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Four Possible Futures for New Zealand - Otago
- 1. Four Possible Futures for New Zealand sustainablefuture.info
- 3. Strategic Knowledge Data Information
- 5. The Law of Large Numbers a thousand in a pinch a million in a cup a billion in a bathtub a trillion in a classroom a quadrillion in 10 football fields, covered 6 feet deep
- 6. The Extremes Inform the Middle
- 7. 1976-1982 Commission for the Future 2009 National Job Summit convenes in Auckland 2008 Morrison & Co. launches One Goal Project 1991 Porter analysis – Upgrading New Zealand’s Competitive Advantage – concludes there is a need to build consensus to improve prosperity 2001 Knowledge Wave conference recommends the “creation of a widely shared vision for New Zealand” 2007- 2010 Sustainable Future’s Project 2058 aims to develop a National Sustainable Development Strategy (NSDS) Initiatives to progress long-term thinking in New Zealand 2010 2000 1990 1980
- 8. The State Sector: Reviewing the landscape* The State of Publicly Funded Science* Walking Backwards into the Future: Contributions of Māori knowledge, traditions and customary law to developing an NSDS* The State of Natural Resources* The State of Critical Infrastructure in New Zealand* (b) New Zealand’s National Assets (c) Future Thinkers Online Video Interviews: World Futures (July 2008 and July 2009) Online Video Conversations: Ideas about the Future (December 2008) Past Future Thinkers: Exploring the Long-term* Project 2058 – The Method Part I: Research Part II: Scenarios Part III: Strategy (d) State of New Zealand’s Future* Report 1 A National Sustainable Development Strategy (August 2007) (a) New Zealand’s Government Report 2 New Zealand Central Government Strategies (August 2007) Report 3 Supporting Local Government (March 2008) Report 4 Institutions for Sustainable Development (October 2008) Report 5 The Common Elements of an NSDS (October 2008) National Sustainable Development Strategy for New Zealand* Report 6 Four Possible Futures for New Zealand in 2058 (December 2008)
- 11. Years it took to reach a market audience of 50 million Information & Ideas – Global Communication
- 15. Te Rauparaha ( 1760s-1849) For fifty years he was the most feared fighting chief and at one stage controlled about ¼ of NZ. He was also considered to be the creator of the famous haka: Ka mate! Ka mate! NZ Chief 1800
- 16. Maori King 1858 King Tawhiao (1822 – 1894)
- 17. Julius Vogel (1835-1899 ) Vogel implemented an immigration and works scheme designed to revive the economy and provide the pre-conditions of economic growth. In ten years he was able to bring about results that would otherwise have taken decades to achieve …and do more to put an end to hostilities than an army of ten thousand men. “ We considered it very desirable, in a young country, that wealth should not be in the hands of a few capitalists [who]…would leave the country, and enjoy elsewhere the wealth so accumulated. ” Prime Minister 1873
- 18. Population
- 19. Population New Zealand has one of the highest rates of combined immigration and emigration (population turnover) in the world .
- 20. Race Relations
- 21. Years of Life Child Teens Parent? G/parent? Child Teens Parent G/parent Male Female 1876 50 years 54 years 1908 61 years 68 years 1955-57 68 years 73 years 2005-07 77 years 82 years 2055-57 ? ?
