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Uncertainty overshadows
improving economy
Jason Fuchs
Financial Advisor
Wells Fargo Advisors

July 2012

Please see slides 28 and 29 for important
disclaimers.
Investment Strategy Committee


 Economy                  U.S. equities            Fixed income          International




Gary Thayer              Stuart Freeman, CFA       Brian Rehling, CFA   Paul Christopher,CFA
Chief Macro Strategist   Chief Equity Strategist   Chief Fixed Income   Chief International
                                                   Strategist           Strategist
What does all the uncertainty
mean for the economy?
You have questions

How is the recovery going?   Sluggish recovery should
                             continue.

What’s ahead for GDP         We expect modest growth
and inflation?               and benign inflation.

What challenges may          Europe, presidential
be ahead?                    election and debt ceiling
                             debate may feed volatility.




                                                           4
Economic outlook

The recovery remains subpar
      (%)




Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Economic outlook

A debt-ceiling battle looms
    (%)




Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Amid the volatility, where
does the stock market go from
here?
You have questions

Where is the stock      We believe the S&P 500
market heading?         will end the year higher
                        than it is today.

Will small-cap stocks   We favor large-cap stocks
perform better than     versus small cap.
large cap?

What sectors look the   Cyclically sensitive stocks
most attractive?        should perform well in the
                        coming months.


                                                      8
U.S. equities outlook

S&P 500 should end the year higher

 Market’s performance has been “choppy.”

 Sideways movement is not unusual.

 We raised our year-end S&P 500 target range.




                                                 9
U.S. equities outlook

Small caps should underperform
           (%)




Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
U.S. equities outlook

Cyclically sensitive stocks should outperform
defensive
Equity sectors – recommended portfolio weightings
As of June 8, 2012

                 % of                                   % of                                  % of
 Overweight      S&P 500     Guidance     Evenweight    S&P 500   Guidance   Underweight      S&P 500       Guidance
 Consumer        11.2%       13.3%        Consumer      11.4%     11.0%      Energy           10.7%         10.2%
 Discret.                                 Staples
                                                                             Financials       14.2%         12.7%
 Info. Tech.     19.9%       23.5%        Industrials   10.4%     10.5%
                                                                             H                11.8%         9.8%

 Materials       3.4%        5.0%

 Telecom.        3.2%        4.0%


Note: Weightings may not add to 100% due to rounding.                             Source: Bloomberg, Wells Fargo Advisors




                                                                             Utilities        3.8%          0.0%
Are higher interest rates
around the corner?
You have questions

Will interest rates      We believe interest rates
increase?                will remain historically low
                         in the coming months.

What will the Federal    With Operation Twist
Reserve do?              extended – the Fed stands
                         ready to do more if needed.

Where are the            We recommend credit-
opportunities in fixed   sensitive sectors for longer-
income?                  term investors.


                                                         13
Fixed income outlook

 Interest rates should remain low
  Yield




                                                      Source: Bloomberg, Wells Fargo Advisors




Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Fixed income outlook

What will the Federal Reserve do?
•Since the recession, the Fed has instituted:
   • Two rounds of quantitative easing
   • Operation Twist

•Operation Twist extended through year-end – should help
keep longer rates contained.

•We don’t see need for further quanitative easing at this point.

•Situation may change.

•May see QE3 announced if the economic situation deteriorates.
Fixed income outlook

Recommended portfolio weightings
As of May 10, 2012, unless otherwise noted




Fixed income
                                   Slight                                            Slight
  Overweight                       overweight              Evenweight                underweight               Underweight               Duration

  Corporate bonds                  Muncipal bonds          Agency securities         Treasury                  International             Slightly short*
                                                                                     Inflation-                developed-
                                                                                     Protected                 market debt
                                                                                     Securities
  Emerging-market debt             Preferred               High-yield                                          U.S. Treasuries
                                   securities              securities


                                                           Mortgage-backed
                                                                       sec
                                                                       urit
                                                                       ies

 *We recommend a duration slightly short of an investor’s target duration. If an investor does not have a target duration, then we recommend a duration
 of approximately 4.25 years in taxable portfolios, and 6.75 years for tax-exempt portfolios. Duration, stated in years, can be used to estimate the
 percentage change in a bond’s value that results from a 1% change in interest rates. The longer (higher) the duration, the more prices will fluctuate as
 interest rates rise and fall.
What lies ahead for
international investments?
You have questions

What will happen in          Europe should avoid the
Europe?                      worst-case scenario.

