends ++ ++
depends
(++) ++
+ depends ++ +
depends
(+) +
+ depends
depends
(+)
depends
(+)
depends
(+) ++
+ depends
depends
(+)
depends
(o)
depends
(+) +
+ depends
depends
(-)
depends
(-)
depends
(o)
depends
(o)
+ depends
depends
(-)
depends
(-)
depends
(-)
depends
(-)
The credibility of a green
energy sourcing option should be
an indicator for its quality and
accountability, its contribution to
the energy transition, and the
buyer’s level of ambition.
Note that most criteria depend on the particular configuration of the green energy supply and on the country.
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED46 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4646 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
PRICE ASSESSMENT (INDICATIVE, CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE)
Microgrid Net-
metering
Real-time
PPA
Balanced
PPA
Green power
product
Unbundled
GOs
RE costs
Solar PV minimum
LCOE ~ 5 ct/kWh
Note that consumer perspective does not take into account economic/social costs on system level.
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED47 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4747 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
PRICE ASSESSMENT (INDICATIVE, CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE)
Microgrid Net-
metering
Real-time
PPA
Balanced
PPA
Green power
product
Unbundled
GOs
RE costs
Additional costs for
flexibility measures
(storage, demand
response)
Solar PV minimum
LCOE ~ 5 ct/kWh
Applicable
taxes/levies
Network
tariffs
Note that consumer perspective does not take into account economic/social costs on system level.
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED48 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4848 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
PRICE ASSESSMENT (INDICATIVE, CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE)
Microgrid Net-
metering
Real-time
PPA
Balanced
PPA
Green power
product
Unbundled
GOs
RE costs
Additional costs for
flexibility measures
(storage, demand
response)
Solar PV minimum
LCOE ~ 5 ct/kWh
Wind minimum
LCOE ~ 3 ct/kWh
Additional costs
for balancing
measures
PPA price
Contractor
premium
Applicable
taxes/levies
Network
tariffs
Note that consumer perspective does not take into account economic/social costs on system level.
Taxes/levies
Network
tariffs
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED49 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4949 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
PRICE ASSESSMENT (INDICATIVE, CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE)
Microgrid Net-
metering
Real-time
PPA
Balanced
PPA
Green power
product
Unbundled
GOs
RE costs
Additional costs for
flexibility measures
(storage, demand
response)
Solar PV minimum
LCOE ~ 5 ct/kWh
Wind minimum
LCOE ~ 3 ct/kWh
Additional costs
for balancing
measures
PPA price
Contractor
premium
Wholesale
power price
Utility
premium
GO price
Nordic hydro min.
0.02 ct/kWh
Retailer
premium
Applicable
taxes/levies
Taxes/levies
Network
tariffs
Network
tariffs
Note that consumer perspective does not take into account economic/social costs on system level.
Taxes/levies
Network
tariffs
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED50 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5050 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
PRICE VS. CREDIBILITY (INDICATIVE)
Price
Credibility
The credibility of a green energy sourcing option should be an indicator for its quality and
accountability, its contribution to the energy transition, and the buyer’s level of ambition.
Self-
generation
Power
Purchase
Agreements
Guarantees
of Origin
Microgrid
Net-metering
Balanced
PPA
Real-time
PPA
Unbundled
GOs
Green power
products
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED51
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
Green energy sourcing options
Quality and price considerations
Policy and market outlook
Recommendations to industrial consumers
Conclusion
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED52 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5252 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
EC CLEAN ENERGY PACKAGE –
REVISION OF THE RENEWABLE ENERGY DIRECTIVE (RED II)
Source: [ECb]
• “consolidating the functioning of the Guarantees of Origin (GOs) system”
• “extending the system to renewable gas”
• “making the system mandatory for the disclosure of renewable electricity”
• New approach and governance
• No binding national targets
• No sector specific targets
• Indicative EU renewable
electricity target 2030: 50%
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED53 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5353 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
POLICY OBJECTIVES FOR RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY
Technology &
project
development
costs
Cost of capital
O&M costs
Electricity sales
GOs sales
LCOE Revenues
Reduce costs
• R&D&I
• Low policy and
investment risk
• Planning reliability
Source: [ECd]
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED54 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5454 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
POLICY OBJECTIVES FOR RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY
Technology &
project
development
costs
Cost of capital
O&M costs
Electricity sales
GOs sales
LCOE Revenues
Reduce costs
• R&D&I
• Low policy and
investment risk
• Planning reliability
Increase market
revenues
• Externality pricing
• Balancing and
ancillary services
• System flexibility
• Green power
procurement
Source: [ECd]
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED55 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5555 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
POLICY OBJECTIVES FOR RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY
Technology &
project
development
costs
Cost of capital
O&M costs
Electricity sales
GOs sales
Support
mechanism
LCOE Revenues
Close financing gap
Reduce costs
• R&D&I
• Low policy and
investment risk
• Planning reliability
Increase market
revenues
• Externality pricing
• Balancing and
ancillary services
• System flexibility
• Green power
procurement
Source: [ECd]
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED56 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5656 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
POLICY OBJECTIVES FOR RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY
• Some member states grant producers of renewable electricity both: GOs and subsidies (e.g. feed-in-tariff).
• Some member states grant producers of renewable electricity only GOs or subsidies (e.g. Germany).
Technology &
project
development
costs
Cost of capital
O&M costs
Electricity sales
GOs sales
Support
mechanism
LCOE Revenues
Close financing gap
Reduce costs
• R&D&I
• Low policy and
investment risk
• Planning reliability
Increase market
revenues
• Externality pricing
• Balancing and
ancillary services
• System flexibility
• Green power
procurement
Source: [ECd]
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED57 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5757 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
POLICY OBJECTIVES FOR RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY
• Some member states grant producers of renewable electricity both: GOs and subsidies (e.g. feed-in-tariff).
• Some member states grant producers of renewable electricity only GOs or subsidies (e.g. Germany).
 The latter case is proposed to become EU-wide regulation and
 GOs from supported renewable electricity production are proposed
to be issued and auctioned by member states (RED II Art. 19).