- 22. Rural/Urban Population Mix 2058 Rural Urban % YEAR
- 23. Ecosystems and Biodiversity 11% National Park Year Est. Area (km2) Abel Tasman 1942 225 Mount Cook 1953 707 Arthur's Pass 1929 1144 Egmont 1900 335 Fiordland 1952 12519 Kahurangi 1996 4520 Mount Aspiring 1964 3555 Nelson Lakes 1956 1018 Paparoa 1987 306 Raikiura 2002 1500 Te Urewera 1954 2127 Tongariro 1887 796 Westland Tai Poutini 1960 1175 Whanganui 1986 742 Total Area in Parks 30669
- 24. Exports & Imports 2008 Exports Dairy 22% Meat 11.7% Mineral Fuels 6.6% Wood 5.0% Machinery 4.8% Aluminium 3.6% Fruit 3.4% 2008 Imports Fuels and oils 16% Machinery 13% Motor vehicles 12% Electrical machinery 8.5%
- 25. Resources
- 26. Agriculture Air Soil Impacts (Who pays for pollution, loss of diversity, loss of options) Quantity (Value Add) Quality (Assurance ) Water
- 28. Not Just Three Islands
- 32. Economic Risks 1967-69 Wool bust 1930 2010 1930-34 Great Depression 1979-82 Second oil shock 1974-77 First oil shock 1991-92 Recession 1997-99 Asian Crisis 2008-? Current recession 1970 1980 2000 1990
- 33. Benchmarking UN Human Development Report 2007/2008 and 2008 Update Total Human Development Index Includes Education Index Includes Disparity of income ( ratio of richest 10% to poorest 10%) Includes RST expenditure (% GDP) Includes GDP (per capita) 1. Iceland (0.968) 1= Australia (0.993) 1. Japan (4.5) 1. Israel (4.46) 1. Luxembourg (60 228) 3. Australia (0.962) 1= New Zealand (0.993) 42. Ireland (9.4) 20. Australia (1.70) 16. Australia (31 794) 19. Italy (0.945) 6. Norway (0.991) 64. Macedonia (1.25) 25. Russia (1.17) 27. UAE (25 514) 20. New Zealand (0.944) 12. Ireland (0.978) 65. New Zealand (12.5) 26. New Zealand (1.16) 28. New Zealand (24 996) 21. UK (0.942) 18. UK (0.970) 66. Australia (12.5) 27. Ukraine (1.16) 29. Greece (23 381) 177. Sierra Leone (0.336) 177. Burkina Faso (0.255) 126. Bolivia (168.1) 91. Peru (0.10) 174. Malawi (667)
- 34. D: Scenarios 1 3 2030 2058 Scenarios Possible Probable Possible 2009 2 4
- 35. The Team
- 36. Well World NZ Well Poor Poor Fail Fail Fail
- 39. New Zealand will never be the puppeteer… … but we can be part of the audience, and that means we can decide to give a standing ovation or boo the performance.
- 40. We can show global players how changes should be made – not because they have to listen to us… … but because small countries have put in place something that powerful countries want.
- 41. New Zealand needs a ‘National Strategy’ to optimise our future, to align our industry, to reinforce our national brand and to be an example of what is possible - not because we have to, but because we want what it can deliver
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Importance of thinking creatively – logic will only get us so far. Focus on long-term thinking – it’s hard to think!
- Cabinet decision in 2001 to create an NSDS, but as yet New Zealand does not have one. See SF Report 1: A National Sustainable Development Strategy: How New Zealand Measures Up Against International Commitments (2007) Source (image): Wendy McGuinness
- Think Grey – as in grey matter (brains) – Edward De Bono Analyse the past, design the future Design seeks value Logic – what is? Design – What could be? Perception- What is the context? Importance of Perception: 5 year old boy in Australia, one dollar and two dollar coin, two dollar is smaller. Given a choice between a one or two dollar to keep, the 5 year old always chose the one dollar coin – why – Perception. See Edward De Bono – ‘Think Before its Too Late’ - page 139 Notes Step 1: Gather data Step 2: Discern the patterns in the data in order to transform into info Step 3: Translate into strategic knowledge that can be used to your competitive advantage – to develop a strategy. The strategic thinker finds strategic knowledge in the complex and chaotic data stream of everyday living. Data and info have no value unless acted upon
- Source (text): M. Marien, Future Survey #4, 2008
- Source (text): The Bowkerhouse, retrieved 6 April 2009 from http://bowkerhouse.blogspot.com/2008/04/scale-of-large-numbers-add-salt.html Source (photo): National Communication Network Guyana, retrieved 6 April 2009 from http://www.ncnguyana.com/news/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=22%3Ahow-much-salt-we-eat-two-times-too-much&catid=18&Itemid=1
- The extremes inform the middle over time – see discussion: Future Think – Page 125. As the population grows, as the communication improves – so does the critical mass – this has positive effects (reforms) and negative (terrorism) MAdGE Foreshore and Seabed Manapouri - Damn the Dam: Tiwai Point Aluminium Smelter uses 15% of New Zealand's electricity Sources (images): Bottom Right, Christine Foxall of the Royal Forest and Bird Society, Wellington [ca 3 February 1970] Reference number: EP/1970/0489/26A-F. Bottom Left, MAdGE protest, taken from http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0205/S00052.htm
- We are not alone…..See Sustainable Future’s Think Piece 10, Lost in Space for more initiatives. 1982: Commission for the Future Over 20 publications 6 years 1990-91: Porter Project 2000 participants 2 years 2001: Knowledge Wave 450 participants 3 days 2008: One Measurable Goal 112 comments 3 months 2009: National Job Summit 210 participants 1 day 2007-2010: Project 2058 19 publications 4 years Source (timeline): Sustainable Future (2009).