Is the global economic       Slowdown should end in
slowdown coming to           the coming months.
an end?

Are there opportunities in   Although cautious, we see
international investments?   good prospects in
                             international investments.




                                                          18
International outlook

Europe is key
•European crisis remains principal risk to global
confidence.

•We believe euro-zone leaders will work to address
the:
   • Union’s immediate financial problems
   • Need for long-term economic growth

•China’s economy is growing but slower than expected.

•Iran continues to create tension, but we don’t
anticipate war.
International outlook

Global slowdown may be ending
12-month growth rates




                                                                                                                                           3/12

                            OECD leading indicators*
                            OECD industrial production*

                                                                                                           Source: Bloomberg, Wells Fargo Advisors



      * Data are the composite totals for the countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
International outlook

Opportunities in international investments


 Equities                              Sovereign debt   Currencies              Commodities


 Japan1                                Canada1          Japan1                  Energy

 Indonesia2                            Australia1       Emerging Asia basket2   Gold

 Malaysia2                             New Zealand1

 Mexico2


 Norway


 1
     Developed international markets                                            Source: Wells Fargo Advisors
 2
     Emerging international markets
What does it all mean?
Economic and market review
                                               Forecasts
                                                Year-end 2012




 The slow economic recovery should     2.5%
  continue.                             Real GDP


 Inflation should remain in check.     2.5%
                                        CPI inflation


 Unemployment is likely to             8.0%
  remain high.                          Unemployment

 The stock market should go up – but   1,400-1,450
  at a moderate rate.                   S&P 500

 Interest rates should remain low.     2.50%
                                        10-year Treasury yield
What should you do?
The Envision process                 ®




Working toward your goals




               73               74                75               76                77               78




   The Envision process uses Monte Carlo simulations, which are based on historical and hypothetical information; there is
   no guarantee that investments will perform in accordance with the simulated trials.


The Target Zone may help you evaluate your Recommended Plan. It does not represent a projection of
future portfolio values. The Target Zone graph is shown in actual dollars, the Envision technology uses
Monte Carlo simulations, which are based on historical and hypothetical information; there is no guarantee
that actual future investments will perform in accordance with the simulated trials.
Important disclaimers
IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by the Envision process technology regarding the
likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and
are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary with each use and over time.