Technology &
project
development
costs
Cost of capital
O&M costs
Electricity sales
GOs sales
Support
mechanism
LCOE Revenues
Close financing gap
Reduce costs
• R&D&I
• Low policy and
investment risk
• Planning reliability
Increase market
revenues
• Externality pricing
• Balancing and
ancillary services
• System flexibility
• Green power
procurement
Source: [ECd]
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED58 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5858 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
CLEAN ENERGY PACKAGE PROPOSALS: OVERVIEW
Proposals
RED Article 19 (2): Auctioning of GOs from
supported renewable energy.
Industry stakeholder
comments
Substantial disputable regulatory change of
the diverse renewable energy markets.
Sources: [ECd], [ECe]
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED59 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5959 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
CLEAN ENERGY PACKAGE PROPOSALS: OVERVIEW
Proposals
RED Article 19 (2): Auctioning of GOs from
supported renewable energy.
Industry stakeholder
comments
Substantial disputable regulatory change of
the diverse renewable energy markets.
RED Article 4: Open and competitive financial
support for electricity from renewable sources.
Technology-specific support should be
feasible and risk for producers limited.
RED Article 15 (9): Administrative barriers to
long-term PPAs to be removed.
Facilitate local contracting and enable multiple
sourcing models.
RED Articles 21&22: Definition of renewable
self-consumers and communities.
Prevention of disproportionate procedures and
charges for self-consumers.
EMR Article 11 (1): Dispatching non-
discriminatory and market based.
Priority dispatch for renewable energy sources
removed from RED.
EMR Article 12 Curtailment or redispatching
non-discriminatory and market-based
(preferred option).
Principles establishing the ‘last-curtailment of
RES’.
Sources: [ECd], [ECe]
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED60 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6060 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
PRICE TRENDS (INDICATIVE)
Unbundled
GOs
Green power
product
Balanced
PPA
Real-time
PPA
Net-
metering
Microgrid
Price
Analysts expect slightly
rising prices for GOs.
Wholesale
prices also
expected to
rise.
LCOE from renewables falling.
But increasing demand and
link to wholesale market.
Flex technologies
expected to
become cost-
effective.
Flex technologies
expected to
become cost-
effective.
LCOE from renewables falling.
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED61 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6161 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
WEBINAR ANNOUNCEMENT
Current trends in corporate renewable sourcing:
the producer and the consumer perspective
26 October 2017 @ 15:00 CEST.
Speaker: Malte Gephart (Ecofys)
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED62
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
Green energy sourcing options
Quality and price considerations
Policy and market outlook
Recommendations to industrial consumers
Conclusion
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED63 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6363 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
HOW TO:
PUT TOGETHER A GREEN ENERGY SOURCING STRATEGY
GOAL
• Does the green strategy
follow national or global goals?
• Short-term switch to 100% green
or gradual shift over years?
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED64 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6464 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
HOW TO:
PUT TOGETHER A GREEN ENERGY SOURCING STRATEGY
GOAL
TIME
FRAME • Does the timeframe allow for
lead times of projects for self-
generation or PPAs?
• Does the green strategy
follow national or global goals?
• Short-term switch to 100% green
or gradual shift over years?
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED65 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6565 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
HOW TO:
PUT TOGETHER A GREEN ENERGY SOURCING STRATEGY
BUDGET
GOAL
TIME
FRAME
• Capex vs. Opex
• Does finance department
demand max. payback period?
• Invest into own plant or pay
supplier/contractor?
• Does the timeframe allow for
lead times of projects for self-
generation or PPAs?
• Does the green strategy
follow national or global goals?
• Short-term switch to 100% green
or gradual shift over years?
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED66 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6666 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
HOW TO:
PUT TOGETHER A GREEN ENERGY SOURCING STRATEGY
BUDGET
GOAL
LOCATION
TIME
FRAME
• Capex vs. Opex
• Does finance department
demand max. payback period?
• Invest into own plant or pay
supplier/contractor? • Is on-site or near-site
generation an option?
• Are projects in the same
region available for PPA?
• Does the timeframe allow for
lead times of projects for self-
generation or PPAs?
• Does the green strategy
follow national or global goals?
• Short-term switch to 100% green
or gradual shift over years?
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED67 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6767 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
3-PHASE APPROACH TO IMPLEMENT GREEN ENERGY
SOURCING
Phase I:
Analysis
Phase II:
Strategy
Phase III:
Execution
Step 1: Analyse energy
consumption and future
demand.
Step 2: Analyse potential for
flexibility (e.g. load
management).
Step 3: Analyse potential for
on-site or near-site self-
generation.
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED68 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6868 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
3-PHASE APPROACH TO IMPLEMENT GREEN ENERGY
SOURCING
Phase I:
Analysis
Phase II:
Strategy
Phase III:
Execution
Step 1: Analyse energy
consumption and future
demand.
Step 2: Analyse potential for
flexibility (e.g. load
management).
Step 1: Develop a corporate
energy strategy in line with
overall CSR objectives.
Step 2: Evaluate options for
green energy supply (potential
costs, risks, benefits).
Step 3: Draft RFPs for green
energy supply under defined
conditions.
Step 3: Analyse potential for
on-site or near-site self-
generation.
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED69 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6969 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
3-PHASE APPROACH TO IMPLEMENT GREEN ENERGY
SOURCING
Phase I:
Analysis
Phase II:
Strategy
Phase III:
Execution
Step 1: Analyse energy
consumption and future
demand.
Step 2: Analyse potential for
flexibility (e.g. load
management).
Step 1: Develop a corporate
energy strategy in line with
overall CSR objectives.
Step 2: Evaluate options for
green energy supply (potential
costs, risks, benefits).
Step 3: Draft RFPs for green
energy supply under defined
conditions.
Step 1: Market RFPs and
evaluate bids from green
energy suppliers (long list).
Step 2: Perform legal, financial
and technical assessment of
potential suppliers (short list).
Step 3: Analyse potential for
on-site or near-site self-
generation.