- Note World Futures Society Note State of New Zealand’s Future – Millennium Project Source (figure): Sustainable Future (2009). Project 2058 Methodology Version 3 . Sustainable Future: Wellington.
- Every generation needs to answer two questions: What is possible and what is acceptable? Its our watch to protect mankind – like in the Gettysburg address - that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion - 1865 The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us – that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion – that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain -- that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom -- and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth. President Abraham Lincoln
- Its not just about numbers, its also about composition Notes: About 1.5 billion in 1900 Implications for food and water – long term global social conflict seems inevitable without serious food and water policies To summarise: the developed countries and China grow old – while Africa and India remains young. Source (text): J.C. Glenn, T. J. Gordon, & E. Florescu (2008). State of the Future 2008. Washington DC: World Federation of United Nations Associations (WFUNA) . Source (images): Wendy McGuinness
- Source (figure): Adapted from Karl Fisch and Scott McLeod (2007). ‘Did You Know 2.0’, retrieved 6 April 2009 from http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMcfrLYDm2U
- Started with 75, took down to 21 – page 51 Distinguish between primary and secondary Source (figure): Sustainable Future (2008). Four Futures for New Zealand in 2058 . Sustainable Future: Wellington.
- Invention is New-; Innovation builds on something or copies something from one policy to another. US/Russia – Apollo-Soyuz Mission – the United States and the Soviet Union conducted the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project, a joint space effort culminating with a linking of the two crafts, in July 1975. Long term implications - Space Junk – now – colliding. 11 Feb 2009: Russian and US satellite collide. Source (image): Wendy McGuinness Source (innovation text): Pensak, D. & Licorish, E., (2008). Innovation for underdogs. Franklin Lakes, NJ: Career Press. Source (Apollo/Soyuz text): http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ho/pubs/fs/85895.htm
- The Bean – Chicago – Millennium Park Source (images): Wendy McGuinness
- Source (image): William Tyrone Power's "Sketches in New Zealand with pen and pencil" (London, 1849), page 51. Alexander Turnbull Library, Reference No.PUBL-0093-051 Notes: For fifty years he has been the feared fighting chief, he has been celebrated for his courage, cleverness, resourcefulness and skill in diplomacy – one of the greatest contemporary leaders in the traditional Maori style - mana
- Source (images): Portrait: Alexander Turnbull Library Reference No. PA1-o-423-11-6, Whare: Alexander Turnbull Library, Reference: PA7-36-24 Notes: Tāwhiao was born at Orongokoekoea Pā (near Taumarunui) during the Musket Wars. His father, Pōtatau Te Wherowhero, was the leader of the Waikato people. In 1858 Pōtatau was installed as the first Māori King, his purpose being to promote unity among the Māori people in the face of Pākehā encroachment.Pōtatau died in 1860 and was succeeded by Tāwhiao who reigned for thirty-four years during one of the most difficult and discouraging periods of Māori history. During this period there were de jure two governments; English law and governance prevailed within the British settlements and Māori law or custom over the rest of the country. However the Pākehā population was increasing rapidly while the Māori population was either static or declining. This was also the period when the British felt they had a manifest destiny to rule the world. The presence of an independent native state was seen by many as intolerable particularly as it occupied most of the territory of the North Island and thus had the potential to undermine the colonial government's sovereignty.In 1863 on very slim pretexts and in defiance of the Treaty of Waitangi the Colonial Government, backed by some fourteen thousand Imperial troops, invaded the Waikato, King Tāwhiao's territory. The Waikato people put up a strong defence but inevitably were forced to retreat. The conquered land was confiscated, altogether about a million acres (4,000 km²).Tāwhiao and his people moved southwards, into the territory of the Ngāti Maniapoto, the area of New Zealand that is still known as the King Country. Retrieved July 2009: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tāwhiao
