Assessment of smart grid initiatives: the ISGAN smartgrideval toolkit

ISGAN smartgrideval
tutorial
Fabrizio Pilo
Matteo Troncia
April 2020
ISGAN Academy webinar #20
Recorded webinars available at: https://www.iea-isgan.org/our-work/annex-8/

ISGAN in a Nutshell
Created under the auspices of:
the Implementing
Agreement for a
Co-operative
Programme on Smart
Grids
1/8/2018 ISGAN IN A NUTSHELL 2
Strategic platform to support high-level government
knowledge transfer and action for the accelerated
development and deployment of smarter, cleaner
electricity grids around the world
International Smart Grid Action Network is
the only global government-to-
government forum on smart grids.
an initiative of the
Clean Energy
Ministerial (CEM)
Annexes
Annex 1
Global
Smart Grid
Inventory Annex 2
Smart Grid
Case
Studies
Annex 3
Benefit-
Cost
Analyses
and
Toolkits
Annex 4
Synthesis
of Insights
for
Decision
Makers
Annex 5
Smart Grid
Internation
al
Research
Facility
Network
Annex 6
Power
T&D
Systems
Annex 7
Smart Grids
Transitions
Annex 8:
ISGAN
Academy
on Smart
Grids

ISGAN’s worldwide presence
1/8/2018 ISGAN, PRESENTATION TITLE 3

Value proposition
4
ISGAN
Conference
presentations
Policy
briefs Technology
briefs
Technical
papers
Discussion
papers
Webinars
Casebooks
Workshops
Broad international
expert network
Knowledge sharing,
technical assistance,
project coordination
Global, regional &
national policy support
Strategic partnerships
IEA, CEM, GSGF,
Mission Innovation, etc.
Visit our website:
www.iea-isgan.org

ISGAN smartgrideval tutorial
23/04/2020 ISGAN WEBINAR – SMARTGRIDEVAL TUTORIAL 5
• Assessment of smart grid initiatives
• Joint Multi-Criteria Analysis - Cost-Benefit Analysis (MCA-CBA) assessment framework
• The ISGAN smart grid evaluation toolkit assessment approach
• How to create a new assessment activity
• How to create the structure of assessment criteria
• How to define custom criteria
• How to weight the criteria
• How to define the alternatives
• How to read the results
• Concluding remarks
Outline

Assessment of smart grid initiatives
Novel features and enabled services will produce relevant socio-economic impacts
Impact characteristics:
• Wide range impacts
• Indirect/side effects
• Intangible impacts
• Lack of data availability
• Data uncertainty
Implications:
• Not only monetary impacts are of interest
• Identify the impact allocation is difficult
• Quantify all impacts is not possible
• Strategic decision making is under
uncertainty
Smart grid planning calls for effective tools for complex decision-making problems

MCA-CBA: a combined approach
The joint approach:
 relieves the respective lacks
 emphasises the respective strengths
MCA-CBA
Monetary evaluation
CBA
Non-monetary evaluation
MCACBA and MCA
are
complementary tools
 Flexible
 Monetisation of impacts is not mandatory
 Assesses multiple conflicting criteria
 Assures participation and legitimacy
Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)
 Rigorous and rational
 Formalised
 Widely acknowledged
 Easy communication of the results
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA)
Strengths of a combined assessment approach

The prologue
The ongoing webinar presents the ISGAN smart grid evaluation toolkit
which is the outcome of the activities carried out in the context of smart grid assessment
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5HNmd09I6Y
This webinar is the sequel of:
In which:
• the problem of decision-making in the smart
grid contest has been discussed
• the theoretical background about the
assessment methodologies has been illustrated
• the strengths and weaknesses of current
practices have been highlighted

• Joint MCA-CBA assessment framework
Outline

ISGAN smart grid evaluation toolkit
• Decision support tool for evaluating smart grid
projects
• Combines Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) and Multi-
Criteria Analysis (MCA)
• Allows an output-based assessment of smart grid
initiatives based on an automated procedure
• Considers monetary and non-monetary impacts
• Includes the stakeholders’ view in the analysis
Provide a reliable support tool for effectively
orienting the investments and the regulatory
policies on smart grids
Objective:

ISGAN smart grid evaluation toolkit
We already have users from 11 countries
The software allows to make assessment of
- High level and strategic initiatives
- Pilot and demo initiatives
Which assessment activities concern:
• Active Distribution Network planning including
energy storage
• Installation of storage for increase the self-
consumption of houses with PV plants
• Strategies for storage management
• Smart metering deployment
• Strategic roadmaps for deploying smarter grids

The assessment approach
The main goal is to identify the best smart grid option
Complies with international guidelines on project assessment (i.e. EU Joint Research Centre - JRC)
Evaluates the options on 3 different areas
Economic
assessment
Externality impact
assessment
Overall evaluation
Smart grid
deployment merit
assessment

The appraisal structure
A hierarchy of criteria decomposes the decision-making problem
The 3 main branches are independent
CBA indicators:
> Net Present Value (NPV)
> Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
> Cost Benefit Ratio (CBR)
EC – JRC output based indexes:
> Policy Criteria (CRs)
> Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Externality indicators:
> Externality Impact Areas (EIAs)
> Key Performance Indicators (EKPIs)

Key elements of the assessment
Criteria Hierarchy
The structure of
evaluation criteria
Performance Matrix
The table which contains the
value of the attributes of the
alternatives with respect to
each criterion
Weights of criteria
The relevance of criteria for
the decision-making problem
(optional)
SmartGridEval
software
- Ranking of the
alternatives
- MC model of the
problem
- Stability analysis
Input Output

• How to request your account
Outline

How to request your account?
Log-in on the smartgrideval website with provided credentials
Click on the Signup button
Fill the gaps in the Signup page
Check your e-mail, there you will receive your personal invitation code
Request your invitation code by writing at: info.smartgrideval@gmail.com
Click on the Signup button on the bottom of the Signup page
Registration completed, you can Sign In with your account

The landing page: How to Sign In
Insert your credentials
Browse to the ISGAN smartgrideval website and…

User dashboard
Load an existing
planning activity
Start a new
appraisal

What is a Planning Activity
Since each strategic planning activity requires to make the right choice
i.e. identify the best planning alternative available
then as “Planning Activity” we define the container of the decision-making problem
Planning Activity
• the evaluation criteria
• the structure of criteria
• the weights of criteria
• the planning alternatives defined in terms of attributes
Different planning activities represent different decision-making problems

Appraisal of a Planning Activity
Make the appraisal of a planning activity requires to
o Select which of the three branches are included in the assessment
o Define the criteria which compose the evaluation branches
o Define the alternatives in terms of attributes with respect to all criteria
o Load the Performance Matrices of the alternatives
o Select the weighting algorithm and
o Define the weight of the evaluation criteria
o Save the defined structure
o Make the evaluation
The you can analyse the result

User dashboard
Load an existing
planning activity
Start a new
appraisal

Create a new PA from scratch
Select
the tab
In the Planning activity management page
Type the
name of
the PA
Click on
Select
the PA
template

Create a new PA from an existing one
Select the PA
to be cloned
In the Planning activity management page
Type the PA name
Click on
Select the tab

Planning activity overview
Dashboard of the appraisal activity
o GUI that guides the user in the process
o No specific expertise is required
o Only output based data on projects and
stakeholder view information is required
The user can
• Select and/or define the evaluation criteria
• Define the number of planning alternatives
• Check the appraisal progress
• Save the defined structure
• Watch the defined criteria tree
• See the result

Dashboard of the appraisal activity – left panel
Few lines for
describing your PA
Provide tags
Define the
appraisal tree
(checkboxes)
Declare the n. of
design options
Chose the
weighting method

Dashboard of the appraisal activity – right panel
Download the
spreadsheet of your PA
• Download the spreadsheet for:
- Defining the Performance Matrices
- Making simplified CBAs
• Consult the help page for the criteria palette
• Define custom criteria and KPIs
Process To Do List
It gives an overview on what is done and
what is missing in the appraisal process
of your PA