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED70 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED7070 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
CORPORATE STRATEGY MAY INCLUDE MORE THAN ONE
SOURCING METHOD
Self-generation
(on-site or near-site)
Power Purchase
Agreements
Guarantees of Origin
(grey electricity offsetting)
Step 1: Develop a corporate
energy strategy in line with
overall CSR objectives.
Step 2: Evaluate options for
green energy supply (potential
costs, risks, benefits).
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED71 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED7171 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
HOW TO:
CHOOSE A GREEN ENERGY SUPPLIER
• Large consumers often put their (green) energy demand out for tender.
• Bids in response to a Request for Proposals are usually evaluated based on various
criteria, both cost and non-cost related.
Scoring method based
on lowest/highest bids
Applicable qualitative
rating scales
Monetary
• Levelized Cost Analysis
- Electric tariffs and escalation
- Maintenance costs
- Tax benefits and liabilities
- Utility incentives
- Cash flow, NPV, IRR and payback
• Based on spreadsheet and input from
bidders (8,760 hour load shape data)
Qualitative
• Experience / management
• Equipment
• Site control, permitting plan
• Creditworthiness
• Guarantees, warranty, risks
• Impact on the environment
• Degree of acceptance of RFP terms and
conditions
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED72
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
Green energy sourcing options
Quality and price considerations
Policy and market outlook
Recommendations to industrial consumers
Conclusion
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED73 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED7373 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
CONCLUSION
• A range of green sourcing options exist, that can fit into an overall
sustainability strategy for industrial consumers.
• The credibility of green energy sourcing depends on the selected option and the
design of the supply.
• High-quality green power products sourcing from new, local renewable energy
projects and Power Purchase Agreements are perceived credible.
• On-site or near-site self-generation shows the highest credibility ranking.
• Guarantees of Origin from conventional renewable energy assets (northern hydro)
are perceived as least credible.
• Implementation of flexibility technologies enhances contribution to the energy
transition and improves credibility of green energy sourcing.
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED74
CONNECT WITH US
ECOFYS.COM
@ecofys
fb.com/ecofys
linkedin.com/company/ecofys
xing.com/companies/ecofysgermanygmbh
slideshare.net/Ecofys
@NavigantEnergy
@NavigantRsrch
linkedin.com/company/navigant-energy
NAVIGANT.COM
/ ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED75
BENJAMIN MUNZEL
Senior Consultant
+31 (0) 30 662-3023
b.munzel@ecofys.com
CONTACT

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Corporate Green Energy Sourcing

  • 1. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED1 LEONARDO ENERGY WEBINAR INTRODUCTION TO GREEN ENERGY SOURCING FOR INDUSTRIAL CUSTOMERS 14 SEPTEMBER 2017 BENJAMIN MUNZEL
  • 2. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED2 POINTS FOR DISCUSSION • How can the different options for green energy sourcing be designed and combined? • How can the different options be differentiated in terms of credibility and price? • What are the implications of the Clean Energy Package? • Which steps should industrial consumers follow to implement credible green energy sourcing?
  • 3. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Green energy sourcing options Quality and price considerations Policy and market outlook Recommendations to industrial consumers Conclusion
  • 4. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED44 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED AT A GLANCE: ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY Global consulting company founded in 1984 with the mission to enable sustainable energy for everyone – since 2016, Ecofys has been part of Navigant’s global Energy practice We have over 600 experts skilled in energy, climate, environment, economy, communication, law, and psychology – in 2007, 11 of our experts supporting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were awarded the Nobel Prize together with Al Gore More than 30 years of experience in developing and evaluating policies, sustainability strategies, and scenarios for companies and sectors provides us with deep knowledge of markets and consumer behaviour Our strength lies in our strategic understanding of complex energy and climate transition issues: Ecofys connects the dots within the triangle between governments, energy players, and energy-intensive end-users Ecofys has five offices in four countries: Utrecht, the Netherlands; Cologne & Berlin, Germany; Brussels, Belgium; London, United Kingdom – as part of Navigant, our experts are based in more than 20 offices in the US and Canada, Hong Kong, and the Middle East Copyrightinformation:Freeiconsprovidedbyicons8.comasCCBY-ND3.0
  • 5. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED55 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED JOINED FORCES: ECOFYS & NAVIGANT Energy Product Manufacturers & Technology Utilities Industry & Corporates Investors Foundations/NGOs Government Climate Change Mitigation Energy Security Customer Demands & Choice Together, Ecofys and Navigant help clients navigate the energy transition Technology Innovation Policy & Regulatory Challenges Market Demand & Technology Change
  • 6. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED66 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED WHY GREEN ENERGY SOURCING By delivering the Paris Agreement, COP21 repowered climate action on a global scale. Limiting global warming to 2° - preferably 1.5° - is now the new set target. Energy supply causes ¼ of global GHG emissions. An increasing number of industrial companies is joining initiatives to lower GHG emissions or to increase shares of renewables in energy supply, such as RE100, CDP etc. While retail energy prices have been rising for many years, levelised cost of energy from renewable sources have dropped drastically. Both trends are expected to continue, leading to unsubsidized RES competitiveness. Recent auctions resulted in electricity prices from wind or solar at or below wholesale levels. Paris Agreement Industry commitment Cost effectiveness 1 2 3
  • 7. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED7 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED77 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED GREEN ENERGY SOURCING IS CRUCIAL By delivering the Paris Agreement, COP21 repowered climate action on a global scale. Limiting global warming to 2° - preferably 1.5° - is now the new set target. Energy supply causes ¼ of global GHG emissions. Paris Agreement 1 Sources: [SBT], [EEA] Energy supply Transport Industry Residential and commercial Agriculture Waste Aviation GHG emissions pathway Share of energy supply in EU emissions 30%
  • 8. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED8 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED88 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED MANY COMPANIES ARE ENGAGING IN GREEN ENERGY An increasing number of industrial companies is joining initiatives to lower GHG emissions or to increase shares of renewables in energy supply, such as RE100, CDP etc. Industry commitment 2 Sources: [SBT], [CDP], [RE100] 5,600 companies are disclosing their GHG emissions. 297 companies are setting individual targets compatible with the 2° target. 102 of the world's most influential companies committed to 100% renewable power.* * Most plan to achieve this target by 2020. Some have committed for later years (max. 2050). Some are already sourcing 100% green energy.