- Source (text): Dalziel, Vogel. First – page 104, Second – page 113, went to England to float two of the required loans - http://www.adb.online.anu.edu.au/biogs/A060356b.htm He was responsible for the establishment of the Government Life Insurance Office and the Public Trust, thus launching a tradition of state involvement for which New Zealand is noted. http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1O48-VogelSirJulius.html Also- NZ minister to make an official visit to the United States – in this case to establish a regular steamer between NZ and San Franscio – page 116 Sir Julius Vogel, was the 8th Prime Minister of New Zealand.
- Source (data): Statistics New Zealand (2008a). Demographic trends report 2007. Wellington: Statistics New Zealand. Retrieved June 30, 2009 from http://www.stats.govt.nz/analytical-reports/dem-trends-07/downloadable-excel-tables.htm. Years are not spaced regularly. As at June 2009, 2034 claims had been registered with the Waitangi Tribunal. To date, only a few claims have been settled with a total value of about $600 million. Note: the graph has been adjusted to take into consideration the population estimates in 1840 (Belich, 1996:178) Māori people are the tangata whenua (indigenous people) of New Zealand. A Māori is a person who identifies with or feels they belong to the Māori ethnic group (Population and Sustainable Development, 2009). 137 iwi Notes: http://www.stats.govt.nz/tables/maori-popn-est-tables.htm (Maori Population) http://www.stats.govt.nz/default.htm (Total Population) http://www.yafa.com/images/delta/maori/maori_image.jpg (maori Image) 642,900 estimated Maori population for June 2008 4,318,032 New Zealand Total Population as at 8 July 2009
- No big changes - Overseas Experience (OE) Notes: But does this take into account climate refugees? Source (graph): Wikimedia Commons, using figures from Statistics New Zealand, retrieved 6 April 2009 from http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:New_Zealand_population_over_time.png
- It is about composition – By 2058; New Zealand is becoming more diverse. Reduction of 20% in 50 years, with the reduction taken up by Asian, Pacific and Maori in that order. We are getting older. Median age from 36 to 44 years of ag. We are getting bigger. A staggering 63% of New Zealanders are currently overweight or obese Source (graph): Sustainable Future Think Piece 5: Hard Work. Source (data): Statistics NZ (see above Think Piece) But we also have internal changes that we must consider and manage. We have an increasingly culturally diverse society (see Figure 1). Extrapolated out, this means by 2058 we could see a reduction in ‘European and other’ population by 20%, with the reduction being taken up by Asian, Pacific and Maori, in that order. Within this dynamic, we are facing two demographical challenges. Based on the above, we believe New Zealand not only has ‘hard work’ to do, but that the term ‘hard work’ needs to be redefined. As to our location on the evolutionary path, one speaker at the 2008 World Futures Conference discussed the concept that we are entering ‘adolescence’ – with all the trials and tribulations of facing reality. The time when Mother Earth provided abundantly for our inexhaustible wants and needs is now over, and we are learning that it is our time to make hard choices and learn important lessons about our future – which brings me to the point of this Think Piece–the ‘hard work’ ahead. To the rest of the world, New Zealand will increasingly seem to be the bounty in a resource constrained world. New Zealand is a relatively young country, but a relatively old inclusive democracy (New Zealand being amongst the first to adopt Universal Suffrage). We are ‘natural resources’ rich; we have abundant arable land per capita, an extensive coastline, large fishing grounds (EEZ) and territorial sovereignty over an area of Antarctica known as the Ross Sea Region (which is 17 times the size of New Zealand). In short, New Zealand benefits from a small population, and a resource-rich territory. We will further explore our natural resources in a report and Think Piece later this year. To summarise, New Zealand will become increasingly the pearl in the Pacific and the Pacific will increasingly be a sanctuary in a dangerous world. Firstly, we are getting older. Over the next 50 years our population will increase only slightly but we will be living longer, resulting in a significant increase in our median age from 36 to 44 years of age (see Figure 2) Secondly, we are getting bigger. A staggering 63% of New Zealanders are currently overweight or obese (see Figure 3). An unhealthy, aging population is a serious concern, considering that our workforce sits in the top third of the OECD, in terms of average number of hours worked per week.
