Uncertainty overshadows an improving economy. The economy continues to recover from the worse downturn since the Great Depression, which caused the S&P 500 to lose more than 1/2 of its value between October 2007 and March 2009. Although things are better now, this recovery has taken longer than many of us would have liked. As a result, I think we\’re still at least a little nervous about the future and uncertain about how to prepare our portfolios to face what may be down the road. In this presentation, I discuss what we at Wells Fargo Advisors see ahead for the economy, the domestic and international equity markets, fixed income investments, and commodities.
2. Investment Strategy Committee
Economy U.S. equities Fixed income International
Gary Thayer Stuart Freeman, CFA Brian Rehling, CFA Paul Christopher,CFA
Chief Macro Strategist Chief Equity Strategist Chief Fixed Income Chief International
Strategist Strategist
4. You have questions
How is the recovery going? Sluggish recovery should
continue.
What’s ahead for GDP We expect modest growth
and inflation? and benign inflation.
What challenges may Europe, presidential
be ahead? election and debt ceiling
debate may feed volatility.
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8. You have questions
Where is the stock We believe the S&P 500
market heading? will end the year higher
than it is today.
Will small-cap stocks We favor large-cap stocks
perform better than versus small cap.
large cap?
What sectors look the Cyclically sensitive stocks
most attractive? should perform well in the
coming months.
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9. U.S. equities outlook
S&P 500 should end the year higher
Market’s performance has been “choppy.”
Sideways movement is not unusual.
We raised our year-end S&P 500 target range.
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10. U.S. equities outlook
Small caps should underperform
(%)
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
11. U.S. equities outlook
Cyclically sensitive stocks should outperform
defensive
Equity sectors – recommended portfolio weightings
As of June 8, 2012
% of % of % of
Overweight S&P 500 Guidance Evenweight S&P 500 Guidance Underweight S&P 500 Guidance
Consumer 11.2% 13.3% Consumer 11.4% 11.0% Energy 10.7% 10.2%
Discret. Staples
Financials 14.2% 12.7%
Info. Tech. 19.9% 23.5% Industrials 10.4% 10.5%
H 11.8% 9.8%
Materials 3.4% 5.0%
Telecom. 3.2% 4.0%
Note: Weightings may not add to 100% due to rounding. Source: Bloomberg, Wells Fargo Advisors
Utilities 3.8% 0.0%
13. You have questions
Will interest rates We believe interest rates
increase? will remain historically low
in the coming months.
What will the Federal With Operation Twist
Reserve do? extended – the Fed stands
ready to do more if needed.
Where are the We recommend credit-
opportunities in fixed sensitive sectors for longer-
income? term investors.
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14. Fixed income outlook
Interest rates should remain low
Yield
Source: Bloomberg, Wells Fargo Advisors
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
15. Fixed income outlook
What will the Federal Reserve do?
•Since the recession, the Fed has instituted:
• Two rounds of quantitative easing
• Operation Twist
•Operation Twist extended through year-end – should help
keep longer rates contained.
•We don’t see need for further quanitative easing at this point.
•Situation may change.
•May see QE3 announced if the economic situation deteriorates.
16. Fixed income outlook
Recommended portfolio weightings
As of May 10, 2012, unless otherwise noted
Fixed income
Slight Slight
Overweight overweight Evenweight underweight Underweight Duration
Corporate bonds Muncipal bonds Agency securities Treasury International Slightly short*
Inflation- developed-
Protected market debt
Securities
Emerging-market debt Preferred High-yield U.S. Treasuries
securities securities
Mortgage-backed
sec
urit
ies
*We recommend a duration slightly short of an investor’s target duration. If an investor does not have a target duration, then we recommend a duration
of approximately 4.25 years in taxable portfolios, and 6.75 years for tax-exempt portfolios. Duration, stated in years, can be used to estimate the
percentage change in a bond’s value that results from a 1% change in interest rates. The longer (higher) the duration, the more prices will fluctuate as
interest rates rise and fall.
18. You have questions
What will happen in Europe should avoid the
Europe? worst-case scenario.
Is the global economic Slowdown should end in
slowdown coming to the coming months.
an end?
Are there opportunities in Although cautious, we see
international investments? good prospects in
international investments.
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19. International outlook
Europe is key
•European crisis remains principal risk to global
confidence.