  • 9. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED9 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED99 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED GREEN ENERGY IS BECOMING COST-EFFECTIVE While retail energy prices have been rising for many years, levelised cost of energy from renewable sources have dropped drastically. Both trends are expected to continue, leading to unsubsidized RES competitiveness. Recent auctions resulted in electricity prices from wind or solar at or below wholesale levels. Cost effectiveness 3 Rising retail electricity prices 1 Falling LCOE from RES 2 0 50 100 150 200 250 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Electricityretailprice[€/MWh] Italy United Kingdom Malta Germany Cyprus Ireland Latvia Slovakia Portugal Belgium Spain Greece Denmark Lithuania France Austria Hungary Netherlands Croatia Poland Estonia Romania Czech Republic Slovenia Finland Bulgaria Luxembourg Sweden EU average 2.3% annual increase in EU Sources: [ECa], [Ecofys], [EIA] 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Wind Solar 12% 30% annual decrease LCOE[€/MWh] 1 industrial consumers 2 global average
  • 10. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED10 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED1010 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED WHY GREEN ENERGY SOURCING By delivering the Paris Agreement, COP21 repowered climate action on a global scale. Limiting global warming to 2° - preferably 1.5° - is now the new set target. Energy supply causes ¼ of global GHG emissions. An increasing number of industrial companies is joining initiatives to lower GHG emissions or to increase shares of renewables in energy supply, such as RE100, CDP etc. While retail energy prices have been rising for many years, levelised cost of energy from renewable sources have dropped drastically. Both trends are expected to continue, leading to unsubsidized RES competitiveness. Recent auctions resulted in electricity prices from wind or solar at or below wholesale levels. Paris Agreement Industry commitment Cost effectiveness 1 2 3
  • 11. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED11 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Green energy sourcing options Quality and price considerations Policy and market outlook Recommendations to industrial consumers Conclusion
  • 12. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED12 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED1212 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3 RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY SOURCING METHODS: OWNERSHIP AND LOCATION Location/ Proximity Ownership On-siteNear-siteOff-site, same country Off-site, neighbouring country Self-owned Leased 3rd-party owned (contracted) 3rd-party owned (retailed)
  • 13. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED13 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED1313 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3 RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY SOURCING METHODS: OWNERSHIP AND LOCATION Location/ Proximity Ownership On-siteNear-siteOff-site, same country Off-site, neighbouring country Self-owned Leased 3rd-party owned (contracted) 3rd-party owned (retailed) Self- generation Power Purchase Agreements Guarantees of Origin Google/Apple/… windfarms
  • 14. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED14 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED1414 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY SOURCING METHODS Self-generation (on-site or near-site) Power Purchase Agreements Guarantees of Origin (grey electricity offsetting) Self-generation with direct self-consumption (microgrid) Self-generation with grid feed-in and extraction (net-metering) PPA with real-time matching of generation and consumption PPA with balanced consumption over time Bundled green power product Redemption of unbundled GOs GO GO
  • 15. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED15 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED1515 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED GREEN ENERGY SELF-GENERATION Self-generation (on-site or near-site) Self-generation with direct self-consumption (microgrid) Self-generation with grid feed-in and extraction (net-metering) • Install renewable energy system (e.g. solar panels, wind turbines) on or near company site.  Various finance, operating and ownership models with different risk profiles and tax/levy obligations possible.
  • 16. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED16 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED1616 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED GREEN ENERGY SELF-GENERATION Self-generation (on-site or near-site) Self-generation with direct self-consumption (microgrid) Self-generation with grid feed-in and extraction (net-metering) • Install renewable energy system (e.g. solar panels, wind turbines) on or near company site.  Various finance, operating and ownership models with different risk profiles and tax/levy obligations possible. Either … • … operate energy system as island/microgrid for direct self-consumption of generated electricity,  Requires system flexibility: flexible generation (e.g. biogas CHP), energy storage (e.g. battery), flexible demand (e.g. load management).
  • 17. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED17 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED1717 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED THE FLEXIBILITY GAP Share of variable renewable energy sources Flexibility Existing supply flex New supply flex Storage flex Demand flex Flexibility gap Self-generation (on-site or near-site) Self-generation with direct self-consumption (microgrid) Self-generation with grid feed-in and extraction (net-metering)
  • 18. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED18 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED1818 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED GREEN ENERGY SELF-GENERATION Self-generation (on-site or near-site) Self-generation with direct self-consumption (microgrid) Self-generation with grid feed-in and extraction (net-metering) • Install renewable energy system (e.g. solar panels, wind turbines) on or near company site.  Various finance, operating and ownership models with different risk profiles and tax/levy obligations possible. Either … • … operate energy system as island/microgrid for direct self-consumption of generated electricity,  Requires system flexibility: flexible generation (e.g. biogas CHP), energy storage (e.g. battery), flexible demand (e.g. load management). … or … • … connect the system to the grid for balanced green energy consumption.  Risk of potential double-claiming needs to be ruled out (in some countries, mind public financial support and GOs).  May require bidding in RES auctions (in some countries, ‘grid congestion zones’).
  • 19. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED19 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED1919 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED LEAD TIMES FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS Self-generation (on-site or near-site) Self-generation with direct self-consumption (microgrid) Self-generation with grid feed-in and extraction (net-metering) Wind EnergySolar Energy 2 2 months 5 months 2 months 3 months 20 years Idea Feasibility Development Design, lease, permits, commitment Consent Financing, contracting Construction Operation 2 6 months 2-3 years 6 months 20-25 years 1.5 years 1year 5years
  • 20. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED20 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED2020 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED GREEN POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENTS Power Purchase Agreements PPA with real-time matching of generation and consumption PPA with balanced consumption over time • Sign a long-term contract (typically 10+ years) to procure energy and GOs from a specific off-site renewable energy project (e.g. wind farm) pre- or post-project development.  Various terms, participation and pricing models possible but not in all countries/jurisdictions.  Some corporates also own or invest in the renewable generation assets directly.