Dashboard of the appraisal activity – bottom section
For saving the
criteria tree
To be pressed once the
criteria tree is defined
before and the data
provision
It shows the diagram
of the defined
criteria tree
Once the criteria tree
is defined and the
input data,
it evaluates the
decision problem
It clears the PA,
it deletes the:
- criteria tree
- input data
- criteria weights

Outline

How to define the appraisal tree
In the Planning activity overview page
Check the checkbox
of the criteria branch
that you want to
include in the PA
assessment
It enables the
corresponding
subbranch section

How to set the Economic branch
Check the checkbox
“Economic criteria”
Check the checkbox of the
economic sub-criteria
you want to include in the
economic branch
One or more sub-criteria can be selected

How to set the Smart Grid branch
Check the checkbox
“Smartgrid criteria”
Click on the “Select criteria”
Dropdown menu
Select one of the “Smart grid criteria”
you want to include in the assessment

How to set the Smart Grid branch
Click on the “Select kpi”
Dropdown menu
Select one of the “Smart grid KPI”
Press on the “Add” button
The criteria list will be updated

How to set the Externality branch
Check the checkbox
“Externality criteria”
Click on the “Select criteria”
Dropdown menu
Select one “Externality criteria”
which you want to include in the
assessment

How to set the Externality branch
Click on the “Select kpi”
Dropdown menu
Select one of the “Externality KPIs”
Press on the “Add” button
The criteria list will be updated

The weighting algorithms

Manual weights
Qualitative weighting by matrices or priority vectors
The criteria weights are determined on the basis of the subjective
preferences expressed by stakeholders or the decision maker.
Entropy, Standard, and Ideal Points weights
Synthetic weighting methods, no user input is required, the weights depend
only on the data available for the alternatives
Recommended when
- the alternative have remarkable differences in performances
- a clear point of view for stakeholder is not available
Details on the algorithms are provided in the User Guide of the software
Hybrid Entropy, Hybrid Standard and Hybrid Ideal Point weights
Mix manual and the synthetic weighting method

Entropy weight: based on the principles of the theory of information, if an attribute carries little
information, then it has little relevance for the decision-making problem. If the alternatives have small
differences in the value of an attribute, then the related weight will have a small value.
Standard weights: based on statistical variance, it considers the dispersion of the attributes’ numerical
values of the alternatives. The greater the variance of a given attribute, the greater the relevance that
the related criterion has for discriminating the alternative, the greater will be the weight.
Ideal Points weights: based on an optimization model which builds a virtual ideal-best alternative,
weights are obtained by optimizing the distance between each alternative and the virtual one and
emphasises the overall score of the real alternative which is closest to the virtual one.
Synthetic methodologies

Hybrid weights: Mix Manual and synthetic weights (Entropy, Standard, or Ideal Point)
Aggregation by product: the weights are obtained combining by a product the synthetic weights
and the subjective weights
Aggregation by linear combination: the weights are obtained by a linear combination of synthetic
weights and subjective weights
Aggregation by power: the weights are obtained by a combining the synthetic weights and the
subjective weights according to an exponential term which models the mutual relevance of the two
evaluation approaches
Aggregation by linear combination and by power require to define a parameter which models the
relevance given to the synthetic and the subjective weights.
Hybrid methodologies

Save the structure
Dashboard of the appraisal activity – bottom section
Once that the structure of criteria has been completely defined
Press “Save structure”
to save your progress

The tree of criteria
In the Show tree page
The tree of criteria is interactive and responsive
The user can
- have an overview of the whole hierarchy
- inspect specific sub-branches

Outline

Dashboard of the appraisal activity – right panel
• Click here to access to the
Manage the custom palette page
How to manage the custom palette

Manage the custom palette
In the Manage custom palette page

Click on the Add button of the criteria section
Provide the
- Criterion ID
- A brief description
- A long description
- The branch to which belongs
Then click “Save”