•We believe euro-zone leaders will work to address
the:
• Union’s immediate financial problems
• Need for long-term economic growth
•China’s economy is growing but slower than expected.
•Iran continues to create tension, but we don’t
anticipate war.
20. International outlook
Global slowdown may be ending
12-month growth rates
3/12
OECD leading indicators*
OECD industrial production*
Source: Bloomberg, Wells Fargo Advisors
* Data are the composite totals for the countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
21. International outlook
Opportunities in international investments
Equities Sovereign debt Currencies Commodities
Japan1 Canada1 Japan1 Energy
Indonesia2 Australia1 Emerging Asia basket2 Gold
Malaysia2 New Zealand1
Mexico2
Norway
1
Developed international markets Source: Wells Fargo Advisors
2
Emerging international markets
23. Economic and market review
Forecasts
Year-end 2012
The slow economic recovery should 2.5%
continue. Real GDP
Inflation should remain in check. 2.5%
CPI inflation
Unemployment is likely to 8.0%
remain high. Unemployment
The stock market should go up – but 1,400-1,450
at a moderate rate. S&P 500
Interest rates should remain low. 2.50%
10-year Treasury yield
25. The Envision process ®
Working toward your goals
73 74 75 76 77 78
The Envision process uses Monte Carlo simulations, which are based on historical and hypothetical information; there is
no guarantee that investments will perform in accordance with the simulated trials.
The Target Zone may help you evaluate your Recommended Plan. It does not represent a projection of
future portfolio values. The Target Zone graph is shown in actual dollars, the Envision technology uses
Monte Carlo simulations, which are based on historical and hypothetical information; there is no guarantee
that actual future investments will perform in accordance with the simulated trials.
28. Important disclaimers
Past performance is not an indication of future results.
An index is not managed and is unavailable for direct investment.
Investing in foreign securities presents certain risks not associated with domestic investments, such as
currency fluctuations, political and economic instability, and different accounting standards. This may
result in greater share price volatility.
The prices of small- and mid-cap company stocks are generally more volatile than large-company stocks.
They often involve higher risks because smaller companies may lack the management expertise, financial
resources, product diversification and competitive strengths to endure adverse economic conditions.
Investing in fixed income securities involves certain risks such as market risk if sold prior to maturity and
credit risk especially if investing in high yield bonds, which have lower ratings and are subject to greater
volatility. All fixed income investments may be worth less than original cost upon redemption or maturity.
Income from municipal securities is generally free from federal taxes and state taxes for residents of the
issuing state. While the interest income is tax-free, capital gains, if any, will be subject to taxes. Income
for some investors may be subject to the federal alternative minimum tax (AMT).
Bond prices fluctuate inversely to changes in interest-rates. Therefore, a general rise in interest rates can
result in the decline of the value of your investment.
29. Important disclaimers
While stocks generally have a greater potential return than government bonds and Treasury securities,
they involve a higher degree of risk. Government bonds and Treasury bills, unlike stocks, are guaranteed
as to payment of principal and interest by the U.S. government if held to maturity. Although Treasuries
are considered free from credit risk, they are subject to other types of risks. These risks include interest
rate risk, which may cause the underlying value of the bond to fluctuate inversely to a change in interest
rates.
Buying commodities allows for a source of diversification for those sophisticated persons who wish to add
commodities to their portfolios and who are prepared to assume the risks inherent in the commodities
market. Any purchase represents a transaction in a non-income-producing commodity and is highly
speculative. Therefore, commodities should not represent a significant portion of an individual’s portfolio.
Buying gold, silver, platinum or palladium allows for a source of diversification for those sophisticated
persons who wish to add precious metals to their portfolios and who are prepared to assume the risks
inherent in the bullion market. Any bullion or coin purchase represents a transaction in a non-income-
producing commodity and is highly speculative. Therefore, precious metals should not represent a
significant portion of an individual’s portfolio.
Wells Fargo Advisors may not offer direct investments into the products mentioned in this presentation.
There is no assurance that any of the target prices mentioned will be attained. Any market prices are only
indications of market values and are subject to change.
Investments that are concentrated in a specific sector or industry may be subject to a higher degree of
market risk than investments that are more diversified.
High-yield bonds, also known as junk bonds, are subject to greater risk of loss of principal and interest,
including default risk, than higher-rated bonds. The prices of these bonds may be volatile , and they are
generally only suitable for aggressive investors.