  • 21. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED21 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED2121 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED COMMON PPA DESIGNS PPA price Sleeving fee Sleeved / physical RE power RE power RE generator Utility Consumer
  • 22. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED22 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED2222 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED COMMON PPA DESIGNS PPA price Sleeving fee Sleeved / physical Synthetic / virtual RE power RE power Compensation (PPA price) Retail price Power Power Market price Guarantee of origin RE generator Utility Consumer
  • 23. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED23 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED2323 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED GREEN POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENTS Power Purchase Agreements PPA with real-time matching of generation and consumption PPA with balanced consumption over time • Sign a long-term contract (typically 10+ years) to procure energy and GOs from a specific off-site renewable energy project (e.g. wind farm) pre- or post-project development.  Various terms, participation and pricing models possible but not in all countries/jurisdictions.  Some corporates also own or invest in the renewable generation assets directly. Either … • … match generation and consumption at all times,  Requires flexible demand and/or combination of various distributed energy resources (virtual power plant).
  • 24. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED24 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED2424 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED GREEN POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENTS Power Purchase Agreements PPA with real-time matching of generation and consumption PPA with balanced consumption over time • Sign a long-term contract (typically 10+ years) to procure energy and GOs from a specific off-site renewable energy project (e.g. wind farm) pre- or post-project development.  Various terms, participation and pricing models possible but not in all countries/jurisdictions.  Some corporates also own or invest in the renewable generation assets directly. Either … • … match generation and consumption at all times,  Requires flexible demand and/or combination of various distributed energy resources (virtual power plant). … or … • … balance generation and consumption over a specific period of time.  Requires good knowledge of (future) power demand.  Balancing risk outsourced to grid operator.
  • 25. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED25 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED2525 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED GUARANTEES OF ORIGIN Guarantees of Origin (grey electricity offsetting) Bundled green power product Redemption of unbundled GOs GO GO • Offset non-renewable energy supply through the redemption of Guarantees of Origin from renewable energy projects feeding into the public grid.  1 GO certificate equals 1 MWh of green electricity and is tradable within the European Energy Certificate System.
  • 26. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED26 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED2626 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED GREEN ENERGY TRACKING SYSTEM Guarantees of Origin (grey electricity offsetting) Bundled green power product Redemption of unbundled GOs GO GO Green power generator Green power consumer Public grid * In some cases this role can also be taken on by the green power generator or consumer.
  • 27. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED27 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED2727 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED GREEN ENERGY TRACKING SYSTEM Guarantees of Origin (grey electricity offsetting) Bundled green power product Redemption of unbundled GOs GO GO Green power generator Issuing body, registry Green power consumer Public grid Certificate attributes • Name of producer • Technology type • Year of installation • Year of production • Other characteristics Requests issuance of GOs * In some cases this role can also be taken on by the green power generator or consumer.
  • 28. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED28 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED2828 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED GREEN ENERGY TRACKING SYSTEM Guarantees of Origin (grey electricity offsetting) Bundled green power product Redemption of unbundled GOs GO GO Green power generator Issuing body, registry Green power consumer Utility / GO retailer* Public grid Certificate attributes • Name of producer • Technology type • Year of installation • Year of production • Other characteristics € € Acquires ownership and redeems GOs Requests issuance of GOs * In some cases this role can also be taken on by the green power generator or consumer.
  • 29. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED29 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED2929 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED GUARANTEES OF ORIGIN Guarantees of Origin (grey electricity offsetting) Bundled green power product Redemption of unbundled GOs GO GO • Offset non-renewable energy supply through the redemption of Guarantees of Origin from renewable energy projects feeding into the public grid.  1 GO certificate equals 1 MWh of green electricity and is tradable within the European Energy Certificate System. Either … • … procure bundled GOs from a utility offering a green power product/green tariff,  Not all utilities are entirely transparent about origin and vintage of GOs or provide proof of redemption.
  • 30. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED30 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED3030 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED GUARANTEES OF ORIGIN Guarantees of Origin (grey electricity offsetting) Bundled green power product Redemption of unbundled GOs GO GO • Offset non-renewable energy supply through the redemption of Guarantees of Origin from renewable energy projects feeding into the public grid.  1 GO certificate equals 1 MWh of green electricity and is tradable within the European Energy Certificate System. Either … • … procure bundled GOs from a utility offering a green power product/green tariff,  Not all utilities are entirely transparent about origin and vintage of GOs or provide proof of redemption. … or … • … procure and redeem GOs unbundled from power supply contract.  Requires retailer of GOs or own trading account and careful choice of renewable energy projects.
  • 31. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED31 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED3131 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED GOs MARKET SHARES BY COUNTRY IN 2016 Generation Source: [AIB] Consumption Norway 42% Switzerland 20% France 8% Finland 6% Germany 4% Netherlands 4% Denmark 4% Italy 3% Sweden 3% Austria 2% Iceland 2% Ireland 1% Belgium 1% Norway 15% Switzerland 5% France 22% Finland 3% Netherlands 24% Denmark 12% Sweden 13% Ireland 2% Czech Rep 1% Other 3% Note that generation or use of GOs not necessarily relates to RES shares, but can be an indicator for the demand for green power products.