Click on the Add button of the KPI section
Provide the
- KPI ID
- The parent criterion ID
- A brief description
- A long description
- The branch to which belongs
- If the KPI has to be
maximised or minimised
Then click “Save”

What comes next?
Dashboard of the appraisal activity – right section
Once that the structure of criteria has been saved
the To Do List will highlight
what is missing for completing the assessment

Outline

How to weight the branches
In the Main criteria weights page
Redirected here by clicking on Branch weights in the Todo list
Slide the bars for assigning the weight to main criteria on the top of the three branches
Then press on the “Done” button

How to weight the economic criteria
In the Economic criteria weights page
Redirected here by clicking on Economic criteria weights in the Todo list
Slide the bars for assigning the weight to economic criteria on the top of the three branches
Only the criteria defined in the criteria tree will be available for the weighting
Then press on the “Done” button

How to weight the externality criteria
In the Externality criteria weights page
Redirected here by clicking on Externality criteria weights in the Todo list
Weights can be provided in terms
of Local priority vector
of Pairwise comparison matrix

of Local priority vector
Once completed, press “Done“
Click on
“Choose file”
Select the spreadsheet file which
contains the Local priority vector
Externality
branch
C1
KPI1 KPI2 KPI3
C2
0.8 0.2
0.8
0.1
0.1
0.6 0.1 0.3

Externality criteria
pairwise comparison
Externality KPIs
pairwise comparison
a pairwise comparison of KPIs has
to be made under each externality
criterion
Once completed
Press “Submit“

Outline

Download the
spreadsheet of your PA

Template spreadsheet files
For structure, quantitative performance and weights upload
Performance
matrices for the KPIs
of the three branches
ECOW tab: priority vector for economic criteria weights
EXTW tab: priority vector for externality KPIs weights
FLW tab: priority vector for the main criteria weights
STRUCT tab: resumes the structure of the criteria tree of the PA

How to score the alternatives
In the pages “Performances on economic criteria”, “Performances on smart grid KPIs”, and
“Performances on externality KPIs”
Once completed, press “Done“
KPI 1
ALT1 ALT2 ALT3
Considering the generic structure:
KPI 2
Load the Performance Matrix

Considering the generic structure:
KPI 1
ALT1 ALT2 ALT3
KPI 2

Once completed, press “Submit”

Outline

Decision making
Once
- Weights all criteria
- Performance for all alternatives
with respect to all criteria
are provided
All boxes in the To Do list are
green checked
The appraisal of the PA
can be accomplished
Press the “Eval current PA”
button

Results (01/11)
The Best Alternative

Results (02/11)

Results (04/11)
The Best Alternative for
the economics

Results (05/11)
the smart grid KPI

Results (06/11)
the externality KPI
Externality

Results (07/11)
The Main criteria weights

Results (08/11)
Global priorities of the
KPIs of the decision tree

Results (09/11)
Stability of the
provided solution
The stability of the result: invariance of the best alternative of the final rank.
Stability with respect to criteria weights, the indicator considers the range of criteria weights
within which there is no a change in the final result.
The greater the indicator’s value, the greater is the stability of the solution.

Results (10/11)
evaluated
considering the
synthetic weights

Results (11/11)
Global priorities of the
KPIs of the decision tree
evaluated considering
the synthetic weights

Outline

Concluding remarks
New assessment approaches for properly considering the potential of smart grid
technologies and their wide range impacts are required
• A joint MCA-CBA approach outclasses the weaknesses of both CBA and MCA
by emphasizing their respective strengths
• The MCA-CBA assessment framework supports decision makers to:
• Assess impacts on different areas of interest
• Assess monetary and intangible impacts
• Reduce data requirements for the assessment
• Promote an active participation of stakeholders
The automated analysis of the developed smart grid evaluation toolkit allows to analyse large
sets of planning options (i.e. thousand of alternatives belonging to a Pareto front).

Thank you
Fabrizio Pilo
Matteo Troncia
fabrizio.pilo@unica.it
matteo.troncia@unica.it
info.smartgrideval@gmail.com

Assessment of smart grid initiatives: the ISGAN smartgrideval toolkit

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