Envision methodology:
Based on accepted statistical methods, the Envision tool uses a simulation model to test your Ideal, Acceptable
and Recommended Investment Plans. The simulation model uses assumptions about inflation, financial market
returns and the relationships among these variables. These assumptions were derived from analysis of historical
data. Using Monte Carlo simulation the Envision tool simulates 1,000 different potential outcomes over a lifetime
of investing varying historical risk, return, and correlation amongst the assets. Some of these scenarios will
assume strong financial market returns, similar to the best periods of history for investors. Other will be similar to
the worst periods in investing history. Most scenarios will fall somewhere in between. Envision ® is a registered
service mark of Wells Fargo & Company and used under license. Elements of the Envision presentations and
simulation results are under license from Wealthcare Capital Management, Inc. & Wealthcare Capital Management
IP, LLC © 2002-2012 Wealthcare Capital Management, Inc. & Wealthcare Capital Management IP, LLC - U.S.
Patents 7,562,040, 7,650,303, 7,765,138 and 7,991,675 - Other international patents approved and pending. All
Rights Reserved. Wealthcare Capital Management, Inc. & Wealthcare Capital Management IP, LLC are separate
entities and are not directly affiliated with Wells Fargo Advisors.
How can I help?
Important disclaimers
 Past performance is not an indication of future results.
 An index is not managed and is unavailable for direct investment.
 Investing in foreign securities presents certain risks not associated with domestic investments, such as
 currency fluctuations, political and economic instability, and different accounting standards. This may
 result in greater share price volatility.
 The prices of small- and mid-cap company stocks are generally more volatile than large-company stocks.
 They often involve higher risks because smaller companies may lack the management expertise, financial
 resources, product diversification and competitive strengths to endure adverse economic conditions.
 Investing in fixed income securities involves certain risks such as market risk if sold prior to maturity and
 credit risk especially if investing in high yield bonds, which have lower ratings and are subject to greater
 volatility. All fixed income investments may be worth less than original cost upon redemption or maturity.
 Income from municipal securities is generally free from federal taxes and state taxes for residents of the
 issuing state. While the interest income is tax-free, capital gains, if any, will be subject to taxes. Income
 for some investors may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax (AMT).
 Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest-rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can
 result in the decline of the value of your investment.
Important disclaimers
 While stocks generally have a greater potential return than government bonds and Treasury securities,
 they involve a higher degree of risk. Government bonds and Treasury bills, unlike stocks, are guaranteed
 as to payment of principal and interest by the U.S. government if held to maturity. Although Treasuries
 are considered free from credit risk, they are subject to other types of risks. These risks include interest
 rate risk, which may cause the underlying value of the bond to fluctuate inversely to a change in interest
 rates.
 Buying commodities allows for a source of diversification for those sophisticated persons who wish to add
 commodities to their portfolios and who are prepared to assume the risks inherent in the commodities
 market. Any purchase represents a transaction in a non-income-producing commodity and is highly
 speculative. Therefore, commodities should not represent a significant portion of an individual’s portfolio.
 Buying gold, silver, platinum or palladium allows for a source of diversification for those sophisticated
 persons who wish to add precious metals to their portfolios and who are prepared to assume the risks
 inherent in the bullion market. Any bullion or coin purchase represents a transaction in a non-income-
 producing commodity and is highly speculative. Therefore, precious metals should not represent a
 significant portion of an individual’s portfolio.
 Wells Fargo Advisors may not offer direct investments into the products mentioned in this presentation.
 There is no assurance that any of the target prices mentioned will be attained. Any market prices are only
 indications of market values and are subject to change.
 Investments that are concentrated in a specific sector or industry may be subject to a higher degree of
 market risk than investments that are more diversified.
 High-yield bonds, also known as junk bonds, are subject to greater risk of loss of principal and interest,
 including default risk, than higher-rated bonds. The prices of these bonds may be volatile , and they are
 generally only suitable for aggressive investors.
Securities and insurance Products:

      NOT INSURED BY FDIC OR ANY              MAY LOSE        NOT A DEPOSIT OF OR GUARANTEED
     FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY                 VALUE          BY A BANK OR ANY BANK AFFILIATE

Wells Fargo Advisors is the trade name used by two separate, registered broker-dealers: Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC and Wells
Fargo Advisors Financial Network, LLC, Members SIPC, non-bank affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company.




     © 2012 Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved. 0612-1427A [89172-v1] e7173

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2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlook

  • 1. Uncertainty overshadows improving economy Jason Fuchs Financial Advisor Wells Fargo Advisors July 2012 Please see slides 28 and 29 for important disclaimers.
  • 2. Investment Strategy Committee Economy U.S. equities Fixed income International Gary Thayer Stuart Freeman, CFA Brian Rehling, CFA Paul Christopher,CFA Chief Macro Strategist Chief Equity Strategist Chief Fixed Income Chief International Strategist Strategist
  • 3. What does all the uncertainty mean for the economy?
  • 4. You have questions How is the recovery going? Sluggish recovery should continue. What’s ahead for GDP We expect modest growth and inflation? and benign inflation. What challenges may Europe, presidential be ahead? election and debt ceiling debate may feed volatility. 4
  • 5. Economic outlook The recovery remains subpar (%) Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
  • 6. Economic outlook A debt-ceiling battle looms (%) Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
  • 7. Amid the volatility, where does the stock market go from here?
  • 8. You have questions Where is the stock We believe the S&P 500 market heading? will end the year higher than it is today. Will small-cap stocks We favor large-cap stocks perform better than versus small cap. large cap? What sectors look the Cyclically sensitive stocks most attractive? should perform well in the coming months. 8
  • 9. U.S. equities outlook S&P 500 should end the year higher  Market’s performance has been “choppy.”  Sideways movement is not unusual.  We raised our year-end S&P 500 target range. 9
  • 10. U.S. equities outlook Small caps should underperform (%) Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
  • 11. U.S. equities outlook Cyclically sensitive stocks should outperform defensive Equity sectors – recommended portfolio weightings As of June 8, 2012 % of % of % of Overweight S&P 500 Guidance Evenweight S&P 500 Guidance Underweight S&P 500 Guidance Consumer 11.2% 13.3% Consumer 11.4% 11.0% Energy 10.7% 10.2% Discret. Staples Financials 14.2% 12.7% Info. Tech. 19.9% 23.5% Industrials 10.4% 10.5% H 11.8% 9.8% Materials 3.4% 5.0% Telecom. 3.2% 4.0% Note: Weightings may not add to 100% due to rounding. Source: Bloomberg, Wells Fargo Advisors Utilities 3.8% 0.0%
  • 12. Are higher interest rates around the corner?
  • 13. You have questions Will interest rates We believe interest rates increase? will remain historically low in the coming months. What will the Federal With Operation Twist Reserve do? extended – the Fed stands ready to do more if needed. Where are the We recommend credit- opportunities in fixed sensitive sectors for longer- income? term investors. 13
  • 14. Fixed income outlook Interest rates should remain low Yield Source: Bloomberg, Wells Fargo Advisors Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
  • 15. Fixed income outlook What will the Federal Reserve do? •Since the recession, the Fed has instituted: • Two rounds of quantitative easing • Operation Twist •Operation Twist extended through year-end – should help keep longer rates contained. •We don’t see need for further quanitative easing at this point. •Situation may change. •May see QE3 announced if the economic situation deteriorates.
  • 16. Fixed income outlook Recommended portfolio weightings As of May 10, 2012, unless otherwise noted Fixed income Slight Slight Overweight overweight Evenweight underweight Underweight Duration Corporate bonds Muncipal bonds Agency securities Treasury International Slightly short* Inflation- developed- Protected market debt Securities Emerging-market debt Preferred High-yield U.S. Treasuries securities securities Mortgage-backed sec urit ies *We recommend a duration slightly short of an investor’s target duration. If an investor does not have a target duration, then we recommend a duration of approximately 4.25 years in taxable portfolios, and 6.75 years for tax-exempt portfolios. Duration, stated in years, can be used to estimate the percentage change in a bond’s value that results from a 1% change in interest rates. The longer (higher) the duration, the more prices will fluctuate as interest rates rise and fall.
  • 17. What lies ahead for international investments?
  • 18. You have questions What will happen in Europe should avoid the Europe? worst-case scenario. Is the global economic Slowdown should end in slowdown coming to the coming months. an end? Are there opportunities in Although cautious, we see international investments? good prospects in international investments. 18
  • 19. International outlook Europe is key •European crisis remains principal risk to global confidence. •We believe euro-zone leaders will work to address the: • Union’s immediate financial problems • Need for long-term economic growth •China’s economy is growing but slower than expected. •Iran continues to create tension, but we don’t anticipate war.
  • 20. International outlook Global slowdown may be ending 12-month growth rates 3/12 OECD leading indicators* OECD industrial production* Source: Bloomberg, Wells Fargo Advisors * Data are the composite totals for the countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
  • 21. International outlook Opportunities in international investments Equities Sovereign debt Currencies Commodities Japan1 Canada1 Japan1 Energy Indonesia2 Australia1 Emerging Asia basket2 Gold Malaysia2 New Zealand1 Mexico2 Norway 1 Developed international markets Source: Wells Fargo Advisors 2 Emerging international markets
  • 22. What does it all mean?
  • 23. Economic and market review Forecasts Year-end 2012  The slow economic recovery should 2.5% continue. Real GDP  Inflation should remain in check. 2.5% CPI inflation  Unemployment is likely to 8.0% remain high. Unemployment  The stock market should go up – but 1,400-1,450 at a moderate rate. S&P 500  Interest rates should remain low. 2.50% 10-year Treasury yield