  • 32. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED32 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED3232 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED GOs MARKET SHARES BY TECHNOLOGY IN 2016 Source: [AIB] Hydro 75% Wind 9% Nuclear 7% Waste 2% Fuels 1% Biomass 1% Geothermal 1% Other 4% Hydro 64% Wind 16% Waste 2% Biomass 5% Geothermal 2% Other 11% Note that GOs can also expire (12 months after production). Generation Consumption
  • 33. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED33 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED3333 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED RENEWABLE ENERGY TRACKING SYSTEMS WORLDWIDE GOs RECs RECs I-RECs & national REC system under development National solar RECs & non-solar RECs & I-RECs & TIGRs National zaRECs & I-RECs & TIGRs I-RECs & TIGRs Source: [CDP] I-RECs & TIGRs TIGRs
  • 34. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED34 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED3434 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY SOURCING METHODS Self-generation (on-site or near-site) Power Purchase Agreements Guarantees of Origin (grey electricity offsetting) Self-generation with direct self-consumption (microgrid) Self-generation with grid feed-in and extraction (net-metering) PPA with real-time matching of generation and consumption PPA with balanced consumption over time Bundled green power product Redemption of unbundled GOs GO GO
  • 35. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED35 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED3535 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED GREEN ENERGY OPTIONS: MARKET SHARES (EUROPE 2015) GOGO 48% Unbundled GOs 47% Green power products Not specified 3% PPAs 0.6% Self-generation (on-site or near-site) 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Wind Solar PV Fuel-cells, bio-power, hydro, geothermal, … 46% 45% Source: [RE100]Based on electricity consumed.
  • 36. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED36 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Green energy sourcing options Quality and price considerations Policy and market outlook Recommendations to industrial consumers Conclusion
  • 37. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED37 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED3737 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 6 CREDIBILITY CRITERIA ELIGIBLE TECHNOLOGIES ADDITIONALITY MARKET BOUNDARIES FACILITY AGE VINTAGE CLAIMING INSTRUMENT The credibility of a green energy sourcing option should be an indicator for its quality and accountability, its contribution to the energy transition, and the buyer’s level of ambition.
  • 38. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED38 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED3838 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 1. CREDIBILITY CRITERION: CLAIMING INSTRUMENT CLAIMING INSTRUMENT A clear ownership structure, contractual connection or robust green energy tracking system should be in place, which rule out any risks of double-counting or double-claiming. The credibility of a green energy sourcing option should be an indicator for its quality and accountability, its contribution to the energy transition, and the buyer’s level of ambition.
  • 39. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED39 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED3939 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2. CREDIBILITY CRITERION: ELIGIBLE TECHNOLOGIES ELIGIBLE TECHNOLOGIES Solar and wind resources are eligible green energy options without exceptions. For geothermal, hydro and biomass resources additional requirements apply (e.g. ecological and social impacts). Nuclear energy and high-efficiency fossil use (CHP, CCGT) are not considered eligible technologies. The credibility of a green energy sourcing option should be an indicator for its quality and accountability, its contribution to the energy transition, and the buyer’s level of ambition.
  • 40. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED40 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4040 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3. CREDIBILITY CRITERION: ADDITIONALITY ADDITIONALITY Financial additionality should hold true and prove that revenues from the green energy purchase enable the profitability of a green energy project. Also, green energy purchase should stimulate new projects (investment additionality). The credibility of a green energy sourcing option should be an indicator for its quality and accountability, its contribution to the energy transition, and the buyer’s level of ambition.
  • 41. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED41 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4141 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 4. CREDIBILITY CRITERION: MARKET BOUNDARIES MARKET BOUNDARIES Green energy should be sourced as locally as possible to take into account the physical flows and to relieve grid capacities. Generation and consumption should take place preferably in the same province, country, bidding zone or at least energy tracking system. Note: It is unlikely that every consumer is able to comply with this target in a cost- efficient system with high shares of RES including offshore wind and hydro. The credibility of a green energy sourcing option should be an indicator for its quality and accountability, its contribution to the energy transition, and the buyer’s level of ambition.
  • 42. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED42 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4242 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 5. CREDIBILITY CRITERION: FACILITY AGE FACILITY AGE Green energy should be sourced from projects of young age (below payback period). High-quality green power labels exclude facilities older than 14 years.* The credibility of a green energy sourcing option should be an indicator for its quality and accountability, its contribution to the energy transition, and the buyer’s level of ambition. * Assumed payback period.
  • 43. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED43 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4343 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 6. CREDIBILITY CRITERION: VINTAGE VINTAGE Generated green electricity should be consumed or taken off instantly. While green sourcing is usually balanced on an annual or monthly basis, real-time matching and flexibility provide a much higher contribution to the energy transition towards high shares of variable renewable energy sources. The credibility of a green energy sourcing option should be an indicator for its quality and accountability, its contribution to the energy transition, and the buyer’s level of ambition.
  • 44. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED44 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4444 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED CREDIBILITY ASSESSMENT (INDICATIVE) Microgrid Net-metering Real-time PPA Balanced PPA Green power product Unbundled GOs The credibility of a green energy sourcing option should be an indicator for its quality and accountability, its contribution to the energy transition, and the buyer’s level of ambition. Note that most criteria depend on the particular configuration of the green energy supply and on the country.
  • 45. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED45 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4545 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED CREDIBILITY ASSESSMENT (INDICATIVE) Microgrid Net-metering Real-time PPA Balanced PPA Green power product Unbundled GOs ++ depends ++ ++ depends (++) ++ + depends ++ + depends (+) + + depends depends (+) depends (+) depends (+) ++ + depends depends (+) depends (o) depends (+) + + depends depends (-) depends (-) depends (o) depends (o) + depends depends (-) depends (-) depends (-) depends (-) The credibility of a green energy sourcing option should be an indicator for its quality and accountability, its contribution to the energy transition, and the buyer’s level of ambition. Note that most criteria depend on the particular configuration of the green energy supply and on the country.
  • 46. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED46 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4646 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED PRICE ASSESSMENT (INDICATIVE, CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE) Microgrid Net- metering Real-time PPA Balanced PPA Green power product Unbundled GOs RE costs Solar PV minimum LCOE ~ 5 ct/kWh Note that consumer perspective does not take into account economic/social costs on system level.
  • 47. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED47 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4747 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED PRICE ASSESSMENT (INDICATIVE, CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE) Microgrid Net- metering Real-time PPA Balanced PPA Green power product Unbundled GOs RE costs Additional costs for flexibility measures (storage, demand response) Solar PV minimum LCOE ~ 5 ct/kWh Applicable taxes/levies Network tariffs Note that consumer perspective does not take into account economic/social costs on system level.