- Source (table): http://search.stats.govt.nz/nav/ct2/health_lifeexpectancy/ct1/health/0 Source (image): Taken in Washington DC by Wendy McGuinness, of Salvador Dali, The Persistence of Memory 1931
- Source (graph): Adapted from Statistics NZ (2008). New Zealand: An Urban/Rural Profile. p. 11. Retrieved from http://www.stats.govt.nz/NR/rdonlyres/A2FDF8E9-32AD-487D-AEE7-040F513EE777/0/NZUrbanRuralProfile2.pdf Notes: Drift to Auckland http://www.stats.govt.nz/census/census-outputs/quickstats/snapshotplace2.htm?id=1000002&type=region&ParentID= (Auckland) http://www.stats.govt.nz/store/2006/05/subnational-population-estimates-jun03-hotp.htm?page=para003Master (North and South) Auckland * 1,303,068 people usually live in Auckland Region. This is an increase of 144,177 people, or 12.4 percent, since the 2001 Census. Its population ranks 1st in size out of the 16 regions in New Zealand. Auckland Region has 32.4 percent of New Zealand's population. North and South Island population The population of the North Island continues to grow at a faster rate than that of the South Island. An estimated 3,047,900 people lived in the North Island at 30 June 2003, an increase of 56,100 or 1.9 percent from 30 June 2002, while the resident population of the South Island grew by an estimated 14,300 people or 1.5 percent over the same period to reach 961,600 people. These growth differentials led to a further concentration of New Zealand's population in the North Island. At 30 June 2003, the North Island was home to 76.0 percent of New Zealand residents , up from 75.3 percent at 30 June 1996.
- Preservation part of our genetic makeup Total Area of National Parks in New Zealand: 30669 square kilometres / total square area 270467 (United Nations Pocket Book, World Statistics 2008) Source (image): Geoff Spearpoint . C amp at tarn under Mt Zampa, Spenser Mountains, Lewis end 4/07.