  • 25. The Envision process ® Working toward your goals 73 74 75 76 77 78 The Envision process uses Monte Carlo simulations, which are based on historical and hypothetical information; there is no guarantee that investments will perform in accordance with the simulated trials. The Target Zone may help you evaluate your Recommended Plan. It does not represent a projection of future portfolio values. The Target Zone graph is shown in actual dollars, the Envision technology uses Monte Carlo simulations, which are based on historical and hypothetical information; there is no guarantee that actual future investments will perform in accordance with the simulated trials.
  • 26. Important disclaimers IMPORTANT: The projections or other information generated by the Envision process technology regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary with each use and over time. Envision methodology: Based on accepted statistical methods, the Envision tool uses a simulation model to test your Ideal, Acceptable and Recommended Investment Plans. The simulation model uses assumptions about inflation, financial market returns and the relationships among these variables. These assumptions were derived from analysis of historical data. Using Monte Carlo simulation the Envision tool simulates 1,000 different potential outcomes over a lifetime of investing varying historical risk, return, and correlation amongst the assets. Some of these scenarios will assume strong financial market returns, similar to the best periods of history for investors. Other will be similar to the worst periods in investing history. Most scenarios will fall somewhere in between. Envision ® is a registered service mark of Wells Fargo & Company and used under license. Elements of the Envision presentations and simulation results are under license from Wealthcare Capital Management, Inc. & Wealthcare Capital Management IP, LLC © 2002-2012 Wealthcare Capital Management, Inc. & Wealthcare Capital Management IP, LLC - U.S. Patents 7,562,040, 7,650,303, 7,765,138 and 7,991,675 - Other international patents approved and pending. All Rights Reserved. Wealthcare Capital Management, Inc. & Wealthcare Capital Management IP, LLC are separate entities and are not directly affiliated with Wells Fargo Advisors.
  • 27. How can I help?
  • 28. Important disclaimers Past performance is not an indication of future results. An index is not managed and is unavailable for direct investment. Investing in foreign securities presents certain risks not associated with domestic investments, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability, and different accounting standards. This may result in greater share price volatility. The prices of small- and mid-cap company stocks are generally more volatile than large-company stocks. They often involve higher risks because smaller companies may lack the management expertise, financial resources, product diversification and competitive strengths to endure adverse economic conditions. Investing in fixed income securities involves certain risks such as market risk if sold prior to maturity and credit risk especially if investing in high yield bonds, which have lower ratings and are subject to greater volatility. All fixed income investments may be worth less than original cost upon redemption or maturity. Income from municipal securities is generally free from federal taxes and state taxes for residents of the issuing state. While the interest income is tax-free, capital gains, if any, will be subject to taxes. Income for some investors may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax (AMT). Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest-rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can result in the decline of the value of your investment.
  • 29. Important disclaimers While stocks generally have a greater potential return than government bonds and Treasury securities, they involve a higher degree of risk. Government bonds and Treasury bills, unlike stocks, are guaranteed as to payment of principal and interest by the U.S. government if held to maturity. Although Treasuries are considered free from credit risk, they are subject to other types of risks. These risks include interest rate risk, which may cause the underlying value of the bond to fluctuate inversely to a change in interest rates. Buying commodities allows for a source of diversification for those sophisticated persons who wish to add commodities to their portfolios and who are prepared to assume the risks inherent in the commodities market. Any purchase represents a transaction in a non-income-producing commodity and is highly speculative. Therefore, commodities should not represent a significant portion of an individual’s portfolio. Buying gold, silver, platinum or palladium allows for a source of diversification for those sophisticated persons who wish to add precious metals to their portfolios and who are prepared to assume the risks inherent in the bullion market. Any bullion or coin purchase represents a transaction in a non-income- producing commodity and is highly speculative. Therefore, precious metals should not represent a significant portion of an individual’s portfolio. Wells Fargo Advisors may not offer direct investments into the products mentioned in this presentation. There is no assurance that any of the target prices mentioned will be attained. Any market prices are only indications of market values and are subject to change. Investments that are concentrated in a specific sector or industry may be subject to a higher degree of market risk than investments that are more diversified. High-yield bonds, also known as junk bonds, are subject to greater risk of loss of principal and interest, including default risk, than higher-rated bonds. The prices of these bonds may be volatile , and they are generally only suitable for aggressive investors.
  • 30. Securities and insurance Products: NOT INSURED BY FDIC OR ANY MAY LOSE NOT A DEPOSIT OF OR GUARANTEED FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY VALUE BY A BANK OR ANY BANK AFFILIATE Wells Fargo Advisors is the trade name used by two separate, registered broker-dealers: Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC and Wells Fargo Advisors Financial Network, LLC, Members SIPC, non-bank affiliates of Wells Fargo & Company. © 2012 Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved. 0612-1427A [89172-v1] e7173