  • 48. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED48 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4848 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED PRICE ASSESSMENT (INDICATIVE, CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE) Microgrid Net- metering Real-time PPA Balanced PPA Green power product Unbundled GOs RE costs Additional costs for flexibility measures (storage, demand response) Solar PV minimum LCOE ~ 5 ct/kWh Wind minimum LCOE ~ 3 ct/kWh Additional costs for balancing measures PPA price Contractor premium Applicable taxes/levies Network tariffs Note that consumer perspective does not take into account economic/social costs on system level. Taxes/levies Network tariffs
  • 49. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED49 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED4949 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED PRICE ASSESSMENT (INDICATIVE, CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE) Microgrid Net- metering Real-time PPA Balanced PPA Green power product Unbundled GOs RE costs Additional costs for flexibility measures (storage, demand response) Solar PV minimum LCOE ~ 5 ct/kWh Wind minimum LCOE ~ 3 ct/kWh Additional costs for balancing measures PPA price Contractor premium Wholesale power price Utility premium GO price Nordic hydro min. 0.02 ct/kWh Retailer premium Applicable taxes/levies Taxes/levies Network tariffs Network tariffs Note that consumer perspective does not take into account economic/social costs on system level. Taxes/levies Network tariffs
  • 50. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED50 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5050 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED PRICE VS. CREDIBILITY (INDICATIVE) Price Credibility The credibility of a green energy sourcing option should be an indicator for its quality and accountability, its contribution to the energy transition, and the buyer’s level of ambition. Self- generation Power Purchase Agreements Guarantees of Origin Microgrid Net-metering Balanced PPA Real-time PPA Unbundled GOs Green power products
  • 51. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED51 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Green energy sourcing options Quality and price considerations Policy and market outlook Recommendations to industrial consumers Conclusion
  • 52. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED52 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5252 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED EC CLEAN ENERGY PACKAGE – REVISION OF THE RENEWABLE ENERGY DIRECTIVE (RED II) Source: [ECb] • “consolidating the functioning of the Guarantees of Origin (GOs) system” • “extending the system to renewable gas” • “making the system mandatory for the disclosure of renewable electricity” • New approach and governance • No binding national targets • No sector specific targets • Indicative EU renewable electricity target 2030: 50%
  • 53. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED53 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5353 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED POLICY OBJECTIVES FOR RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY Technology & project development costs Cost of capital O&M costs Electricity sales GOs sales LCOE Revenues Reduce costs • R&D&I • Low policy and investment risk • Planning reliability Source: [ECd]
  • 54. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED54 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5454 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED POLICY OBJECTIVES FOR RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY Technology & project development costs Cost of capital O&M costs Electricity sales GOs sales LCOE Revenues Reduce costs • R&D&I • Low policy and investment risk • Planning reliability Increase market revenues • Externality pricing • Balancing and ancillary services • System flexibility • Green power procurement Source: [ECd]
  • 55. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED55 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5555 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED POLICY OBJECTIVES FOR RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY Technology & project development costs Cost of capital O&M costs Electricity sales GOs sales Support mechanism LCOE Revenues Close financing gap Reduce costs • R&D&I • Low policy and investment risk • Planning reliability Increase market revenues • Externality pricing • Balancing and ancillary services • System flexibility • Green power procurement Source: [ECd]
  • 56. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED56 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5656 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED POLICY OBJECTIVES FOR RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY • Some member states grant producers of renewable electricity both: GOs and subsidies (e.g. feed-in-tariff). • Some member states grant producers of renewable electricity only GOs or subsidies (e.g. Germany). Technology & project development costs Cost of capital O&M costs Electricity sales GOs sales Support mechanism LCOE Revenues Close financing gap Reduce costs • R&D&I • Low policy and investment risk • Planning reliability Increase market revenues • Externality pricing • Balancing and ancillary services • System flexibility • Green power procurement Source: [ECd]
  • 57. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED57 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5757 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED POLICY OBJECTIVES FOR RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY • Some member states grant producers of renewable electricity both: GOs and subsidies (e.g. feed-in-tariff). • Some member states grant producers of renewable electricity only GOs or subsidies (e.g. Germany).  The latter case is proposed to become EU-wide regulation and  GOs from supported renewable electricity production are proposed to be issued and auctioned by member states (RED II Art. 19). Technology & project development costs Cost of capital O&M costs Electricity sales GOs sales Support mechanism LCOE Revenues Close financing gap Reduce costs • R&D&I • Low policy and investment risk • Planning reliability Increase market revenues • Externality pricing • Balancing and ancillary services • System flexibility • Green power procurement Source: [ECd]
  • 58. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED58 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5858 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED CLEAN ENERGY PACKAGE PROPOSALS: OVERVIEW Proposals RED Article 19 (2): Auctioning of GOs from supported renewable energy. Industry stakeholder comments Substantial disputable regulatory change of the diverse renewable energy markets. Sources: [ECd], [ECe]
  • 59. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED59 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED5959 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED CLEAN ENERGY PACKAGE PROPOSALS: OVERVIEW Proposals RED Article 19 (2): Auctioning of GOs from supported renewable energy. Industry stakeholder comments Substantial disputable regulatory change of the diverse renewable energy markets. RED Article 4: Open and competitive financial support for electricity from renewable sources. Technology-specific support should be feasible and risk for producers limited. RED Article 15 (9): Administrative barriers to long-term PPAs to be removed. Facilitate local contracting and enable multiple sourcing models. RED Articles 21&22: Definition of renewable self-consumers and communities. Prevention of disproportionate procedures and charges for self-consumers. EMR Article 11 (1): Dispatching non- discriminatory and market based. Priority dispatch for renewable energy sources removed from RED. EMR Article 12 Curtailment or redispatching non-discriminatory and market-based (preferred option). Principles establishing the ‘last-curtailment of RES’. Sources: [ECd], [ECe]
  • 60. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED60 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6060 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED PRICE TRENDS (INDICATIVE) Unbundled GOs Green power product Balanced PPA Real-time PPA Net- metering Microgrid Price Analysts expect slightly rising prices for GOs. Wholesale prices also expected to rise. LCOE from renewables falling. But increasing demand and link to wholesale market. Flex technologies expected to become cost- effective. Flex technologies expected to become cost- effective. LCOE from renewables falling.