- Exports critical and Imports related to exports (tools) Source (exports data): http://www.stats.govt.nz/products-and-services/global-new-zealand/2008/key-points-july08.htm Exp Dairy 22% $8.8 billion and Imp Fuels and oils $7.1 billion (16%) Source (imports data): http://www.stats.govt.nz/products-and-services/global-new-zealand/2008/key-points-july08.htm Source (image): http://www.odt.co.nz/files/story/2008/11/forecasts_are_for_a_much_reduced_export_lamb_crop__5346824854.JPG
- One Big Farm Source (images): Phillip Capper, available as part of the Creative Commons from http://www.flickr.com/photos/flissphil/2494725635/ Source (graph): Sustainable Future (2008). Think Piece 6: While AgResearch Fiddled. Data a dapted from: FAO, CIA, Statistics New Zealand, Dept. for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (UK) & Australian Bureau of Statistics. See ‘Workings for Figure 1’, available for from http://www.sustainablefuture.info/Site/Publications/Think_Pieces.aspx
- Negative effects – increased diary farms
- No energy security problems – can move to non-fossil fuels Source (data): Energy Data File, MED, 2008-2009 – graph from Sustainable Future adapted from MED dataset Energy Data File at: http://www.med.govt.nz/templates/StandardSummary____15169.aspx
- Not just three islands – a lot to manage, many assets Source (map): Adapted from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NZ_Realm_of_New_Zealand.png
- Globalisation is critical for NZ’s future Source (data): Adapted from Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (1997). New Zealand Consolidated Treaty List As At December 1996 . (Part 1: Multilateral Treaties, and Part 2: Bilateral Treaties). Wellington: Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade. First Free Trade agreement with China Created refridgerated transport – 1880s
- Not just the land, but the sea Source (map): Adapted from http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Realm_of_New_Zealand_Exclusive_Economic_Zones.png See also http://www.linz.govt.nz/hydro/projects-programmes/continental-shelf/undersea-image/index.aspx
- NZ not relevant on the world scene – ANZUS treaty 1951 - 1984 Source (image): Available under Creative Commons at http://www.flickr.com/people/111emergency/
- Source (timeline): Adapted from Westpac (2009). ‘ Economic Overview: A quarterly overview of the New Zealand economy,’ January 2009. Retrieved 6 April 2009 from http://www.westpac.co.nz/olcontent/olcontent.nsf/content/FM_Economic_Overview_Q4/$FILE/QEOJan09.pdf Source (image): Reserve Bank of New Zealand, retrieved 06 April from http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2000/0088734-2.gif
- Travelling OK – Disparity of Income biggest issue Source (table): adapted from UNDP, Human Development Report 2007/2008 and 2008 Update, retrieved 6 April 2009 from http://hdrstats.undp.org/indicators/
- Hence the title four ‘possible’ futures Sir Edmund Hillary climbed Everest Timeline - like a accordion Uses climate change an GM to explore the landscape Source (figure): Sustainable Future (2009). Project 2058 Methodology version 3 . Sustainable Future: Wellington. adapted from C. Ilbury & C. Sunter (2001). The Mind of a Fox: Scenario planning in action . Cape Town: Human and Rousseau Tafelberg.
- AIM - NSDS 3 Days – page 55 Confirm 21 global drivers (started with 75) Brainstorm Guided Discussion Revisit Impacts Painted a picture (above) Brain Dump Writing up the results Source (images): Sustainable Future. Scenario Workshop, Waikanae April 2008
- See Hand out Game theory Source (images, clockwise): Photo by David Sim, and available on Flickr as part of Creative Commons http://www.flickr.com/people/victoriapeckham/ Photo by Sandy Austin, and available on Flickr as part of Creative Commons http://www.flickr.com/people/sondyaustin/ Photo by Sandy Austin and available on Flickr as part of Creative Commons http://www.flickr.com/people/sondyaustin/ Photo by Darcy L McCarty and available on Flickr as part of Creative Commons http://www.flickr.com/people/darcym/
- Which future is likely to prevail? p46 What should we be looking for? p47 How can we shape our future? p47 Implications p48-49 United Nations? What is Acceptable? What is Possible? What are the Obstacles? What should we Focus on? Watch for: Fortress Mentality Disparities Leadership/Complacency Privacy/Transparency
- Source (image): Photo by Nelson Minar and available on Flickr as part of Creative Commons http://www.flickr.com/photos/nelsonminar/
- Source (image): Photo by Danny Williams. Available on Flickr as part of the Creative Commons. http:// www.flickr.com/photos/pressthebuttononthetop / / CC BY 2.0
- NEXT STEP – finish the Rese ar ch reports and then write the strategy Source (photo): Getfrank, retrieved 06 April from http://www.getfrank.co.nz/assets/images/Halfwidth/NewFolder/_resampled/ResizedImage429295-nz.jpg ======================================================================================================================
- Source (photo): retrieved 6 April 2009 from http://farm1.static.flickr.com/52/108605088_71856b2fb7.jpg?v=0