  • 61. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED61 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6161 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED WEBINAR ANNOUNCEMENT Current trends in corporate renewable sourcing: the producer and the consumer perspective 26 October 2017 @ 15:00 CEST. Speaker: Malte Gephart (Ecofys)
  • 62. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED62 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Green energy sourcing options Quality and price considerations Policy and market outlook Recommendations to industrial consumers Conclusion
  • 63. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED63 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6363 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED HOW TO: PUT TOGETHER A GREEN ENERGY SOURCING STRATEGY GOAL • Does the green strategy follow national or global goals? • Short-term switch to 100% green or gradual shift over years?
  • 64. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED64 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6464 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED HOW TO: PUT TOGETHER A GREEN ENERGY SOURCING STRATEGY GOAL TIME FRAME • Does the timeframe allow for lead times of projects for self- generation or PPAs? • Does the green strategy follow national or global goals? • Short-term switch to 100% green or gradual shift over years?
  • 65. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED65 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6565 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED HOW TO: PUT TOGETHER A GREEN ENERGY SOURCING STRATEGY BUDGET GOAL TIME FRAME • Capex vs. Opex • Does finance department demand max. payback period? • Invest into own plant or pay supplier/contractor? • Does the timeframe allow for lead times of projects for self- generation or PPAs? • Does the green strategy follow national or global goals? • Short-term switch to 100% green or gradual shift over years?
  • 66. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED66 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6666 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED HOW TO: PUT TOGETHER A GREEN ENERGY SOURCING STRATEGY BUDGET GOAL LOCATION TIME FRAME • Capex vs. Opex • Does finance department demand max. payback period? • Invest into own plant or pay supplier/contractor? • Is on-site or near-site generation an option? • Are projects in the same region available for PPA? • Does the timeframe allow for lead times of projects for self- generation or PPAs? • Does the green strategy follow national or global goals? • Short-term switch to 100% green or gradual shift over years?
  • 67. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED67 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6767 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3-PHASE APPROACH TO IMPLEMENT GREEN ENERGY SOURCING Phase I: Analysis Phase II: Strategy Phase III: Execution Step 1: Analyse energy consumption and future demand. Step 2: Analyse potential for flexibility (e.g. load management). Step 3: Analyse potential for on-site or near-site self- generation.
  • 68. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED68 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6868 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3-PHASE APPROACH TO IMPLEMENT GREEN ENERGY SOURCING Phase I: Analysis Phase II: Strategy Phase III: Execution Step 1: Analyse energy consumption and future demand. Step 2: Analyse potential for flexibility (e.g. load management). Step 1: Develop a corporate energy strategy in line with overall CSR objectives. Step 2: Evaluate options for green energy supply (potential costs, risks, benefits). Step 3: Draft RFPs for green energy supply under defined conditions. Step 3: Analyse potential for on-site or near-site self- generation.
  • 69. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED69 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED6969 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3-PHASE APPROACH TO IMPLEMENT GREEN ENERGY SOURCING Phase I: Analysis Phase II: Strategy Phase III: Execution Step 1: Analyse energy consumption and future demand. Step 2: Analyse potential for flexibility (e.g. load management). Step 1: Develop a corporate energy strategy in line with overall CSR objectives. Step 2: Evaluate options for green energy supply (potential costs, risks, benefits). Step 3: Draft RFPs for green energy supply under defined conditions. Step 1: Market RFPs and evaluate bids from green energy suppliers (long list). Step 2: Perform legal, financial and technical assessment of potential suppliers (short list). Step 3: Analyse potential for on-site or near-site self- generation.
  • 70. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED70 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED7070 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED CORPORATE STRATEGY MAY INCLUDE MORE THAN ONE SOURCING METHOD Self-generation (on-site or near-site) Power Purchase Agreements Guarantees of Origin (grey electricity offsetting) Step 1: Develop a corporate energy strategy in line with overall CSR objectives. Step 2: Evaluate options for green energy supply (potential costs, risks, benefits).
  • 71. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED71 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED7171 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED HOW TO: CHOOSE A GREEN ENERGY SUPPLIER • Large consumers often put their (green) energy demand out for tender. • Bids in response to a Request for Proposals are usually evaluated based on various criteria, both cost and non-cost related. Scoring method based on lowest/highest bids Applicable qualitative rating scales Monetary • Levelized Cost Analysis - Electric tariffs and escalation - Maintenance costs - Tax benefits and liabilities - Utility incentives - Cash flow, NPV, IRR and payback • Based on spreadsheet and input from bidders (8,760 hour load shape data) Qualitative • Experience / management • Equipment • Site control, permitting plan • Creditworthiness • Guarantees, warranty, risks • Impact on the environment • Degree of acceptance of RFP terms and conditions
  • 72. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED72 TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Green energy sourcing options Quality and price considerations Policy and market outlook Recommendations to industrial consumers Conclusion
  • 73. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED73 / ©2016 NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED7373 / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED CONCLUSION • A range of green sourcing options exist, that can fit into an overall sustainability strategy for industrial consumers. • The credibility of green energy sourcing depends on the selected option and the design of the supply. • High-quality green power products sourcing from new, local renewable energy projects and Power Purchase Agreements are perceived credible. • On-site or near-site self-generation shows the highest credibility ranking. • Guarantees of Origin from conventional renewable energy assets (northern hydro) are perceived as least credible. • Implementation of flexibility technologies enhances contribution to the energy transition and improves credibility of green energy sourcing.
  • 74. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED74 CONNECT WITH US ECOFYS.COM @ecofys fb.com/ecofys linkedin.com/company/ecofys xing.com/companies/ecofysgermanygmbh slideshare.net/Ecofys @NavigantEnergy @NavigantRsrch linkedin.com/company/navigant-energy NAVIGANT.COM
  • 75. / ©ECOFYS, A NAVIGANT COMPANY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED75 BENJAMIN MUNZEL Senior Consultant +31 (0) 30 662-3023 b.munzel@ecofys.com CONTACT